A Vision on the Future of Automotive Lightweighting

Accelerating the Decarbonisationof Automotive Mobility

by Means of Lightweighting

AUT

HORS

Bax & CompanyJohanna ReilandConsultant

Laszlo BaxFounding Partner

Marcos IeridesConsultant

CO

NTR

IBUT

ORS

/ RE

VIE

WER

S

Benteler Christian Hielscher, Joern Toelle, Friedrich BohnerBatz Iratxe LopezCRF Andrea Pipino, Daniele Bassan, Daniele Pullini,

David Storer, Fabrizio Urbinati, Vito Guido LambertiniDaimler AG Sama MbangFraunhofer LBF Christoph Tamm, Thilo Bein Inspire Michael GrubenmannKIT – IPEK Markus Spadinger, Sven RevfiNovelis Jean-Francois DespoisRicardo Neil McGregorRWTH Aachen – IKA Dinesh Thirunavukkarasu, Kristian SeidelSwerea Joakim Hedegårdthyssenkrupp Steel Europe Andreas Breidenbach, Erik HilfrichVolkswagen Andreas Gebauer-Teichmann, Jens Meschke

ALLIANCE consortiumEUCAR members

A Vision on the Future of Automotive Lightweighting

Accelerating the Decarbonisation of Automotive Mobility by Means of Lightweighting

The present document summarizes the ALLIANCE roadmap on the future ofautomotive lightweighting. The full roadmap is available at lightweight-alliance.eu.

Transport is one of the most important buildingblocks for society and its growth. This isparticularly true for road transport, which is anessential pillar of European employment, tradeand economic productivity, and development.

The three catalysts, accelerated technologicaladvancement, deep societal change (e.g.environmental awareness), and effective publicpolicy currently revolutionize the way peopleand goods are moved. Using minimum energy,at minimum costs, with maximum efficiency,while guaranteeing safety and comfort is themajor task that OEMs and their partnerscurrently face.

The roundtable discussion at the ALLIANCEFuture Lightweighting Day in Aachen inSeptember 2018, showed an alignedunderstanding of this major task with itscurrent and future challenges. However, thepriorities and strategies on how to addressthose are not always aligned between thedifferent automotive lightweightingstakeholders, not excluding their future visionon lightweighting.

Therefore, this document’s objective is tooutline a common vision for Europeanautomotive lightweighting with the aim ofreducing the environmental impact of the roadtransport sector, and increasing Europe’scompetitiveness in the field. It will provide anunderstanding of the challenges and future/evolution of lightweighting in Europe.

This vision is based on input from stakeholdersof the European automotive lightweightingindustry and completed with knowledgecompiled from current market researchreports, technology studies and impactassessments.

INTRODUCTION

Expert interviews

30

Materials and other

experts

Online workshops

5Physical

workshop

1

Reports, papers & articles

FINAL VISION DOCUMENT

50

ALL

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100FUTURE LIGHWEIGHTING DAY

02

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Sama MbangALLIANCE Coordinator/ Daimler AG

ALLIANCE Affordable Lightweight Automobiles Alliance

ALLIANCE is a research and innovation project onautomotive lightweighting, co-funded by theEuropean Commission’s Horizon 2020programme and supported by EUCAR, theEuropean Council for Automotive R&D as well asEARPA, the European Automotive ResearchPartners Association.

Six leading European carmakers (Daimler,Volkswagen, Fiat-Chrysler Research Centre,Volvo, Opel and Toyota) joined forces to addressthe need for more efficient vehicles. Togetherwith four suppliers (Thyssenkrupp, Novelis, Batz,Benteler) and eight knowledge partners (Swerea,Inspire, Fraunhofer LBF, RWTH-IKA, KIT-IPEK,University of Florence, Bax & Company, Ricardo)they formed the ALLIANCE consortium.

ALLIANCE developed and demonstratedtechnologies with the primary purpose toholistically optimize fuel and energyconsumption in both conventional and electricvehicles. This resulted in several demonstratorsof real vehicle models, aiming at marketapplication by 2025.

To ensure the market viability of the developedtechnologies as well as to accelerate pre-assessment of technologies over existing designs,several support tools have been developed.

The main objectives of the ALLIANCE project were to enable a reductionof energy consumption by 10% and global warming potential (GWP) by6%, compared to a conventional vehicle by decreasing the vehicle’sweight by 21 to 33%. All of this while keeping the cost of lightweightingbelow 3€ per kilogram saved.

