american unipolarity and the rise of china
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American Unipolarity and the Rise of China. Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 3, 2011. Realist worldview. Why power matters. Offensive Realist. Defensive Realist. What states do. Balance Bandwagon Buck-passing Chain-ganging. Why polarity matters. More stable – less prone to war - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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American Unipolarity and
the Rise of ChinaTheo Farrell, CSI Lecture 3, 2011
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Realist worldview
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Why power matters
Offensive Realist Defensive Realist
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What states do
Balance
Bandwagon
Buck-passing
Chain-ganging
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Why polarity matters
More stable – less prone to war
Bipolar orders are simple to manage.
Multipolar orders can slip into war due to ‘chain-ganging’ (WWI) and ‘buck-passing’ (WWII).
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Bound to Lead (Nye, 1990)
Source of power
USA EU JapanBasic resources
Strong Strong Strong
Military Strong Medium WeakEconomic Strong Strong StrongScience Strong Strong StrongNational cohesion
Strong Weak Strong
Universal culture
Strong Strong Weak
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European hegemons
The Hapsburg Empire (Charles V and Philip II)
Napoleonic France
Victorian Britain
Nazi Germany
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Wohlforth’s ”big 3”
1. World system is unabiguously unipolar.
2. Unipolarity is prone to peace.
3. Current unipolarity is stable.
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Extent of American unipolarity
2 – 1 = 1?
Quantitative + qualitative material advantages
Largest high-tech economy
Expenditure on R&D = rest of G7 combined
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Unipolarity = peace
No hegemonic rivalry
International institutions and hegemonic self-restraint (Ikenberry)
Social foundations of hegemony (Reus-Smit)
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Why US unipolarity is stable
1.Totality of power gap
2.Geography – ‘stopping power of water’
3.No rising challengers: EU, Japan, China
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Soft balancing
‘Actions that do not directly challenge U.S. military preponderance but that use nonmilitary tools to delay, frustrate, and undermine aggressive unilateral U.S. military practices.’
Logic: containing U.S hegemonic power
Trigger: unilateralism under Bush
Soft balancing strategies: territorial denial, entangling diplomacy, economic strengthening, and signaling resolve
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Much ado about nothing..
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‘Back to the future’: the world in 2025..
‘…will be a global multipolar one’
China and India in C18th: 30% and 15% of global wealth
China = world’s second largest economy
Chinese problems: failing social security net, poor business regulation, hunger for foreign energy, corruption, and environmental devastation
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Long-range forecasting: reasons to be cautious
Leaders and their ideas matter
Economic volatility and political change
Geopolitical rivalry and discontinuities
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Revisionist state?
Revisionist states value what they covet more than what they currently possess
They will employ military force to change the status quo and extend their values
Randall Schweller, ‘Bringing the Revisionist State Back In, International Security 19: 1 (1994)
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Naval balance of power
USPACOM China
Large deck carrier
6 0
Small carrier 10 1
Warships 58 78
Nuclear subs 34 6
Conventional subs
0 62
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Implications of Chinese military modernisation
Disrupt US freedom of movement in the region
Narrow US strategic options
SecDef Robert Gates (2009)
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Hey big spender
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Keeps on growing
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Bad debts
US current account deficit = 1.4 of global GDP and China current account surplus = 0.7 of global GDP (2007)
Sept 2008, China replaced Japan as largest foreign holder of US debt (= $1.5 trillion or 46% of US debt)
Daniel Drezner, ‘Assessing China’s Financial Influence in Great Power Politics’, Int Security 34: 2 (2009).
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‘Responsible power?’
‘It is time to take our policy beyond opening doors to China’s membership into the international system. We need to urge China to become a responsible stakeholder in that system.’
Deputy Sec of State Robert Zoellick (2005).
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China as a ‘social state’
1. Participation in int institutions
2. Compliance with int norms:
(sovereignty, free trade, non-prolif, HR)
3. Attitude towards the ‘rules of the game’
A. I. Johnston, ‘Is China a Status Quo Power,’ Int Security 27: 4 (2003)
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Future looks bright…?