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Dr. Henk C. van Latesteijn Are FDI’s by Arab Countries really needed for food security?

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Dr. Henk C. van Latesteijn

Are FDI’s by Arab Countries really needed for food security?

The background

Global food requirements in 2050

‘Scenarios’ Biomass (109 tons GE)

Current 7

2050: food and feed 12

2050: + 10% of global energy supply

2050: + all citizens a European diet

Countries Type of growth

Poor Population growth

More food

Middle-income

Economic growth

More feed and feedstock

Rich Biobased economy

More feedstock

GE = Grain Equivalents

Food security = risk management

Global trade Optimize comparative advantages FDI’s Expand production base Metropolitan agriculture Production and access in urban areas Yield gap closure Unlock nature’s potential in rural regions

Global trade: vegetables

exports

imports

Source: worldmapper.org

Global trade: dairy

exports

imports

Source: worldmapper.org

Global FDI’s in Agriculture 2

Source: UNCTAD, 2009

Metropolitan agriculture 3

COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE

ORGANIC & ENVIRONMENTA

L CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE

METROPOLITAN AGRICULTURE

URBAN AGRICULTURE

Sustainable Intensification

Sustainable Diversification

Sustainable Re-valuation

Metropolitan agriculture and food security 3

Production

Access

Improve local productivity

YIELD GAP CLOSURE

Source: Van Ittersum & Rabbinge, 1997

Why technical potentials are not easily realised

Producers maximize profit, not yield Less favoured areas have higher input-

output price ratios Closing yield gaps requires research effort Depletion of fossil fuels and phosphate

rock raises input prices

Supply becomes tight long before technical potentials have been exhausted

Global Yield Gap Atlas 4

Source: Boogaard et al. (in prep.)

Lacking Data 4

Source: Boogaard et al. (in prep.)

Conclusions

Food security asks for production increase

Different pathways are available Food security = risk management Don’t put all your eggs in one

basket Invest in different options

Thank you

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