swing voter project (svp)...in our first session, the four swing voters planning to vote for biden...
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SWING VOTER PROJECT (SVP) REPORT FOR JUNE 2020
ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA ONLINE FOCUS GROUPS
OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH:
Engagious conducted two online focus groups with a total of nine swing voters from
Erie, PA on June 16. Six voted for President Obama in 2012 and then President Trump in
2016, and three voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and then Hillary Clinton in 2016. The
first group contained five respondents, and the second group consisted of four
respondents. We explored questions and topics surrounding the president, Joe Biden,
the coronavirus, and racial issues in America.
DISCLAIMER:
The key findings in this report are based upon the opinions and feedback from nine
swing voters in one location. They do not represent the views of all swing voters.
TERMS OF USE:
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https://engagious.com/swingvoters/
Example: “30% of female respondents disagreed with the Medicare statement”
(according to research conducted by Engagious/Schlesinger Group).
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www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
2www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
KEY FINDINGS
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1PRESIDENT TRUMP IS LOSING SUPPORT FROM
OBAMA-TRUMP VOTERS WHILE FAILING TO WIN OVER
ROMNEY-CLINTON VOTERS.
If the presidential election were held tomorrow, seven would vote for former Vice
President Biden, including four Obama-Trump voters and all three Romney-Clinton voters.
Only two would vote for President Trump again, both Obama-Trump voters. Despite the
relatively small sample size of swing voters, it’s notable that this is the first time in the 16
months we have been conducting this research that President Trump has faced more
opposition than support.
Hypothetically, if the U.S. Constitution didn’t prevent presidents from serving a third term,
and former President Obama became the Democratic nominee, challenging President
Trump’s bid for re-election, eight would vote for President Obama, including five Obama-
Trump voters and all three Romney-Clinton voters. Only one Obama-Trump voter would
stick with President Trump, indicating a substantial decline in support for him, especially
compared to previous months, where President Trump has fared well in this hypothetical
matchup.
If they were placing a $100 bet on the outcome of the election, Romney-Clinton voters are
very confident that Joe Biden would win, scoring this 1.7/10 (from “You are totally confident
Joe Biden will win” to “You are totally confident President Trump will win”). Obama-Trump
voters are far less certain about the outcome of the election, on average, scoring it 4.8/10,
suggesting they are only slightly confident in a Biden victory this November.
Respondents rated how likely they are to vote for President Trump this autumn. Obama-
Trump voters scored this 4.2/10 (from “You are extremely unlikely to vote for President
Trump” to “You are extremely likely to vote for President Trump”), while Romney-Clinton
voters scored this 0/10.
Among the four Obama-Trump voters who would support Biden, we heard the following:
• He will stand for the country, won’t go back on his word, and will give the country
what they want to have: stability.
• He will bring respect back to the presidency and to our country.
• He has the experience to do the job.
• He’s ready to meet the challenge to “make our country great again.”
• With each passing day, there’s more negativity and we need change.
• He’s the alternative to President Trump, the “lesser of two evils.”
• President Trump has “offensive” reactions to events.
3www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
KEY FINDINGS
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Romney-Clinton voters supporting Biden cited these points:
• It’s an opportunity to stabilize the country – I don’t have faith in our current
leadership and Biden is the alternative.
• Our country is in a “shambles” and another four years of President Trump will leave
us without any allies in Europe.
• Trump’s cabinet is dishonest.
Among the two Obama-Trump voters sticking with President Trump, we heard this:
• The country was in “good shape” before this pandemic happened, with low
unemployment – I’m not sure why we wouldn’t want him for another four years.
• He was doing a “really good job” with the economy and the stock market before
the pandemic and once we get out of it, he will do more good for the economy
than Biden will.
If former President Bush were to cross party lines and endorse Biden, that would not move
either of the Obama-Trump voters planning to stick with President Trump toward voting
for Biden. In fact, it would reaffirm their support for President Trump. One respondent is a
teacher who “hates” Bush for “No Child Left Behind” and the other respondent told us he
wasn’t a fan of either of the Bushes and he would “definitely still go with Trump” if Bush
were to endorse Biden.
