20130802 bh report: is the world a better place today?
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BH Report: Is the world a better place today? 2013/8/2
Context • If you ask anybody today, "is world perfect?" the answer is most likely "no" – people may disagree on
what a perfect world should look like, but there are no questions that we have a lot of issues on our plate
• At the same time, I felt that it must be at least "better" than yesterday... but is that really the case? Specifically – I wanted to answer following questions: "Objectively speaking, is the world a better place today than 10 years ago? how about 50 years ago, or 2000 years ago? If so, will it continue?"
• To approach this problem, I chose the famous phrase from US Declaration of Independence "Life, Liberty
and the pursuit of Happiness" for the framework... i.e., I looked at following 4 topics – (1) Life: Wars and conflicts – are people less likely to die from wars and conflicts? – (2) Life: Food supply – is #/% of undernourished declining? do we have more food supply per person? – (3) Liberty – are more people under the rule of democratic government1 ? – (4) "Pursuit of" Happiness – did people become happier? what is driving happiness? [light touch]
• NOTE: Any one of the topics covered in this is complicated enough to require deeper analysis (in fact,
various organizations and scholars have put together many good reports on each individual topic) - my intent in this report is to try looking at these holistically to answer to overall question
• NOTE: I did not cover some potentially highly relevant topics (e.g., Education, Access to healthcare, Social mobility) in this report for the belief that these are very important and yet secondary to above selected topics (... I could very well be wrong on this one... give me your thoughts if you think differently)
1. I'm making a gross generalization that that "democratic" government is "better" in this report... this is a much debated point for which I don't really have a strong point of view (for example, I don't have a good answer to the question "isn't benevolent dictatorship better than democracy?") I will have to revisit the question in the future...
Executive summary
(2) Food supply
(3) Liberty
(4) Happiness
Overall implications
(1) Wars and conflicts
• We are living in one of the most peaceful times in history
• It has especially improved in the last 20 years (despite terrorisms, etc.) but need to
continue our watch to keep away from large scale wars/conflicts given expected rise in
population fighting over potentially scarce resources
• Global food supply situation has improved significantly over the last 50 years during
which population doubled, but food production tripled
• However, this has not fully solved the problem of undernourishment (has remained at
~14% of world population for the last 15 years
• Looking forward, number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number and the
percentage of undernourished people in the future (e.g., income inequality, resources)
• Long term trend of more countries becoming "democratic" – roughly 65% of world
population lives under democratic government today vs. 40% in 1970
• Likely the trend continues
• In the US, despite economic and social improvement, the percentage of self-perceived
'happy' Americans has been virtually flat for the last 40 years
• Cross-country comparison shows that income is not the sole driver of happiness
• Thank our predecessors who have contributed to making this world a better place –
there has been clear improvements along many key dimensions over the last decades
• There are still tons of rooms for improvements (~14% undernourished population, ~200K
death from wars and conflicts p.a., ~5% of population living under autocratic
governments) and anticipation for challenges to come (population growth vs. resources)
• Recommendation: Make the best of life given to us, be happy and help push the world to
a become even better place
Agenda
• (1) Wars and conflicts
• (2) Food supply
• (3) Liberty
• (4) Happiness
• Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
• Appendix: World Population
Summary: (1) Wars and conflicts
• NOTE: I fully acknowledge that analyzing death counts could be very misleading... there is an old quote "The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions is a statistic1" ... it really shouldn't be that way
• Despite how it feels (incessant news on terrorisms, civil wars and conflicts abroad), we are actually living in one of the most peaceful times in history
• In terms of last 50 years... – Death toll was on the rise till 90's, but it has declined significantly in the last 20 years – Today, roughly ~200 thousand people die from wars and conflicts each year, which represents ~0.4% of
death each year and ~0.003% of world population
• Looking at longer time span (~2000 years)... – The percentage of death due to wars and conflicts (~0.003% of world population per year today) is at
one of the lowest levels • Two biggest spikes of death from wars and conflicts you see in history are the World Wars and
Mongolian Conquests in 13th century (both at roughly ~0.1% of world population per year) – But, it also seems that the history of wars and conflicts have been cyclical with ~400 years cycle
• It is tempting to quickly dismiss the possibility of future large-scale war (that is comparable to World
Wars) by saying that we have made progress as mankind and that we are much more globalized... but I think it is still valuable to identify what could potentially lead to such event, and try to solve for it2
1. The quote is often attributed to Joseph Stalin, but we apparently don't know who actually said this first 2. I don't have a full set of 'problems to be solved' but "how to allocate resources (e.g., food/water/oils) to growing population" and "how to reduce, or at least maintain the economic disparity "immediately come to my mind
(1) Wars and conflicts
How many people died from wars and conflicts each year?
