5 a vanlatesteijn

Dr. Henk C. van Latesteijn

Are FDI’s by Arab Countries really needed for food security?

The background

Global food requirements in 2050

‘Scenarios’ Biomass (109 tons GE)

Current 7

2050: food and feed 12

2050: + 10% of global energy supply

17

2050: + all citizens a European diet

23

Countries Type of growth

Poor Population growth

More food

Middle-income

Economic growth

More feed and feedstock

Rich Biobased economy

More feedstock

GE = Grain Equivalents

Food security = risk management

Global trade Optimize comparative advantages FDI’s Expand production base Metropolitan agriculture Production and access in urban areas Yield gap closure Unlock nature’s potential in rural regions

1

2

3

4

Global trade: vegetables

exports

imports

Source: worldmapper.org

1

Global trade: dairy

exports

imports

Source: worldmapper.org

1

Global FDI’s in Agriculture 2

Source: UNCTAD, 2009

Metropolitan agriculture 3

COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE

ORGANIC & ENVIRONMENTA

L CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE

METROPOLITAN AGRICULTURE

URBAN AGRICULTURE

Sustainable Intensification

Sustainable Diversification

Sustainable Re-valuation

Metropolitan agriculture and food security 3

Production

Access

Improve local productivity

YIELD GAP CLOSURE

4

Source: Van Ittersum & Rabbinge, 1997

Why technical potentials are not easily realised

Producers maximize profit, not yield Less favoured areas have higher input-

output price ratios Closing yield gaps requires research effort Depletion of fossil fuels and phosphate

rock raises input prices

Supply becomes tight long before technical potentials have been exhausted

4

Global Yield Gap Atlas 4

Source: Boogaard et al. (in prep.)

Lacking Data 4

Source: Boogaard et al. (in prep.)

Conclusions

Food security asks for production increase

Different pathways are available Food security = risk management Don’t put all your eggs in one

basket Invest in different options

Thank you