20130802 bh report: is the world a better place today?

BH Report: Is the world a better place today? 2013/8/2

Context • If you ask anybody today, "is world perfect?" the answer is most likely "no" – people may disagree on

what a perfect world should look like, but there are no questions that we have a lot of issues on our plate

• At the same time, I felt that it must be at least "better" than yesterday... but is that really the case? Specifically – I wanted to answer following questions: "Objectively speaking, is the world a better place today than 10 years ago? how about 50 years ago, or 2000 years ago? If so, will it continue?"

• To approach this problem, I chose the famous phrase from US Declaration of Independence "Life, Liberty

and the pursuit of Happiness" for the framework... i.e., I looked at following 4 topics – (1) Life: Wars and conflicts – are people less likely to die from wars and conflicts? – (2) Life: Food supply – is #/% of undernourished declining? do we have more food supply per person? – (3) Liberty – are more people under the rule of democratic government1 ? – (4) "Pursuit of" Happiness – did people become happier? what is driving happiness? [light touch]

• NOTE: Any one of the topics covered in this is complicated enough to require deeper analysis (in fact,

various organizations and scholars have put together many good reports on each individual topic) - my intent in this report is to try looking at these holistically to answer to overall question

• NOTE: I did not cover some potentially highly relevant topics (e.g., Education, Access to healthcare, Social mobility) in this report for the belief that these are very important and yet secondary to above selected topics (... I could very well be wrong on this one... give me your thoughts if you think differently)

1. I'm making a gross generalization that that "democratic" government is "better" in this report... this is a much debated point for which I don't really have a strong point of view (for example, I don't have a good answer to the question "isn't benevolent dictatorship better than democracy?") I will have to revisit the question in the future...

Executive summary

(2) Food supply

(3) Liberty

(4) Happiness

Overall implications

(1) Wars and conflicts

• We are living in one of the most peaceful times in history

• It has especially improved in the last 20 years (despite terrorisms, etc.) but need to

continue our watch to keep away from large scale wars/conflicts given expected rise in

population fighting over potentially scarce resources

• Global food supply situation has improved significantly over the last 50 years during

which population doubled, but food production tripled

• However, this has not fully solved the problem of undernourishment (has remained at

~14% of world population for the last 15 years

• Looking forward, number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number and the

percentage of undernourished people in the future (e.g., income inequality, resources)

• Long term trend of more countries becoming "democratic" – roughly 65% of world

population lives under democratic government today vs. 40% in 1970

• Likely the trend continues

• In the US, despite economic and social improvement, the percentage of self-perceived

'happy' Americans has been virtually flat for the last 40 years

• Cross-country comparison shows that income is not the sole driver of happiness

• Thank our predecessors who have contributed to making this world a better place –

there has been clear improvements along many key dimensions over the last decades

• There are still tons of rooms for improvements (~14% undernourished population, ~200K

death from wars and conflicts p.a., ~5% of population living under autocratic

governments) and anticipation for challenges to come (population growth vs. resources)

• Recommendation: Make the best of life given to us, be happy and help push the world to

a become even better place

Agenda

• (1) Wars and conflicts

• (2) Food supply

• (3) Liberty

• (4) Happiness

• Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices

• Appendix: World Population

Summary: (1) Wars and conflicts

• NOTE: I fully acknowledge that analyzing death counts could be very misleading... there is an old quote "The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions is a statistic1" ... it really shouldn't be that way

• Despite how it feels (incessant news on terrorisms, civil wars and conflicts abroad), we are actually living in one of the most peaceful times in history

• In terms of last 50 years... – Death toll was on the rise till 90's, but it has declined significantly in the last 20 years – Today, roughly ~200 thousand people die from wars and conflicts each year, which represents ~0.4% of

death each year and ~0.003% of world population

• Looking at longer time span (~2000 years)... – The percentage of death due to wars and conflicts (~0.003% of world population per year today) is at

one of the lowest levels • Two biggest spikes of death from wars and conflicts you see in history are the World Wars and

Mongolian Conquests in 13th century (both at roughly ~0.1% of world population per year) – But, it also seems that the history of wars and conflicts have been cyclical with ~400 years cycle

• It is tempting to quickly dismiss the possibility of future large-scale war (that is comparable to World

Wars) by saying that we have made progress as mankind and that we are much more globalized... but I think it is still valuable to identify what could potentially lead to such event, and try to solve for it2

1. The quote is often attributed to Joseph Stalin, but we apparently don't know who actually said this first 2. I don't have a full set of 'problems to be solved' but "how to allocate resources (e.g., food/water/oils) to growing population" and "how to reduce, or at least maintain the economic disparity "immediately come to my mind


How many people died from wars and conflicts each year?

