american university black swing voter project · david barker sam fulwood iii leonard steinhorn...

American University Black Swing Voter Project

David BarkerSam Fulwood III

Leonard Steinhorn

JULY 2020

ABOUT THE BLACK SWING VOTER SURVEY

• Total sample of N=1,215 African Americans, with an oversample of 593 under 30 years of age

• Sample drawn exclusively from 2020 battleground states: • The Rust Belt (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin)• The Southeast Sun Belt (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina)

• Survey conducted online

• The sample was randomly drawn from large, representative, opt-in survey panels online

• The sample is weighted to the Black/African American population of adults in each state, and by gender, age, and education

• The survey was collected by the African American Research Collaborative

• Field Dates: July 1 to July 9, 2020

• Margin of Error: ± 2.8% (full sample); ± 5% (under 30) 6.9% (within states); ± 8% (under 30 vote choice question)

Black Swing Voter Project 2Black Swing Voter Project

OVERVIEW

• Vote Choice/The Candidates• Motivation to Vote• Attitudes toward the Parties• Attitudes toward the Political System, Elected Officials, Police,

and the Criminal Justice System


BIDEN v. TRUMPAll respondents

Black Swing Voter Project 5

Trump7%

Biden 66%

Will not vote11%

Someone else6%

Not sure10%

Black Swing Voter Project

BIDEN v. TRUMP18-29


60+Trump

7%

Biden 70%

Will not vote8%

Someone else4%

Not sure11%

Trump4%

Biden 86%

Will not vote5%

Someone else3%

Not sure2%Trump

8%

Biden 47%

Will not vote21%

Someone else12%

Not sure12%

30-59


BIDEN’S VP PICKPercentage of respondents who say they will vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, if he picks a Black

woman as his running mate. Total figure boosted by some who said initially they didn’t plan to vote for him.


73%

81%

92%

60+ 30-59 18-29


TRUMP EVALUATIONSWhen it comes to your view of President Donald Trump, please indicate whether you believe the following statements are true or false? (% Total Agree)


79%

74%

73%

41%

35%

22%

90%

90%

87%

17%

10%

6%

He is racist

He is incompetent

I disagree with most of his policies

He has not done a bad job overall

I like his strength & defiance

He is doing a good job 18-29 60+


WHEN THINKING ABOUT PRESIDENT TRUMP, WHAT ONE OR TWO WORDS COME TO MIND? (Full Sample)


WHEN THINKING ABOUT PRESIDENT TRUMP, WHAT ONE OR TWO WORDS COME TO MIND? (18-29)


WHEN THINKING ABOUT VICE-PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN,WHAT ONE OR TWO WORDS COME TO MIND?(Full Sample)


3DJH��

GoodOk

IdkNothingOld

Cool

Great

NiceSmart

BadKind

CreepyObama

Trustworthy

Amazing

Awesome

like

Rapist

Fake

presidentCaring Racist

Sneaky

Hate Fair

yes

Dumb WhiteHelpful

LiarBitch

Love

people

Crazy

Democrat

Hard

FoolishCompetition

Awful

Working

Fuck

Passionate

DedicatedIdc

MeanFollower

stupid

trash

Fun

Arrogant

Confused

bold

leaderbest

Money

HopeOdd

knowledge

Free

Cake

Care

WORSER

Help

Voice

WeedElected

Engaging

Innovation

cluelessHappy

UneducatedLovable

Congress

Unstable

rudeAgreeable

open

Humble

job

Shady ready

minded

Groupie

Entitled

blessBoring

INSINCEREfucker

Joe

Delusional

Candidate

Excellent

Suck

Pedophile

Worthless

Inconsiderate

hired

Grassroots

Intermediate

)LOWHU��8QZHLJKWHG��EDVH�Q� ��ILOWHUHG�RXW

WHEN THINKING ABOUT VICE-PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN,WHAT ONE OR TWO WORDS COME TO MIND? (18-29)


IN THEIR OWN WORDS:YOUNG BLACK AMERICANS DESCRIBE TRUMP & BIDEN

Negative90%

Neutral5%

Unambigiously positive

5%

TRUMP

13

Negative31%

Neutral23%

Unambigiously positive

46%

BIDEN


CERTAINTY OF VOTINGThinking ahead to the November election, how motivated are you to vote?


