alpharetta chopra williams aff wake forest round1

7/23/2019 Alpharetta Chopra Williams Aff Wake Forest Round1

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1AC



Cyber terrorAttacks are likely – multiple groups and superior tech

Stackpole 8/13/15 (Beth veteran business and technology reporter, Beth

Stackpole has spent the last 25+ years writing for a variety of leading publications

and websites, including TechTarget, Coputerworld, C!", e#eek, $anaging%utoation, &esign 'ews,http))theartofthehack*co)cyberterroriscloserthan

youthink) C-B./ T.//"/!S$ C0"S./ T1%' -" T1!'34

% group of terrorists knocking out a city power grid or taking down the air tra6c

control syste is the kind of highstakes draa that akes for a blockbuster action

7ick* -et recent oves by statesponsored hackers and other terrorist groups are

sounding alar s that cyber terroris isn8t 9ust the stu: of 1ollywood ovies , but

rather a real and growing threat to *S* governent and business* The *S*

!ntelligence Counity8s 2;<5 #orldwide Threat %ssessent report naes /ussia,

China, !ran and 'orth 3orea as increasingly sophisticated actors in the new era of

cyber warfare* 1= Security /esearch has tracked a rising nuber of cyber attacks

eanating fro !ran, including an operation that targeted the *S* >nancial sector* The *S* governent said 'orth 3orea was to blae for the highpro>le hack on Sony =ictures in late 2;<?* Terrorist

groups are also aking noise about cyber attacks* .arlier this suer, hackers claiing a6liation with

the !slaic State in !ra@ and Syria (!S!S released a video with hooded >gures

vowing to wage an electronic war against the nited States and .urope* #hile the terrorists

never ade good on this particular threat, the incident was the latest in a string of cyber events involving terror

groups and statesponsored hackers* !n Aebruary, a group of hackers calling theselves the Cyber Caliphate4 and

claiing a6liation with !S!S tapped into the Twitter and -ouTube accounts of the *S* Central Coand (Centco

and spewed !S!S propaganda for approiately ; inutes* 0ast %pril, an !S!S sypathiDer was linked to assive

cyber attack on a global Arench language TE network, which lost << channels, parts of its website and its social

edia outlets for several hours* There was also the wellpublished data breach at the "6ce of =ersonnel

$anageent revealed in Fune, which coprised data on 22*< illion people and which any top o6cials attribute

to the Chinese governent despite their repeated denials* Fust last Aebruary, the director of National

ntelligence !ames "# Clapper told a Senate Armed Ser$ices Committeethat cyber attacks %ere the biggest threat to the &#S# economy and

national security ' and he called out politically moti$ated attacks as a

primary concern* %t the %spen Security Aoru held in Fuly, AB! &irector Faes

Coey reiterated those fears, saying that the agency had picked up intelligence

that terrorist groups were increasingly interested in such attack vectors, although he

stressed that plotting was in early stages*

A cyber(attack %ould trigger military retaliation and escalate

to nuclear %arRobert Tilford 12, Graduate US Army Airborne School, Ft. Benning, Georgia,

“Cyber attackers could shut down the electric grid or the entire east coast! "#$",htt%&''www.e(aminer.com'article'cyber)attackers)could)easily)shut)down)the)electric)grid)or)the)entire)east)coa ***we don+t agree with the ableist language

*%ower grids) no backu% generators

http://theartofthehack.com/cyber-terrorism-closer-than-you-think/


http://www.examiner.com/article/cyber-attackers-could-easily-shut-down-the-electric-grid-for-the-entire-east-coa








*radar systems go blank

*no communication

*launch nuclear wea%ons because we don+t know what the uck is going on

o make matters worse a cyber attack that can take out a ci-ilian %ower grid , or e(am%le

could also cripple (destroy) the U.S. military . he senator notes that is that the same %owergrids that su%%ly cities and towns, stores and gas stations, cell towers and heart monitors also

%ower “every military base in our country.! “Although bases would be %re%ared toweather a short %ower outage with backu% diesel generators, within hours, not days, uel su%%lies

would run out!, he said. /hich means military c ommand and c ontrol centers could go

dark . Radar systems that detect air threats to our country would shut 0own com%letely.

“Communication between commanders and their troo%s would also go silent. And many

wea%ons systems would be let without either uel or electric %ower!, said Senator

Grassley. “So in a few short hours or days, the mightiest military in the world wouldbe let scrambling to maintain base unctions!, he said. /e contacted the 1entagon

and o2icials con3rmed the threat o a cyber attack is something very real. o%

national security o2icials4including the Chairman o the 5oint Chies, the 0irector o the 6ational Security Agency,

the Secretary o 0eense, and the C7A 0irector4 ha-e said, “%re-enting a cyber attack and im%ro-ing the

nation+s electric grids is among the most urgent %riorities o our country! 8source& Congressional Record9. So how

serious is the 1entagon taking all this: ;nough to start, or end a war o-er it, or sure. A cyber attack today against

the US could -ery well be seen as an !ct of "ar# and could be met with a “ull

scale! US military res%onse. hat could include the use o nuclear weapons#$ i

authori<ed by the 1resident.

)he NSA*s electronic backdoors undermine o$erallcybersecurity – also shuts out the &S from establishing cyber(

norms

Sasso$ technology correspondent for %ational &ournal$ 1'

Brendan, =he 6SA 7sn>t 5ust S%ying on Us, 7t>s Also Undermining 7nternetSecurity=, A%ril "? "#$@, 6atio nal 5ournal, www.nationalournal.com'daily'the)nsa)isn)t)ust)s%ying)on)us)it)s)also)undermining)internet)security)"#$@#@"?

*6SA backdoors inrastructure to make hacking easy

*his encry%tion is a-ailable to anyone that 3nds it hacking

*6ecessary or international norm) modelling) %eo%le won+t ollow til USA doestheir shit

Bolstering the nation+s deenses against hackers has been one o the bamaadministration+s to% goals. 2icials ha-e warned or years that a so%histicatedcyberattack could cri%%le 8destroy9 critical inrastructure or allow thie-es to makeo2 with the 3nancial inormation o millions o Americans. 1resident bama %ushed

Congress to enact cybersecurity legislation, and when it didn+t, he issued his own e(ecuti-e order in "#$D. “he

http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/the-nsa-isn-t-just-spying-on-us-it-s-also-undermining-internet-security-20140429






cyber threat to our nation is one o the most serious economic and nationalsecurity challenges we ace,! bama wrote in a "#$" o%)ed in he /all Street 5ournal. But critics

argue that the % ational S ecurity ! gency has actually undermined

cybersecurity and made the U nited S tates more vulnerable to hackers. At its

core, the %roblem is the 6SA+s dual mission. n one hand, the agency is tasked with

securing U.S. networks and inormation. n the other hand, the agency mustgather intelligence on oreign threats to national security. Collecting intelligenceoten means hacking encry%ted communications. hat+s nothing new or the 6SAE the agency

traces its roots back to code)breakers deci%hering 6a<i messages during /orld /ar 77. So in many ways,strong 7nternet security actually makes the 6SA+s ob harder . “his is an administration

that is a -igorous deender o sur-eillance,! said Christo%her Soghoian, the head technologist or the American

Ci-il iberties Union. Surveillance at the scale they want reuires insecurity .# he

leaks rom ;dward Snowden ha-e re-ealed a -ariety o e2orts by the 6SA to weakencybersecurity and hack into networks. Critics say those %rograms, while hel%ing 6SAs%ying, ha-e made U.S. networks less secure. According to the leaked documents,the %S! inserted a socalled back door into at least one encryption

standard that was developed by the % ational * nstitute of S tandards and

T echnology. he 6SA could use that back door to s%y on sus%ected terrorists, butthe vulnerability was also available to any other hacker who discovered it.

%*ST, a Commerce 0e%artment agency, sets scienti+c and technical standards

that are widely used by both the government and the private sector . he

agency has said it would ne-er “deliberately weaken a cry%togra%hic standard,! but it remains unclear whether

the agency was aware o the back door or whether the 6SA tricked 67S into ado%ting the com%romised

standard. 67S is reuired by law to consult with the 6SA or its technical e(%ertise on cybersecurity. here-elation that 6SA somehow got 67S to build a back door into an encry%tionstandard has seriously damaged 67S+s re%utation with security e(%erts. “67S is

o%erating with a trust de3cit right now,! Soghoian said. “ !nything that %*ST has

touched is now tainted.# 7t+s a %articularly bad time or 67S to ha-e lost thesu%%ort o the cybersecurity community. 7n his e(ecuti-e order, bama tasked

67S with drating the cybersecurity guidelines or critical infrastructure such

as power plants and %hone com%anies. Because it+s an e(ecuti-e order instead o a law, the

cybersecurity standards are entirely -oluntary, and the U.S. go-ernment will ha-e to con-ince the %ri-ate sector to

com%ly. he Snowden leaks weren+t the 3rst to indicate that the 6SA is in-ol-ed ine(%loiting commercial security. According to a "#$" 6ew Hork imes re%ort, the6SA de-elo%ed a worm, dubbed “Stu(net,! to cri%%le 7ranian nuclear centriuges.But the worm, which e(%loited our %re-iously unknown Iaws in Jicrosot/indows, esca%ed the 7ranian nuclear %lant and uickly began damagingcom%uters around the world. he 6SA and 7sraeli o2icials ha-e also been tied to “Flame,! a -irus that

im%ersonated a Jicrosot u%date to s%y on 7ranian com%uters. Kanee Kines, an 6SA s%okeswoman, said the U.S.

go-ernment “is as concerned as the %ublic is with the security o these %roducts.! “he United States %ursues itsintelligence mission with care to ensure that innocent users o those same technologies are not a2ected,! she said.

According to Kines, the 6SA relies on the same encry%tion standards it recommends tothe %ublic to %rotect its own classi3ed networks. “/e do not make recommendations that we

cannot stand behind or %rotecting national security systems and data,! she said. “he acti-ity o 6SA in setting

standards has made the 7nternet a ar saer %lace to communicate and do business.! But due to concerno-er the 6SA damaging 7nternet security, the %resident+s re-iew grou% onsur-eillance issues recommended that the U.S. go-ernment %romise not to “in anyway sub-ert, undermine, weaken, or make -ulnerable generally a-ailablecommercial encry%tion.! “;ncry%tion is an essential basis or trust on the 7nternet E



without such trust, -aluable communications would not be %ossible,! the grou% wrote in

its re%ort, which was released in 0ecember. “,or the entire system to work$ encryption

software itself must be trustworthy .! he /hite Louse+s cybersecurity coordinator said that

disclosing security Iaws =usually makes sense.= 7n res%onse to the re%ort, the administration ado%ted a new %olicy

on whether the 6SA can e(%loit “<ero)days!4-ulnerabilities that ha-en+t been disco-ered by anyone else yet.