0

500

6,500

Average # of deaths from wars and conflicts (thousand people per year)

2010-2013

214

2000’s

455

1960’s

318

1950’s

279

1940’s

6,204

578

1990’s

720

1980’s

566

1970’s

95%+ from World War II

Increase driven by internal conflicts (civil wars, insurgency, etc.) • Smaller death toll each, but larger

number of conflicts... net result of increase in death per year

Continued conflicts + some new large scale wars E.g., • 1st/2nd Congo War • Rwanda Civil War

Some of the long term (20-30 years) civil wars ended, and not many large scale new wars started • Iraq War was the

biggest, but even that accounts for just 8% of the overall death tolls

Death toll was on the rise till 90's, but it has declined significantly in the last 20 years despite the images of terrorisms and wars on terror

Note: Based on 145 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 1940AD or later; used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the duration of the war and conflict; 145 wars and conflicts all had minimum death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA


What percentage of world population does that represent?

0.00%

0.15%

0.20%

0.10%

0.30%

0.05%

0.25%

0.258%

1940’s

0.010%

Average percentage of death from wars and conflicts (% of world population per year)

2010-2013

0.003%

2000’s

0.009%

1990’s

0.013%

1980’s

0.012%

1950’s

0.009%

1960’s

0.011%

1970’s

Fairly small percentage of people die from wars and conflicts today (0.003%), and it also represents small portion of total death (0.4%) vs. other causes

% of total death n/a 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% n/a

Note: Based on 145 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 1940AD or later; used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the duration of the war and conflict; 145 wars and conflicts all had minimum death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA


How does this compare to historical trends for the last 2000 years ?

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

1700-1800

1800-1900

1950-2000

1900-1950

1600-1700

1500-1600

1400-1500

1300-1400

1200-1300

1100-1200

300-400

Average percentage of death from wars and conflicts (% of world population per year)

1000-1100

900-1000

100-200

200-300

400-500

500-600

600-700

700-800

800-900

0- 100

2000-2013

NOTE: Based on partial data • Historical data (both death tolls and

population) less reliable than last 100 years

– For example, hard to believe that

there were no wars/conflicts in 300-

400 and 600-700

• Intended to give a 'flavor' of how the

percentage has changed over years

World Wars

Manchu Conquest, Thirty Years' War, etc.

Mongol Conquests • One of the deadliest conflicts in history-

spanned ~1200-1320AD1, conquering much of Asia + Eastern Europe, killing 30-60 million people (world population was ~400 million in 1200)

An Lushan Rebellion, etc.

We are living in one of the most peaceful time periods, AND History has been cyclical so far with ~400 year cycle2... let's hope it won't be going forward

1. Genghis Khan died in 1227, but the conquests continued. 2. I should note that the spikes you see in 100's, 200's, 700's and 1600's are all driven primarily by large internal conflicts in China – which has really been the only country with large enough population such that internal conflicts can make the graph spike... for example, American Civil War in 1861-1865 was the deadliest war in the US with ~1 million death, but it was much smaller compared to contemporary Taiping Rebellion in China with estimated ~20-30 million death Note: Based on 257 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 0AD or later; used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the duration of the war and conflict; 257 wars and conflicts all had minimum death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA


Yellow Turban Rebellion and

Three Kingdoms Wars

Hunnic Invasion, Gothic War

Agenda


• (2) Food supply

• (3) Liberty

• (4) Happiness



Summary: (2) Food supply

• Global food supply situation improved over the last 50 years – Population doubled but food production tripled (= more food supply per person) – Technology-led productivity improvement (e.g., agrochemicals for crop yield) drove food supply growth

• Today, on average basis, there is enough food supply to feed the whole world... however, there are sizable

number of people who are 'undernourished' (~14%) because of the variations of food supply across countries AND within each country

• Percentage of undernourished people was declining until mid 90's, but the improvement has been limited in the last 15 years – 24% of the world was 'undernourished' back in 1970 – This came down to 14% by 1995, but it has remained at the level for the last 15 years

