2016 summer preparedness - government of new york · 2016 summer preparedness may, 2016. 2 2016...

2016 Summer Preparedness

May, 2016

2

2016 Summer Preparedness

New York State

Electric System

Preparedness

3

Historical Actual, Normal, & Forecast – Summer Peak(MW)

Source: NYISO

4

2016 Summer Capability

2015 2016

Installed Generation Capacity 39,039 38,535

Demand Response – Special Case Resources (SCRs) 1,124 1,248

Total NY Control Area (NYCA) Internal Capability 40,163 39,783

Net Firm Purchase Imports 1,446 1,769

Total Capability 41,610 41,552

Source: NYISO

5

NYS Peak Demand and Installed Reserve Margin

Forecast

Demand Forecast 33,360 MW

17.5% Required Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) 5,838 MW

Total Capability Requirement 39,198 MW

Total Capability This Summer 41,552 MW

Surplus (Capability Above Requirement) 2,354 MW

Capability Versus Demand Forecast (%) 124.6%

Source: NYISO

6

Con Edison: Load Relief Programs

DLRP – Distribution Load Relief Program

CSRP – Commercial System Relief Program

DLC – Direct Load Control Program

232 229

209

175

200

232 236

0

45

8670

147137

194

38 35 35 36 31 32 28

-25

25

75

125

175

225

275

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Enro

llme

nt

(MW

)

DLRP

CSRP

DLC

7

Utility Transmission and Distribution Systems Preparedness

• Surveys - Discussed responses to preparedness survey with each utility

• Work - All planned reinforcements, inspections, and repairs are or will be

completed

• Spares - Each utility has adequate spare equipment on hand

• Planned Outages - Major generator and transmission planned outages require

NYISO approval, and are avoided during peak periods

• Meeting Demand - Each utility expects to meet peak demand with all lines and

generators in service

• Meeting Criteria - Each meets NPCC and NYSRC operating criteria

• Mitigation – NYISO and each utility have operating procedures to mitigate

reliability issues

8

2016 Summer Preparedness

New York State

Electric Portfolio, Volatility,

and Supply Price Outlook

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Co

eff

icie

nt

of

Vari

ati

on

NYISO Spot Market vs.Utility Full Service Residential

Customer Supply Portfolio Volatility (Statewide 12-month rolling average)

Portfolio Market

10

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Statewide - Mark to Market New Contract History

(% of Total Supply Costs)

New Contracts Cumulative New Contracts

11

68%

21%

3%8%

New York State Electric Supply PortfolioFull Service Residential

(Summer 2016)

Fixed Price Market Price

Unhedged Generation Index Price

12

NY West LBMP ($/MWH)

NY Hudson Valley LBMP ($/MWH)

New York City LBMP ($/MWH)

$29.84

$28.63

$30.53

$27.09

$28.34

$29.63

$32.93

$36.45

$38.61

Average Energy Price ComparisonSummer Season

NYMEX Futures June-September, 2015Spot Market June-September, 2015NYMEX Futures June-September, 2016

13

$4.15

$10.99

$8.25

$3.62

$5.30

$15.50

$8.50

$3.50

Long Island

NYC Capacity Zone

New Capacity Zone

Rest of State

Summer Strip Auction Capacity Prices

($ per kW-month)

2015 2016

14

0

1

2

3

4

0.6 0.8 0.6 0.70.4 0.1

0.41.0

1.0 0.6

0.30.4

1.0 1.0

0.50.6 1.0

0.70.9

1.3

1.6

1.40.5 0.4

0.2 0.2 0.1

0.02

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.3

Co

st

($ B

illio

ns)

Year

NYCA Capacity Costs 2006-2015

LI

NYC

NCZ

ROS

*Capacity computations performed by DPS Staff using published NYISO Capacity Auction results** All Capacity is priced at market prices; note that bilateral contract prices may differ from current market prices*** Costs jumped from 2012 through 2014 due to ~2,000MW in retirements and increases in peak load forecasts**** 2015 prices declined as there was nearly 1GW more supply vs the 2014 Gold Book.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

15

12.4 13.4 15.8

7.7 9.6 9.2

7.4 9.7

11.1

7.9

2.1

2.21.4

1.4

1.50.8

1.4

2.7

3.3

2.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

02468

101214161820

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gas P

rice (

$P

er

Thousa

nd C

ubic

Feet)

Co

st ($

Bill

ion

s)

Year

NYCA SUPPLY COSTS 2006-2015

Energy and Ancillary Capacity Gas Price

*Capacity computations performed by DPS Staff using published NYISO Capacity Auction results**Energy and Ancillary computation performed by DPS Staff using NYISO Monthly reports and 2016 NYISO Gold Book*** All Supply costs are priced at market; note that bilateral contract prices may differ from current market prices****Gas Price is EIA Average Gas price For New York Power Consumer