According to the /hite Louse, there is a “bias! toward %ublicly disclosing Iaws in security unless “there is a clear

national security or law enorcement need.! 7n a blog %ost Jonday, Jichael 0aniel, the /hiteLouse+s cybersecurity coordinator, said that disclosing security Iaws “usuallymakes sense.! “Building u% a huge stock%ile o undisclosed -ulnerabilities while lea-ing the 7nternet

-ulnerable and the American %eo%le un%rotected would not be in our national security interest,! he said. But0aniel added that, in some cases, disclosing a -ulnerability means that the U.S.would “orego an o%%ortunity to collect crucial intelligence that could thwart aterrorist attack, sto% the thet o our nation+s intellectual %ro%erty, or e-en disco-ermore dangerous -ulnerabilities.! Le said that the go-ernment weighs a -ariety o actors, such as the

risk o lea-ing the -ulnerability un)%atched, the likelihood that anyone else would disco-er it, and how im%ortant

the %otential intelligence is. -ut privacy advocates and many business groups are

still uncomfortable with the U.S. keeping security aws secret. !nd many

don/t trust that the %S! will only e(%loit the -ulnerabilities with the most%otential or intelligence and least o%%ortunity or other hackers. “he sur-eillancebureaucracy really doesn+t ha-e a lot o sel)im%osed limits. hey want to gete-erything ,! said ;d Black, the C; o the Com%uter M Communications 7ndustry

Association, which re%resents com%anies including Google, Jicrosot, Hahoo, andS%rint. “6ow 7 think %eo%le dealing with that bureaucracy ha-e to understand they can+t take anything or

granted.! Jost com%uter networks are run by %ri-ate com%anies, and the

government must work closely with the private sector to improve

cybersecurity. -ut companies have become reluctant to share security

information with the U.S. government$ fearing the %S! could use any

info rmation to hack into their systems. “/hen you want to go into %artnershi%with somebody and work on serious issues4such as cybersecurity4you want to

know you+re being told the truth,! Black said. Google and one other cybersecurity 3rm

disco-ered “Leartbleed!4a critical Iaw in a widely used 7nternet encry%tion tool4in Jarch. he com%anies noti3ed a ew other %ri-ate)sector grou%s about the%roblem, but no one told the U.S. go-ernment until A%ril. “7normation you sharewith the 6SA might be used to hurt you as a com%any,! warned Ashkan Soltani, a technical

consultant who has worked with tech com%anies and hel%ed he /ashington 1ost with its co-erage o the

Snowden documents. Le said that com%any o2icials ha-e historically discussedcybersecurity issues with the 6SA, but that he wouldn+t be sur%rised i thoserelationshi%s are now strained. Le %ointed to news that the 6SA %osed asFacebook to inect com%uters with malware. “hat does a lot o harm tocom%anies+ brands,! Soltani said. The %S!/s actions have also made it di0icult for

the U.S. to set international norms for cyberconict . For se-eral years, theU.S. has tried to %ressure China to scale back its cybers%ying o%erations, whichallegedly steal trade secrets rom U.S. businesses. 5ason Lealey, the director o theCyber Statecrat 7nitiati-e at the Atlantic Council, said the U.S. has “militari<ed

cyber %olicy.! The U nited S tates has been saying that the world needs to

operate according to certain norms$ # he said. *t is di0icult to get the norms

that we want because it appears to the rest of the world that we only want

to follow the norms that we think are important.# Kines, the 6SA s%okeswoman,



em%hasi<ed that the 6SA would ne-er hack into oreign networks to gi-e domestic com%anies a com%etiti-e edge8as China is accused o doing9. “/e do not use oreign intelligence ca%abilities to steal the trade secrets o oreign

com%anies on behal o4or gi-e intelligence we collect to4U.S. com%anies to enhance their international

com%etiti-eness or increase their bottom line,! she said. 5im ewis, a senior ellow with the Center or Strategicand 7nternational Studies, agreed that 6SA s%ying to sto% terrorist attacks is undamentally di2erent rom China

stealing business secrets to boost its own economy. Le also said there is wides%read misunderstanding o how the

6SA works, but he acknowledged that there is a trust problem4usti3ed or not.! Le

%redicted that rebuilding trust with the tech community will be one o the to%challenges or Jike Rogers, who was sworn in as the new 6SA director earlier thismonth. “All the tech com%anies are in -arying degrees unha%%y and not eager toha-e a close relationshi% with 6SA,! ewis said.

)hat*s key to cybersecurity

1# +ackdoors make cyberterrorism a ticking time bomb

Seneue 1' Gareth, 7C %roessional with a %articular ocus on U67N

Architecture M 0esign, holds a degree in 1hiloso%hy'1olitics rom the Uni-ersity o

Sydney, Ale( Comninos, an inde%endent researcher ocusing on inormation andcommunications technology and %olitics, a 0octoral Candidate at 5ustus)iebigUni-ersity in Giessen, Germany at the 0e%artment o Geogra%hy, where he isconducting doctoral research on the challenges and constraints o the use o user)generated geogra%hic inormation systems in ;gy%t, ibya, and 6orth and Sudanin "#$# to "#$$, =Cyber security, ci-il society and -ulnerability in an age ocommunications sur-eillance=, "#$@, 5ustus)iebig Uni-ersity Giessen and GeistConsulting, giswatch.org'en'communications)sur-eillance'cyber)security)ci-il)society)and)-ulnerability)age)communications)sur

he rele-ance o Snowden+s disclosures to cyber security he sco%e and reach othe 6SA+s sur-eillance is im%ortant. The %S!/s surveillance posture is O as has been

re%eated by General Peith Ale(ander, and is reIected in the 6SA slide in Figure $ O to collect it all&D"

rom undersea cable ta%s, to Hahoo -ideo chats, to in)Iight /i)Fi, to -irtual worlds

and online multi%layer games like Second ie and /orld o /arcrat. he 6SA has at least three di2erent%rogrammes to get Hahoo and Google user data. his shows that they try to get the same data rom multi%le

mechanisms.DD /ith the GCLQ under the JUSCUAR %rogramme it hacked into the internal data links o Google

and HahooD@ or inormation that it could mostly ha-e gotten through the 1R7SJ %rogramme. 7n addition tohighlighting the 6SA+s massi-e institutional o-erreach and global %ri-acy in-asion,

Snowden/s disclosures also highlight the many points at which our data is

insecure$ and the vast numbers of vulnerabilities to sur-eillance that eist

throughout our digital world. Lowe-er, while the 6SA is the largest threat in the

sur-eillance game, it is not the only threat. Go-ernments all around the world areusing the internet to sur-eil their citi<ens. 3onsidering the rate of

technological change$ it is not unforeseeable that the methods $ tools and

vulnerabilities used by the %S! will be the tools of states$ cyber criminals

and lowskilled hackers of the future. Regardless o who the %ercei-ed attacker

or sur-eillance o%erati-e may be, and whether it is the 6SA or not, largescale$

mass surveillance is a growing cyber security threat. 7t has also been disclosed that

the 6SA and GCLQ ha-e acti-ely worked to make internet and technology users around



the world less secure. The %S! has placed backdoors in routers running vital

internet infrastructures.D he GCLQ has im%ersonated social networking websites like inked7n in

order to target system administrators o internet ser-ice %ro-iders.D he 6SA has been working withthe GCLQ to hack into Google and Hahoo data centres.DT The %S! also works to

undermine encryption technologies , by co-ertly inIuencing the use o weak

algorithms and random number generators in encry%tion %roducts andstandards.D he 6SA in its own words is working under the BURU6 %rogrammeto =insert -ulnerabilities into commercial encry%tion systems, 7 systems,networks, and end%oint communications de-ices used by targets= and to “inIuence%olicies, standards and s%eci3cations or commercial Vencry%tionW technologies.!D?

The %S! is also believed to hoard knowledge about vulnerabilities rather

than sharing them with developers$ vendors and the general public,@# as

well as even maintaining a catalogue of these vulnerabilities for use in

surveillance and cyber attacks.@$ 6one o these acti-ities ser-e to make theinternet more secure. 7n act, they do the -ery o%%osite. As US CongresswomanXoe ogren commented& “/hen any industry or organisation builds a backdoor toassist with electronic sur-eillance into their %roduct, they %ut all o our data

security at risk. *f a backdoor is created for law enforcement purposes$ it/s

only a matter of time before a hacker eploits it, in act we ha-e already seenit ha%%en.=@"

,# Norms-Curtailing sur$eillance is key to e.ecti$e norms(

building-that pre$ents cyber(%arfare

,arrell 2415, Lenry Farrell, 1h0 in Go-ernment rom Georgetown Uni-ersity,

Associate 1roessor o 1olitical Science and 7nternational A2airs, A%ril "#$,1romoting 6orms or Cybers%ace, Council on Foreign Relations,htt%&''www.cr.org'cybersecurity'%romoting)norms)cybers%ace'%DD:cidnlc)%ressYrelease)%ressYnote))link")"#$#@#Ms%Ymid@D$$DMs%YridH/t%b/KyeUBocDR-XGFnK<S#

*build norms) sot %ower is necessary) S1URS C1;RA76

*no one is listening to us rn

*A& reaties) no one listens to them

U.S. %olicymakers argue that the U nited S tates and others need to build norms to mitigatecybersecurity %roblems. Admiral Jichael S. Rogers, head o the 6ational Security Agency 86SA9 and

Cyber Command, has argued that shared norms are a basic building block or cybersecurity. Le has called onactors in academia and ci-il society to hel% design them and to assist in their s%read. 7t may seem strange that

1entagon o2icials are arguing or sot tools rather than hard military o%tions, but there are our

good reasons why norms are the best o%tion a-ailable. First, the United States is vulnerable to cyberattacks and this weakness is di2icult to address usingcon-entional tools o military statecrat. Second, it is di2icult to ensure that com%le(inormation systems are ully deended, since they may ha-e subtle technicalweaknesses. hird, classical deterrence is not easy in a world where it is otenchallenging to identiy so%histicated attackers, or e-en to know when an attack has taken %lace.

astly, treaties are hard to enorce because it is so di2icult to -eriy com%liance 4%articularly in cybers%ace, where wea%ons are sotware, not missiles. Although norms are ha<ier than

http://www.cfr.org/cybersecurity/promoting-norms-cyberspace/p36358?cid=nlc-press_release-press_note--link2-20150406&sp_mid=48385113&sp_rid=YWtpbWVyeUBoc3RvZGF5LnVzS0








treaty rules, they may still ha-e im%ortant conseuences. 6orms against the use o nuclear wea%ons ha-e taken

hold since the $?#s, making their use nearly unthinkable in ordinary circumstances. Robustcybersecurity norms might, o-er time, rule out some kinds o attacks asnormati-ely ina%%ro%riate. hey might encourage other states to see norm breachesas attacks on their security, too, s%urring coo% eration to %re-ent or sto% attacks. Finally,norms can %ro-ide shared understandings between states that allow them to work

together where they ha-e shared interests and manage relations where their interests clash. Challenges to