• Looking forward, number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number and the percentage of

undernourished people in the future – Food production growth needs to outpace global population growth (~expected to be around 0.8%

CAGR through 2050) – Complex set of issues that need to be resolved (e.g., income inequality, gap in renewable water

resources, lack of infrastructure and ineffective government policies/strategies in countries with significant undernourished population)

(2) Food supply

In the last 50 years, population doubled, but food production tripled (= more food supply per person)

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98

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74

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97

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19

72

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19

70

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96

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19

68

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96

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19

66

1

96

5

19

64

1

96

3

19

62

1

96

1

10.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

19

99

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

20

09

2

00

8

20

07

20

06

2

00

5

20

04

2

00

3

20

02

2

00

1

20

00

Global food production1 (billion tonnes)

6.7

8.2

World population (billion)

Global food production

World population

1961 3.0 billion people, 2.7 billion tonnes of food produced, 2,043 kcal/person/day of food supply1

2009 6.7 billion people (2.2x) 8.2 billion tonnes of food (3.1x) 2,640 kcal/person/day of food supply1 (1.3x)

1. Note that not all of food production becomes food supply. In 2009, roughly 1 billion tonne (13%) was used as feed, 0.1 billion tonne (2%) was used as seed, 2.4 billion tonnes (30%) was used for food manufacturing and 0.7 billion tonne (9%) was used for other purposes – leaving 3.8 billion tonnes (47%) as food supply (=2,640 kcal per day per person) Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA

Technology-led productivity improvement (e.g., agrochemicals for crop yield) has been the primary driver

(2) Food supply

Back-up: Cereals (esp. wheat & rice) are the largest sources of the global food supply; meat & fish relatively small

5%

20%

15%

Chicken Beef Other meat

100%

46%

Pork

13%

Fish Total

8%

3%

80

100

40

60

20

0

2009

All other

Cereals

Roots, vegetables, fruits, beans

Sugar & sweetners

Meat and fish

Oil, oilcrops, animal fats

14%

15%

10%

49%

% world food supply in terms of kcal

Source: FAO

24%

Beans/Peas

16%

Total

100%

Vegetables

36%

Starchy roots (e.g. potatoes)

Fruits

23%

Other cereals

6%

Maize

11%

Rice

42%

Wheat Total

41%

100%

(2) Food supply

Enough food supply to feed the world on average... issue with variations across countries and within each country

3,000

4,000

0

1,000

2,000

Average 2,640 kcal/person/day

Average annual food supply for the country (kcal per person per day) in 2009

India USA China

Each box represents one of 176 countries mapped

Population of the country in 2009 (= total 8.7 billion)

Worst 15: Eritrea, Burundi, Zambia, Kenya, Haiti, Sudan, Palestinian Territory, Tajikistan, Botswana, Chad, Yemen, North Korea, Namibia, Congo, Ethiopia

Top 15: Austria, Kuwait, Turkey, Portugal, Belgium, Italy, Egypt, USA, Israel, Ireland, Hungary, Morocco, Greece, Germany, Canada

Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA

Enough energy for ~70kg (~155lbs)

individual to sustain body weight even with heavy level of exercise

(2) Food supply

Percentage of 'undernourished people' was declining until mid 90's... but, limited improvement in the last 15 years

920875

855825

845850880

1970 1980

0

1975 2005 2010

800

600

400

200

1,000

1985 1990 1995 2000

Million people

Number of 'undernourished' people in the world1

Percentage of 'undernourished' people in the world1

0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

10

5

15

20

25

2000 1995 2005 2010

% of world population

14% 14% 14% 14% 16%

19%

24%

1. By the way, this is fairly academic statistic – it is defined by FAO in following phrasing "undernourishment exists when caloric intake is below the minimum dietary energy requirement (MDER). The MDER is the amount of energy needed for light activity and a minimum acceptable weight for attained height, and it varies by country and from year to year depending on the gender and age structure of the population" Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA

(2) Food supply

Number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number/ percentage of 'undernourished people' in the future...