These swing voters listed the one word they would use to describe what life in America is
going to be like between now and the election:
• Unbearable
• Turmoil
• Shit-show
• Chaotic
• Exhausting
• Financial crisis
• Cautious
• Stressful
• Anxious
In our first session, the four swing voters planning to vote for Biden (two Obama-Trump
voters and two Romney-Clinton voters) didn’t necessarily believe that a Biden victory in
November would reduce the negativity they are feeling now and expect to feel through the
election. They believe it will take time for things to calm down, but their primary concern is
getting President Trump out of office. They remarked that so many people are unhappy
right now and people are just “over it” and “ready for any kind of change.” There isn’t a high
degree of enthusiasm for Biden among these voters, but they are enthusiastic about the
change from President Trump that he would bring to the country.
4www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
KEY FINDINGS
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All nine respondents told us America needs a more conciliatory president who talks about
bringing the country together rather than a president who is combative with a take-no-
prisoners style, and almost everyone agreed that Biden’s style is more conciliatory. Those
planning to vote for Trump justify their decision to stick with him by placing a higher level
of importance on how the economy performs in the future than on the president’s style—
and they believe President Trump will be better than Biden on the economy.
Obama-Trump voters planning to vote for Biden told us if Trump wanted to win them back,
he should:
• Be a decisive leader, recognizing that it could be life and death when you’re making
decisions for the country.
• Quit being a “jerk” – fewer snide remarks.
• Get off Twitter.
5www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
KEY FINDINGS
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2ON AVERAGE, THESE SWING VOTERS DISAPPROVE
OF PRESIDENT TRUMP’S HANDLING OF THE
CORONAVIRUS SITUATION, WHICH WILL BE A TOP
VOTING ISSUE FOR THEM THIS YEAR.
Respondents listed the most important voting issue for them right now:
• The economy/economic development (4)
• Being safe during the pandemic
• Having a leader who will help us move forward and prepare us for the next
pandemic
• Having an honest leader
• Education
If we had asked them back in January or February what their top voting would be in the
upcoming election, most would have provided the same response. Two respondents
would have provided a different answer months ago, including the economy (now: having
a leader who will help us move forward and prepare us for the next pandemic) and
education (now: economic development).
Respondents rated how strongly they approve or disapprove of President Trump’s
handling of the coronavirus situation, with Obama-Trump voters scoring it 5.0/10 (from
“strongly disapprove” to “strongly approve”), and Romney-Clinton voters scoring it 0/10.
Those who scored President Trump low for his handling of the coronavirus situation
criticized him for not taking the problem seriously back in December when we learned
about it. During that time, they said, we should have been making tests and preparing for
it with regard to public safety, but we did not. Now, the United States is the epicenter of
the virus. Instead, President Trump called it a “hoax” and he hasn’t provided transparency
in handling the situation. Also, they criticized him for not trusting those who are more
informed about the issue. In their view, he wasn’t looking out for the best interest of the
entire nation. The U.S. doesn’t feel secure right now, especially with the civil unrest taking
away our attention from focusing on addressing this pandemic.
Respondents who were neutral or slightly approved of President Trump’s handling of the
coronavirus situation told us this whole situation is so unprecedented that it’s difficult to
evaluate the job he’s doing when no one else has been in his shoes. This situation has
been challenging and he’s doing the best he can. He has done a few good things to
respond to the coronavirus, but he waited too long to act, especially with getting personal
protective equipment to hospitals in the beginning of these events.
6www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
KEY FINDINGS
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Interestingly, these swing voters don’t approve very much of Governor Wolf’s handling of
the coronavirus situation, with Obama-Trump voters scoring this 3.3/10 (“from strongly
disapprove” to “strongly approve”), and Romney-Clinton voters scoring this 5.0/10.
Among those who disapprove of Governor Wolf’s handling of the coronavirus situation,
we heard he knew in advance that Pennsylvania might become a hotbed for it and he
hasn’t implemented an approach to tackle it and keep it contained using scientific data.
Also, some are dissatisfied that he’s re-opening other counties around them but not Erie
County. One Obama-Trump voter remarked that a lot of people in the area are suffering
economically, suggesting that keeping businesses closed prolongs that suffering. Those
who scored Governor Wolf’s handling of the coronavirus situation more positively told us
he took a lot of safety precautions and this is a new type of challenge for him.