03

3€/kg Saved

6% GWP

31-33% Weight

~

-

CONTENT0506081012141516182022

THE BIGGER PICTUREBACKGROUND FOR POLICYMAKERSAN ONGOING SUCCESS STORYTHE LIGHTWEIGHTING MARKETPOLICY DRIVERS FOR LIGHTWEIGHTINGTRENDS SHAPING FUTURE MOBILITYIMPACT OF TRENDS ON LIGHTWEIGHTINGDILEMMAS & CONTROVERSIESEUROPEAN LIGHTWEIGHTING SWOTCHALLENGES AND INNOVATION ACTIONSFIVE KEY FINDINGS

04

ABBREVIATIONS

(C)FRPEoLEVFCEVGHGHSSICEVOEMTRL

(Carbon) Fibre-Reinforced PolymerEnd-of-LifeElectric VehicleFuel Cell Electric VehicleGreenhouse GasHigh-Strength SteelInternal Combustion Engine VehicleOriginal Equipment ManufacturerTechnology Readiness Level

The reduction of GHG emissions has been onthe global political agenda for many yearsexpressed in several of the SustainableDevelopment Goals by the UN. But theclimate deal that became known as ParisAgreement signed by 195 parties within theUnited Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change in 2016 was a clear push to goway beyond ongoing efforts. The agreementrevolved around the clear target scenario tokeep the global temperature increase below2°C compared to pre-industrial levels to avoida global climate crisis.1

When in March 2018 the European Councilrequested a long-term strategy for thereduction of GHG emissions in the attempt forcompliance, the Commission reacted with avision for climate neutrality by 2050. Therelated document outlines the deep economicand societal transformations and the closecollaboration required to achieve this vision.4

While carbon emissions are caused by allactivities of industry and society, the transportsector specifically has a major impact; itproduces a quarter of all GHG emissions.Within that large portion, the sub-segment ofroad transport accounts for more than 70%.5

Therefore, the decarbonisation plans of the EUprioritise changes in the transport sectoraiming to achieve clean, safe and connectedmobility by means of alternative transport,connected and automated driving and therollout of electric and alternative fuelvehicles.4

With the European greenhouse gas emissionsreaching 4.5 Gt CO2eq only in 2017, the EU is amain contributor to the accumulation of GHGsin the atmosphere.2,3 The European memberstates decided to sign the agreement not onlyindividually but as a supranationalconfederation, expressing the ambition tojointly establish a strategy and the necessaryregulations to execute the related action plan.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Automotive OEMs and their value chainpartners currently follow two distinctapproaches, in the attempt to deliver on thedecarbonization targets of the EuropeanCommission: (1) using alternative energysources with lower environmental impact and(2) improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles.Both benefit from lightweighting to increasethe distance travelled per unit of energy.

05

4 European Commission, Our Vision for a Clean Planet for All, 20185 European Commission, Transport emissions - A European Strategyfor low-emission mobility6 EEA, Greenhouse gas emissions from transport, 2018

1 EASAC, Decarbonisation of transport: options and challenges, 20192 IPCC, Special report - Global Warming of 1.5°C3 European Federation for Transport and Environment AISBL, How todecarbonise European transport by 2050, 2018

Figure 1: Shares of European greenhouse gas emissions in 20176

Road transport

Maritime

Aviation

Railways

Other transportation

Road Transport = 72%

Fuel combustion

Transport

Industrial processes

Agriculture

Waste Management

Share of total emissions by activity Share of transport emissions by transport mode

Transport = 25%

STEEL8

ü Approx. 60% of the vehicle’s weightü >3,500 different grades of steelü Roughly 1,000 times stronger than ironü Two predominant manufacturing/ smelting

processes: blast furnace and oxygen steelconverter (2/3 of world's crude steelproduction), and electric arc furnace process(scrap)

ü Can be recycled without loss of propertiesü Specific properties are defined by alloying

elements and process parameters

ALUMINIUM9

ü Second-most-common metal in carsü Endless recycling without loss of propertiesü 75% of the aluminium produced in the last

hundred years is still in useü The energy consumption accounts for

around 40% of manufacturing costsü Bauxite the most important raw material is

imported from e.g. Brazil & Australiaü Performance is mainly defined by alloying

elements and process parameters

PLASTICS10,11,12

ü About 50% of the vehicle’s volume butonly 10% of its weight

ü Approx. 13 different high-performanceplastics used in cars with PP, PU, PVC, ABSand PC accounting for ca. 70% of plastics

ü Performance is defined by the materialdesign (molecular structure) as well asprocess technologies and parameters

ü Embodied energy for plastic production isslightly higher than that of steel but lowerthan that of aluminium (per mass)

COMPOSITES

ü Combination of matrix and reinforcementü Cost of components manufactured (CFRP) is

up to 9 times higher compared to steelmainly due to material and energy costs.

