1 cosmic - solar beyond the ipcc consensus francis massen

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Cosmic - Solar

beyond the IPCC consensus

Francis Massenhttp://meteo.lcd.lu

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Remember:

1972

In 1972 the Club of Rome published its landmark report, Limits to Growth, which dramatically predicted the inevitable collapse of civilization unless economic growth was halted immediately

The only solution to avoid this horrible outcome? Strict government-imposed controls on just about everything and a restriction of average industrial output per capita at about the 1975 level.

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remember:

1975

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Newsweek

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The Little Ice Age (LIA)

From 1400 -1600(?) to 1850(?) At least 1°C colder Probably global, not only NH Not uniform

(time/regional)

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Maunder Minimum

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Solar irradiance variation

1880

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Be10 = solar activity proxy (ice core)

Inverted scale

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C14 = solar activity proxy (tree rings)

Red + Green = Be10

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Solar wind

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Solar wind speed

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Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR)

GCR =electronsprotons (90%)helium (9%)other nuclei(all elements)

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GCR modulation by solar activity

Active sun > many sun spots > strong solar wind > blown away GCRs > less Be10 + C14

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Decreasing GCR

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Cosmic shower (here iron)

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Ion density

low

middle

high

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GCR >>> CCN

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GCR and clouds

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GCR >>> clouds

Low clouds ( < 3.2 km)

Middle clouds ( 3.2- 6.5 km)

High clouds ( > 6.5 km)

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Cloud forcings

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GRC and low cloud cover

measured low cloud cover

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TSI - GCR - cloud cover

Inverted scale!

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Sky experiment Svensmark, Danish National Spacecenter, 2005

“Natural” Cosmic rays > free electrons > clustering > CCN

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CERN: CLOUD project (J. Kirkby, 2007-2010?)

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Radiative heating

IPPC: CO2 emissions = + 1.66 W/m2Palle: warming due to the reduction in cloud cover 1993 to 2001 = + 7.5 W/m2

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IPCC consensus forcingsLOSU = level of scientific understanding

high

low

( Change relative to pre-industrial 1750 situation)

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IPCC concensus ignored climate forcings

Cosmic rays UV increase (10 times TSI increase) Ocean emissivity (positive solar feedback) Albedo decrease (greening earth) ????

IPCC climate sensitivity Cs = dT/Σforcings = 0.75K/(Wm-2) probably much too high i.e. wrong!

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Dirty snow

June 2007IPCC: < 7%

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Decreasing AOT (atmospheric optical thickness)

AOT is a measure of the atmosphere’s turpitude at a special wavelength. AOT = [0…1]

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Prof. Akasufo (director of the Arctic International Research Center)

March 2007

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GCM models unreliable

Observation

Arctic Winter 1954-2003

Model (hindcast)

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Prof. S. Akasufo (director of the Arctic International Research Center)

There is so far no definitive proof that most of the “observed” warming is due to the (man made) greenhouse effect (March 2007)

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Prof. R. Lindzen, MIT

Die heutige Unruhe hat ihre Ursachen zum grössten Teil in mangelnden Kenntnissen, was bei Wetter und Klima normal ist…

Sämtliche Untersuchungen zu den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels gehen von einer langen Kette von Voraussetzungen aus, und es besteht nur eine sehr geringe Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Folgen dieser Kette richtig vorausgesagt werden [Cicerone, Juni 07]

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Prof. Roger Pielke, Univ. of Boulder

June 2007

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Helmut Schmidt

May 2007

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Censuring GW sceptics

Question parlementaire 1743

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Web (1) http://meteo.lcd.lu

The Global Warming Sceptic

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Web (2)

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Books

M. Leroux2005

Singer/Avery2006

P. Michaels2005

Svensmark/Calder2007

P. Michaels2000

Pielke&Cotton, 2007

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Global temperature anomaly (versus mean of 1901-2000) and CO2 for 2002-2006: no more warming!

NCDC (National Climatic Data Center)

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The new indulgence (Der neue Ablass)

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Merci de votre attention…