1 sustainable aquaculture trade meeting on fisheries, trade and development geneva 16 june 2010 dr....

1

Sustainable aquaculture trade

• Meeting on Fisheries, Trade and Development

• Geneva

• 16 June 2010

• Dr. Audun Lem, FAO

2

Outline

• World fish supply and demand– utilization and consumption– trade– prices– distribution

• Rise of aquaculture

• Conclusions

3

WORLD FISH SUPPLY

4

World fish production

Million t 2008 2009 2010e 2010/

2009

Capture 90 90 90 (0.1%)

Farmed 53 54 56 3.1%

Total 142 144 145 1.1%

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

AquacultureCatch

Millions of tonnes

FAO

World Fish Production

catch

aquaculture

6

Fish Utilization

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

OtherFEEDFOOD

Food uses

Feed

7

Per caput food supply (est)

Kg/year 2008 2009 2010 2010/09

Food fish

17.1 17.1 17.1 0.2%

Capture 9.3 9.2 9.1 -1.3%

Farmed 7.8 7.9 8.1 1.9%

8

Fish in overall protein supply

9

World aquaculture production 1950-2010: strong growth but slowing

down

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

AquacultureMillions of tonnes

aquaculture

10

Aquaculture producers 2008

ChinaIndiaVietNamIndonesiaThailandBangladeshJapanChileNorwayRest

China

11

Global Aquaculture Production

Rest of World

Asia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Pro

duct

ion

quan

tity

(ton

ne x

10

6)

China vs Rest of Asia

Rest of Asia

China

0

20

40

60

1950 1970 1990Year

Pro

duct

ion

quan

tity

(ton

ne x

10

6)

Asia incl. China

12

WORLD TRADE

13

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

Developing countriesor areas

Developed countriesor areas

World Fish Trade: Export Value - in 1000 USD -

developing

developed

14

WORLD FISH EXPORTS USD 102.2 BILLION (2008)

• TRADE GROWING UNTIL ‘08– + 9 % (2008/2007)

• 2008 EXPORTS & IMPORTS > USD 100 BILL for 1st time

• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES– 50 % OF WORLD EXPORTS

• NET EXPORT REVENUES FROM FISHERIES CRUCIAL FOR MANY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES – USD 26 bill. (2008)

15

WORLD FISH EXPORTS USD 94.5 BILLION (2009est)

• TRADE CRASHED IN 2009 (est 12 months)– - 7.5 % values– - 0.6 % volume (live weight conversion)

• est. 2009 EXPORTS USD 94.5 BILLION• est. 2009 IMPORTS USD 98.6 BILLION• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

– 2009: 51.7 % OF WORLD EXPORTS

16

Share of world fisheries production destined to exports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006

Production

Export

Million tonnes (live weight)

17

Norway6%

Canada4 %

Viet Nam4%

Chile4%

USA5%

Thailand6%

China10%

Russia2%

Indonesia2%

EU (25)26%

Main fish exporters 2008 (value)

18

Main fish importers (2008)

• Japan USD 14.5 bill. 13.8 %

• US USD 14.1 bill. 13.5 %

• EU USD 45.0 bill. 46.8 %

• Total big 3 USD 73.6 bill. 68.1 %

• Total world USD 108 bill. 100 %

19

Main fish importers (2009/2008)

• Japan USD 13.2 bill. - 9 %

• US USD 13.1 bill. - 7 %

• EU USD 39.5 bill. -13 %

• Total big 3 USD 65.8 bill. - 11 %

• Total world USD 98.5 bill. -8.8%

20

Fish market trends• Japan: long-term decline but small rebound 2008, decline in 2009

– high consumption but falling: 65 kg/kaput– imports below 3 million tons in 2007

• USA: long-term growth, will overtake Japan as # 1 country– rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg

• consumer confidence falling late 2008 and 2009 • 2010 turn-around

• EU: long-term growth: # 1 market – expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg– rising imports: e.g. catfish from Viet Nam, mussels from Chile

21

Distribution

• 66 % of world imports by three markets• within these markets: supermarkets represent

50-85 % of retail sales• concentration of sales whereas industry remains

fragmented• tendency in developing countries: urbanization• at the same time: seafood retail net margins

reportedly low compared to other food products

22

Future ?

• Supply side: more concentration in aquaculture for some species (salmon, European bass/bream, turbot. Shrimp ?)– focus on costs, economies of scale– focus on marketing and distribution– market and product segmentation

• Demand: retail concentration in developed and developing• But aquaculture has some advantages over wild:

– standardized product, size– traceability– predictability– contracts on price and volumes

23

ISSUES OF IMPACT

24

Global trend of outsourcing of both production and processing

• Asia (China, Thailand, Viet Nam)• but also

– Morocco (canning)– Poland/Baltic countries (marinades, smoking)

• Growing share of production in developing countries, esp. of aquaculture– Europe, North America and Japan import farmed

products from Asia, South And Central America

25

Role of China in production

World capture and aquaculture production

World excluding

China

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

Year

Mil

lio

n t

on

nes

26

The next China: Viet Nam

• 2008: Nr 5 among world exporters– much of which is farmed: catfish, shrimp

– but a growing importer as well

• reprocessing

• domestic consumption

27

Commodity prices

• fish versus other food ?