ü Performance is defined by type, content andorientation of the reinforcement

ü More efficient structural design, as fibres canbe placed in the direction(s) where the mainload(s) occur

ü Difficult to break down/ recycle: currentpractices include downcycling or incineration

FACTS & FIGURES

07A Vision on the Future of Automotive Lightweighting

8 World Steel Association9 The Aluminium Association10 Jerin, M., Importance of Plastics in Automotive, EfficientManufacturing (industr.com), 2018

11 American Chemistry Council, Automotive Plastics12 Gutowski TG et al., The energy required to produce materials:constraints on energy-intensity improvements, parameters ofdemand, 2013

LIGHTWEIGHTING MATERIALS & STRUCTURES

Materials

PolymersMetals Other

organicinorganic

Sandwich structures

4D Structures

Composites

Hybrid Structures

Nano-materials

Structures

• Steel• Aluminium• Magnesium• Copper

• Thermoplastics• Thermosets• Elastomers

• Structured cores• Homogenous cores

• FRP• Wood• Fibres

BACKGROUND FOR POLICYMAKERS

The designs of components, assemblies andthe entire vehicle (load carrying elements andnon-load-carrying ones) are geometricallyoptimized while retaining their functionality.By 'lean' design approaches, any excessmaterial can be eliminated, and by optimizinggeometries further 'leanness' of structures canbe achieved. Novel, more flexible or tailoredmanufacturing technologies allow for locallyoptimized wall thicknesses, cross sections andbase material characteristics. Smarter designssqueeze out any superfluous material incomponents and can even re-define the waycomponents can together deliver on a certainoverall vehicle or assembly level performancerequirement.

As successful examples show, the approachescannot be separated from each other, sincelightweighting is not simply replacing onematerial with another but requires in parallelalso changes in the design serving themanufacturability according to the propertiesof the material and to improve material use.

The quest for lighter vehicles led to an.

Weight reduction in the automotive sector isan interface for multiple disciplines such asmaterial science, metallurgy, mechanicalengineering, systems engineering and designand is achieved with different approaches:

extensive research in material sciences andprocess technologies. Entire categories of suchadvanced materials such as high-strengthsteels, aluminium and composite materialshave been the results of research efforts.Significant improvements in propertiescompared to the originally used base levelmaterials have been achieved by profoundmulti-level material optimisation (from atomsto part levels) or through advancements inmanufacturing processes, which also havegiven rise to additional material solutions withsignificant light-weighting potential, such aspolymers, ceramics, and hybrids.Although there is common understanding thatcertain materials are more favourable in certainapplications than others due to specific properties,there are no standardised material-applicationmatches. Today’s application of advanced light-weight materials is rather driven by related costs.

Figure 2: Lightweight materials in specific segments7

With individual materials reaching theirperformance limits, the combination ofadvantages of various mono-materials intoone application has been gaining attention.These multi-material solutions are promisingto not only increase the performance but alsooffer the opportunity to reduce the cost oflightweighting substantially. This approach isexpected to be predominant in the future,although EoL recyclability and assembly linejoining technology are challenging.

Traditional automotive materials with highspecific weight are replaced by materials thathave lower densities while retaining therigidity and durability (and other performanceaspects) of the components. Furthermore,several materials are combined to achievebetter performance-weight-affordabilitybalances. Ideally, a higher cost can be at leastpartially offset by a lower material usage andenergy savings during the use-phase.

1 Material approach:

2 Design Approach:

7 Germany Trade & Invest, Industry Overview -The LightweightIndustry in Germany, 201806

Small Small to mid Large

CFRP

FRP Optimised Al-steel combination

Functional hybrid structures

SteelSteel/ AlAl

Multi-material Mix

Today’sMaterials

Hybridstructures

Scale

LIGHTWEIGHTING –AN ONGOING SUCCESS STORY

Lightweighting initiatives in Europe go way back

Body-in-White weight of up to 35% comparedto the reference model back in 2009 and theALLIANCE project (H2020 funded) achieved areduction of the global warming potential by24% on average across the variousdemonstrator modules.

Looking at the contribution of differentapproaches for lightweighting, in the last 30years the weight reduction stemmed almostexplicitly from the introduction of advancedmaterials in the vehicle.13 Although effortsincreased significantly the mass of the base.