Respondents estimated which number comes closest to the number of people who have
died from COVID-19 in the United States since the outbreak first surfaced some months
ago, with the choices being 60,000, 80,000, 100,000, 120,000, and 140,000. The nine
respondents evenly split their answers among 100k, 120k, and 140k, with no one
choosing either of the other much-lower figures. Apparently, the 100,000 death threshold
resulting from COVID-19 has stuck with these swing voters.
It’s notable that their confidence in President Trump’s leadership has taken a hit
compared to four months ago.
Compared to four months ago, would you say...
TOTAL SWING
VOTERS
You were confident in President Trump’s leadership
then, and you’re still confident now3
You were confident in President Trump’s leadership
then, but you’re less confident now1
You were not confident in President Trump’s
leadership then, but you’re more confident now1
You were not confident in President Trump’s
leadership then, and you’re still not confident now4
A slight majority—five of nine—are “not confident” or “less confident” in President Trump
now. They cited these reasons:
• President Trump’s “ridiculous” responses, which are more troubling than usual
because the pandemic has impacted so many lives (the stakes are higher).
• He didn’t take the pandemic seriously enough and respond as quickly as he
should have to meet the needs of our country.
• He lacks empathy.
7www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
KEY FINDINGS
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3THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN, RESULTING FROM THE
PANDEMIC, HAS THESE SWING VOTERS WORRIED ABOUT
THEIR FINANCIAL FUTURE.
Almost all our swing voters are more worried about what could happen to their financial
health than their physical health over the next few months, including four Obama-Trump
voters and all three Romney-Clinton voters. Only two – both Obama-Trump voters – are
more worried about what could happen to their physical health over the next few months.
Respondents told us the one emotion they have felt most over the past week1:
• Anxious/Stressed/Angst (3)
• Depression
• Uncertainty
• Frustration
• Fear (of another financial crisis)
• Betrayal
All nine indicated they have a friend or family member who has lost a job or has been
furloughed in the past two months. Notably, none of them have personally lost their job or
been furloughed.
The local economy is “bad” because they are stuck in the “yellow phase” of re-opening,
which is restrictive. One respondent remarked that he was born and raised in Erie and the
local economy is probably the worst it’s ever been, with many companies leaving over the
years and now experiencing a pandemic. Respondents told us the local economy won’t
recover until they are in the “green phase”—the least restrictive in the re-opening of
businesses.
These swing voters told us the most important thing President Trump could say to them
right now:
• We’re going to do all we can for small businesses.
• He wants to save America.
• Stay calm: The energy industry will be fine.
• There’s a medication in place so there won’t be so many deaths from COVID-19.
• He’ll get the economy where it needs to be and the children back in school, safe
and learning.
• Call for unity.
1One respondent didn’t provide a response.
8www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
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4DESPITE THE PANDEMIC, MOST OF THESE SWING
VOTERS BELIEVE THEY’RE BETTER OFF NOW THAN THEY
WERE FOUR YEARS AGO; HOWEVER, AMERICA IS NOT
BETTER OFF NOW.
Seven of our nine respondents believe they’re better off now than they were four years
ago, including six Obama-Trump voters and one Romney-Clinton voter. Respondents
cited these reasons:
• Being better off financially overall
• Getting a better job
• Enjoying employment security – no layoffs or pay freezes
• Having the ability to buy a new home
• Achieving “personal growth” with more education
Notably, only one of our swing voters, an Obama-Trump voter, believes America is better
off now than it was four years ago, remarking that our economy is “a bit stronger” now.
Compared to February, six say they’re in “the same financial position,” including five
Obama-Trump voters and one Romney-Clinton voter. Three told us they’re in “a worse
financial position,” including one Obama-Trump voter and two Romney-Clinton voters.
None of our respondents indicated they’re in “a better financial position” compared to
February.
9www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
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5THESE SWING VOTERS ARE HEARING VERY LITTLE, IF
ANYTHING, FROM JOE BIDEN ABOUT THE
CORONAVIRUS SITUATION OR OTHER ISSUES.
Respondents rated how familiar they are with Joe Biden’s comments about what he would
do differently from President Trump with regard to the coronavirus situation, with
Obama-Trump voters scoring this 4.7/10 (from “not at all familiar” to “very familiar”), and
Romney-Clinton voters scoring this 6.0/10.