Challenges

Global population is expected to grow to ~9.2

billion people (37% growth, 0.8% CAGR) by 2050

• Nearly all of the growth will take place in

developing countries

This implies that food supply needs to grow at

FASTER rate than 0.8% CAGR

• Because most of incremental population growth

will come from developing countries – and will

face economic challenges unless relative price

of food declines

This has been feasible in the last decades due to

improved yield (thanks to technology) + higher

land utilization, but we just aren't sure if we can

keep up the growth

• For example, global cereals production grew at

2.0% CAGR for the last 10 years (1.6% from

yield improvement, 0.4% from land increase)

• So far, we haven't seen the yield improvement

to slow down, but can we sustain this? are we

near the limit (e.g., water supply issue), or do

we have enough room for continued growth?

Key issues that need to resolved

Income inequality among countries AND within each country Roadblocks for continued food production increase (esp. cereals, but also livestock) • Renewable water resources (agriculture

represents ~70% of water usage) • Constraints for land expansion (chemical,

physical, endemic diseases, lack of infrastructure)

Insufficient local/domestic food production in countries with significant undernourished population • Heavy reliance on imports • Lack of infrastructure and ineffective

government policies/strategies

I won't go into further detail in this report about what needs to be done (too difficult to solve given limited time), but I would like to revisit this problem in the future...

Source: FAO; WorldBank; US Census; UNDESA; McKinsey

1

2

3

(2) Food supply

Agenda


• (2) Food supply

• (3) Liberty

• (4) Happiness



Summary: (3) Liberty

• NOTE: I'm making a gross generalization that that "democratic" government is "better" in this report... this is a much debated point for which I don't really have a strong point of view (for example, I don't have a good answer to the question "isn't benevolent dictatorship better than democracy?")

– For now, I will go on with this definition, but I will have to revisit the question in the future

• In general, the world became much more democratic over the course of last 40 years...

– Roughly ~65% of the world population lives under "democratic government" today

• Clear improvement from ~40% in 1970 – many of the previously autocratic countries shifted to democracy since 1970 while there are only small number of examples countries who went into an opposite direction (or it only lasted for short period of time E.g., failed coup)

• China, representing ~20% of world population, is not a democratic country - but it seems socially stable, at least so far1

• And this is likely to continue...

– Long term trend has been for any countries to shift toward democracy for the last 200 years (though some countries did go back and forth over 10-50 year time cycle) – again, China is an exception

– I do not have any reasons to believe that the trend would reverse in any foreseeable future

(3) Liberty

1. Questionable whether China can continue to be that way for the next 50-100 years, and also unclear if the right answer is to shift to democracy or not... I didn't dig deeper into this one, as it would require a lot more in-depth research & thinking

Roughly ~65% of the world population lives under democratic government today (vs. ~40% in 1970) excluding China

27 26 25 24 21 20

1323

1913

5

7

9

8

5

7

5

8

8

5

1415

42 3946 47

51

5

58

39

40

100

60

20

80

0

3

2

1990 1980 1970 2000

1

Autocratic

Somewhat democratic

Neutral

China

Somewhat autocratic

% of world population, based on the level of democracy/autocracy of the country ** China called out because it is big & an outlier

2010

Democratic

1

1960

3

Source: Polity IV dataset

Aside from China (in which the quality of life is arguably not low when compared to other developing nations), there is limited amount of people under autocracy

China would fall under "somewhat autocratic"

bucket if classified

~85% of world population excl. China

(3) Liberty

Includes countries like North Korea, Saudi Arabia,

Uzbekistan, Eritrea

Examples of countries who made the switch since 1970

From autocratic to democratic

Greece (1974 – 1975) Portugal (1974 – 1976) Spain (1976 – 1978) Mexico (1976 – 20001) Peru (1979 – 1980) Bolivia (1982) Argentina (1983) Brazil (1985) Poland (1985) Taiwan (1987 – 1992) Hungary (1987 – 1990) East Germany (1989) Panama (1989) Albania (1990) Romania (1989 – 1990) Paraguay (1989 – 1991) Mongolia (1990 – 1992) Bulgaria (1990) Czechoslovakia (1990) Lesotho (1993) Indonesia (1999) Senegal (2000)

From democratic to autocratic

Gambia (1994) Fiji (2006) Venezuela (2009)

1. Series of events that slowly moved Mexico toward democratic government Source: Polity IV dataset

More examples of shift to democracy observed... high concentration around 1989-1991 related to the fall of Berlin Wall/ collapse of USSR [untested]?