Lightweighting efforts and (collaborative)research in Europe go way back. Legislationaimed at reducing vehicle emissions has drivenresearch and development of newtechnologies to unprecedented intensity.Lightweighting profited from this urgency asseveral success cases highlight. EU researchfunding supported this rapid developmentsubstantially, helping stakeholders create realimpact. Super Light Car for example, fundedunder FP6, demonstrated a reduction in the _

08

car was almost unchanged since 1980.14 Atthe same time the total vehicle weight evenincreased due to the integration ofentertainment and safety features andmeasures to reduce exhaust emissions. Thereason for this development are increasinglystricter safety regulations and consumerpreferences for more spacious and comfort-table cars which led to increased vehiclesizes.

Figure 4: Cumulative contribution to weight reduction from1975 13

The introduction of solutions in mass-produced mainstream cars is a very lengthyprocess but still many technologies have beensuccessfully implemented. At present, thebody-in-white material composition of anaverage car consists of a mix of various gradesof steel, aluminium and plastics whilecomposites have become more prevalent atthe upper end of the market.Figure 3: Evolution of vehicle mass between 1975 and

201014

13 ICCT, Lightweighting technology development and trends in U.S.passenger vehicles, 201614 J. Baron (CAR), Identifying Real World Barriers to ImplementingLightweighting Technologies and Challenges in Estimating the Increasein Costs, 2016

09A Vision on the Future of Automotive Lightweighting

Source: MIT

Veh

icle

ma

ss(k

g)

1975

2010

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Comfort /Convenience

SafetyEmissionsBase Car

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

Cum

ula

tive

cont

ribut

ion

(kg)

Source: ICCT

Front Wheel drive

Construction type

Materials

Engine cylinders

2013 20192005 2010 2012 20162014

19 M€, 37 partners

•-39% BiW Weight: Al (53%), Steel (36%), Mg (7%), Plastics (4%)

5 M€, 7 partners

•Expand potential of vehicle architecture

13 M€, 23 partners

•4 years to mass production•-35% Weight (BiW)

11 M€, 21 partners

•8-12 horizon years •- 45/50% vehicle weight

12.5 M€, 9 partners

•Novel architecture – focus on comfort, safety, efficiency

3.6 M€, 10 partners

•Hybrid material architectures•Off-the-shelf technology

11 partners

•New CF precursors•Industrialisation of composite

9 M€, 10 partners

•6 years to mass production•-31-33% vehicle weight•- 6% GWP•~ 3 €/kg saved

16 partners

•Cost effective use of PU & PP matrices•High volume production

13 partners

•Low cost production of CF from PE•Pilot plant facility

14 partners

•Low CF precursors from lignin and cellulose•New tech development

Material/ Manufacturing

Vehicle Architecture

AffordabLe LIghtweight Automobiles AlliaNCE

Automotive90%

Aviation/ Aerospace

5%

Shipping1% Wind Energy

4%

Figure 5: The lightweight materials market15 Figure 6: The automotive lightweight materials market16

North America

In the US, lightweighting is mainly driven by theCorporate Average Fuel Economy standard,general fuel price instability and the industrypush (steel and magnesium industries). Thisleads to an increasing demand for lightweightmaterials in the future. Primarily metals (HSSand aluminium) are used mostly in structuralapplications. Additive manufacturing is gainingattention for metals and engineering polymerswith important global leaders being present.17

Asia-Pacific

The region is expected to witness the fastestgrowth driven by demand due to rise in incomelevels and also by production due to a rapidlygrowing manufacturing landscape. Increasingawareness about fuel efficiency andenvironmental concerns are strong drivers.Important material suppliers with competitivesolutions are present putting players in otherregions under pressure.16,17

THE LIGHTWEIGHTING MARKETThe market for lightweight materials is drivenprimarily by the large volume of automotiveapplications. The automotive sector claimsclose to 90% of the total lightweight materialsmarket, partly due to the moderate penetrationof lightweight materials in this sector.15

Europe

As a big car manufacturing hub the region alsobecame a hub for vehicle lightweighting. TheEuropean market for lightweight vehicles is ledby developments and initiatives within the EU,driven by both technological advancementsand the regulatory framework.

