2016 summer preparedness - government of new york · 2016 summer preparedness may, 2016. 2 2016...

15
2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016

Upload: others

Post on 26-May-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

2016 Summer Preparedness

May, 2016

Page 2: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

2

2016 Summer Preparedness

New York State

Electric System

Preparedness

Page 3: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

3

Historical Actual, Normal, & Forecast – Summer Peak(MW)

Source: NYISO

Page 4: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

4

2016 Summer Capability

2015 2016

Installed Generation Capacity 39,039 38,535

Demand Response – Special Case Resources (SCRs) 1,124 1,248

Total NY Control Area (NYCA) Internal Capability 40,163 39,783

Net Firm Purchase Imports 1,446 1,769

Total Capability 41,610 41,552

Source: NYISO

Page 5: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

5

NYS Peak Demand and Installed Reserve Margin

Forecast

Demand Forecast 33,360 MW

17.5% Required Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) 5,838 MW

Total Capability Requirement 39,198 MW

Total Capability This Summer 41,552 MW

Surplus (Capability Above Requirement) 2,354 MW

Capability Versus Demand Forecast (%) 124.6%

Source: NYISO

Page 6: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

6

Con Edison: Load Relief Programs

DLRP – Distribution Load Relief Program

CSRP – Commercial System Relief Program

DLC – Direct Load Control Program

232 229

209

175

200

232 236

0

45

8670

147137

194

38 35 35 36 31 32 28

-25

25

75

125

175

225

275

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Enro

llme

nt

(MW

)

DLRP

CSRP

DLC

Page 7: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

7

Utility Transmission and Distribution Systems Preparedness

• Surveys - Discussed responses to preparedness survey with each utility

• Work - All planned reinforcements, inspections, and repairs are or will be

completed

• Spares - Each utility has adequate spare equipment on hand

• Planned Outages - Major generator and transmission planned outages require

NYISO approval, and are avoided during peak periods

• Meeting Demand - Each utility expects to meet peak demand with all lines and

generators in service

• Meeting Criteria - Each meets NPCC and NYSRC operating criteria

• Mitigation – NYISO and each utility have operating procedures to mitigate

reliability issues

Page 8: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

8

2016 Summer Preparedness

New York State

Electric Portfolio, Volatility,

and Supply Price Outlook

Page 9: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Co

eff

icie

nt

of

Vari

ati

on

NYISO Spot Market vs.Utility Full Service Residential

Customer Supply Portfolio Volatility (Statewide 12-month rolling average)

Portfolio Market

Page 10: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

10

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Statewide - Mark to Market New Contract History

(% of Total Supply Costs)

New Contracts Cumulative New Contracts

Page 11: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

11

68%

21%

3%8%

New York State Electric Supply PortfolioFull Service Residential

(Summer 2016)

Fixed Price Market Price

Unhedged Generation Index Price

Page 12: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

12

NY West LBMP ($/MWH)

NY Hudson Valley LBMP ($/MWH)

New York City LBMP ($/MWH)

$29.84

$28.63

$30.53

$27.09

$28.34

$29.63

$32.93

$36.45

$38.61

Average Energy Price ComparisonSummer Season

NYMEX Futures June-September, 2015Spot Market June-September, 2015NYMEX Futures June-September, 2016

Page 13: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

13

$4.15

$10.99

$8.25

$3.62

$5.30

$15.50

$8.50

$3.50

Long Island

NYC Capacity Zone

New Capacity Zone

Rest of State

Summer Strip Auction Capacity Prices

($ per kW-month)

2015 2016

Page 14: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

14

0

1

2

3

4

0.6 0.8 0.6 0.70.4 0.1

0.41.0

1.0 0.6

0.30.4

1.0 1.0

0.50.6 1.0

0.70.9

1.3

1.6

1.40.5 0.4

0.2 0.2 0.1

0.02

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.3

Co

st

($ B

illio

ns)

Year

NYCA Capacity Costs 2006-2015

LI

NYC

NCZ

ROS

*Capacity computations performed by DPS Staff using published NYISO Capacity Auction results** All Capacity is priced at market prices; note that bilateral contract prices may differ from current market prices*** Costs jumped from 2012 through 2014 due to ~2,000MW in retirements and increases in peak load forecasts**** 2015 prices declined as there was nearly 1GW more supply vs the 2014 Gold Book.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 15: 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New York · 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness. 3 Historical Actual,

15

12.4 13.4 15.8

7.7 9.6 9.2

7.4 9.7

11.1

7.9

2.1

2.21.4

1.4

1.50.8

1.4

2.7

3.3

2.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

02468

101214161820

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gas P

rice (

$P

er

Thousa

nd C

ubic

Feet)

Co

st ($

Bill

ion

s)

Year

NYCA SUPPLY COSTS 2006-2015

Energy and Ancillary Capacity Gas Price

*Capacity computations performed by DPS Staff using published NYISO Capacity Auction results**Energy and Ancillary computation performed by DPS Staff using NYISO Monthly reports and 2016 NYISO Gold Book*** All Supply costs are priced at market; note that bilateral contract prices may differ from current market prices****Gas Price is EIA Average Gas price For New York Power Consumer