(3) Liberty

Long term trend has been to go toward democracy for the last 200 years – though countries like France went back and forth

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United States United Kingdom Russia/USSR Japan France China Prussia/Germany

Mo

re d

emo

crat

ic

WWII (1939- 1945)

Russia: Russian Revolution (1917)

Japan: Meiji Restoration

(1868)

France: End of Napoleon's reign (1814), July Revolution (1830),

February Revolution (1848), Coup of 1851

Russia: USSR dissolved (1991)

China: Cultural Revolution

(1966), Mao's death (1976)

Source: Polity IV dataset

(Examples with select countries for the last 200 years)

China: Xinhai

Revolution (1911)

(3) Liberty

Back-up: Approach and dataset used for the assessment of the level of democracy/autocracy

Several government/ non-government organizations have published different indices and assessments of "the state of freedom" in the world Among the choices, I selected Polity IV Project which was publicly available, seemed to apply a sound approach, and allowed for long term analytics • You can access the original dataset at < http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm >

Description of Polity IV methodology For each country in each year, Polity IV assigns 21 point scale (-10 to 10) for the spectrum of "democratic" and "autocratic"... the scoring is based on following 5 criteria • Competitiveness of Executive Recruitment • Openness of Executive Recruitment • Constraint on Chief Executive • Competitiveness of Political Participations • Regulation of participation

(3) Liberty

http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm

http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm

Agenda


• (2) Food supply

• (3) Liberty

• (4) Happiness



Summary: (4) Happiness

• Happiness is clearly a subjective matter, and is difficult to study – but there has been number of surveys with time series (e.g., Gallup World Poll, US General Social Survey) and number of researches and reports- notably United Nations published its first "World Happiness Report" in 2012

• Despite economic and social improvement, percentage of self-perceived 'happy' Americans has been

virtually flat for the past 40 years – There is somewhat of a correlation between income level and percentage of happy people (i.e., you

have slightly higher chance of being happy if you are richer) – but there is no aggregate improvement for the overall population even if the economy improves as a whole

– Majority of people (>80%) with income level above $50K is at least somewhat happy (i.e., "it's okay"), but only ~30-40% find themselves "very happy"; this percentage only goes up to ~50% even when income level goes up to $150K+

• Cross-country comparison of self-reported happiness does not seems to show any obvious patterns – it is difficult to establish causality (most of published reports don't agree on key drivers) – but it is most certainly NOT solely driven by income

• In short: above certain point (e.g., minimum level of income, peace, sufficient food supply, etc), it is up to an individual to be happy or unhappy – let's make the best of it!

(4) Happiness

[US] Percentage of self-perceived 'happy' Americans have been virtually flat for the past 40 years

3329

32323433343332313333

363536

343329

3632

3536343635333837

87868688888990899089909192919289909088888888

928988878888

1978 1980 1974 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

60

1976 1972 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

20

0

100

2010

80

2012

40

%

83

30

Very happy or Pretty happy

Very happy

Question: Taken all together, how would you say things are these days - would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?

Source: US General Social Survey (1972-2012, cumulative n=52,346)

Apparently, any improvements for the past 40 years had no effect on the total percentage of "happy" people

(4) Happiness

[US] It seems that majority of people (>80%) with household income above $50K are at least somewhat happy (i.e., "okay")

0

100 50

100

80

60

40

20

200 150

10

30

50

70

90

0

% who responded "very happy" OR "pretty happy"

Inflation adjusted household income ($K per year)



Each bubble represents a set of samples surveyed –size of the

bubble represent the sample size

Seems to correlate positively with income level

Virtually flat above certain threshold (~$50K)

(4) Happiness

[US] Percentage of "very happy" go up with income level (NOTE: even the highest group is only at ~50% implying that no matter how rich you get,

only about half of them see perceive themselves as "very happy")

60

50

0

80

100

10

30

0

40

20

50 100 150 200

70

90

% who responded "very happy"

Inflation adjusted household income ($K per year)



Each bubble represents a set of samples surveyed –size of the

bubble represent the sample size

Positive correlation

(4) Happiness

Cross-country comparison of self-reported happiness does not seems to show any obvious patterns (certainly not income)