They also rated how strongly they approve or disapprove of what Joe Biden has
communicated to the public during the coronavirus situation, with Obama-Trump voters
scoring this 5.5/10 (from “strongly disapprove” to “strongly approve”), and Romney-Clinton
voters scoring this 5.3/10.
Respondents struggled to tell us the most recent thing they have heard Biden say about
anything. Some have turned off the news over the past few weeks by choice. Other
respondents listed:
• Comments about the pandemic
• Intent to rebuild the middle class
• A detailed plan about gun violence prevention
These swing voters listed the most important thing Biden can say to them right now:
• He’s going to find a way to handle the key problems our country is experiencing
right now, including racial tensions, the economy, and businesses going under.
• He has real thoughts about how we’re going to enact economic change for the
good of the middle class and neediest people.
• He’s going to help small businesses deal with the coronavirus.
• He’s going to do what’s right for children who need public education.
• Be patient: Police reform is coming.
• We’re all in this together.
• We’re going to rebuild all businesses, not just small businesses, and make them
better than they were before the pandemic.
• He wants to put people back to work.
10www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
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6THESE SWING VOTERS WERE SHOCKED AND
HORRIFIED BY GEORGE FLOYD’S DEATH, AND THEIR
REACTION TO PRESIDENT TRUMP’S RESPONSE HAS
BEEN MOSTLY NEGATIVE.
When our swing voters first saw the videos and photos of George Floyd’s arrest, they
experienced a variety of emotions. They were horrified, fearful, angry, shocked,
disappointed, and traumatized.
Respondents told us they agree that people have the right to protest for justice, but at
some point it stopped being a protest and turned into violence, giving the protests as a
whole a “negative connotation.” These protests keep “fanning the flames” and are causing
more division in our country. Violence isn’t going to solve anything. They need to go about
protesting in a different way because they’re not being very constructive at this point.
Instead of the current protests, they could participate in letter-writing campaigns or
advocacy work. Also, we need to worry about the spread of COVID-19. Some of our swing
voters resent that “our entire year has been taken away from us” with them unable to
attend and participate in public events, including weddings and funerals. Meanwhile,
thousands of people are gathering with no masks to cause a huge commotion while a
pandemic is going on.
Their reaction to President Trump’s response has been mostly negative. They rated how
strongly they agree or disagree with this statement, “President Trump is not responsible
for racial problems that have existed in America for centuries, but he is responsible for
fanning the flames of racial tension in the wake of the George Floyd incident,” with
Obama-Trump voters scoring this 6.5/10 (from “totally disagree” to “totally agree”), and
Romney-Clinton voters scoring this 10/10.
Respondents criticized him for escalating the tensions in the country, especially with his
tweet declaring, “When the looting starts, the shooting starts.” He had an opportunity to
bring people together and instead took a bad situation and made it worse. He should
have addressed the nation with a planned speech to calm the nation.
President Trump didn’t do himself any favors in his bid for re-election with these swing
voters when he stood outside a church near the White House and held a Bible up in the
air, with one respondent calling it a “dog and pony show.” Respondents rated how that
image made them feel, with Obama-Trump voters scoring it 3.5/10 (from “I hated it” to “I
loved it”), and Romney-Clinton voters scored it 0/10.
One respondent defended President Trump’s response, saying he’s trying to keep streets
safe and stop the violence. Also, she pointed out that Bill Clinton did the same photo-op
with the Bible in front of the church and no one criticized him for it. President Trump is
doing his best to keep our cities safe.
11www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
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These swing voters rated how strongly they agree or disagree with this statement, “The
problems that Americans witnessed in the Minneapolis police department are common.
There is systemic racism in police departments all across the U.S.,” with Obama-Trump
voters scoring this 5.5/10 (from “totally disagree” to “totally agree”), and Romney-Clinton
voters scoring this 6.3/10.
Also, they rated how strongly they agree or disagree with this statement, “The actions of
the police officer responsible for George Floyd’s death were motivated by racism, and he
would NOT have knelt on the neck of a white suspect,” with both subgroups of swing
voters agreeing with this. Obama-Trump voters scored it 6.0/10, and Romney-Clinton
voters scored it 8.0/10.