Although there was consensus among theindustry that weight reduction was animportant feature for the next generation ofcars, since 2011 R&I in some areas oflightweighting was stagnating. This was rightaround the time when the electrification hypeshifted the focus of European carmakerstowards other features. Nonetheless, Europe isstill the largest market for automotivelightweight materials and suppliers areinvesting in the development of advancedmaterials driving market growth.16

15 Allied Market Research, Lightweight Materials Market, 2014-202216 Markets&Markets, Automotive Lightweight Material Market -Global Forecast to 202717 Freedonia, Lightweight Automotive Materials in North America, 2014

10

2019 2027Asia Pacific Europe North America Rest of World

USD 157.7 billion

USD 89.1 billion

CAGR7.4%

11A Vision on the Future of Automotive Lightweighting

POLICY DRIVERS FOR LIGHTWEIGHTING

Around the globe, regulations are based ondifferent strategies. While the EU bases theirregulations on emission targets, the US andChina focus on fuel economy and consumption- the differences, of course, increase thecomplexity for globally operating carmakers.Such regulations are translated into differentOEM strategies. While some carmakers areshifting more towards alternative powertrains,others may primarily focus on developinghighly energy-efficient ICEVs. Both approachesactually benefit from weight reduction, but theability of carmakers to invest themselvesheavily in this area is conditioned by the widerange of R&D investments that they need tomake in order to maintain their futurecompetitiveness.The ELV Directive and beyond

With the global material footprint rapidlygrowing and outpacing economic growth andpopulation the UN sustainable development.º

Regulations that create the boundaryconditions for lightweighting address all stepsand stakeholders in the value chain fromtargets for material extraction and processingemissions, over emission standards and safetyregulations in the use-phase to regulations onwaste and circularity at EoL.

The combination of regulatory requirementsand boundary conditions does not clearlyfavour any specific materials category, yet thepresent landscape also does not offer a holisticand fair framework to incentivise the choice forlifecycle impact optimising choices in cardesign.Vehicle emission regulations (use-phase)

Over the last decade, national and Europeanregulations on emissions during the use-phasehave become stricter step by step. The trend,furthermore, goes towards tighter regulationsat a local level (e.g. vehicle bans in cities).According to the European Commission,transport emissions should be reduced to athird of the current emissions by 2050.18

Figure 7: Evolution of EU emission regulations and the impact on the overall emissions plus regulations in the US and China18

12

CAFE standard (54.5 miles/gallon)

CAFE standard (39.5 miles/gallon)

CAFE standard (48.5 miles/gallon)

CAFC standard (6.9 litres/100 km)

CAFC standard (5.0 litres/100 km)

Ultra low emission zones (cities)

2025 2030 20502015 2020

Regional zero emission zones

National Emission Ceilings Directive (95 g/km)

Vehicle bans (e.g. diesel ban in cities)

2019

National Emission Ceilings Directive (130 gCO2/km)

Low emission zones (cities)

0

1

2

3

4

5TransportIndustrial processesWaste managementFuel combustionAgriculture

Gt o

f CO

2eq

EU: emission regulations

Provisional agreement: 15% less CO2 emissionscompared to 2021

Provisional agreement: 37.5% less CO2 emissionscompared to 2021

Long-term strategynet-zero emissions

US: fuel economy regulationsChina: fuel consumption regulations

EU e

mis

sio

n re

duc

tion

pla

nSt

rate

gie

s a

nd re

gul

atio

ns

goal 12: “Ensure sustainable consumption andproduction patterns” is increasingly receivingattention. In Europe, the policy frameworkincludes several regulations and strategiescurrently focusing mainly on the EoL.

The ELV Directive aims at making dismantling,recycling and reusing more environmentallyfriendly and minimizing the presence ofhazardous substances with clearly set targets.

Currently, the implementation and success ofthe Directive are reviewed with a stricter andmore ambitious version expected to beintroduced by 2021. Separability and ease ofdismantling are expected to be key aspectsaffecting lightweighting options. Since multi-material options are more challenging to.

comply with such regulations (dismantling andmaterial-specific recycling becomes moredifficult), few-material approaches could befavoured (probably metals). This, in turn, easesmanufacturing and assembly processes forOEMs significantly but limits the light-weighting potential and, therefore, thedecreased energy/ fuel consumption.As for the future, it is expected that extractionand processing of materials will be in the focus.This might cause shifts in material choices.Although restrictions for certain materials areat the moment not expected, there might behigher tolls for certain materials imported tothe EU though (as seen before with steel fromChina). Material-specific regulations especiallyrelated to circularity will be on a moresophisticated level in the future which requiresspecific data on environmental performancethroughout the lifecycle. Zero-emission targetsare expected to be broken down to thematerial-level increasing requirements formaterials.