6orm 1romotion 7t is hard to s%read norms, e-en in the best circumstances. Unortunately,

these are ar rom the best circumstances or the United States. U.S. %olicymakers ace

three maor %roblems. First, it is easiest to %romote norms when one can in-oke common -alues to su%%ort them,

yet the world>s cyber %owers ha-e di2erent4and radically incom%atible4-alues o-er how to %rotect cybers%ace.he clashing interests between democratic and authoritarian regimes on the -alue o an o%en 7nternet and

de3nitions o security make e2ecti-e global treaties im%ossible. Second, the %otential ado%ters o normsare likely to be more rece%ti-e i they do not think the %ro%onent o the norms isacting in bad aith. o be sure, many states were ha%%y to use the Snowdenre-elations as a co-er or o%%osition to any rules o beha-ior /ashington mighto2er. But or others, e0orts at persuasion have been damaged by the eposed

gap between U.S. rhetoric and actions. At the -ery least, other states must be %ersuaded that

ollowing a norm is in their national interest. he disclosures, howe-er, reinorced the -iew o many states that theUnited States dis%ro%ortionately bene3ts rom an o%en, global, and secure 7nternet, and is only committed to

these -alues to the e(tent that they urther U.S. economic, %olitical, and military obecti-es. 7n light o theSnowden disclosures , the U nited S tates is %oorly %laced to %ersuade other actorso its good aith or its commitment to shared interests and -alues. he e(tent o thedamage to the U.S. re%utation was re-ealed when the United States accused 6orthPorea o hacking into Sony>s ser-ers and announced its intention to retaliate against 6orth Porea

through low)le-el sanctions. Building on %re-ious indictments o Chinese soldiers or hacking into U.S. 3rms, U.S.o2icials ollowed an a%%roach o =naming and shaming= cyberattackers while %ursuing sanctions and %ossible

criminal charges. hese actions are highly unlikely to result in successul %rosecutions, but %otentially ser-e a

normati-e %ur%ose by signaling to the world that some actions are unacce%table. Although a ew states critici<ed

6orth Porea, many did not buy U.S. claims that 1yongyang was res%onsible. Jemberso the business and technology communities also e(%ressed %olite ske%ticism o-er the

e-idence su%%lied by the Federal Bureau o 7n-estigation.

3# )rust-)he SS"A %ould rebuild trust bet%een the

go$ernment and the pri$ate sector-that*s key to cybersecurity

6e7ima$ reporter 8 The "ashington 9ost$ 15

Patie, =bama signs e(ecuti-e order on sharing cybersecurity threat inormation=,Feb $" "#$, www.washington%ost.com'blogs'%ost)%olitics'w%'"#$'#"'$"'obama)to)sign)e(ecuti-e)order)on)cybersecurity)threats'

*go-ernment and industry aren+t working together

*A& N) that ust makes communication easier doesn+t mandate it

*encry%tion sets u% %roblems with %ri-ate and %ublic sectors

1A A, Cali. O 1resident bama signed an e(ecuti-e order Friday that urgescom%anies to share cybersecurity)threat inormation with one another and theederal go-ernment. bama signed the order, which is ad-isory in nature, at the 3rst /hite Louse summit

on Cybersecurity and Consumer 1rotection at Stanord Uni-ersity here. he summit, which ocused on %ublic)

%ri-ate %artnershi%s and consumer %rotection, is %art o a recent /hite Louse %ush to ocus on cybersecurity.bama said the %ros%ect o cyberattacks are one o the nation>s most %ressing national security, economic and

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/02/12/obama-to-sign-executive-order-on-cybersecurity-threats/






saety issues. he s%ecter o a cyberattack cri%%ling the nation>s air tra2ic control system or a city with a blackoutis real, and hacks such as the one on Sony 1ictures last year are =hurting America>s com%anies and costing

American obs.= Le also said they are a threat to the security and well)being o children who are online. =7t+s one

o the great %arado(es o our time that the -ery technologies that em%ower us to do great good can also be usedto undermine us and inIict great harm,= bama said beore a cheering, riendly audience here at Stanord>s

Jemorial Auditorium. he order the %resident signed here encourages the de-elo%mento central clearinghouses or com%anies and the go-ernment to share data and

creation o centers where data can be shared across s%eci3c geogra%hic regions.bama %ushed or collaboration between the %ublic and %ri-ate sectors. There/s

only one way to defend !merica from these cyber threats$ and that is

through government and industry working together $ sharing appropriate

information as true partners$ he said. JasterCard chie e(ecuti-e Aay Banga

%raised bama+s e(ecuti-e action but said that eventually we need a real

legislative solution . An e(ecuti-e action can only take you this ar.! “Rather than 3ght

this in indi-iduali<ed grou%s, there+s some merit in oining hands and doing it together,! Banga said. bama>sorder is %art o a broader /hite Louse e2ort to bee u% the nation>s cybersecurityinrastructure, something the administration wants to %ush on Ca%itol Lill. ast

month bama %ro%osed legislation that would shield com%anies rom lawsuits or sharing threat data with the

go-ernment. ast month he %ro%osed legislation that would shield com%anies rom lawsuits or sharing threatdata with the go-ernment. bama said shortly ater he took o2ice he reali<ed that cybersecurity is =one o the

most serious economic national security challenges that we ace as a nation= and made conronting them a

%riority. bama has signed other e(ecuti-e orders, including one that calls or the creation o -oluntary standardsto bolster the security o com%uter networks in critical industries and a ramework or cybersecurity and another

last year to %rotect consumers rom identity thet. So ar nothing has been able to stem the tide o attacks such as

the one against Sony or others against retailers including Lome 0e%ot. Both %ri-acy grou%s and Silicon Kalley com%anies ha-e said they would o%%ose the legislation bama %ro%osed last

month unless reforms are +rst made to the %S!:s surveillance program . 7n an

inter-iew with Re'Code, bama acknowledged tensions with Silicon Kalley ater the 6SA disclosures. = The

Snowden disclosures ... were really harmful in terms of the trust between

the government and many of these companies , in %art because it had anim%act on their bottom lines ,= bama said. he %resident also said that there should be a =%ublic

con-ersation= about encry%tion and said he likely leans more toward strong data encry%tion than lawenorcement, but is sym%athetic to them because o the %ressure they are under to kee% %eo%le sae. U.S.go-ernment sur-eillance acti-ities ha-e been seen as a %otential liability or techcom%anies that o%erate globally. “Se-enty to # %ercent o the user bases or a lot o these com%anies

are the oreigners who get -ery little %rotection under our system,! e(%lained 5ulian Sanche<, a senior ellow

ocused on technology and ci-il liberties at the Cato 7nstitute. “7 they don+t dis%lay some %ush back, they know

they won+t do -ery well with those markets.! 7n 0ecember o "#$D, maor tech com%aniesincluding A%%le, Google, witter, Facebook, Jicrosot and Hahoo oined together inthe Reorm Go-ernment Sur-eillance coalition, urging the 1resident and Congressto im%ose restrictions and o-ersight measures on U.S. s%ying %rograms. he1resident agreed in %rinci%le to some limits on s%ying %rograms, including the bulk

collection o domestic %hone records, during a s%eech last year. But progress on reforms has

been too slow or some %ri-acy ad-ocates , as the administration urged orlegislati-e action that has yet to succeed. ech com%anies , meanwhile, ha-e takensome measures into their own hands by strengthening and epanding their

de%loyment o encryption to secure users> online acti-ities O setting up a

conict between the companies and law enforcement who warn that such

actions may make it harder for them to pursue crime and terrorism whichincreasingly includes a digital com%onent. “7 think it+s air to say that changes on the technology



ront ha-e out%aced go-ernmental and legislati-e e2orts,! said Andrew Crocker, a legal ellow at ci-il libertiesgrou% the ;lectronic Frontier Foundation.



lan The nited States federal governent should substantially curtail its use of

doestic backdoor encryption standards and doestic etadata collection

progras*



nternetCompetiti$eness is $ital to hegemony and con0ict suppression;ubbard, "pen Society Aoundations progra assistant, 2414

85esse, “Legemonic Stability heory& An ;m%irical Analysis!, )",

htt%&''isr.word%ress.com'"#$#'#'"'hegemonic)stability)theory'9

Regression analysis o this data shows that 1earson+s r)-alue is ).D. 7n the case o

American hegemony, economic strength is a better predictor of -iolent

conict than even overall national %ower , which had an r)-alue o ).$?. he data is also well within

the realm o statistical signi3cance, with a %)-alue o .##$@. /hile the data or British hegemony was not as striking, the sameo-erall %attern holds true in both cases. 0uring both %eriods o hegemony, hegemonic strength was negati-ely related with -iolentconIict, and yet use o orce by the hegemon was %ositi-ely correlated with -iolent conIict in both cases. Finally, in both cases,economic %ower was more closely associated with conIict le-els than military %ower. Statistical analysis created a morecom%licated %icture o the hegemon+s role in ostering stability than initially antici%ated. K7. Conclusions and 7m%lications orheory and 1olicy o elucidate some answers regarding the com%le(ities my analysis unearthed, 7 turned 3rst to the e(istingtheoretical literature on hegemonic stability theory. he e(isting literature %ro-ides some %otential rameworks or understandingthese results. Since economic strength %ro-ed to be o such crucial im%ortance, ree(amining the literature that ocuses onhegemonic stability theory+s economic im%lications was the logical 3rst ste%. As e(%lained abo-e, the literature on hegemonic

stability theory can be broadly di-ided into two cam%s O that which ocuses on the international economic system, and that which

ocuses on armed conIict and instability. his research alls suarely into the second cam%, but insights rom the 3rst cam% arestill o rele-ance. ;-en Pindleberger+s early work on this uestion is o rele-ance. Pindleberger %osited that the economicinstability between the First and Second /orld /ars could be attributed to the lack o an economic hegemon 8Pindleberger $?TD9. But economic instability ob-iously has s%illo-er e2ects into the

international %olitical arena. Peynes, writing ater //7, warned in his seminal tract he ;conomic Conseuences o the 1eace thatGermany+s economic humiliation could ha-e a radicali<ing e2ect on the nation+s %olitical culture 8Peynes $?$?9. Gi-en latere-ents, his warning seems %rescient. 7n the years since the Second /orld /ar, howe-er, the ;uro%ean continent has not rela%sed