Respondents indicated which of five actions they have taken over the past few weeks, if
any, as it relates to the protests and racial justice. Among the three Obama-Trump voters
who took any of these actions, two posted a comment on social media critical of those
calling for racial justice, one posted a comment on social media in support of racial justice,
one donated money to an organization calling for racial justice, no one donated money to
an organization critical of protestors calling for racial justice, and no one attended a
protest in person. Romney-Clinton voters took none of these five actions.
12www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
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7 MANY SWING VOTERS BELIEVE THE PROTESTERS HAVE
MADE THEIR POINT AND SHOULD STOP PROTESTING.
Respondents rated how strongly they agree or disagree with this statement, “I totally
support weeding out ‘bad apple’ police officers, but after three weeks I feel like the
protesters have made their point and should stop protesting,” with Obama-Trump voters
scoring this 7.5/10 (from “totally disagree” to “totally agree”), and Romney-Clinton voters
scoring this 8.3/10.
Our swing voters described their views of the country’s reaction to George Floyd’s death.
They believe protesting should be done peacefully with dignity and respect, but that’s not
what they have been observing. They are disgusted by violence, rioting, and looting,
especially during a pandemic; ruining businesses and destroying properties have nothing
to do with why people are protesting. This type of behavior isn’t going to lead to the type
of change they want and it’s putting others at risk (e.g., lack of social distancing). It’s only
dividing our country at a time we should be coming together.
Respondents indicated which comes closest to their perspective: “black lives matter” or
“all lives matter.” Among Obama-Trump voters, four told us all lives matter, and two said
black lives matter. Similarly, among Romney-Clinton voters, two told us all lives matter,
and one said black lives matter – a two-to-one ratio in favor of all lives matter in each
subgroup.
13www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
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8PRESIDENT TRUMP’S RE -ELECTION PROSPECTS WILL
BE DAMAGED IF THE PROTESTS, CIVIL UNREST, AND
RACIAL TENSIONS CONTINUE UNTIL THE ELECTION.
Our swing voters rated how much more or less likely they would be to vote for President
Trump if the protests, civil unrest, and racial tensions continue from now until the
election, with Obama-Trump voters scoring this 4.3/10 (from “much less likely” to “much
more likely”), and Romney-Clinton voters scoring this 0/10.
Some political pundits have speculated that the protests, civil unrest, and racial tensions
could be good for President Trump’s re-election prospects. He could argue that he’s “the
law and order candidate” and he’s the only one who could restore order. He could argue
that Biden, as president, would defund the police and allow the rioters to run rampant.
Respondents rejected the argument that any of this would be good for President Trump.
He has repeatedly said he will restore order by deploying the National Guard, but he
hasn’t done it, and rioting went on for weeks. People are angry about what’s going on, and
if it continues, he will be singled out for not fixing it. All he has done with his language is
“stir the pot.” Some believe this is a stark contrast from what they’re seeing from Biden,
who appears to be more “heartfelt” for George Floyd, his family, and the African-American
community.
14www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
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9THESE SWING VOTERS BELIEVE ADVOCATES FOR
SOCIAL JUSTICE ARE GOING TOO FAR WITH THEIR
DEMANDS, INCLUDING THEIR PUSH TO DEFUND
THE POLICE.
Respondents cited the excessive demands they have heard from social justice advocates
recently, including:
• The push to defund the police
• The CEO of Black Entertainment Television (BET) calling for $14 trillion in slavery
reparations
• Celebrities coming together to spend millions of dollars to bail the rioters and
looters out of jail.
The call to defund the police is particularly troubling to our swing voters because we
“need law and order in society.” They were skeptical that we would actually get rid of the
police, but when people hear that, half the population believes there is going to be
“chaos.” We can change the way we do things to improve outcomes, such as better
training and finding out if police officers are racist, but we need them. Defunding the
police is a non-starter.
If Biden felt that he had to support the effort to defund the police, some of our swing
voters who are planning to vote for him would reconsider their vote because that would
be very close to a bridge too far for them.
15www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
KEY FINDINGS
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10THERE’S NO CONSENSUS AMONG THESE SWING
VOTERS ABOUT WHO CAN LEAD A NATIONAL
CONVERSATION ON RACE, EXCEPT IT SHOULDN’T
BE A POLITICAL FIGURE.
A number of respondents told us they’re looking for a more organic effort in talking
about race. They believe the conversation on race starts at home and that’s where it
needs to happen. This is where people should learn that racism isn’t tolerated and
shouldn’t be normalized.
