alternate method to combine monitored and predicted concentrations in dispersion modeling...

ALTERNATE METHOD TO COMBINE MONITORED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS IN DISPERSION MODELING DEMONSTRATIONSMPCA Air Quality Dispersion Modeling Guidance: Modeling Practice & Experience Information Session

December 18, 2013

Sergio A. Guerra - Wenck Associates, Inc.

Roadmap of Presentation

• What is background?• How is background selected?• How can we select a reasonable background value

without compromising the protection of the NAAQS?

Challenge of new short-term NAAQS

Probabilistic Ambient StandardsAppendix W: 9.1.2 Studies of Model Accuracy a. A number of studies have been conducted to examine model accuracy,

particularly with respect to the reliability of short-term concentrations required for ambient standard and increment evaluations. The results of these studies are not surprising. Basically, they confirm what expert atmospheric scientists have said for some time: (1) Models are more reliable for estimating longer time-averaged concentrations than for estimating short-term concentrations at specific locations; and (2) the models are reasonably reliable in estimating the magnitude of highest concentrations occurring sometime, somewhere within an area. For example, errors in highest estimated concentrations of ± 10 to 40 percent are found to be typical, i.e., certainly well within the often quoted factor-of-two accuracy that has long been recognized for these models. However, estimates of concentrations that occur at a specific time and site, are poorly correlated with actually observed concentrations and are much less reliable.

• Bowne, N.E. and R.J. Londergan, 1983. Overview, Results, and Conclusions for the EPRI Plume Model Validation and Development Project: Plains Site. EPRI EA–3074. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA.

• Moore, G.E., T.E. Stoeckenius and D.A. Stewart, 1982. A Survey of Statistical Measures of Model Performance and Accuracy for Several Air Quality Models. Publication No. EPA–450/4–83–001. Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.

Normal Distribution

http://www.agilegeoscience.com

Gaussian Dispersion Model

Definition of Background ConcentrationAccording to Appendix W background concentrations are defined as follows:

8.2 Background Concentrations8.2.1 Discussiona. Background concentrations are an essential part of the total air quality concentration to be considered in determining source impacts. Background air quality includes pollutant concentrations due to: (1) Natural sources; (2) nearby sources other than the one(s) currently under consideration; and (3) unidentified sources.

8.2.2 Recommendations (Isolated Single Source)b. Use air quality data collected in the vicinity of the source to determine the background concentration for the averaging times of concern. Determine the mean background concentration at each monitor by excluding values when the source in question is impacting the monitor. The mean annual background is the average of the annual concentrations so determined at each monitor. For shorter averaging periods, the meteorological conditions accompanying the concentrations of concern should be identified. Concentrations for meteorological conditions of concern, at monitors not impacted by the source in question, should be averaged for each separate averaging time to determine the average background value. Monitoring sites inside a 90° sector downwind of the source may be used to determine the area of impact. (Appendix W, emphasis added)

• U.S. EPA. (2005). “Guideline on Air Quality Models.” 40 CFR Part 51 Appendix W.

Example Tracer (SF6) Array

Probability analyses of combining background concentrations with model-predicted concentrationsDouglas R. Murray, Michael B. Newman Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association Vol. 64, Iss. 3, 2014

Kincaid Power Station and 28 SO2 Monitors


SO2 Concentrations Paired in Time & Space


SO2 Concentrations Paired in Time Only


Summary of Tracer and SO2 Observed Outside 90° Downwind Sector


Example Tracer (SF6) Array


Sitting of Ambient MonitorsAccording to the Ambient Monitoring Guidelines for Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD):

The existing monitoring data should be representative of three types of area:1) The location(s) of maximum concentration increase from the proposed source or modification;2) The location(s) of the maximum air pollutant concentration from existing sources; and3) The location(s) of the maximum impact area, i.e., where the maximum pollutant concentration would hypothetically occur based on the combined effect of existing sources and the proposed source or modification. (EPA, 1987)

U.S. EPA. (1987). “Ambient Monitoring Guidelines for Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD).”EPA‐450/4‐87‐007, Research Triangle Park, NC.