0
500
6,500
Average # of deaths from wars and conflicts (thousand people per year)
2010-2013
214
2000’s
455
1960’s
318
1950’s
279
1940’s
6,204
578
1990’s
720
1980’s
566
1970’s
95%+ from World War II
Increase driven by internal conflicts (civil wars, insurgency, etc.) • Smaller death toll each, but larger
number of conflicts... net result of increase in death per year
Continued conflicts + some new large scale wars E.g., • 1st/2nd Congo War • Rwanda Civil War
Some of the long term (20-30 years) civil wars ended, and not many large scale new wars started • Iraq War was the
biggest, but even that accounts for just 8% of the overall death tolls
Death toll was on the rise till 90's, but it has declined significantly in the last 20 years despite the images of terrorisms and wars on terror
Note: Based on 145 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 1940AD or later; used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the duration of the war and conflict; 145 wars and conflicts all had minimum death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA
(1) Wars and conflicts
What percentage of world population does that represent?
0.00%
0.15%
0.20%
0.10%
0.30%
0.05%
0.25%
0.258%
1940’s
0.010%
Average percentage of death from wars and conflicts (% of world population per year)
2010-2013
0.003%
2000’s
0.009%
1990’s
0.013%
1980’s
0.012%
1950’s
0.009%
1960’s
0.011%
1970’s
Fairly small percentage of people die from wars and conflicts today (0.003%), and it also represents small portion of total death (0.4%) vs. other causes
% of total death n/a 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% n/a
Note: Based on 145 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 1940AD or later; used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the duration of the war and conflict; 145 wars and conflicts all had minimum death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA
(1) Wars and conflicts
How does this compare to historical trends for the last 2000 years ?
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
1700-1800
1800-1900
1950-2000
1900-1950
1600-1700
1500-1600
1400-1500
1300-1400
1200-1300
1100-1200
300-400
Average percentage of death from wars and conflicts (% of world population per year)
1000-1100
900-1000
100-200
200-300
400-500
500-600
600-700
700-800
800-900
0- 100
2000-2013
NOTE: Based on partial data • Historical data (both death tolls and
population) less reliable than last 100 years
– For example, hard to believe that
there were no wars/conflicts in 300-
400 and 600-700
• Intended to give a 'flavor' of how the
percentage has changed over years
World Wars
Manchu Conquest, Thirty Years' War, etc.
Mongol Conquests • One of the deadliest conflicts in history-
spanned ~1200-1320AD1, conquering much of Asia + Eastern Europe, killing 30-60 million people (world population was ~400 million in 1200)
An Lushan Rebellion, etc.
We are living in one of the most peaceful time periods, AND History has been cyclical so far with ~400 year cycle2... let's hope it won't be going forward
1. Genghis Khan died in 1227, but the conquests continued. 2. I should note that the spikes you see in 100's, 200's, 700's and 1600's are all driven primarily by large internal conflicts in China – which has really been the only country with large enough population such that internal conflicts can make the graph spike... for example, American Civil War in 1861-1865 was the deadliest war in the US with ~1 million death, but it was much smaller compared to contemporary Taiping Rebellion in China with estimated ~20-30 million death Note: Based on 257 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 0AD or later; used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the duration of the war and conflict; 257 wars and conflicts all had minimum death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA
(1) Wars and conflicts
Yellow Turban Rebellion and
Three Kingdoms Wars
Hunnic Invasion, Gothic War
Agenda
• (1) Wars and conflicts
• (2) Food supply
• (3) Liberty
• (4) Happiness
• Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
• Appendix: World Population
Summary: (2) Food supply
• Global food supply situation improved over the last 50 years – Population doubled but food production tripled (= more food supply per person) – Technology-led productivity improvement (e.g., agrochemicals for crop yield) drove food supply growth
• Today, on average basis, there is enough food supply to feed the whole world... however, there are sizable
number of people who are 'undernourished' (~14%) because of the variations of food supply across countries AND within each country
• Percentage of undernourished people was declining until mid 90's, but the improvement has been limited in the last 15 years – 24% of the world was 'undernourished' back in 1970 – This came down to 14% by 1995, but it has remained at the level for the last 15 years
• Looking forward, number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number and the percentage of
