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Alternative Fuel Vehicle (AFV) insights andPartnering Opportunities for State Legislators
Dennis A. Smith, P.E.Vehicle Technologies Office/ Clean Cities TeamNCSL Capitol Forum – December 9, 2015
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Oil Dependency is Dominated by On-Road Vehicles
Economic security, energy security, and environmental stewardship
Changing energy landscape
• Natural gas• Electrification• Fuel Economy
Standards
Transportation is responsible for 2/3 of U.S. petroleum usage
On-Road vehicles responsible for 85% of transportation petroleum usage
More than 240 million vehicles on the road
The Cost of Oil is Not Just Monetary
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US DOE Clean Cities Primary Goal and Results
PRIMARY GOAL:Mass market adoption of alternative fuel and advanced technology vehicles and smarter driving / purchasing habits
Reduced Petroleum Use in Transportation
Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Reduced Dependence on Foreign Oil
Improved US Energy, Economic, and Environmental Security
PRIMARY GOAL RESULTS
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Portfolio of Today’s Vehicle Technologies
Eliminate
Alternative Fuels
Electric VehiclesBiodiesel Ethanol
HydrogenPropane
Natural Gas
Fuel Economy
More Fuel efficient vehicles,
adopting smarter driving and
vehicle purchasing habits
Hybrids
Light- and heavy-duty
Electric hybrids
Plug-In hybrids
Hydraulic hybrids
Idle Reduction
Heavy-Duty Trucks
School & Transit Buses
Light-Duty Vehicles
OMG – Our highway trust fund will Disappear !!
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Realizing Benefits of Vehicle Technology Takes Time
Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2010, EPA420-R-10-023, November 2010, p. 69. Argonne National Lab e-drive analysis 2015, and RL Polk data from 2014
Vehicle Technology PenetrationYears After Initial Significant Use
It has taken about 15 – 20 years for a technology to reach maximum market penetration.
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Vehicles Are Becoming Increasingly Fuel Efficient
Federal Light-duty Fuel Economy Standards
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10
20
30
40
50
60
Mil
es
Pe
r G
allo
n
Passenger Cars Light-Duty Trucks
U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuel Data Center
CAFE is expected to save consumers between $372 and $507 billion by
2025,1 but decrease fuel tax revenues by $57 billion by 20202
1. National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration, 2011
2. Dinan and Austin, 2012
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Implement national policies and initiatives by facilitating change on a National, State, and Local basis
State and Local
Develop a Franchise model (designate CC coalitions) so that approach and message are consistent everywhere, but with attention to local market conditions and priorities (provide strategic direction and critical training to localities)
National
Provide a national unbiased source of info
Provide tools, experts to address barriers and solve problems
Develop Corporate Partnerships with Industry and National Fleets
Increase awareness and publicize success through mass media and outreach
Provide financial assistance to jump start markets and incentivize private investment
US-DOE Clean Cities Parallel Approach
Nearly 100 coalitions with thousands of stakeholders
Representing ~80% of US population
Source: DOE/NREL Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) - http://www.afdc.energy.gov/data/10300
Alternative Fuel Vehicles in Use
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Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) Sales Growth
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
U.S
. Lig
ht
Du
ty V
eh
icle
Sal
es
(Mill
ion
s)
Cumulative U.S. Plug-In Vehicle Sales
New Sales during current month