0 50 100 -100 -50

Brazil

Germany France

United-States Macedonia

Russian-Federation Bulgaria

Cameroon China

Ukraine United-Kingdom

Hong-Kong Pakistan Vietnam Morocco

Turkey Czech-Republic

Italy Serbia

Ireland Poland Tunisia

Portugal Iraq

Romania Palestine

Saudi-Arabia Philippines

Finland Azerbaijan

Peru Switzerland

Iceland Argentina

Ecuador Spain Japan

Singapore Georgia Austria

Sweden Armenia

Kenya India

Bosnia-and-Herzegovina South-Korea

Canada

Australia Mozambique

Afghanistan

Lebanon

Colombia Malaysia

Belgium

Neither

Unhappy

Happy

Question: As far as you are concerned, do you personally feel happy, unhappy or neither happy nor un-happy about your life?

Source: WIN-Gallup International Association (December 2012, n=55,817)

"Happiest"

"Unhappiest"

(4) Happiness

Agenda


• (2) Food supply

• (3) Liberty

• (4) Happiness



Average life expectancy

19

93

19

85

19

89

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79

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91

19

83

19

87

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81

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06

20

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19

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40

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50

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30

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66

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1

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0

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71

19

60

19

95

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99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

Average life expectancy (female)

Source: World Bank

Rwanda civil war

Each line represents a country or a region

Cambodian genocide

Appendix

Crude death rate

3.0%

4.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

19

60

1

96

1

19

62

1

96

3

19

64

1

96

5

Crude death rate (death as % of population each year) 1

96

6

19

67

1

96

8

19

69

1

97

0

19

71

1

97

2

19

73

1

97

4

19

75

1

97

6

19

77

1

97

8

19

79

19

80

1

98

1

19

82

1

98

3

19

84

1

98

5

19

86

1

98

7

19

88

1

98

9

19

90

1

99

1

19

92

1

99

3

19

94

1

99

5

19

96

1

99

7

19

98

1

99

9

20

00

2

00

1

20

02

2

00

3

20

04

20

05

2

00

6

20

07

2

00

8

20

09

2

01

0

20

11


Rwanda civil war

Cambodian genocide

Source: World Bank

Appendix

Infant mortality rate

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

19

60

1

96

1

19

62

1

96

3

19

64

1

96

5

Infant mortality rate (% of infant/child who dies in less than 5 years from birth) 1

96

6

19

67

1

96

8

19

69

1

97

0

19

71

1

97

2

19

73

1

97

4

19

75

1

97

6

19

77

1

97

8

19

79

1

98

0

19

81

1

98

2

19

83

1

98

4

19

85

19

86

1

98

7

19

88

1

98

9

19

90

1

99

1

19

92

1

99

3

19

94

1

99

5

19

96

1

99

7

19

98

1

99

9

20

00

2

00

1

20

02

20

03

2

00

4

20

05

2

00

6

20

07

2

00

8

20

09

2

01

0

20

11


Source: World Bank

Rwanda civil war

Appendix

Agenda


• (2) Food supply

• (3) Liberty

• (4) Happiness



World Population is rapidly growing

1250 1000 1750 1500 2000 2250

8,000

10,000

250 -1250 -1000 -1500 -1750

4,000

-2000

2,000

6,000

0

-500 -250 -750 0 500 750

~256

~7,123

~27

~9,235

~762

World population (Million people)

Year (AD)

Forecast

Historical

Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA

Appendix

Growth trajectory of world population has been driven by major social events - it truly accelerated after WWII

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

20

15

20

10

20

05

20

00

19

95

19

90

19

85

19

80

19

75

19

70

19

65

19

60

19

55

19

50

World Population (M)

Year

+1.7%

Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA

18

00

17

00

16

00

15

00

14

00

13

00

12

00

11

00

10

00

90

0

70

0

80

0

50

0

60

0

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

+0.2%

+0.1%

World population (M)

Year

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

19

50

19

00

18

50

18

00

17

50

World Population (M)

Year

+0.6%

~500 - 1750

(+0.1-0.2% p.a.)

~1750 - 1950

(+0.6% p.a.)

~1950 - today

(+1.7% p.a.)

~ Second Industrial Revolution (chemicals, electricity, oils, steels)

~First Industrial Revolution (textiles) and Agricultural Revolution

~End of World War II ~Mongolian

Conquests

~Black Death

Appendix

Disclaimer

This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from sources that I consider reliable, I do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments.

20130802 bh report: is the world a better place today?

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