undernourished people in the future – Food production growth needs to outpace global population growth (~expected to be around 0.8%
CAGR through 2050) – Complex set of issues that need to be resolved (e.g., income inequality, gap in renewable water
resources, lack of infrastructure and ineffective government policies/strategies in countries with significant undernourished population)
(2) Food supply
In the last 50 years, population doubled, but food production tripled (= more food supply per person)
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10.0
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8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
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00
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Global food production1 (billion tonnes)
6.7
8.2
World population (billion)
Global food production
World population
1961 3.0 billion people, 2.7 billion tonnes of food produced, 2,043 kcal/person/day of food supply1
2009 6.7 billion people (2.2x) 8.2 billion tonnes of food (3.1x) 2,640 kcal/person/day of food supply1 (1.3x)
1. Note that not all of food production becomes food supply. In 2009, roughly 1 billion tonne (13%) was used as feed, 0.1 billion tonne (2%) was used as seed, 2.4 billion tonnes (30%) was used for food manufacturing and 0.7 billion tonne (9%) was used for other purposes – leaving 3.8 billion tonnes (47%) as food supply (=2,640 kcal per day per person) Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA
Technology-led productivity improvement (e.g., agrochemicals for crop yield) has been the primary driver
(2) Food supply
Back-up: Cereals (esp. wheat & rice) are the largest sources of the global food supply; meat & fish relatively small
5%
20%
15%
Chicken Beef Other meat
100%
46%
Pork
13%
Fish Total
8%
3%
80
100
40
60
20
0
2009
All other
Cereals
Roots, vegetables, fruits, beans
Sugar & sweetners
Meat and fish
Oil, oilcrops, animal fats
14%
15%
10%
49%
% world food supply in terms of kcal
Source: FAO
24%
Beans/Peas
16%
Total
100%
Vegetables
36%
Starchy roots (e.g. potatoes)
Fruits
23%
Other cereals
6%
Maize
11%
Rice
42%
Wheat Total
41%
100%
(2) Food supply
Enough food supply to feed the world on average... issue with variations across countries and within each country
3,000
4,000
0
1,000
2,000
Average 2,640 kcal/person/day
Average annual food supply for the country (kcal per person per day) in 2009
India USA China
Each box represents one of 176 countries mapped
Population of the country in 2009 (= total 8.7 billion)
Worst 15: Eritrea, Burundi, Zambia, Kenya, Haiti, Sudan, Palestinian Territory, Tajikistan, Botswana, Chad, Yemen, North Korea, Namibia, Congo, Ethiopia
Top 15: Austria, Kuwait, Turkey, Portugal, Belgium, Italy, Egypt, USA, Israel, Ireland, Hungary, Morocco, Greece, Germany, Canada
Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA
Enough energy for ~70kg (~155lbs)
individual to sustain body weight even with heavy level of exercise
(2) Food supply
Percentage of 'undernourished people' was declining until mid 90's... but, limited improvement in the last 15 years
920875
855825
845850880
1970 1980
0
1975 2005 2010
800
600
400
200
1,000
1985 1990 1995 2000
Million people
Number of 'undernourished' people in the world1
Percentage of 'undernourished' people in the world1
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
10
5
15
20
25
2000 1995 2005 2010
% of world population
14% 14% 14% 14% 16%
19%
24%
1. By the way, this is fairly academic statistic – it is defined by FAO in following phrasing "undernourishment exists when caloric intake is below the minimum dietary energy requirement (MDER). The MDER is the amount of energy needed for light activity and a minimum acceptable weight for attained height, and it varies by country and from year to year depending on the gender and age structure of the population" Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA
(2) Food supply
Number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number/ percentage of 'undernourished people' in the future...
Challenges
Global population is expected to grow to ~9.2
billion people (37% growth, 0.8% CAGR) by 2050
• Nearly all of the growth will take place in
developing countries
This implies that food supply needs to grow at
FASTER rate than 0.8% CAGR
• Because most of incremental population growth
will come from developing countries – and will
face economic challenges unless relative price
of food declines
This has been feasible in the last decades due to
improved yield (thanks to technology) + higher
land utilization, but we just aren't sure if we can
keep up the growth
• For example, global cereals production grew at
2.0% CAGR for the last 10 years (1.6% from
yield improvement, 0.4% from land increase)
• So far, we haven't seen the yield improvement
to slow down, but can we sustain this? are we
near the limit (e.g., water supply issue), or do
we have enough room for continued growth?
