1 tsec-biosys: shaping the future bioeconomy theme 3: roland clift damiete ogunkunle philip...
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TSEC-BIOSYS: Shaping the Future Bioeconomy
www.tsec-biosys.ac.ukTheme 3:
Roland Clift Damiete Ogunkunle
Philip Sinclair
Centre for Environmental Strategy, University of SurreyBiomass role in the UK energy futures
The Royal Society, London: 28th & 29th July 2009
TSEC BiosysTSEC Biosys
TSEC BiosysTSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Sustainable developmentand sustainability
• Sustainable development meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987)
• Sustainable development involves participatory processes of interaction between the human economy, society and the environment (Mitchell et al, 2004)
• Sustainability is the possibility that humans and other life flourish on the Earth forever (Ehrenfeld, 2008)
• “Acid” test of a sustainable development framework: does it aid processes which support sustainable development to come into being?
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Multi-Criterion Decision Analysis(MCDA)
• Discrete, qualitative criteria and options for a decision are elicited from participants
• Learning leads to comparisons• Various methods are used to construct a view of
decision maker preferences consistent with a certain set of assumptions (e.g. reference level, value measurement, outranking; Belton and Stewart, 2002; Keeney and Raiffa, 1976)
• Areas of ignorance are recognised; uncertainties are due to the consequences of the incompleteness and fallibility of knowledge
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Scenarios:
“… plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions (“scenario logic”) about key relationships and driving forces…”
(Nakicenovic et al., UNDP, 2000)
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Characteristics of Biomass as an Energy Source:
Versatile but this means:• Multiple possible supply chains• Multiple possible uses • Different possible scales of implementation• No established infrastructure or market
i.e. both more complex and more complicated than other primary energy sources, with much scope for confusion of policy…
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Bioenergy: scales of operation
RCEPRCEPscenariosscenarios
Geographical and temporal scales for bioenergy technologies, comparative activities and scenarios (after Connors, 2007)
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Narratives
• Methods have been devised for writing narratives from qualitative systems models (e.g., Hector et al, 2007)
• Within this project, this method has been tested for the UK bioenergy system in a “narrative workshop”
• The evaluation of a narrative depends on the “decision frame” of the reader. The frame that a reader adopts is controlled partly by the content of the narrative and partly by the norms, habits and personal characteristics of the reader (Tversky and Kahneman, 1981).
• A set of narratives from this workshop, written for different audiences, are in evaluation with a range of different readers
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Systematic Process to Construct Narratives:
1. Workshop to: identify influences;
construct qualitative system model.
2. Use system model as a basis for writing “narratives” to explain options and possible scenarios and to inform quantitative modelling.
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
An example of a Trilemma - “The Archers Trilemma”
ECO-CENTRISM
SOCIAL EQUITY
FREE-MARKET CAPITALISM
SD
Ideals Avarice
Eco-system services
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
The Trilemma System Map
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Evaluation of this approach:
The effectiveness of the narratives is proven if
• (a) their informational content is consistent irrespective of the narrator
• (b) the learning of the reader is independent of the writing of the narrators
• EFFICIENCY – Very time-consuming…
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Future Directions
• Apply this approach to structuring other problems characterised by a large number of diverse influences and forces.
• Use qualitative and quantitative models to inform each other.
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Biomass Resources for Heat
Utopia Dystopia
Forestry biomass
Forestry biomass
Utopia
DystopiaWaste
biomass
Waste biomassUtopia
Dystopia
Agriculture
biomass
Agriculture
biomass
Ecosystem services
Rural economic development
“Likely” future
“Desirable” future
“As-Is”
Forestry products (available for energy)Forestry residuesClean wood industrial by-products
Organic Fraction of Municipal Solid Waste (OFMSW)Sewage sludgeCommercial industrial waste (mainly F&D industry)Other industrial co-products (e.g. black liquor)
Energy crops (woody and grassy)Agricultural residues (straw and other)
Waste minimisation
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys Interaction between
qualitative and quantitative (MARKAL) modelling:
Qualitative system models define the systems, i.e. supply chains and uses, to be represented in the MARKAL model scenarios.
Narratives condense the outcome of the MARKAL scenarios in a way which (should) make(s) them intelligible to a non-specialist (and possibly non-quantitative) audience
– SEE EXAMPLES
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