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America’sPerfect Storm

Irwin KirschETS

National Press Club

Washington, D.C.

February 5, 2007

Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.4/29/2009 2

Three Forces Are Changing Our Nation’s Future

• Inadequate literacy and numeracy skills

among large segments of our student and

adult populations

• An ongoing shift in the demographic profile of

our population, powered by the highest

immigration rates in nearly a century

• The continuing evolution of the economy and

the nation’s job structure, requiring higher

levels of skills from an increasing proportion

of workers


Let us not be content to wait and see

what will happen, but give us the determination

to make the right things happen.

— Horace Mann


Inadequate Skill Distributions


Literacy surveys conducted by ETS have represented literacy along scales divided into 5 levels. National and international committees have judged that skills in Levels 3 and higher are needed for participation in modern societies.

Less Proficient More Proficient

National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS, 1992)


150

200

250

300

350

177, 0-8 years of schooling

231, 9-12 years of schooling

270;268, HS Diploma; GED

294, some college

308, 2-year degree322, 4-year degree

336, graduate degree

< Level 1

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4

Literacy skills are related to highest level of educational attainment.


27

58

88

98

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

Percentage

Passing

GED

SOURCE: The Literacy Proficiencies of GED Examinees: Results from the GED-NALS

Comparison Study. (1995). Baldwin, J., Kirsch, I., Rock, D., & Yamamoto, K.

**

Adults in Levels 3 and higher had a better than 90 percent chance of passing the GED.


Half of America’s adults lack literacy skills needed for the 21st century.

All Adults Asian Black Hispanic White

35 3020

14

41

13

9

33

17

2028 33

49

12

32

33

44

33

30

100

80

60

40

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percentage of Adults 16-65 Years Old at:

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4/5


High school graduation rates peaked at 77% in 1969 and have remained in the 70% range since 1995.

Graduates as a

Percentage of

17-Year-Old

Population

Note: Graduates are of regular day-school programs.Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics


Average achievement gaps in both reading and math have remained stubbornly unchanged.

Reading 1984 1994 2004

White-Black

Age 13 26 31 22

Age 17 32 30 29

White-Hispanic

Age 13 33 30 24

Age 17 27 33 29

Math 1986 1996 2004

White-Black

Age 13 24 29 27

Age 17 29 27 28

White-Hispanic

Age 13 19 25 23

Age 17 24 21 24


Math Reading Science

U.S. Average Score 483 495 491

OECD Average 500 494 500

U.S. Rank Among 29

Countries

24th 15th 20th

The U.S. is not among the world’s leaders in any area of educational achievement.


Shifting Demographics


Growth

1980-2000

Growth

2000-2020

Natives, 25-54, All races 26.7 0.0

Natives, 55+, All races 2.7 13.3

Immigrants 9.3 6.0

TOTAL 38.7 19.4

Note: Numbers represent millions of adults.

America’s labor force will grow more slowly over the next 20 years, with almost none of the growth expected to come from native-born workers.


Time Period

Population

Growth

(millions)

Net

International

Migration

(millions)

Net

Immigration

as a

Percentage of

Population

Change

April 2000-July 2005

(Actual)15.0 6.3 42

2005-2010 Projected 13.4 6.7 50

2011-2015 Projected 13.4 7.1 53

Immigration is projected to account for more than half of our population growth between now and 2015.


Immigration patterns have changed dramatically over the past 100 years. New immigrants to the U.S. are quite diverse with respect to their country of origin.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1820–1940 1951–60 1971–80 1991-96

Years

Proportions

Asia

Central/SouthAmerica

Canada

Europe

Australia andNew Zealand

Africa


Educational AttainmentNumber

(millions)Percentage

1-12 years, no diploma 1.7 34

high school diploma or GED 1.1 23

13-15 years .8 15

Bachelor’s degree .8 17

Master’s or higher degree .6 11

Total 5.0 100

Between 2000 and 2004, new immigrants entered the U.S. with a broad range of educational backgrounds.


Educational

Attainment

Only

Speaks

English

(%)

Speaks

English

Very

Well

(%)

Speaks

English

Well

(%)

Does

Not

Speak

English

Well

(%)

Does

Not

Speak

English

(%)

1-12 years, no

diploma6 6 9 32 47

High school

diploma or GED9 16 19 36 21

13-15 years 16 30 24 21 9

Bachelor’s

degree14 36 28 17 5

Master’s or

higher degree11 48 27 12 3

Total 10 22 19 26 23

80% of new immigrants without a high school diploma report that they do not speak English well or at all.