into armed conIict. /hat was di2erent ater the second global conIagration: Crucially, the United States was in a ar more%owerul %osition than Britain was ater //7. As the tables abo-e show, Britain+s economic strength ater the First /orld /ar wasabout $DZ o the total in strength in the international system. 7n contrast, the United States %ossessed about DZ o relati-eeconomic %ower in the international system in the years immediately ollowing //77. he U.S. hel%ed rebuild ;uro%e+s economicstrength with billions o dollars in in-estment through the Jarshall 1lan, assistance that was ne-er a-ailable to the deeated%owers ater the First /orld /ar 8Pindleberger $?TD9. he interwar years were also marked by a series o debilitating trade warsthat likely worsened the Great 0e%ression 87bid.9. 7n contrast, when Britain was more %owerul, it was able to acilitate greaterree trade, and ater /orld /ar 77, the United States %layed a leading role in creating institutions like the GA that had anessential role in acilitating global trade 8rganski $?9. he %ossibility that economic stability is an im%ortant actor in the

o-erall security en-ironment should not be discounted, es%ecially gi-en the results o my statistical analysis. Anothertheory that could %ro-ide insight into the %atterns obser-ed in this research is thato %re%onderance o %ower. Gil%in theori<ed that when a state has the

preponderance of power in the international system$ rivals are more likely

to resolve their disagreements without resorting to armed conict 8Gil%in$?D9. he logic behind this claim is sim%le O it makes more sense to challenge a weaker hegemon than a stronger one. his

sim%le yet %owerul theory can hel% e(%lain the %u<<lingly strong %ositi-e correlation between military conIicts engaged in by thehegemon and conIict o-erall. 7t is not necessarily that military in-ol-ement by the hegemon instigates urther conIict in theinternational system. Rather, this military in-ol-ement could be a unction o the hegemon+s weaker %osition, which is the true

cause o the higher le-els o conIict in the international system. Additionally, it is im%ortant to note that

military power is$ in the long run, dependent on economic strength. hus, it is

%ossible that as hegemons lose relative economic power$ other nations are

tempted to challenge them even if their shortterm military capabilities arestill strong. his would hel% e(%lain some o the -ariation ound between the economic and military data. he results o

this analysis are o clear im%ortance beyond the realm o theory. As the debate rages o-er the role o the United States in theworld, hegemonic stability theory has some useul insights to bring to the table. /hat this research makes clear is that a stronghegemon can e(ert a %ositi-e inIuence on stability in the international system. Lowe-er, this should not gi-e %olicymakers a

usti3cation to engage in conIict or escalate military budgets %urely or the sake o international stability. 7 anything,this research %oints to the central im%ortance o economic inIuence in osteringinternational stability. o misconstrue these 3ndings to ustiy anything else wouldbe a gra-e error indeed. Legemons may %lay a stabili<ing role in the international

http://isrj.wordpress.com/2010/05/28/hegemonic-stability-theory/

http://isrj.wordpress.com/2010/05/28/hegemonic-stability-theory/



system, but this role is com%licated. *t is economic strength$ not military

dominance that is the true test of hegemony. ! weak state with a strong

military is a paper tiger O it may a%%ear earsome, but it is -ulnerable to e-en ashort blast o wind.

.shoring pre$ents tech from being de$eloped that hurts

hegemony2cCormack' ,14, editor at $anufacturing and Technology 'ews (/ichard,

&efense Science Board ":shoring "f *S* $anufacturing 1as Created 'ational

Security Eulnerabilities4, http))www*anufacturingnews*co)news)2;<?)&SB

;<<?<*htl

Aor the >rst tie perhaps ever, a *S*governent report has stated that the shift of

%erican anufacturing overseas is causing a decline in %ericansG standard of

living* $ost governent econoic and trade o6cials have argued that the oveent of anufacturing o:shore

has allowed lowincoe %ericans to buy cheaper products, saving the thousands of dollars a year and iproving

their standard of living* Fason Auran, Chairan of the Council of .conoic %dvisors, stated in a paper he authored

shortly before 9oining the "baa adinistration that Hthere is little dispute that #alartGs price reductions have

bene>ted the <2; illion %erican workers eployed outside the retail sector*H %ccording to the =entagonGs&efense Science Board, that assertion is in dispute* %nd the situation of o:shore outsourcing of

anufacturing is leading to uch greater strategic conse@uences for the *S*

econoy and its ilitary* H":shoring of anufacturing capabilities resulted fro

capital induceents such as wage structures, ta rates, weaker environental regulations or

enforceent or available resources,H notes the &SB* H These shifts are causing lower

standards of living as a result of the loss of fabrication facilities, and are further

eacerbated by subse@uent losses in underlying technology, such as the igration

of supporting design and testing capabilities* /ecent >nancial, political and

econoic crises have created signi>cant uncertainty regarding continued

sustainability of the current inno$ation system that feeds the defense

technology base*H The shift of anufacturing fro the nited States to China and!ndia is a leading threat to the *S* ilitary advantage, according to the &efense

Science Board in its HTechnology and !nnovation .nablers for Superiority in 2;;H report recently posted

on the web for public viewing* H$oveent of critical anufacturing capability o:shore may

pose signicant challenges,H states the &SB* The shift of anufacturing to foreign

nations H also a.ects &#S # tech nology leadership by enabling new players to

learn a tech nology and then gain the capability to iprove on it* %n additional threat

to defense capabilities fro o:shore anufacturing is the potential for

compromise of the supply chain for key %eapons systems components#H The

nited States is not guaranteed econoic bene>t fro the increased production of natural gas, notes the &SB*

HBeing resourcerich will certainly contribute to econoic vigor in the nited States,

but capitaliDing on this new resource will depend on the ability to distribute the

goods produced as a result of relative energy price advantages* Selling agricultural,energy and anufactured products re@uires ready access to the global coon,

and all global distribution echaniss are ready targets for adversaries of the

nited States seeking to gain competiti$e ad$antage*H The rise of technically and

econoically strong foreign adversaies %ill challenge &#S# superiority in speed'

stealth and the precision of %eapons systems * "ther countries Harre likely to

develop counters to soe or all of the foundation technologies on which the *S*

has coe to rely,H states the &SB* H The advantages provided by capabilities such as I=S,



!nternetbased network counications, satellite reconnaissance and stealth

aircraft will be diinished and, in any cases, eliminated* To aintain superiority, it will be

necessary for the ilitary to develop new capabilities or tactics, techni@ues and procedures to continue to be

e:ective when capabilities on which it has relied over the past two decades are degraded or denied*H The

nited States can no longer Hplan to rely on un@uestioned technical leadership in all

>elds,H states the &efense Science Board* !n !ra@ and %fghanistan, the *S* ilitary has

e6posed its capabilities' tactics and $ulnerabilities* H$ilitary actions re@uiringepensive platfors and e@uipent with long logistical support tails generate

vulnerabilities ripe for e6ploitation, as the use of iprovised eplosive devices in

!ra@ and %fghanistan deonstrated, where a technologically unsophisticated

adversary created daage that was disproportionate to the technological and

>nancial investent* By 2;;, the increasing distribution and linkages available for technology

developent will likely enable creation of siilar destructive asyetries on a global scale*H !t will be

essential for the *S* ilitary to focus on how to protect assets and gain advantage

technologically in order to cope with the rise of sophisticated rivals* H0ongstanding

*S* ilitary advantages are at risk in a world of technological parity,H says the &SB*

H There is aple evidence that adversaries do, or will soon, possess technical capabilities

on par with the *S* in certain iportant niches* Technological parity does not necessarily eanthe *S* cannot copete ilitarily, but that participation in con7icts ay ipose signi>cantly higher costs*H

7egemony creates peace by pre$enting both great po%er and

regional con0icts

Stephen $* alt, 2;,, %erican professor of international a:airs at 1arvard

niversityGs Fohn A* 3ennedy School of Iovernent, %$./!C%' =/!$%C- !ts

=rospects and =itfalls4, http))www*hks*harvard*edu)fs)swalt)>les)art<sp2*pdf

% second conse@uence of *S* priacy is a decreased danger of greatpower rivalry

and a higher level of overall international tran@uility* !ronically, those who argue thatpriacy is no longer iportant, because the danger of war is slight, overlook the

fact that the etent of %erican priacy is one of the ain reasons why the risk of

greatpower war is as low as it is* Aor ost of the past four centuries, relations aong the a9or

powers have been intensely copetitive, often punctuated by a9or wars and occasionally by allout struggles for

hegeony* !n the >rst half of the twentieth century, for eaple, greatpower wars

killed over eighty illion people* Today, however, the doinant position of the

nited S tates places signi>cant liits on the possibility of greatpower copetition,

for at least two reasons* "ne reason is that because the nited S tates is currently so far ahead,

other a9or powers are not inclined to challenge its doinant position* 'ot only is

there no possibility of a hegeonic war4 (because there is no potential hegeon to ount a

challenge, but the risk of war via iscalculation is reduced by the overwheling gap

between the nited S tates and the other a9or powers* $iscalculation is ore likely to lead to

war when the balance of power is fairly even, because in this situation both sides can convince theselves that

they ight be able to win* #hen the balance of power is heavily skewed , however, the

leading state does not need to go to war and weaker states dare not try *J <2 '%E%0

#%/ C"00.I. /.E!.# The second reason is that the continued deployent of roughly two hundred thousand

troops in .urope and in %sia provides a further barrier to con7ict in each region* So long as *S* troops are

coitted abroad, regional powers know that launching a war is likely to lead to a

confrontation with the nited States* Thus, states within these regions do not worry



as uch about each other, because the *S* presence e:ectively prevents regional

con7icts fro breaking out* #hat Foseph Fo:e has tered the %erican paci>er4 is not the only

barrier to con7ict in .urope and %sia, but it is an iportant one* This tran@uiliDing e:ect is not

lost on %erica8s allies in .urope and %sia* They resent *S* doinance and dislike

playing host to %erican troops, but they also do not want ncle Sa4 to leave *K

Thus, *S* priacy is of bene>t to the nited States, and to other countries as well ,

because it dapens the overall level of international insecurity* #orld politics ight be

ore interesting if the nited States were weaker and if other states were forced to copete with each other ore

actively, but a ore eciting world is not necessarily a better one* % coparatively boring era ay provide few

opportunities for genuine herois, but it is probably a good deal ore pleasant to live in than interesting4 decades

like the <K;s or <K?;s*

.