If we were to have a national conversation on race, they believe it cannot be any political
figures leading it. It would not be helpful for it to be seen as politically-driven or politically-
motivated. Perhaps religious leaders could play a part. They generally believe it shouldn’t
be just one person leading the conversation. They envision having leaders from all
religions being part of this; it should include people of a all backgrounds. Highly regarded
celebrities, such as Morgan Freeman and Michael Jordan, could be involved in this effort.
Respondents believe we can have a national conversation in this super-charged climate,
and it’s already happening. They believe now is the time to address this issue.
16www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
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11THESE SWING VOTERS BELIEVE LARGE CORPORATIONS
HAVE A ROLE TO PLAY IN ACHIEVING RACIAL JUSTICE.
The roles that large corporations should play in achieving racial justice include:
• Equal opportunity in hiring practices to encourage diversity among employees
• Efforts to eliminate any biases in place within the large corporation
• Diversity training for new and existing employees.
The NFL recently made the following announcement:
The NFL is growing our social justice efforts through a 10-year total $250 million
fund to combat systemic racism and support the battle against the ongoing and
historic injustices faced by African-Americans. The NFL and our clubs will
continue to work collaboratively with NFL players to support programs to
address criminal justice reform, police reforms, and economic and educational
advancement. In addition to the financial commitment, we will continue to
leverage the NFL Network and all of our media properties to place an increased
emphasis on raising awareness and promoting education of social justice issues
to our fans and help foster unity.
Almost all of these swing voters believe this is a good thing. The NFL has the money to do
this and it’s “incredibly positive” that they’re promoting these types of efforts because it’s
time for a change. This commitment suggests that they’re aware of the situation and
taking it seriously. Our respondents are interested in learning about where the money is
going.
NASCAR recently announced they’re banning the Confederate flag at all events. Most of
our swing voters are supportive of this change. They told us the Confederate flag is
disrespectful to a lot of people and some wondered why it has been allowed up to this
point. But two Obama-Trump voters did not think removing the Confederate flag was
appropriate.
17www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
KEY FINDINGS
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12THESE SWING VOTERS HAVE A FAIRLY POSITIVE
VIEW OF KAMALA HARRIS AS BIDEN’S CHOICE FOR
VICE PRESIDENT.
Our swing voters rated how confident they are that they could identify an unlabeled
photo of Kamala Harris (from “not at all confident” to “very confident”). Both subgroups of
swing voters were somewhat confident they could identify her, with Obama-Trump voters
scoring this 6.3/10 and Romney-Clinton voters scoring this 6.7/10.
During each group, we showed our swing voters two videos of Senator Harris. The first
video was a short video clip from her presidential announcement speech in January 2019.
After watching the first video clip, respondents told us the one word that comes to mind
to describe her.
Obama-Trump voters listed positive words, including “assertive,” “intelligent,” “passionate,”
and “equality.” Those who reacted more negatively described her as “bought” and “false.”
Romney-Clinton voters use the words “genuine,” “strong,” and “class.”
After the presidential announcement clip, respondents rated how positively or negatively
they view Senator Harris, with Obama-Trump voters scoring this 6.5/10 (from “very
negative” to “very positive”), and Romney-Clinton voters scoring this 7.0/10.
The second video was a short video clip from a senate speech she delivered this month
about an anti-lynching bill. Again, respondents told us the one word that comes to mind
to describe her.
Obama-Trump voters who reacted positively to her listed “adaptable,” “passionate,” and
“advocate.” Other words used to describe her included “dramatic,” “race,” and
“unthoughtful.”
Romney-Clinton voters used “determined,” “tough,” and “power.”
After the senate speech clip, respondents rated how positively or negatively they view
Senator Harris, with Obama-Trump voters scoring this 6.8/10 (from “very negative” to
“very positive”), and Romney-Clinton voters scoring this 7.0/10.
Our swing voters generally had a positive impression of her. During our discussion, they
described her as “intelligent,” “passionate,” “well-spoken,” and “definitely has what it takes”
to be Biden’s running mate. They weren’t concerned that America might not be ready for
a black female vice president, and some agreed that choosing her would be an act of
conciliation to bring the country together.