18 EEA, Greenhouse gas emissions from transport, 201819 European Commission, Directive 2000/53/EC 13A Vision on the Future of Automotive Lightweighting

Figure 8: Set targets of the EoL Vehicle Directive19

Reuse & recycling Reduction of hazards

Reuse & recovery85%95%

AUTONOMOUS DRIVING In the EU more than 95% of all traffic collisionsare caused by human error.24 Among the driversfor autonomous driving (e.g. access to personaltransport, environmental protection orcomfortable driverless experience) the drasticdecrease of traffic accidents is the mostimportant one.In modern cars increasing driving assistance andfeatures such as adaptive cruise control, lanedeparture warnings or predictive ride tech are(becoming) already the standard. By 2030McKinsey projects that 15% of all vehicles soldwill be fully autonomous if all points such asbuilding the infrastructure, dealing with cybersecurity issues and developing the supportingregulatory framework are addressed.25

Reliable high-speed data transmission todevices throughout the vehicle and to devices ofother vehicles, infrastructure or road users ispreconditional with the key enabling hardwareadding weight of ca. 200kg.26

TRENDS SHAPING FUTURE MOBILITY

market for electric cars, only outpaced by China.By 2030, 55% of cars globally sold will beelectric according to PwC.22

The boom for electromobility is driven by thepromise to eliminate emissions during the use-phase entirely. In fact, although direct emissionsare prevented due to the elimination of thecombustion process, emissions related toenergy production exist. Those represent, at thecurrent EU energy mix, still a big share ofaround 43% of the total CO2 emissions of EVs.23

Although mixed opinions on the relevance oflightweighting exist, lighter vehicles will benecessary to increase the range per charge.

As new technological, societal and politicaldevelopments are in motion, the automotivemarket is in the midst of a historic change.Trends that start shaping mobility are anincreasing use of alternative powertrains andshared mobility coupled with driving autonomy.SHARED MOBILITYOn average private cars are used only 4% oftheir lifetime leading to a substantial cost perkm.20 Together with changing consumerpreferences and advancing urbanisation, thisresulted in users questioning car ownership. Thetrend is fuelled by affordable “use and pay asper requirement” services by aggregators.Ultimately this leads to a shift in the loyaltyfrom brands to car-sharing providers. Hence,carmakers are exploring ways to become fleetoperators (e.g. Daimler’s car2go or VW’sWeShare) or establish partnerships. Deloitteexpects that by 2025, globally up to 36% of allcitizens will be using shared mobility offers.21

Which type of vehicle and lightweightingconcept is required, can be locally very specificsince regulations for such shared mobilityconcepts are starting to be crafted. Car-sharingis individually regulated e.g. at city level whichleads to growth at different speeds and forms.ALTERNATIVE POWERTRAINSElectromobility has become the prevalentsolution for the reduction of transport-relatedemissions. This led several OEMs to base theirstrategy partly or entirely on electrification.Since 2016, Europe is the second biggest .

Figure 9: Connectivity as enabler for autonomous driving

Figure 10: Emissions of electric cars with EU energy mix23

14

20 J. Pöllänen, Mobility as a Service - The End of Car Ownership, 201921 Deloitte Consulting, The Future of the Automotive Value22 PwC, Five trends transforming the automotive industry, 2017-201823 ICCT, European vehicle market statistics – Pocketbook 2018/2019

24 EP, Self-driving cars in the EU: from science fiction to reality, 201925 McKinsey&Company, Automotive revolution - perspective towards203026 3M, The promise of lightweighting, 2018

V2V

V2X

V2I

Vehicle to VehicleVehicle to Everything

Vehicle to Infrastructure

Battery manufacturingOther manufacturing

Fuel/ electricity production

129 g/km

20172030

88 g/km

35

38

56

21

38

29

258 g/km

20174746

165

Tailpipe (real-world driving)

ICEVEV EV

AUTONOMOUS DRIVING ALTERNATIVE POWERTRAINSSHARED MOBILITYü A shift in material choices for

lightweighting is expected asshared vehicles have a muchhigher utilization leading to ahigher use-phase impact onthe overall lifecycle carbonfoot-print. Certain solutionswould have a higher potentialto lower the carbon footprintin a long lifecycle even thoughtheir production emissions arehigher.

ü Certain lightweight materialsbecome more attractive andothers economically less viableas production volumes change.Changing boundary conditions(e.g. urbanization) andconsumer preferences, likelywill change productionvolumes.

ü The development of light-weight technologies might beaccelerated since new vehicleconcepts that meet therequirements of users andoperators for shared mobilitymust be developed. Thiscreates opportunities torethink the design andintegrate lightweighting at anearly stage.

ü Weight reduction will becomemore important with changingpayload requirements (e.g.shuttles).