No% is key' po%er gap is declining and leads to transition %ars9hang and Shi 11 L-uhan Mhang, researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for

International Peace, 0in Shi, Columbia University, independent consultant for the

Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Ban in !C, %erica8s decline %

harbinger of con7ict and rivalry4,

http))www*eastasiaforu*org)2;<<);<)22)aericasdeclineaharbingerofcon7ictandrivalry), &$intDN

=aul 3ennedy was probably right the S will go the way of all great powers O down* The individual draas of the

past decade O the Septeber 2;;< terrorist attacks, prolonged wars in the $iddle .ast and the >nancial crisis O

have delivered the world a essage S priacy is in decline* This does not necessarily ean

that the S is in systeic decline, but it encopasses a trend that appears to be negative and perhaps

alaring* %lthough the S still possesses incoparable ilitary prowess and its

econoy reains the world8s largest, the once seeingly indoitable chas that

separated %erica fro anyone else is narrowing * Thus, the global distribution of

power is shifting, and the inevitable result will be a world that is less peaceful,

liberal and prosperous, burdened by a dearth of e:ective con7ict regulation* "ver the past two

decades, no other state has had the ability to seriously challenge the S ilitary * nder these circustances, otivated by both opportunity and fear, any actors have bandwagoned

with S hegeony and accepted a subordinate role* Canada, ost of #estern .urope, !ndia,

Fapan, South 3orea, %ustralia, Singapore and the =hilippines have all 9oined the S, creating a status @uo

that has tended to ute great power con7icts* 1owever, as the hegeony that drew

these powers together withers, so will the pulling power behind the S alliance* The

result will be an international order where power is ore di:use, %erican interests

and in7uence can be ore readily challenged, and con7icts or wars ay be harder

to avoid* %s history attests, power decline and redistribution result in ilitary

confrontation* Aor eaple, in the late <Kth century %erica8s eergence as a regional power saw it launch its

>rst overseas war of con@uest towards Spain* By the turn of the 2;th century, accopanying the increase in S

power and waning of British power, the %erican 'avy had begun to challenge the notion that Britain Prules thewaves*8 Such a notion would eventually see the S attain the status of sole guardians of the #estern 1eisphere8s

security to becoe the ordercreating 0eviathan shaping the international syste with deocracy and rule of law*

&e>ning this Scentred syste are three key characteristics enforceent of property

rights, constraints on the actions of powerful individuals and groups and soe

degree of e@ual opportunities for broad segents of society* %s a result of such political

stability, free arkets, liberal trade and 7eible >nancial echaniss have

appeared* %nd, with this, any countries have sought opportunities to enter this syste,

proliferating stable and cooperative relations* 1owever, what will happen to these advances as

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/






%erica8s in7uence declinesQ Iiven that %erica8s authority, although sullied at ties, has

bene>ted people across uch of 0atin %erica, Central and .astern .urope, the

Balkans, as well as parts of %frica and, @uite etensively, %sia, the answer to this

@uestion could a:ect global society in a profoundly detriental way* =ublic

iagination and acadeia have anticipated that a posthegeonic world would

return to the probles of the <K;s regional blocs, trade con7icts and strategic rivalry*Aurtherore, ultilateral institutions such as the !$A, the #orld Bank or the #T" ight

give way to regional organisations* Aor eaple, .urope and .ast %sia would each step

forward to >ll the vacuu left by #ashington8s withering leadership to pursue their

own visions of regional political and econoic orders * Aree arkets would becoe

ore politicised O and, well, less free O and a9or powers would copete for

supreacy* %dditionally, such power plays have historically possessed a Derosu

eleent* !n the late <KR;s and <K;s, S econoic power declined relative to the rise of the

Fapanese and #estern .uropean econoies, with the S dollar also becoing less attractive* %nd, as %erican

power eroded, so did international regies (such as the Bretton #oods Syste in <K* % world

without %erican hegeony is one where great power wars reeerge, the liberal

international syste is supplanted by an authoritarian one , and trade protectionis

devolves into restrictive, antiglobalisation barriers* This, at least, is one possibility we can

forecast in a future that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled S priacy*

:conomic lo%s increase the likelihood for global %ar

"oyal 1 (Fedediah, &irector of Cooperative Threat /eduction *S* &epartent

of &efense, .conoic !ntegration, .conoic Signaling and the =roble of

.conoic Crises4, .conoics of #ar and =eace .conoic, 0egal and =olitical

=erspectives, .d* Ioldsith and Brauer, p* 2<2<5

0ess intuitive is how periods of econoic decline a y increase the likelihood of e6ternal

con0ict* =olitical science literature has contributed a oderate degree of attention to the ipact of econoic

decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states* /esearch in this vein has been considered

at systeic, dyadic and national levels* Several notable contributions follow* Airst, on the systeic level, =ollins

(2;;J advances $odelski and ThopsonGs (<KKR work on leadership cycle theory, >nding that rhyths in the

global econoy are associated with the rise and fall of a preeinent power and the

often bloody transition from one preeinent leader to the net* %s such, eogenous shocks

such as econoic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Iilpin*

<KJ< that leads to uncertainty about power balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation

(Aeaver, <KK5* %lternatively, even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a

permissi$e en$ironment for con0ict as a rising power ay seek to challenge a declining power

(#erner* <KKK* Separately, =ollins (<KKR also shows that global econoic cycles cobined with parallel leadership

cycles ipact the likelihood of con7ict aong a9or, ediu and sall powers, although he suggests that the

causes and connections between global econoic conditions and security conditions reain unknown* Second, on a

dyadic level, CopelandGs (<KKR, 2;;; theory of trade epectations suggests that Gfuture epectation of

tradeG is a signicant $ariable in understanding econoic conditions and security

behaviour of states* 1e argues that interdependent states are likely to gain paci>c bene>ts fro trade so

long as they have an optiistic view of future trade relations* 1owever, if the epectations of future

trade decline, particularly for di6cult to replace ites such as energy resources, the likelihood for

con0ict increases , as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those

resources # C rises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade epectations either on

its own or because it triggers protectionist oves by interdependent states*? Third, others have considered

the link between econoic decline and eternal ared con7ict at a national level*



Bloberg and 1ess (2;;2 >nd a s trong correlat ion between internal con7ict and

eternal con0ict' particularly during periods of economic do%nturn* They write The

linkages between internal and eternal con7ict and prosperity are strong and utually reinforcing* .conoic

con7ict tends to spawn internal con7ict, which in turn returns the favour* $oreover, the presence of a

recession tends to amplify the e6tent to which international and eternal con7icts

selfreinforce each other* (Bloberg U 1ess, 2;;2* p* JK .conoic decline has also been

linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Bloberg, 1ess, U #eerapana,

2;;?, which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to eternal tensions* Aurtherore, crises generally

reduce the popularity of a sitting governent* H&iversionary theoryH suggests that, when facing

unpopularity arising fro econoic decline, sitting governents have increased

incentives to fabricate eternal ilitary con7icts to create a Grally around the 7agG

e:ect* #ang (<KKR, &e/ouen (<KK5* and Bloberg, 1ess, and Thacker (2;;R >nd supporting evidence showing

that econoic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated* Ielpi (<KK, $iller (<KKK, and 3isangani

and =ickering (2;;K suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for

deocratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that deocratic leaders are generally ore

susceptible to being reoved fro o6ce due to lack of doestic support* &e/ouen (2;;; has provided evidence

showing that periods of weak econoic perforance in the &nited States, and thus weak

=residential popularity, are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force* !n

suary, recent econoic scholarship positively correlates econoic integration with an increase in the fre@uency

of econoic crises, whereas political science scholarship links economic decline %ith

e6ternal con0ict at systeic, dyadic and national levels*5 This iplied connection between

integration, crises and ared con7ict has not featured proinently in the econoicsecurity debate and deserves

ore attention*

Surveillance is hurting cloud computing < they are moving to

other countries

=ehl$ 1olicy Analyst at 6ew America+s %en echnology 7nstitute, 1'

0aielle, Pe-in Bankston, 1olicy 0irectorat 7, Robyn Greene, 1olicy Counsel at7, Robert Jorgus, Research Associate at 7, =Sur-eillance Costs& he 6SA>s7m%act on the ;conomy, 7nternet Freedom M Cybersecurity=, 5uly "#$@, 6ew

America>s %en echnology 7nstitute 1olicy 1a%er,htt%s&''www.newamerica.org'downloads'Sur-eilanceYCostsYFinal.%d

Costs to the U.S. Cloud Com%uting 7ndustry and Related Business rust in American businesses has taken a signi3cant hit s ince the initial re%orts on the 1R7SJ

%rogram suggested that the 6SA was directly ta%%ing into the ser-ers o nine U.S.com%anies to obtain customer data or national security in-estigations." he

/ashington 1ost+s original story on the %rogram %ro-oked an u%roar in the media and %rom%ted the C;s o

se-eral maor com%anies to deny knowledge o or %artici%ation in the %rogram."? he e(act nature o the reuests

made through the 1R7SJ %rogram was later clari3ed,D# but the %ublic attention on the relationship

between !merican companies and the %S! still created a signi+cant trust

gap , es%ecially in industries where users entrust com%anies to store sensiti-e%ersonal and commercial data. “ast year+s national security leaks ha-e also had a commercial and

3nancial im%act on American tech nology com%anies that ha-e %ro-ided these records,! noted

Re%resentati-e Bob Goodlatte, a %rominent Re%ublican leader and Chairman o the Louse 5udiciary Committee, in

Jay "#$@. “hey ha-e e(%erienced backlash rom both American and oreign

https://www.newamerica.org/downloads/Surveilance_Costs_Final.pdf




consumers and ha-e had their com%etiti-e standing in the global market%lacedamaged .!D$ Gi-en heightened concerns about the 6SA+s ability to access datastored by U.S. com%anies, it is no sur%rise that !merican companies o0ering

cloud computing and webhosting services are among those eperiencing

the most acute economic fallout from %S! surveillance. /ithin ust a ew weeks o

the 3rst disclosures, re%orts began to emerge that American cloud com%uting com%anies like 0ro%bo( and

Ama<on /eb Ser-ices were starting to lose business to o-erseas com%etitors.D" he C; o Artmotion, one oSwit<erland+s largest o2shore hosting %ro-iders, re%orted in 5uly "#$D that his com%any had seen a @ %ercent

um% in re-enue since the 3rst leaks,DD an early sign that the country+s %ercei-ed neutrality and strong data and

%ri-acy %rotectionsD@ could %otentially be turned into a serious com%etiti-e ad-antage.D ,oreign

companies are clearly poised to bene+t rom growing ears about the securityrami3cations o kee%ing data in the United States. 7n a sur-ey o D## British andCanadian businesses released by 1;;R $ in 5anuary "#$@,D " %ercent ores%ondents indicated that they were mo-ing data outside o the U.S. as a result othe 6SA re-elations. An o-erwhelming number o the com%anies sur-eyedindicated that security and data %ri-acy were their to% concerns, with $ %ercentstating that they “want to know e(actly where their data is being hosted.! Se-enty%ercent were e-en willing to sacri3ce %erormance in order to ensure that theirdata was %rotected.DT 7t a%%ears that little consideration was gi-en o-er the %ast decade to the %otential

economic re%ercussions i the 6SA+s secret %rograms were re-ealed.D his ailure was acutely demonstrated bythe bama Administration+s initial ocus on reassuring the %ublic that its %rograms %rimarily a2ect non)