Key issues that need to resolved
Income inequality among countries AND within each country Roadblocks for continued food production increase (esp. cereals, but also livestock) • Renewable water resources (agriculture
represents ~70% of water usage) • Constraints for land expansion (chemical,
physical, endemic diseases, lack of infrastructure)
Insufficient local/domestic food production in countries with significant undernourished population • Heavy reliance on imports • Lack of infrastructure and ineffective
government policies/strategies
I won't go into further detail in this report about what needs to be done (too difficult to solve given limited time), but I would like to revisit this problem in the future...
Source: FAO; WorldBank; US Census; UNDESA; McKinsey
1
2
3
(2) Food supply
Agenda
• (1) Wars and conflicts
• (2) Food supply
• (3) Liberty
• (4) Happiness
• Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
• Appendix: World Population
Summary: (3) Liberty
• NOTE: I'm making a gross generalization that that "democratic" government is "better" in this report... this is a much debated point for which I don't really have a strong point of view (for example, I don't have a good answer to the question "isn't benevolent dictatorship better than democracy?")
– For now, I will go on with this definition, but I will have to revisit the question in the future
• In general, the world became much more democratic over the course of last 40 years...
– Roughly ~65% of the world population lives under "democratic government" today
• Clear improvement from ~40% in 1970 – many of the previously autocratic countries shifted to democracy since 1970 while there are only small number of examples countries who went into an opposite direction (or it only lasted for short period of time E.g., failed coup)
• China, representing ~20% of world population, is not a democratic country - but it seems socially stable, at least so far1
• And this is likely to continue...
– Long term trend has been for any countries to shift toward democracy for the last 200 years (though some countries did go back and forth over 10-50 year time cycle) – again, China is an exception
– I do not have any reasons to believe that the trend would reverse in any foreseeable future
(3) Liberty
1. Questionable whether China can continue to be that way for the next 50-100 years, and also unclear if the right answer is to shift to democracy or not... I didn't dig deeper into this one, as it would require a lot more in-depth research & thinking
Roughly ~65% of the world population lives under democratic government today (vs. ~40% in 1970) excluding China
27 26 25 24 21 20
1323
1913
5
7
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5
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5
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5
1415
42 3946 47
51
5
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40
100
60
20
80
0
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2
1990 1980 1970 2000
1
Autocratic
Somewhat democratic
Neutral
China
Somewhat autocratic
% of world population, based on the level of democracy/autocracy of the country ** China called out because it is big & an outlier
2010
Democratic
1
1960
3
Source: Polity IV dataset
Aside from China (in which the quality of life is arguably not low when compared to other developing nations), there is limited amount of people under autocracy
China would fall under "somewhat autocratic"
bucket if classified
~85% of world population excl. China
(3) Liberty
Includes countries like North Korea, Saudi Arabia,
Uzbekistan, Eritrea
Examples of countries who made the switch since 1970
From autocratic to democratic
Greece (1974 – 1975) Portugal (1974 – 1976) Spain (1976 – 1978) Mexico (1976 – 20001) Peru (1979 – 1980) Bolivia (1982) Argentina (1983) Brazil (1985) Poland (1985) Taiwan (1987 – 1992) Hungary (1987 – 1990) East Germany (1989) Panama (1989) Albania (1990) Romania (1989 – 1990) Paraguay (1989 – 1991) Mongolia (1990 – 1992) Bulgaria (1990) Czechoslovakia (1990) Lesotho (1993) Indonesia (1999) Senegal (2000)
From democratic to autocratic
Gambia (1994) Fiji (2006) Venezuela (2009)
1. Series of events that slowly moved Mexico toward democratic government Source: Polity IV dataset
More examples of shift to democracy observed... high concentration around 1989-1991 related to the fall of Berlin Wall/ collapse of USSR [untested]?