Educational

Attainment

Total

Births

Out-of-Wedlock

Births

Percentage

Out of

Wedlock

<12 or 12, no diploma 563,288 350,847 62.2

12 years, diploma

or GED

743,151 381,060 51.3

13-15 years 666,328 242,920 36.7

Bachelor’s degree 268,238 33,669 12.6

Master’s or higher

degree

62,313 2,691 4.3

All 2,298,318 1,011,077 44.0

Source: 2004 American Community Surveys; public-use files; tabulations by authors.

44% of births to women under 30 are out of wedlock. The majority of these births take place among women with either no high school diploma or no postsecondary education.


A Changing Economy


Occupational

group

1984

millions

2000

millions

Absolute

change in

millions of

adults

Percentage

change

All 16+ 105.0 135.0 30.0 29.0

High literacy 34.0 54.0 20.0 57.0

Moderate literacy 70.0 80.0 10.0 14.3

Jobs associated with college-level skills and education accounted for two-thirds of the job growth between 1984 and 2000.


Occupational

group

2004

millions

2014

millions

Absolute

change in

millions of

adults

Percentage

change

All 16+ 146.0 165.0 19.0 13.0

High literacy 49.0 58.0 9.0 18.0

Moderate literacy 97.0 107.0 10.0 10.0

Jobs requiring high levels of education and skills are projected to account for almost half of the job growth over the next decade.


Year

HS grad

to

HS dropout

Some

college

to

HS grad

B.A.+

to

HS grad

B.A.+

top skills

to

HS grad

top skills

B.A.+

avg. skills

to

HS grad

avg. skills

B.A.+

low skills

to

HS grad

low skills

1988 1.38 1.20 1.58 1.69 1.01 1.14

1997 1.31 1.14 1.81 1.68 1.35 1.18

2001 1.35 1.17 2.01 2.22 1.47 1.29

Comparative differences in the annual earnings of U.S.

adults have widened for those with higher levels of

education and higher levels of skills.


Wage and salary earnings reflected a shared prosperity through 1975. Between then and now we have seen a growing inequality.

Percentage Change in Earnings Since 1961

Tabulations of annual March Current Population

Survey Data, by David Ellwood, Harvard University.


What might the future look like?


70 million adults in Levels 1/2

Distribution of Literacy Scores Found in the National Adult Literacy Survey (1992)



70 million increases to 119 million

in 2030


Average literacy scores are expected to decline between 1992 and 2030, with an increase in the amount of inequality.



1973 1989 2004 % Change

ALL $27,618 $22,852 $20,700 -25

Education

<12 yrs, no diploma 22,686 15,998 16,000 -30

HS diploma/GED 30,819 22,854 21,000 -32

13-15 years 28,018 26,756 25,000 -9

Bachelor’s degree 35,390 36,565 35,000 -1

Master’s or higher 40,826 38,088 45,000 10

Note: Earnings are in 2004 dollars.

Average earnings of men 20-29 years of age have decreased for all except those attaining the highest levels of education, resulting in greater inequality.


Decile All Men Women White Black Hispanic

Total 26.46 25.77 27.18 30.25 14.92 14.57

2nd 2.20 1.73 2.72 0.67 4.26 2.60

4th 8.84 6.40 11.04 6.26 15.07 12.94

6th 15.35 9.01 20.95 13.61 26.54 19.91

8th 32.75 31.49 33.98 33.05 44.13 33.98

10th 76.15 75.76 76.72 76.53 72.13 79.47

Percent among adults who are now 36-43 years old

Reading and math scores in high school have a strong influence on the likelihood of completing 16 or more years of schooling.

Changing

Economy

Divergent Skill

Distributions

Demographic

Shifts


For more information contact:

Irwin Kirsch

ETS

Princeton, N.J. 08541

e-mail: [email protected]

Office: (609) 734-1516

For Media Inquiries contact:

Tom Ewing

609-683-2803

[email protected]

www.ets.org/stormreport

america’s perfect storm - ets home · 2019-03-08 · america’s perfect storm irwin kirsch ets...

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