Americans, e-en though non)Americans are also hea-y users o American com%anies+ %roducts. Facebook C;

Jark Xuckerberg %ut a 3ne %oint on the issue, saying that the go-ernment “blew it! in its res%onse to the scandal.Le noted sarcastically& “he go-ernment res%onse was, [h don+t worry, we+re not s%ying on any Americans.+ h,

wonderul& that+s really hel%ul to com%anies Vlike FacebookW trying to ser-e %eo%le around the world, and that+s

really going to ins%ire con3dence in American internet com%anies.!D? As Xuckerberg+s comments reIect,

certain %arts o the American technology industry are %articularly -ulnerable tointernational backlash since growth is hea-ily de%endent on oreign markets. Fore(am%le, the U.S. cloud com%uting industry has grown rom an estimated \@billion in "## to \$# billion in "#$@, with nearly # %ercent o worldwide cloud)com%uting re-enues coming rom the U.S.@# R Street 7nstitute+s 5anuary "#$@

%olicy study concluded that in the ne(t ew years, new %roducts and ser-ices thatrely on cloud com%uting will become increasingly %er-asi-e. “3loud computing is

also the root of development for the emerging generation of "ebbased

applications 4home security, out%atient care, mobile %ayment, distance learning,e2icient energy use and dri-erless cars,! writes R Street+s Ste-en itch in the

study. “And it is a research area where the U nited S tates is a n undisputed

leader.!@$ This tra>ectory may be dramatically altered $ however$ as a

conseuence of the %S!/s surveillance programs. ?conomic forecasts after

the Snowden leaks have predicted signi+cant$ ongoing losses for the cloud

computing industry in the net few years. An August "#$D study by the7normation echnology and 7nno-ation Foundation 877F9 estimated that re-elations

about the 6SA +s 1R7SJ %rogram could cost the American cloud com%uting industry \""to \D billion o-er the ne(t three years.@" n the low end, the 77F %roection suggests that U.S.

cloud com%uting %ro-iders would lose $# %ercent o the oreign market share to ;uro%ean or Asian com%etitors,

totaling in about \"$. billion in lossesE on the high)end, the \D billion 3gure re%resents about "# %ercent o the

com%anies+ oreign market share. -ecause the cloud computing industry is undergoing

rapid growth right now 4a "#$" Gartner study %redicted global s%ending oncloud com%uting would increase by $## %ercent rom "#$" to "#$, com%ared to a

D %ercent o-erall growth rate in the tech industry as a whole@D4 vendors in this



sector are particularly vulnerable to shifts in the market. Failing to recruitnew customers or losing a com%etiti-e ad-antage due to e(%loitation by ri-alcom%anies in other countries can uickly lead to a dwindling market share . he77F study urther notes that “the %ercentage lost to oreign com%etitors could gohigher i oreign go-ernments enact %rotectionist trade barriers that e2ecti-ely cut

out U.S. %ro-iders,! citing early calls rom German data %rotection authorities tosus%end the U.S.);U Sae Larbor %rogram 8which will be discussed at length in the ne(t

section9.@@ As the R Street 1olicy Study highlights, “7ronically, the 6SA turned the com%etiti-eedge U.S. com%anies ha-e in cloud com%uting into a liability, es%ecially in ;uro%e.!@ 7n a

ollow u% to the 77F study, Forrester Research analyst 5ames Staten argued that the think

tank+s estimates were low, suggesting that the actual +gure could be as high as

@1A4 billion over three years.@ Staten highlighted two additional im%acts not

considered in the 77F study. he 3rst is that U.S. customers4not ust oreign com%anies4

would also avoid US cloud providers , es%ecially or international and o-erseasbusiness. he 77F study %redicted that American com%anies would retain their domestic market share, but

Staten argued that the economic blowback rom the re-elations would be elt at home, too. “Hou don+t ha-eto be a French com%any, or e(am%le, to be worried about the US go-ernmentsnoo%ing in the data about your French clients,! he wrote.@T Joreo-er, the analysis highlighted

a second and “ar more costly! im%act& that foreign cloud providers, too, would lose

as much as 24 percent of overseas and domestic business because of

similar spying programs conducted by other governments. 7ndeed, the 6SA

disclosures “ha-e %rom%ted a undamental re)e(amination o the role o intelligence ser-ices in conducting

coordinated cross)border sur-eillance,! according to a 6o-ember "#$D re%ort by 1ri-acy 7nternational on the“Fi-e ;yes! intelligence %artnershi% between the United States, the United Pingdom, Canada, Australia, and 6ew

Xealand.@ Staten %redicts that as the sur-eillance landsca%e around the world becomesmore clear, it could ha-e a serious negati-e im%act on all hosting and outsourcingser-ices, resulting in a " %ercent decline in the o-erall 7 ser-ices market, orabout \$# billion in losses.@? Recent re%orts suggest that things are, in act,mo-ing in the direction that analysts like Castro and Staten suggested.# A sur-eyo $,### “V7normation and Communications echnology 87C9W decision)makers! rom France,

Germany, Long Pong, the UP, and the USA in February and Jarch "#$@ ound that the

disclosures have had a direct impact on how companies around the world

think about *3T and cloud computing in particular .!$ According to the data rom 6

Communications, %ercent o decision)makers are changing their %urchasingbeha-ior when it comes to the cloud, with the -ast maority indicating that thelocation o the data is -ery im%ortant. he results do not bode well or recruitmento new customers, either4" %ercent o those currently not storing data in thecloud indicated that the re-elations ha-e since %re-ented them rom mo-ing their7C systems there. And 3nally, " %ercent suggested that they agree with%ro%osals made by German Chancellor Angela Jerkel in February "#$@ to ha-e se%arate

data networks or ;uro%e, which will be discussed in urther detail in 1art 777 o this re%ort. 1ro-idingdirect e-idence o this trend, Ser-int, a Kirginia)based webhosting com%any,re%orted in 5une "#$@ that international clients ha-e declined by as much as hal,dro%%ing rom a%%ro(imately # %ercent o its business to D# %ercent since theleaks began." "ith faith in U.S. companies on the decline$ foreign

companies are stepping in to take advantage of shifting public perceptions.

As Georg Jascolo and Ben Scott %redicted in a oint %a%er %ublished by the /ilson Center and the 6ew America

Foundation in ctober "#$D, “Jaor commercial actors on both continents are %re%aring o2ensi-e and deensi-e



strategies to battle in the market or a com%etiti-e ad-antage drawn rom Snowden+s re-elations.!D Fore(am%le, Runbo(, a small 6orwegian com%any that o2ers secure email ser-ice,re%orted a D@ %ercent um% in customers since 5une "#$D.@ Runbo( markets itsel as a saer

email and webhosting %ro-ider or both indi-idual and commercial customers, %romising that it “will ne-er

disclose any user data unauthori<ed, track your usage, or dis%lay any ad-ertisements.! Since the 6SAre-elations, the com%any has touted its %ri-acy)centric design and the act that its

ser-ers are located in 6orway as a com%etiti-e ad-antage. “Being 3rmly located in 6orway,

the Runbo( email ser-ice is go-erned by strict %ri-acy regulations and is a sae alternati-e to American email

ser-ices as well as cloud)based ser-ices that mo-e data across borders and urisdictions,! com%any

re%resentati-es wrote on its blog in early "#$@. F)Secure, a Finnish cloud storage com%any, similarly

em%hasi<es the act that “its roots VareW in Finland, where %ri-acy is a 3ercely guarded -alue.!T 9resenting

products and services as B%S!proof/ or Bsafer/ alternatives to !merican

made goods is an increasingly viable strategy for foreign companies hoping

to chip away at U.S. tech competiveness.

;orces companies to spend billions to start at s<uare one

0aura =onohue 15, =rofessor of 0aw at Ieorgetown 0aw, &irector of

Ieorgetown8s Center on 'ational Security and the 0aw, and &irector of the Center

on =rivacy and Technology, writes on *S* Constitutional 0aw, and national securityand counterterrorist law in the S, %*B*, &artouthV $*%*, niversity of lster,

'orthern !relandV =h*&*, Cabridge niversityV F*&*, Stanford, $arch 2;<5, 1igh

Technology, Consuer =rivacy, and *S* 'ational Security,4

http))scholarship*law*georgetown*edu)facpub)<?5)

Billions of dollars are on the line because of %orld%ide concern that the services

provided by *S* inforation technology copanies are neither secure nor

private*< =erhaps no%here is this more apparent than in cloud computing*W

=reviously, approiately 5;X of the worldwide cloud coputing revenues W derived

fro the nited States*<? The doestic arket thrived between 2;;J andW 2;<?, it

ore than tripled in value*W <5 But within weeks of the Snowden leaks, reports hadeerged that *S* copanies such as &ropbo, %aDon #eb Services, W and

$icrosoft8s %Dure were losing business*W <R By &eceber 2;<, ten percent of the

Cloud Security %lliance had cancelled *S* cloud services pro9ects as a result of the

Snowden inforation*< !n Fanuary 2;<? a survey of Canadian and British W

businesses found that one @uarter of the respondents %ere mo$ing their data

outside the &nited States*<JW The !nforation Technology and !nnovation

Aoundation estiates thatW declining revenues of corporations that focus on cloud

coputing and data storage alone could reach Y5 billion over the net three

years*<K "ther coentators, such as Aorrester /esearch analyst Faes Staten,

have put actual losses as high as >18 billion by 2;<R, unless soething is done

to restore con>dence in data heldW by *S* copanies*2;W The onetary ipact of

the 'S% progras etends beyond cloud coputing to the high technology

industry* Cisco, Zualco, !B$, $icrosoft, and 1ewlett=ackardW have all reported

declining sales as a direct result of the 'S% progras*2< W Servint, a webhosting

copany based in Eirginia, reported in Fune 2;<? that itsW international clients had

dropped by 5;X since the leaks began*22 %lso in Fune, the W Ieran governent

announced that because of EeriDon8s coplicity in the 'S%W progra, it would end

its contract with the copany, which had previouslyW provided services to a nuber

of governent departents*2 %s a senior analyst at W the !nforation Technology



and !nnovation Aoundation eplained, !t8s clear to every single tech copany that

this is a:ecting their botto line*42? The .uropeanW coissioner for digital a:airs,

'eelie 3roes, predicts that the fallout for *S*W businesses in the . alone will

aount to billions of .uros*25W 'ot only are *S* copanies losing custoers, but

they have been forced to spend billions to add encryption features to their services*