(3) Liberty
Long term trend has been to go toward democracy for the last 200 years – though countries like France went back and forth
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United States United Kingdom Russia/USSR Japan France China Prussia/Germany
Mo
re d
emo
crat
ic
WWII (1939- 1945)
Russia: Russian Revolution (1917)
Japan: Meiji Restoration
(1868)
France: End of Napoleon's reign (1814), July Revolution (1830),
February Revolution (1848), Coup of 1851
Russia: USSR dissolved (1991)
China: Cultural Revolution
(1966), Mao's death (1976)
Source: Polity IV dataset
(Examples with select countries for the last 200 years)
China: Xinhai
Revolution (1911)
(3) Liberty
Back-up: Approach and dataset used for the assessment of the level of democracy/autocracy
Several government/ non-government organizations have published different indices and assessments of "the state of freedom" in the world Among the choices, I selected Polity IV Project which was publicly available, seemed to apply a sound approach, and allowed for long term analytics • You can access the original dataset at < http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm >
Description of Polity IV methodology For each country in each year, Polity IV assigns 21 point scale (-10 to 10) for the spectrum of "democratic" and "autocratic"... the scoring is based on following 5 criteria • Competitiveness of Executive Recruitment • Openness of Executive Recruitment • Constraint on Chief Executive • Competitiveness of Political Participations • Regulation of participation
(3) Liberty
Agenda
• (1) Wars and conflicts
• (2) Food supply
• (3) Liberty
• (4) Happiness
• Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
• Appendix: World Population
Summary: (4) Happiness
• Happiness is clearly a subjective matter, and is difficult to study – but there has been number of surveys with time series (e.g., Gallup World Poll, US General Social Survey) and number of researches and reports- notably United Nations published its first "World Happiness Report" in 2012
• Despite economic and social improvement, percentage of self-perceived 'happy' Americans has been
virtually flat for the past 40 years – There is somewhat of a correlation between income level and percentage of happy people (i.e., you
have slightly higher chance of being happy if you are richer) – but there is no aggregate improvement for the overall population even if the economy improves as a whole
– Majority of people (>80%) with income level above $50K is at least somewhat happy (i.e., "it's okay"), but only ~30-40% find themselves "very happy"; this percentage only goes up to ~50% even when income level goes up to $150K+
• Cross-country comparison of self-reported happiness does not seems to show any obvious patterns – it is difficult to establish causality (most of published reports don't agree on key drivers) – but it is most certainly NOT solely driven by income
• In short: above certain point (e.g., minimum level of income, peace, sufficient food supply, etc), it is up to an individual to be happy or unhappy – let's make the best of it!
(4) Happiness
[US] Percentage of self-perceived 'happy' Americans have been virtually flat for the past 40 years
3329
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343329
3632
3536343635333837
87868688888990899089909192919289909088888888
928988878888
1978 1980 1974 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992
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1976 1972 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
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40
%
83
30
Very happy or Pretty happy
Very happy
Question: Taken all together, how would you say things are these days - would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?
Source: US General Social Survey (1972-2012, cumulative n=52,346)
Apparently, any improvements for the past 40 years had no effect on the total percentage of "happy" people
(4) Happiness
[US] It seems that majority of people (>80%) with household income above $50K are at least somewhat happy (i.e., "okay")
0
100 50
100
80
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40
20
200 150
10
30
50
70
90
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% who responded "very happy" OR "pretty happy"
Inflation adjusted household income ($K per year)
Source: US General Social Survey (1972-2012, cumulative n=52,346)
Question: Taken all together, how would you say things are these days - would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?
Each bubble represents a set of samples surveyed –size of the
bubble represent the sample size
Seems to correlate positively with income level
Virtually flat above certain threshold (~$50K)
(4) Happiness
[US] Percentage of "very happy" go up with income level (NOTE: even the highest group is only at ~50% implying that no matter how rich you get,
only about half of them see perceive themselves as "very happy")
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100
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50 100 150 200
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90
% who responded "very happy"
Inflation adjusted household income ($K per year)
Question: Taken all together, how would you say things are these days - would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?