ü Lightweighting in EVs may beaccelerated since batterymanufacturing for EVs has ahigh CO2 impact increasing theurgency to balance theseemissions out in other phases.

ü The need for lighter cars couldbe accelerated due to EVs ad-ding more requirements tosafety which increases weight,e.g. the battery (EVs) or the H2storage tanks (FCEVs) needprotection during a crash. It willbe important to maintain themass of the vehicle under alimit so users can drive itwithout requiring a differenttype of license.

ü Lighter cars will reduce theenergy consumption and,there-fore, increase the drivingrange which ultimately leads toreduced operating costs in theuse phase.

ü The “urgency” to make vehiclesmore efficient, may bereduced due to energyregeneration from braking inEVs (temporary effect and willjust apply for short-distances).

ü Lightweighting will be lessimportant for the purpose ofreducing emissions in the use-phase with an increase inrenewable energy sources (far-future and territory-specific).

ü R&D in advanced materials willbe fuelled by the urgency todevelop multifunctionalcomponents for informationand entertainment systems.

ü An increase in materials withlower structural properties isexpected due to a decreasingneed for structural parts invehicles in a scenario whereautonomous vehicles are themajority.

ü Lightweighting might beaffected by changes in thevehicle architecture due tochanging crash-test require-ments as autonomous drivingpromises absolute compliancewith speed limits. This mightlead to predominantly shortercars due to a reducedcrumpling zone.

ü Low-emission lightweightmaterials will be important tocompensate for high emissionsin the use-phase. Theoperation of cameras,guidance systems and sensorsin every vehicle is required.Thus, the amount of servercapacity and activity globallywill drastically increase. Withdiesel generators typicallybacking up the server main-frames, the emission output isexpected to be immense.

IMPACT OF TRENDS ON LIGHTWEIGHTING

15A Vision on the Future of Automotive Lightweighting

DILEMMAS AND CONTROVERSIES AROUND LIGHTWEIGHTING

Multi-materials versus ease of recycling

Lightweighting often suggests a multi-material approach to decrease weight andconsequently to offer optimum GWPemission reductions during the use-phase.Yet, multi-materials solutions may not beoptimal in terms of circularity, since mixedmaterial- streams create challenges at EoL.Vehicle configurations with only a fewmaterials on the other hand offerfavourable end-of-life options/ circularityperformance, yet might be limited inreducing the weight. A certain trade-offrelated to the ELV Directive and NationalEmissions Ceiling Directive seems withcurrent technologies unavoidable.

New material groups add complexity

There is confusion on biomaterials amongthe industry. The term is often associatedwith bio-based materials although it ismuch broader combining all materialsbased on biomass or biodegradable - orboth.The lifecycle performance of bio-materials isstill under considerable debate due to lackof experimental data. Bio-based materialshave lower non-renewable energy use andGHG emissions, yet increased land-use(translates also in emissions). Anotherconsideration is whether biodegradation atEoL is more favourable than keepingmaterials in the technical cycle. A holisticevaluation of all materials is required toallow for sustainable material choices.

16

27 European Bioplastics, Fact Sheet: What are bioplastics?, 2016

Figure 12: Classification of biomaterials27

Bio-based

Fossil-based

Non

-bio

degr

adab

le Biodegradable

Biomaterials Biomaterials

Biomaterials

e.g. PLA, PHA

e.g. PBAT, PCL

e.g. PE, PET, PA

e.g. PE, PET, PP

Figure 11: The controversy between the EU emission andcircularity targets

Multi-material approach

offering optimum GHG emission reductions

Few-materials approachoffering favourable EoL

options/ circularity performance

vs.

End-of-Life Vehicles Directive

National Emissions Ceilings DirectiveA drive towards

lighter carsA drive towards recyclable cars

Consumer preference for spacious cars

Although lightweighting efforts increasedsignificantly, the average mass of cars didnot de-crease. This is due to the increasingsizes of vehicles, driven by consumerpreferences. Safety, fuel economy and thebrand are often named as important criteriafor buyers, yet vehicle size and comfort areespecially in the US and in the Europeanmarket a determining factor. In the EU, SUVswere the fastest-growing segment in the last10 years accounting for about 35% of thevehicles on European roads. In comparison,the SUV penetration in the US market and inAsia-Pacific is 45% and 27% respectively. Atthe same time the share of mini and smallcars continues to decrease.29, 30

Heavier cars are safer than lighter ones

Although advancements in safetymeasures made small cars safer than ever,physics gives heavier cars an inherentadvantage in crash situations and inparticular in frontal crashes since a heaviercar would push the lighter car backwardsreducing the force on the occupants in thevehicle. A study carried out by theInsurance Institute for Highway Safety(IIHS) found that very large SUVs had thelowest fatality rate in 2015 compared to allother vehicle types while the highest wasfound in mini cars.28