29%

52%

72%

78%

17%

15%

7%

5%

23%

17%

9%

5%

17%

8%

2%

7%

14%

8%

9%

5%

18 - 29

30 - 44

45 - 59

60 +

I will definitely vote I will probably vote Chances are 50-50 that I will vote I will probably not vote I will definitely not vote


PERCENTAGE WHO AGREE WITH EACH OF THE STATEMENTS ABOUT VOTING (18-29)


79%

76%

75%

70%

I will vote to support the African American community

I am passionate about certain issues

I want to get rid of Donald Trump

It is my duty


HOW WELCOMING ARE POLITICAL PARTIES?Percentage of respondents who believe the Democratic and Republican

parties are welcoming to African Americans.


27%

47%

7%

77%

RepublicanParty

DemocraticParty

60+ 18-29


WHOM DO YOU TRUST? Percentage of respondents who trust Democrats and Republicans in

Congress to do what is best for the Black community


8%

73%

29%

44%

Republicans in Congress

Democrats in Congress

18-29 60+


WHO WILL LOOK OUT FOR YOU?How much do you believe each of the following will look out for you in

uncertain or difficult economic times? (Mean score, full sample, on a 10-point scale)


4.49 5.04 5.55 5.423.97

5.856.99

5.06

The federal governmentin Washington

My local government Community institutionslike a church or nonprofit

Local businesses

18-29 60+ Scale: 1=Definitely not; 10=Definitely will


DO ELECTED LEADERS IN WASHINGTON LOOK OUT FOR PEOPLE LIKE ME?


47%

33%

17%

Agree

60+ 30-59 18-29

DO ELECTED LEADERS IN WASHINGTON LOOK OUT FOR THE WEALTHY AND WELL-CONNECTED?


85%

86%

97%

Agree

60+ 30-59 18-29

WHO ARE EFFECTIVE CHANGE AGENTS?Let's say you wanted to change something in your city or local community, such as addressing police brutality or police practices that concern you. How effective do

you think the following are in making sure that change takes place?


7.076.56

6.285.97

5.805.59

5.445.37

5.215.18

Black Lives MatterBlack elected officials

ProtestorsEducators

Business leadersJournalists

Elected officialsClergy/religious leaders

Grassroots activistsGrassroots organizations

Mean score, 18-29 sample, On 10-point scale 1=Not at all effective; 10=Highly effective


EXPERIENCES WITH THE POLICE


Do you fear that the police may harm you or people that you care about?


80

71

70

60+ 30-59 18-29

IS JUSTICE BLIND? Some people say that the criminal justice system is generally fair to all people without

regard to race, while others say that there is systemic racism in the criminal justice system such that Black/African American people are often treated unfairly.


82%

84%

96%

60+ 30-59 18-20


WHEN THINKING ABOUT BLACK LIVES MATTER,WHAT ONE OR TWO WORDS COME TO MIND?


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Many thanks to our generous sponsors for providing invaluable resources for this study


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Thanks to the individuals who provided important contributions to this project:


Henry FernandezAfrican American Research Collaborative

Ray Block Penn State University

Amy Dacey Sine Institute of Policy & Politics

Jan LeighleyAmerican University

Dan Myers American University

Cathy Cohen University of Chicago

Marcus JohnsonAmerican University

La’Nasa Clarkson American University

Isaiah Bailey The Hub Project

Stasha RhodesThe Hub Project

Bryan BennettThe Hub Project

Angela Hanks Groundwork Collaborative

Max SteinhornQuadrant Strategies

Amanda Fulwood Design Consultant

FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT

David Barker: [email protected] Fulwood III: [email protected] Steinhorn: [email protected]


mailto:[email protected]



american university black swing voter project · david barker sam fulwood iii leonard steinhorn...

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