Source: US General Social Survey (1972-2012, cumulative n=52,346)
Each bubble represents a set of samples surveyed –size of the
bubble represent the sample size
Positive correlation
(4) Happiness
Cross-country comparison of self-reported happiness does not seems to show any obvious patterns (certainly not income)
0 50 100 -100 -50
Brazil
Germany France
United-States Macedonia
Russian-Federation Bulgaria
Cameroon China
Ukraine United-Kingdom
Hong-Kong Pakistan Vietnam Morocco
Turkey Czech-Republic
Italy Serbia
Ireland Poland Tunisia
Portugal Iraq
Romania Palestine
Saudi-Arabia Philippines
Finland Azerbaijan
Peru Switzerland
Iceland Argentina
Ecuador Spain Japan
Singapore Georgia Austria
Sweden Armenia
Kenya India
Bosnia-and-Herzegovina South-Korea
Canada
Australia Mozambique
Afghanistan
Lebanon
Colombia Malaysia
Belgium
Neither
Unhappy
Happy
Question: As far as you are concerned, do you personally feel happy, unhappy or neither happy nor un-happy about your life?
Source: WIN-Gallup International Association (December 2012, n=55,817)
"Happiest"
"Unhappiest"
(4) Happiness
Agenda
• (1) Wars and conflicts
• (2) Food supply
• (3) Liberty
• (4) Happiness
• Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
• Appendix: World Population
Average life expectancy
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66
19
68
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
88
19
94
19
84
19
92
80
19
64
10
90
19
61
20
10
19
63
20
00
19
65
19
90
19
67
19
80
19
69
1
97
0
19
71
19
60
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
Average life expectancy (female)
Source: World Bank
Rwanda civil war
Each line represents a country or a region
Cambodian genocide
Appendix
Crude death rate
3.0%
4.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
19
60
1
96
1
19
62
1
96
3
19
64
1
96
5
Crude death rate (death as % of population each year) 1
96
6
19
67
1
96
8
19
69
1
97
0
19
71
1
97
2
19
73
1
97
4
19
75
1
97
6
19
77
1
97
8
19
79
19
80
1
98
1
19
82
1
98
3
19
84
1
98
5
19
86
1
98
7
19
88
1
98
9
19
90
1
99
1
19
92
1
99
3
19
94
1
99
5
19
96
1
99
7
19
98
1
99
9
20
00
2
00
1
20
02
2
00
3
20
04
20
05
2
00
6
20
07
2
00
8
20
09
2
01
0
20
11
Each line represents a country or a region
Rwanda civil war
Cambodian genocide
Source: World Bank
Appendix
Infant mortality rate
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
19
60
1
96
1
19
62
1
96
3
19
64
1
96
5
Infant mortality rate (% of infant/child who dies in less than 5 years from birth) 1
96
6
19
67
1
96
8
19
69
1
97
0
19
71
1
97
2
19
73
1
97
4
19
75
1
97
6
19
77
1
97
8
19
79
1
98
0
19
81
1
98
2
19
83
1
98
4
19
85
19
86
1
98
7
19
88
1
98
9
19
90
1
99
1
19
92
1
99
3
19
94
1
99
5
19
96
1
99
7
19
98
1
99
9
20
00
2
00
1
20
02
20
03
2
00
4
20
05
2
00
6
20
07
2
00
8
20
09
2
01
0
20
11
Each line represents a country or a region
Source: World Bank
Rwanda civil war
Appendix
Agenda
• (1) Wars and conflicts
• (2) Food supply
• (3) Liberty
• (4) Happiness
• Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
• Appendix: World Population
World Population is rapidly growing
1250 1000 1750 1500 2000 2250
8,000
10,000
250 -1250 -1000 -1500 -1750
4,000
-2000
2,000
6,000
0
-500 -250 -750 0 500 750
~256
~7,123
~27
~9,235
~762
World population (Million people)
Year (AD)
Forecast
Historical
Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA
Appendix
Growth trajectory of world population has been driven by major social events - it truly accelerated after WWII
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
00
19
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
19
65
19
60
19
55
19
50
World Population (M)
Year
+1.7%
Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA
18
00
17
00
16
00
15
00
14
00
13
00
12
00
11
00
10
00
90
0
70
0
80
0
50
0
60
0
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
+0.2%
+0.1%
World population (M)
Year
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
19
50
19
00
18
50
18
00
17
50
World Population (M)
Year
+0.6%
~500 - 1750
(+0.1-0.2% p.a.)
~1750 - 1950
(+0.6% p.a.)
~1950 - today
(+1.7% p.a.)
~ Second Industrial Revolution (chemicals, electricity, oils, steels)
~First Industrial Revolution (textiles) and Agricultural Revolution
~End of World War II ~Mongolian
Conquests
~Black Death
Appendix
Disclaimer
This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from sources that I consider reliable, I do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments.
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