18www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
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12With Biden pledging to choose a female running-mate, other options our swing voters
think Biden should consider include Elizabeth Warren and Stacey Abrams. There was no
consensus among these swing voters on whether it would be wise for Biden to choose
Warren as his vice president. Our swing voters described her as “very intelligent” and
“well-spoken.” Others were less enthusiastic about her. They suggested they wouldn’t
become less supportive of Biden if he selected her, but one described Warren as her
“least favorite” option and another commented that it would be “smarter to pick
someone different,” adding he should choose a woman of color.
The only person Biden could choose as his running-mate that would offend any of them
to the point of not voting for him is Hillary Clinton. In our first group, the only Obama-
Trump voter sticking with President Trump told us there isn’t anyone Biden could choose
as his running-mate that would persuade her to change her vote to Biden.
19www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
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13THESE SWING VOTERS BELIEVE PRESIDENT TRUMP
SHOULD BE WEARING A MASK IN PUBLIC – AND
THEY HAVE NEGATIVE FEELINGS WHEN THEY SEE
HIM NOT WEARING ONE.
Respondents provided a word or words to describe their reaction when they see
President Trump not wearing a mask in public:
• Irresponsible (2)
• Disrespectful
• Poor example
• Arrogant
• Annoyed
• Irritated
• Reckless
• Bold
Also, respondents provided a word or words to describe their reaction when they do see
Biden wearing a mask in public:
• Precautious
• Informed
• Responsible
• Educated
• Appropriate
• Safety-oriented
• Role model
• Cautious
• Doing it for show
20www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
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14MOST OF THESE SWING VOTERS DON’T SUPPORT
IMPOSING “SIN TAXES” TO MAKE UP FOR LOST
REVENUE RESULTING FROM COVID-19.
With the federal government recently spending more than $2 trillion to combat
coronavirus and stabilize the economy and talk of another multi-trillion-plus package,
respondents rated how concerned they are about the impacts of all this spending on the
federal deficit and debt, with Obama-Trump voters scoring this 5.2/10 (from “not at all
concerned” to “extremely concerned”), and Romney-Clinton voters scoring it 4.3/10.
Part of the $2 trillion spending package was called the Paycheck Protection Program,
which offers forgivable loans to small businesses where the money is used to help pay
employees who otherwise would be laid off because of the coronavirus. These swing
voters were generally positive about the program, with a number of them having heard
positive stories about how it has helped small businesses stay afloat during the
pandemic. Others have heard about businesses who fit the criteria to receive a forgivable
loan from this program only to learn later that there were no more available funds to
distribute.
Due to COVID-19, states and local governments have lost a lot of revenue. During
challenging times, they often turn to “sin taxes” on things like tobacco and alcohol to raise
more revenue. Seven of our nine swing voters believe it’s inappropriate for those
industries to be singled out in order to raise revenue. They argued that consumers are
going to be negatively impacted and most believe it’s unfair to point your finger at those
industries in an effort to raise more revenue. One respondent suggested those types of
taxes get implemented and then become a “continuing thing.”
Respondents listed which industries they would tax, if not tobacco and alcohol:
• Large companies, including Walmart, Amazon, Target, and Macy’s
• Luxury taxes, including on travel and gambling
• Medical marijuana
• A temporary tax on clothing (e.g., three months).
21www.engagious.com | 503.225.8418 | [email protected]
KEY FINDINGS
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15FOR MOST OF THESE SWING VOTERS, THE
CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC HASN’T INCREASED THEIR
CONCERN ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE.
Respondents indicated how the coronavirus pandemic has affected their level of concern
about climate change, if at all. Seven told us the coronavirus pandemic has had “no
effect,” including five Obama-Trump voters and two Romney-Clinton voters. Two
indicated they’re “more concerned” about climate change -- one Obama-Trump voter and
one Romney-Clinton voter -- while none of our respondents indicated they’re “less
concerned” about it.
A Romney-Clinton voter told us the coronavirus pandemic has increased his concern
about climate change because there are a lot of unanswered questions surrounding it.
He suggested that a pandemic could originate in a part of the world and then the nature
of it could change based on climate. He remarked there may not be a direct correlation
between the coronavirus pandemic and climate change, but some people are connecting
the two and it hasn’t been addressed. The possible connection between the two caught
his attention because of how the coronavirus has been spreading in different regions of
the world.
The other respondent who said she was more concerned seemed confused by the
question.