28

Food prices, excl. fish

29

And fish ?

Turbot - In Spain, origin: Spain

5.07.09.0

11.013.015.017.019.0

Jun-

06

Oct

-06

Feb

-07

Jun-

07

Oct

-07

Feb

-08

Jun-

08

Oct

-08

Feb

-09

Jun-

09

Oct

-09

Feb

-10

Jun-

10

Fresh - whole, cultured 0.5-1kg/pc1-2 kg/pc2-4 kg/pc3-4 kg/pcEUR/kg

9.00

9.95

8.15

8.60

Squid - In Italy, origin: South Africa

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Jun-

06

Oct

-06

Feb

-07

Jun-

07

Oct

-07

Feb

-08

Jun-

08

Oct

-08

Feb

-09

Jun-

09

Oct

-09

Feb

-10

Jun-

10

Squid - Whole,FAS, size M

EUR/kg

4.50

Salmon - In Europe, origin: Norw ay

2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.0

Jun-

04

Oct

-04

Feb

-05

Jun-

05

Oct

-05

Feb

-06

Jun-

06

Oct

-06

Feb

-07

Jun-

07

Oct

-07

Feb

-08

Jun-

08

Oct

-08

Feb

-09

Jun-

09

Oct

-09

Feb

-10

Jun-

10

Fresh, gutted, head-on, 3-5 kg/pcEUR/kg

5.50

Seabass and Seabream - In Italy, origin: Greece

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jun-

06

Oct

-06

Feb

-07

Jun-

07

Oct

-07

Feb

-08

Jun-

08

Oct

-08

Feb

-09

Jun-

09

Oct

-09

Feb

-10

Jun-

10

Seabass fresh whole 300-450 gr/pc

Seabream fresh whole 300-450 gr/pcEUR/kg

4.35

4.60

30

The FAO Fish price index;(1998-2000 = 100)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1994-0

1

1995-0

1

1996-0

1

1997-0

1

1998-0

1

1999-0

1

2000-0

1

2001-0

1

2002-0

1

2003-0

1

2004-0

1

2005-0

1

2006-0

1

2007-0

1

2008-0

1

2009-0

1

FAO total fish price index

Capture total

Aquaculture Total

31

FUTURE FISH PRICES ?

• DEMAND: slowly rising– because of population growth– small underlying increase in per kaput consumption

• SUPPLY– capture: stable, not increasing– aquaculture: increasing but declining growth– unknowns: climate change, disease, but also technology improvements

• PRICE IMPACT ?– most probably slightly higher fish prices but not much– price cycles in commodity markets– industry profitability through product development, technological

innovation and cost reduction, targeted marketing

32

AQUACULTURE FUTURE

• fastest growing food producing sector in the world• accounts for almost 50% of the global food fish• 53 million tons of fish produced worth USD 98

billion (2008)• Given the projected population growth, an

additional 40 million tons of aquatic food needed by 2030 to maintain current per caput consumption.

33

Sustainable trade

• Trade in fish is governed by WTO trade rules (NAMA)

• Sustainability issues:– how to ensure sustainable production ?– how to ensure sustainable aquaculture

development ?– how to ensure sustainable aquaculture trade ?

34

Aquaculture development

• many countries prioritize an export driven aquaculture development– export markets, economic activities

• but other elements are essential as well– social issues– environmental issues

• for long-term sustainable growth, all three elements must be included– an ecosystem based development

• NB: Aquaculture development is also a societal choice

35

FAO Guidelines

• Responsible fish trade. FAO Technical Guidelines for Responsible Fisheries. No. 11. Rome, FAO. 2009

• Draft guidelines: The ecosystem approach to aquaculture (EAA)

• Draft guidelines for Aquaculture certification– on agenda for COFI-AQ in September 2010

36

CONCLUSIONS

• Fish has always been a globalized commodity– but of higher importance for developing countries than most other commodities

• Fish production is increasing, but only thanks to aquaculture: 47% share in 2009 in food fish

• Fish trade trend is positive: USD 100 billion in 2008, but drop in 2009• New growth in trade in 2010 • Fish trade: big 3 import 66 % but in decline• Outsourcing of production and processing

– Rise of China and Viet Nam, and Russia– Future: India ?

• Aquaculture will determine overall future supply– the ecosystem approach to aquaculture focuses on the environmental context

including the rights of stakeholders– sustainable aquaculture development must build on inclusion of economic, social

and environmental criteria

37

THANK YOU