!B$ has invested ore than a billion dollars to build data centers in 0ondon, 1ong

3ong, Sydney, and elsewhere, in an e:ort to reassure consuers outside the nited

S tates that their inforation is protected from &#S# go$ernment sur$eillance*

2R Salesforce*co ade a siilar announceent in $arch 2;<?*2 Ioogle oved

to encrypt tersW entered into its browser*W 2J !n Fune 2;<? it took the additional

step of releasing theW source code for .ndto.nd, its newlydeveloped browser

plugin that allows usersW to encrypt eail prior to it being sent across the

!nternet*2K The following onthW $icrosoft announced Transport 0ayer Security for

inbound and outbound eail,W and =erfect Aorward Secrecy encryption for access to

"ne&rive*; Together with the establishent of a Transparency Center, where

foreign governents could review source code to assure theselves of the integrity

of $icrosoft software, the copany sought to put an end to both 'S% back door

surveillance and doubt about the integrity of $icrosoft products*W <W Aoreign

technology copanies, in turn, are seeing revenues increase* /unbo,W for instance,

an eail service based in 'orway and a direct copetitor to IailW and -ahoo,

alost iediately ade it publicly clear that it does not coply withW foreign court

re@uests for its custoers8 personal inforation* 2 !ts custoer base W increased

?X in the afterath of the Snowden leaks*W $ateo $eier, C." of W %rtotion,

SwitDerland8s biggest o:shore data hosting copany, reported thatW within the >rst

onth of the leaks, the copany saw a ?5X rise in revenue*?W Because

SwitDerland is not a eber of the ., the only way to access data in aW Swiss data

center is through an o6cial court order deonstrating guilt or liabilityV W there are no

eceptions for the nited States*5 !n %pril 2;<?, BraDil and the .,W which

previously used *S* >rs to supply undersea cables for transoceaniccounications, decided to build their own cables between BraDil and =ortugal,W

using Spanish and BraDilian copanies in the process* R "penTet, Canada8s

largest software copany, now guarantees custoers that their data reains

outside the nited State s* &eutsche Teleko, a cloud coputing provider, is

siilarly gaining ore custoers* 'uerous foreign copanies are marketing

their products as ?NSA proof@ or safer alternatives4 to those o:ered by *S*

>rs, gaining market share in the process*

Surveillance does lasting damage < only reforms solve

=ehl$ 9olicy !nalyst at %ew !merica/s Cpen Technology

*nstitute$ 1'

0aielle, Pe-in Bankston, 1olicy 0irectorat 7, Robyn Greene, 1olicy Counsel at7, Robert Jorgus, Research Associate at 7, =Sur-eillance Costs& he 6SA>s7m%act on the ;conomy, 7nternet Freedom M Cybersecurity=, 5uly "#$@, 6ew

America>s %en echnology 7nstitute 1olicy 1a%er,htt%s&''www.newamerica.org'downloads'Sur-eilanceYCostsYFinal.%d





3osts to Cverseas Tech Sales D he economic im%act o 6SA s%ying does not end

with the American cloud com%uting industry. According to he 6ew Hork imes, “;-en as

"ashington grapples with the di%lomatic and %olitical allout o Jr. Snowden/s leaks$ the

more urgent issue$ com%anies and analysts say, is economic.!? 7n the %ast year,

a number o !merican companies have reported declining sales in overseas

markets like 3hina 8where, it must be noted, sus%icion o the American go-ernment was already highbeore the 6SA disclosures9, loss of customers including foreign governments$ and

increased competition from nonU.S. services marketing themselves as

Bsecure/ alternatives to popular !merican products. here is alreadysigni+cant evidence linking %S! surveillance to direct harm to U.S.

economic interests . 7n 6o-ember "#$D, Cisco became one o the 3rst com%anies to %ublicly

discuss the im%act o the 6SA on its business, re%orting that orders rom China ell $ %ercentand that its worldwide re-enue would decline to $# %ercent in the ourth uarter,

in %art because o continued sales weakness in China.# 6ew orders in the de-elo%ing world ell$" %ercent in the third uarter, with the Bra<ilian market dro%%ing roughly " %ercento its Cisco sales.$ Although 5ohn Chambers, Cisco+s C;, was hesitant to blameall losses on the 6SA, he acknowledged that it was likely a actor in declining Chinese sales"

and later admitted that he had ne-er seen as ast a decline in an emerging market as the dro% in China in late

"#$D.D hese numbers were also released beore documents in Jay "#$@ re-ealed that the 6SA+s ailored Access %erations unit had interce%ted network gear4including Cisco routers4being shi%%ed to target

organi<ations in order to co-ertly install im%lant 3rmware on them beore they were deli-ered.@ 7n res%onse,

Chambers wrote in a letter to the bama Administration that “i these allegations are true, these actions

will undermine con+dence in our industry and in the ability of technology

companies to deliver products globally.# Juch like 3isco$ Eualcomm$ *-F$

Ficrosoft$ and ; ewlett 9 ackard all reported in late 241G that sales were

down in 3hina as a result of the %S! revelations. Sanord C. Bernsteinanalyst oni Sacconaghi has %redicted that ater the 6SA re-elations, “UStechnology com%anies ace the most re-enue risk in China by a wide margin, ollowed

by Bra<il and other emerging markets.!T 7ndustry obser-ers ha-e also uestioned whether

com%anies like A%%le4which ho%es to bring in signi3cant re-enue rom i1honesales in China4will eel the im%act o-erseas. ;-en AM re%ortedly acedintense scrutiny regarding its %ro%osed acuisition o Kodaone, a ;uro%ean wireless carrier, ater

ournalists re-ealed the e(tent o AM+s collaboration with the 6SA .? !merican

companies are also losing out on business opportunities and contracts with

large companies and foreign governments as a result of %S! spying. According

to an article in he 6ew Hork imes, “American businesses are being let o2 some reuestsor %ro%osals rom oreign customers that %re-iously would ha-e included them.!T#

his reers to German com%anies, or e(am%le, that are increasingly uncomortable gi-ing their

business to American 3rms. Jeanwhile, the Herman government plans to change

its procurement rules to %re-ent American com%anies that coo%erate with the

6SA or other intelligence organi<ations rom being awarded ederal 7 contracts.T$

he go-ernment has already announced it intends to end its contract with Keri<on,

which %ro-ides 7nternet ser-ice to a number o go-ernment de%artments.T" “here are indications that Keri<on is legally reuired to %ro-ide certain things to the 6SA, and that+s one othe reasons the coo%eration with Keri<on won+t continue,! a s%okesman or theGerman 7nterior Jinistry told the Associated 1ress in 5une.TD he 6SA disclosuresha-e similarly been blamed or Bra<il+s 0ecember "#$D decision to award a \@.billion contract to Saab o-er Boeing, an American com%any that had %re-iously



been the rontrunner in a deal to re%lace Bra<il+s Ieet o 3ghter ets.T@ /elber Barral, a

ormer Bra<ilian trade secretary, suggested to Bloomberg 6ews that Boeing would ha-e won the contract a year

earlier,T while a source in the Bra<ilian go-ernment told Reuters that “the %S!

problem ruined it for the !mericans.!T As we will discuss in greater de%th in the ne(t section,

Germany and Bra<il are also considering data locali<ation %ro%osals that could harm U.S. business interests and

%re-ent American com%anies rom entering into new markets because o high com%liance costs. Cost to 1ublic rust in

American Com%anies he %ressure is increasing on American com%anies to res%ond to the re-elations in order to mitigate %otential backlash and %re-ent oreign com%anies rom

%oaching their business. According to the R Street 7nstitute study, “7t a%%ears the 6SA+s aggressi-e sur-eillance has created an o-erall ear among U.S. com%anies that there is [guiltby association+ rom which they need to %roacti-ely distance themsel-es.!T? Some com%anies ha-e tried to regain trust by %ublicly stating that they are not %art o 1R7SJ or other6SA %rograms, issuing disclaimers along the lines o those %ublished by Ama<on and Salesorce in 5une "#$D.# thers that ha-e been directly linked to the 6SA %rograms ha-e%ublicly critici<ed the American go-ernment and called or greater trans%arency in order to rebuild user con3dence and counteract %otential economic harms.$ o that end, ninemaor American com%anies4A, A%%le, 0ro%bo(, Facebook, Google, inked7n, Jicrosot, witter, and Hahoo4oined together in the “Reorm Go-ernment Sur-eillance! cam%aign in

5anuary "#$@, where they launched a website and wrote an o%en letter to go-ernment leaders laying out %rinci%les or sur-eillance reorm, including an end to bulk collection ando%%osition to data locali<ation reuirements." Since the launch, the coalition has urged reorm on Ca%itol Lill through outreach and letters to Congress, su%%orted the February

"#$@ “he 0ay /e Fight Back! acti-ist cam%aign, and hired a lobbyist to bolster their e2orts to curb the 6SA+s reach.D his unlikely, %ublic %artnershi% o some o 7nternet+s biggestri-als s%eaks to the seriousness o the threats to their collecti-e business interests.@ 7ndeed, according to an A%ril "#$@ Larris %oll commissioned by a data security com%any, nearly

hal o the ",### res%ondents 8@T %ercent9 ha-e changed their online beha-ior since the 6SA leaks, %aying closer attention not only to the sites they -isit but also to what they say anddo on the 7nternet. 7n %articular, " %ercent indicated that they are now doing less online sho%%ing and banking since learning the e(tent o go-ernment sur-eillance %rograms.

Clearly, there are signi3cant 3nancial incenti-es or com%anies to distance themsel-es rom the %rograms, and a s a result, they are e(%ending ca%ital4actual and %olitical4to do so. ther com%anies ha-e taken it a ste% urther, de-elo%ing new %roducts or taking additional %recautions to assure customers that their data is sae rom the 6SA. “Jany tech

com%anies eel they ha-e no choice but to try to de-elo% 6SA resistant %roducts because customers rom China to Germany threaten to boycott American hardware and cloud ser-icesthey -iew as com%romised,! wrote USA oday in February "#$@. Com%anies like Hahoo and Google ha-e de-oted increased resources to hardening their systems against 6SA

sur-eillance in order to assure users that their data is adeuately %rotected.T Hahoo im%lemented automatic encry%tion on its email ser-ice in 5anuary "#$@, and in Jarch "#$@began encry%ting all tra2ic that mo-ed between its data centers, as well as ueries on its home%age and its messaging ser-ice. Google+s Kice 1resident or Security ;ngineering,;ric Grosse, reerred to e2orts to %rotect users+ data rom go-ernment sur-eillance as “an arms race,! when discussing the com%any+s mo-e last all to encry%t all inormationtra-elling between its data centers.? 7n 5une "#$@, Google un-eiled a source code e(tension or the Chrome browser called “;nd)to);nd! which is designed to make email encry%tioneasy, and announced a new section o its trans%arency re%ort called “Saer ;mail! which details the %ercentage o email that is encry%ted in transit and identi3es the %ro-iders whosu%%ort encry%tion.?# hese changes are %art o a new ocus on encouraging users and com%anies to harden their systems against 6SA sur-eillance, and the strategy a%%ears to beworking. Almost immediately, Comcast announced its %lans to work with Google to encry%t all email tra2ic e(changed with Gmail ater the cable com%any was described as one o the

worst o2enders in the new re%ort.?$ Jeanwhile, Jicrosot has been %ublici<ing its %olicy that allows customers to store their data in Jicrosot data centers in s%eci3c countries.?"