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mill
ion
s
U.S. Total Light-Duty Vehicle Sales
2015 PEV sales status:
~ 350,000 sales to date
~ 8,000 to 10,000/month
Source: Edrive sales analysis – Argonne National Laboratory
State NationalFraction
% of vehiclesin state
Implemented new EV fees
California 45.28% 0.54%
Georgia 5.58% 0.24% X
Washington 4.41% 0.28% X
New York 4.04% 0.15%
Florida 3.72% 0.08%
Texas 3.56% 0.05%
Michigan 3.17% 0.13% X
Illinois 2.40% 0.08%
New Jersey 2.15% 0.10%
Oregon 2.04% 0.24%
Subtotal = 76.4%
Where are all the Plug-in EVs going? (top 10 states)
NCSL workshop attendees
Source: NREL analysis VIO_2014 (R.L. Polk data)
State NationalFraction
% of vehiclesin state
Included on Top-10 list
Idaho 0.15% 0.04%
Georgia 5.58% 0.24% X
Washington 4.41% 0.28% X
North Carolina 1.21% 0.06%
Wyoming 0.03% 0.02%
Colorado 1.44% 0.11%
Michigan 3.17% 0.13% X
Nebraska 0.21% 0.04%
Virginia 1.30% 0.06%
Missouri 0.67% 0.05%
Subtotal = 18.2%
Most States with EV fees don’t have many EVs yet
NCSL workshop attendees
Source: NREL analysis VIO_2014 (R.L. Polk data)
State NationalFraction
% of vehiclesin state
Included on Top-10 list
Idaho 0.15% 0.04%
Georgia 5.58% 0.24% X
Washington 4.41% 0.28% X
North Carolina 1.21% 0.06%
Wyoming 0.03% 0.02%
Colorado 1.44% 0.11%
Michigan 3.17% 0.13% X
Nebraska 0.21% 0.04%
Virginia 1.30% 0.06%
Missouri 0.67% 0.05%
Subtotal = 5.01%
Most States with EV fees don’t have many EVs yetSource: NREL analysis VIO_2014 (R.L. Polk data)
State NationalFraction
% of vehiclesin state
Est no. of PEVs registered/mo*
Idaho 0.15% 0.04% <15
Georgia 5.58% 0.24% 500
Washington 4.41% 0.28% 400
North Carolina 1.21% 0.06% 110
Wyoming 0.03% 0.02% <3
Colorado 1.44% 0.11% 130
Michigan 3.17% 0.13% 285
Nebraska 0.21% 0.04% 19
Virginia 1.30% 0.06% 117
Missouri 0.67% 0.05% 60
Subtotal = 18.2% 1,638
Most States with EV fees don’t have many EVs yet
NCSL workshop attendees *Est. based on 8-10k PEV sales/mo.
Source: NREL analysis VIO_2014 (R.L. Polk data)
Cumulative PEV Sales in the US, by model
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Leaf Volt TeslaModel S*
Prius PHEV FordFusionEnergi
Ford C-Max Energi
BMW i3 Ford Focus Smart ED Fiat 500E
Sales through October 2015
Source: Edrive sales analysis – Argonne National Laboratory
$7,500 Federal tax break threshold
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Next Steps for State Legislators
• Do your homework on alternative fuels.
• Don’t panic, You have time, so Plan Wisely.
• Modernize taxation approach to accommodate CAFE trends, new technologies, and maximize “Benefits” to your state.
• Consider Pilot projects before making sweeping changes. One size may not fit all fuels and technologies.
• Consider threshold triggers or sunset incentives that kick-in when adoption rates reach a reasonable level.
• Partner with key Stakeholders to plan for Smart AFV growth.
• Work with Clean Cities coalitions to identify critical public and private partners, and to enhance your AFV skill level.
Nearly 100 coalitions with thousands of stakeholders
Representing ~80% of US population
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Alternative Fuels Data Center
Technical Assistance for all of the major Alternative Fuels• Laws and Incentives database
• Fueling Station Locator, Maps, and data
• Cost Calculators and analytical tools
• Fleet Profiles, Videos, and Case Studies
• www.afdc.energy.gov
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Contact Information & Important Links
Dennis A. Smith
US Department of Energy
National Clean Cities Director
Office: (202) 586-1791
E-mail: [email protected]
Clean Cities Website: www.cleancities.energy.gov
Clean Cities Coordinators: www.eere.energy.gov/cleancities/progs/coordinators.php
Alternative Fuels Data Center: www.afdc.energy.gov
Fuel Economy - MPG ratings and Consumer Information: www.FuelEconomy.gov
Technical Response Service: mailto:[email protected] or 1-800-254-6735