157590592109 2110

PREPARED BY: DHARMESH R. CHOTALIYA (157590592109)

DHANKI D. SAMYAK (157590592110)

(MBA SEM-3)

SUBMITTED TO: Gujarat Technological University

COLLEGE:Shree H. N Shukla College of Management Studies, Rajkot

Technical analysis is a financial term used to denote asecurity analysis discipline for forecasting the direction ofprices through the study of past market data, primarily priceand volume.

Predicting the price movements in stock markets has been amajor challenge for traders.

The primary area of concern for any trader is to hit the idealtime to buy and sell.

Errors in stock prediction may cause many losses, so stockprediction is always an important point of research.

Technical Trading Strategies And the effect of triggerindicators, Authors: Robin L JUNGVIKEN Erik Lindquist Tutors:AGOSTINO MANDUCHI VIROJ , JIENWATCHARAMONGKHOL,JÖNKÖPING May 2012.

This thesis investigates whether technical trading rules, suchas simple moving average sand trigger indicators, have asignificant effect and can generate excess return against a simplebuy and hold strategy. By using technical analysis investors havebeen trying to predict and gain excess return on different marketsaround the world. Even though technical analysis is used by majorbanks, investment firms and for stock recommendations, theeffectiveness of technical analysis is debated.

Multi-objective Optimization of Technical Stock Market Indicatorsusing GAs Magda B. Fayek ,Computer Eng. Dpt., Faculty of Eng.,Cairo Univ., Giza, Egypt, Hatem M. El-Boghdadi,Computer Eng. Dpt.,Faculty of Eng., Cairo Univ., Giza, Egypt, International Journal ofComputerApplications (0975 – 8887)Volume 68–No.20, April 2013

Recent financial researches showed that technical indicators areuseful tools for stock prediction. Technical indicators are used togenerate trading signals (buy/sell) signals. The main problem of anindicator usage is to determine its appropriate parameters. In this papera new GA based technique for optimizing the parameters of a collectionof technical indicators over two objective functions Sharpe ratio andannual profit is proposed The technique handles four indicators DEMAC(Double Exponential Moving Average Crossovers), RSI (Relative StrengthIndex), MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and MARSI(Moving Average RSI) indicators.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and RandomWalkwere mostly used in the early stock marketpredictions. However, the growing research criticallyexamined EMH from the perspective of behavioraleconomics. Many studies shown that stock marketprediction do not follow a Random Walk and willindeed to some degree to be predicted. the stockmarket prediction is to be done with either technicalor fundamental indicators. The technical indicatorsare quantitative measure and are obtained from thehistorical data such as simple moving average,exponential moving average etc.

Comprehensive study on application of technical indictor’s on BSE index (SENSEX)

To measure market movements

Benchmark for funds performance

For index based derivative products

Provide guidelines to investors to invest at analysis of stock

To identify the inherent technical strength and weakness of the equity share

H0= ACCORDING TO SMA THE PERFORMANCE OF LAST FIVE YEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS POOR

H1= ACCORDING TO SMA THE PERFORMANCE OF LAST FIVE YEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS NOT POOR

HO= ACCORDING TO EMA THE PERFORMANCE OF LAST FIVE YEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS POOR

H1= ACCORDING TO EMA THE PERFORMANCE OF LAST FIVE YEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS NOT POOR

HO= ACCORDING TO RSI THE PERFORMANCE OF LAST FIVE YEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS POOR

H1 = ACCORDING TO RSI THE PERFORMANCE OF LAST FIVE YEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS NOT POOR

Source Of Data : Required Data Will Be Collected Through Secondary Sources

Research Study : Analytical Research

Tools & Techniques : 1. Simple moving average2. Exponential moving average3. Relative strength index

Time period : Last five year data in BSE (SENSEX)(2011- 2016)

Time limited restricts the study.

Knowledge of researcher is limited.

Only limited data are used.

The study only consider one variable BSE affect the organization other variable do not consider.

Result might not match with past research study because of the different time period.

Chapter 1 – overview of technical indictor (SMA, EMA, RSI)

Chapter 2 – conceptual frame work: BSE stock market treading

Chapter 3 – research planning procedure Chapter 4 – analysis & interpretation of data Chapter 5 – conclusion & recommendations Bibliography

Review of literature - 07days

Research design - 03 days

Administration of tools & data collection - 06 days

Data presentation & analysis & interpretation -10 days

Report writing - 15 days

Total 41 days will be taken by the researcher after approval of the research proposal.

Technical analysis is a technique which gives an idea about futureshare prices of selected companies in which we invest.

On the basis of the knowledge of technical analysis one canpredict the perfect investment decision of the stock market.

Market data include the price of a share or the level of a marketindex, volume (number of share traded).

Technical analysis of stock prices of different companies gives anidea that after the analysis the market position of share ofselected companies can be known and investor get a perfectknowledge of investment decision.

Researcher Himself

Investor

Analyst

Future researcher

Government

Credit rating agencies

This study increases the knowledge of the researcher.

He/she comes to know where the company or market is weak and strong.

And at last it is also helpful to submit this study as a grand project as a part of MBA study.

Thank