Rosemount Monitors

Current Approach• For 1-hr NO2 and 24-hour PM2.5*

• Combine the 98th predicted concentration (from AERMOD) with the 98th percentile monitored concentration (from ambinet monitor)

• For 1-hour SO2• Combine the 99th percentile concentration (from AERMOD) with the

99th percentile monitored concentration (from ambinet monitor)

Hit it Big!!! Example• You have 2 chances out of 100 to win the Powerball. Or

you have 98 chances out of a 100 of not winning the power ball.

• You have 2 chances out of 100 to win the Mega Millions. Or you have 98 chances out of a 100 of not winning the Mega Millions.

• What are the chances of winning both the Powerball andthe Mega Millions?

Marginal ProbabilityP(PB ∩ Mega) = P(PB) * P(Mega)

Where:P(PB ∩ Mega)= the marginal probability of winning the

PowerBall and at the same time winning the Mega.

P(PB) = the marginal probability of winning the Powerball (98th percentile).

P(Mega) = the marginal probability of winning the Mega (98th percentile).

Probability of Winning both LottosP(PB ∩ Mega) = P(PB) * P(Mega)

= (1-0.98) * (1-0.98)

= (0.02) * (0.02) = (1/50) * (1/50)

= 0.0004 = 1 / 2,500

= 99.96th percentile of the combined distribution

Combining 98th percentile Pre and Bkg (1-hr NO2 and 24-hr PM2.5)

P(Pre ∩ Bkg) = P(Pre) * P(Bkg)= (1-0.98) * (1-0.98)

= (0.02) * (0.02)

= 0.0004 = 1 / 2,500Equivalent to one exceedance every 6.8 years!


Combining 99th percentile Pre and Bkg (1-hr SO2)

P(Pre ∩ Bkg) = P(Pre) * P(Bkg)= (1-0.99) * (1-0.99)

= (0.01) * (0.01)

= 0.0001 = 1 / 10,000Equivalent to one exceedance every 27 years!


Proposed Approach to Combine Modeled and Monitored Concentrations• Combining the 98th (or 99th for 1-hr SO2) % monitored

concentration with the 98th % predicted concentration is too conservative.

• A more reasonable approach is to use a monitored value closer to the main distribution (i.e., the median).

Evaluation of the SO2 and NOX offset ratio method to account for secondary PM2.5 formationSergio A. Guerra, Shannon R. Olsen, Jared J. Anderson Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association Vol. 64, Iss. 3, 2014

Combining 98th Pre and 50th Bkg P(Pre ∩ Bkg) = P(Pre) * P(Bkg)

= (1-0.98) * (1-0.50)

= (0.02) * (0.50)

= 0.01 = 1 / 100

= 99th percentile of the combined distribution


Combining 99th Pre and 50th Bkg P(Pre ∩ Bkg) = P(Pre) * P(Bkg)

= (1-0.99) * (1-0.50)

= (0.01) * (0.50)

= 0.005 = 1 / 200



Evaluation• Representativeness • Screen out any exceptional events, equipment

errors/malfunction• Use the highest 3-year data set from the latest 5 year

period

Normal Distribution


Positively Skewed Distribution


24-hr PM2.5 observations at Shakopee 2008-2010


1-hr NO2 observations at IGH2008-2010.

Exceptional Events

http://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/2012/06/co_smoke_plume_now_visible_abo/

Exceptional Events

24-hr PM2.5 Santa Fe, NM Airport

Background Concentration and Methods to Establish Background Concentrations in Modeling. Presented at the Guideline on Air Quality Models: The Path Forward. Raleigh, NC, 2013.Bruce Nicholson

Conclusion• Most of the ambient monitors available are not representative of regional background

• Combining the 98th % monitored value with the 98th % predicted value is overly conservative

• Use of 50th % monitiored concentration is statistically conservative when pairing it with the 98th (or 99th) % predicted concentration

• Method is simple and statistically sound • Method is protective of the NAAQS while providing a reasonable level of conservatism

QUESTIONS…

Sergio A. Guerra, PhDEnvironmental EngineerPhone: (952) [email protected]

alternate method to combine monitored and predicted concentrations in dispersion modeling...

Education

so2 concentrations

concentrations of concern

annual concentrations

pollutant concentrations

background air quality

air quality models

mean background concentration

mean annual background