5ohn ;. Frank, de%uty general counsel at Jicrosot, told he 6ew Hork imes, “/e+re hearing rom customers, es%ecially global enter%rise customers, that they care more than e-er

about where their content is stored and how it is used and secured.!?D 7BJ is re%ortedly s%ending o-er a billion dollars to build o-erseas data centers in an e2ort to reassure oreigncustomers that their data is %rotected rom U.S. sur-eillance.?@ 7n reerence to oreign customers asking about whether their data is %rotected rom go-ernment snoo%ing, an 7BJe(ecuti-e said, “Jy res%onse is %rotect your data against any third %arty 4 whether it+s the 6SA, other go-ernments, hackers, terrorists, whate-er,! adding that it is time to “start

talking about encry%tion and K16s and all the ways you can %rotect yoursel.!? Finally, aced with an im%ossible choice between maintaining user trust and com%lying with

go-ernment reuests, a handul o American com%anies that %ro-ide secure email ser-ices ha-e had to shut down their o%erations altogether. a-abit, a secure email ser-ice %ro-iderthat e(%erienced a $,?## %ercent increase in account registrations ater the Snowden re-elations, shuttered its business ater it became clear that user data could not be %rotectedrom go-ernment sur-eillance. /hen the 6SA could not read a-ibit+s communications directly by breaking its encry%tion, the agency obtained orders com%elling the com%any tohand o-er inormation related to its encry%tion keys, which would ha-e gi-en the 6SA the ability to decry%t the communications o all @##,### o a-abit+s customers.? Silent Circle,a secure communications %ro-ider that saw a @## %ercent re-enue increase ollowing the Snowden re-elations, ollowed a-abit+s lead and shut down its secure mail ser-ice,

e(%laining that the decision was made because “we see the writing on the wall.!?T *t is abundantly clear that the %S!

surveillance programs are currently having a serious$ negative impact on

the U.S. economy and threatening the future competitiveness of !merican

tech nology companies . 6ot only are U.S. com%anies losing o-erseas sales andgetting dro%%ed rom contracts with oreign com%anies and go-ernments4they arealso watching their com%etiti-e ad-antage in ast)growing industries like cloudcom%uting and webhosting disa%%ear, o%ening the door or oreign com%anies whoclaim to o2er “more secure! alternati-e %roducts to %oach their business. 7ndustrye2orts to increase trans%arency and accountability as well as concrete ste%s to%romote better security by ado%ting encry%tion and other best %ractices are

%ositi-e signs, but U.S. companies cannot solve this problem alone. “7t+s not

blowing o-er,! said Jicrosot General Counsel Brad Smith at a recent conerence. “7n 5une o "#$@, it is clear it is

getting worse, not better.!? "ithout meaningful government reform and better

oversight$ concerns about the breadth of %S! surveillance could lead to

permanent shifts in the global technology market and do lasting damage to

the U.S. economy.

ts re$erse causual – cloud computing is key to the economyCo$iello' .ecutive Eice =resident, .$C Corporation, 11

%rt, HCan Cloud Coputing Save The %erican .conoyQH, $arch < 2;<<, Aorbes,

www*forbes*co)sites)ciocentral)2;<<);)<)cancloudcoputingsavethe

aericaneconoy)



The %erican drea is in peril fro the con7uence of sky rocketing de>cits, high

uneployent, and the ticking tie bob of an aging baby booer generation,

with its coincident increase in the burden of entitleents as a percentage of I&= * Aor

the >rst tie, the net generation of %ericans, our grandchildren, risk having a lower standard of living than we

en9oyed* !t is not a proble that can be reedied with ta increases and budget reductions* #e will not save

or cut our way back to econoic prosperity* )he %ay for%ard is inno$ation*

%erica ust innovate its way out of econoic stagnation and back to econoicgrowth* %s has been the case for the last <5; years, %ericans have always responded well in a crisis and yet

again, we are well positioned to lead the world out of this one* #ant proofQ %erican businesses systeically and

culturally react fast* Two years after the econoic downturn began the nited States was generating KX of its

econoic output with only K;X of the labor* This sort of gain in productivity ultiately translates into increased

econoic activity, the ability to pay down debt and a higher standard of living for those of us who are eployed*

nfortunately it does not directly address the issue of uneployent* The fact is that productivity gains

fro working harder can only take us so far* !nnovation and technology can and

ust take us the rest of the way, creating new 9obs and new industries* ur so

called4 information economy, for eaple, is ripe for inno$ation* Today, all

organiations are dependent on information tech nology# #hat akes e

optiistic about the future is that we have not even begun to scratch the surface of

all that can be accoplished by actually applying inforation technologypervasively* #e have spent trillions of dollars worldwide for the coputers to create

and process inforation, networks to ove it around and the hardware to store it*

But we are at a point where we spend R; to ;X of !T4 budgets 9ust to aintain

those systes and infrastructures* 'o wonder progress in applying !T is so slow* This is the

technology e@uivalent of every organiDation in the world, big or sall, investing the

capital and huan resources to build and operate their own electricity producing

power plants* But instead, picture a world where software platfors are available

online and easily custoiDable* =icture a world where copute power is generated

o: site, available in @uantities when and where you need it* %nd picture a world

where inforation is safely stored, e6ciently anaged and accessible, when and

where you need it* These are cloud infrastructures* The econoies of scale,7eibility and e6ciency they o:er will not only save organiDations assive aounts

of capital and aintenance costs but eancipate the to apply and use

inforation as never before* %n unbelievable opportunity to raise productivity while

creating unprecedented opportunities for businesses and workers* 'ow picture a health

care syste where a doctor has edical records at his >ngertips, can see rays with the click of a ouse, is able to

learn and apply the latest diagnostic and surgical techni@ue fro anywhere in the world* Think of the e6ciencies in

hospital supply chains, the delivery of prescription drugs, the processing of billing and insurance clais, reductions

in fraud, and the application of best practices for cost controls* The capacity for iproveent is endless* %s a

atter of fact, these innovations are already being applied in isolated pockets* But for us to seiDe the

opportunity before us it8s iperative that we ove fro isolated centers of

ecellence to connected systes of ecellence* =ick any industry and systeic iproveents like

these are available*

% new age of innovation and technology advanceent is within ourgrasp an opportunity for 9ob creation, greater productivity and econoic growth*

The tie for cloud coputing is now* #e need governent and industry to

accelerate broad scale adoption of cloud infrastructures so we can reap the rewards

of a true inforation based econoy* %s ! said at the outset, %ericans respond well in a crisis* !t is

the nature of our society egalitarian, free, open and copetitive that ake us the ost adaptive, inventive and

resilient country in the world* Tie again for us to lead*



No% is key – bleeding is happening plan can re$erse it

2indock 15 (By Clark $indock [clarkindock, 'S% Surveillance Could Cost

Billions Aor S !nternet Copanies %fter .dward Snowden /evelations4 on Fune <;

2;<5 2J =$ .&T

!nternational Business Ties\http))www*ibties*co)nsasurveillancecouldcost

billionsusinternetcopaniesafteredwardsnowden<K5K]^BCai

Aailure to refor 'ational Security %dinistration spying progras revealed by

.dward Snowden could be ore econoically taing than previously thought, says a

new study published by the !nforation Technology and !nnovation Aoundation Tuesday* The study suggests the

progras could be a:ecting the technology sector as a whole , not 9ust the cloud

coputing sector, and that the costs could soar uch higher than previously

epected* .ven odest declines in cloud coputing revenues fro the revealed

surveillance progras, according to a previous report, would cost between Y2<*5 billion and

Y5 billion by 2;<R * 'ew estiates show that the toll will likely far eceed !T!A8s

initial Y5 billion estiate*4 The *S* governent8s failure to refor any of the

'S%8s surveillance progras has daaged the copetitiveness of the *S* techsector and cost it a portion of the global arket share,4 a suary of the report said*

/evelations by defense contractor Snowden in Fune 2;< eposed assive *S* governent surveillance

capabilities and showed the 'S% collected %erican phone records in bulk, and without a warrant* The bulk phone

record revelations, and any others in the sae vein, including the re@uired coplacency of %erican teleco and

!nternet copanies in providing the data, raised @uestions about the transparency of %erican surveillance

progras and propted outrage fro privacy advocates* The study, published this week, argues

that unless the %erican governent can vigorously refor how 'S% surveillance is

regulated and overseen, &#S# companies %ill lose contracts and' ultimately'

their competiti$e edge in a global market as consumers around the %orld

choose cloud computing and technology options that do not ha$e potential

ties to American sur$eillance programs#

No root cause – %ar turns structural $iolence Foshua Boldstein, !nt8l /el =rof [ %erican , ,1, #ar and Iender, p* ?<2

Airst, peace activists face a dilea in thinking about causes of war and working for

peace* $any peace scholars and activists support the approach, if you want peace,

work for 9ustice*4 Then, if one believes that seis contributes to war one can work

for gender 9ustice speci>cally (perhaps aong others in order to pursue peace* This

approach brings strategic allies to the peace oveent (woen, labor, inorities,

but rests on the assuption that in9ustices cause war* The evidence in this book

suggests that causality runs at least as strongly the other way * ar is not a

product of capitalism' imperialism' gender' innate aggression' or any other

single cause' although all of these in7uence wars8 outbreaks and outcoes*/ather, war has in part fueled and sustained these and other in9ustices *K So,4if you

want peace, work for peace*4 !ndeed, if you want 9ustice (gender and others, work

for peace * Causality does not run 9ust upward through the levels of analysis, fro

types of individuals, societies, and governents up to war* !t runs downward too*

.nloe suggests that changes in attitudes towards war and the ilitary ay be the

ost iportant way to reverse woen8s oppression*4 The dilea is that peace

work focused on 9ustice brings to the peace oveent energy, allies, and oral



grounding, yet, in light of this book8s evidence, the ephasis on in9ustice as the

ain cause of war sees to be epirically inade@uate *

alpharetta chopra williams aff wake forest round1

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