17A Vision on the Future of Automotive Lightweighting

28 IIHS, Fatality Facts 2017 – Passenger vehicle occupants29 ACEA, The Automobile Industry Pocket Guide 2019-202030 F. Munoz (Jato), Global SUV boom continues in 2018 butgrowth moderates, 2019

0

15

30

45

60

75

MiniSm

all

Midsize

Large

Very larg

eSm

all

Midsize

Large

Very larg

e

Dea

ths p

er m

illion

veh

icle

s

Figure 13: Driver deaths per million registered vehicles 1-3years old28

0

4

8

12

16

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

New

regi

stra

tions

(milli

on)

Small

Lower medium

Upper medium

SUV

LuxuryMPV

35%

8%3%7%

19%

29%

Figure 14: New registrations of passenger vehicles in the EU(million) 2008 - 201829

S

W

O

T

ü High level of expertise on advanced materials/structures and processing technologies

ü Very deep understanding of the fundamentalsü European players are very good at modelling

and simulation.ü Advanced recycling landscape

ü The inability to develop acceptablesustainable end-of-life routes and relatedprocess technologies poses a threat for theapplication of (certain) lightweighttechnologies.

ü The strict separation of fundamental and ap-plied research and the lacking structure forresearch transfer slow the innovation processdown.

ü The EU lacks relevant multidisciplinaryengineering education programs.

ü Research focuses on hyped technologies(excluding potentially better solutions).

ü Open Innovation stops usually at TRL 6/7 dueto competitiveness reasons.

ü Increasing research in optimization of multi-parameter design systems

ü The available infrastructure and openinnovation offer opportunities to becomeglobal leader in affordable lightweighttechnologies, and circular economy.

ü New vehicle configurations require newcomponents creating the opportunity todesign with lightweighting in mind.

EUROPEAN LIGHTWEIGHTING

18

€

ü EU landscape of highly specialized SMEsoffering specialized solutions.

ü Lightweighting technologies are available likenowhere around the globe.

ü Players in Europe provide the majority ofadvanced steels.

ü Regulations (e.g. emissions) are pushing fornovel (material) technologies.

ü Slow regulation and legislation processeswithin the EU

ü Regulations on safety, emissions,sustainability and circularity createuncertainties.

ü Environmental impacts outside the EU arenot considered in regulations (e.g. materialsourcing impacts).

ü Creating competitive value through LCA-based regulations.

ü Industrial point of view on IP hinders the fastuptake of promising solutions.

ü Lacking investment: lightweighting requiresnew architectures and hence new productionplants. Uncertainty about future mobility isfreezing OEM investments.

ü Lack of communication among stakeholderslead to unclarities about requirements.

ü Complications for non-EU entities to dobusiness with EU entities slows down R&I.

ü Lightweighting is not a priority of Europeancarmakers as the market is not asking for it.

ü The EU relies on non-EU countries for rawmaterials especially for alloying elements.

ü Local players in the export markets showgrowing technological expertise and sup-pliers are being acquired by non-EU players.

ü The sector faces a shortage of skilled humanresources due to a high employee turnoverand increasing need for innovative solutions.

ü Emerging business models make more ex-pensive lightweighting technologies viable.

ü Shared mobility concepts create newbusiness cases for lightweighting.

ü The new era of mobility offers theopportunity for closer collaboration e.g.design approaches with common componentinterfaces (interchangeable parts increasingcircularity).

19A Vision on the Future of Automotive Lightweighting

CHALLENGES & INNOVATION ACTIONS

Lightweighting grew into more mature phasesdue to many breakthrough advancements inmaterial and process technologies as well as indesign approaches as seen in the last decades.Yet, the question remains why many of suchinnovations are still nowhere to be found inmainstream cars.

Currently, material qualification stretches overseveral years (up to 9 years). The long voyagefrom R&D results to mass-produced car designsis due to the need to manage risks (e.g.robustness of supply chain), ensure viability(compatibility with other materials, skill-set ofworkforce) and safety and maintainaffordability, business viability and growth. Thisis also to the lack of understanding of systemsas a whole.

The lack of understanding on how new mobilityconcepts, evolving legislation and societalchanges will shape the requirements for futurevehicle architectures and ultimately for thematerials is fuelling the reluctance to invest incertain technologies due to increasedcomplexity to understand risks fully. E.g. by thetime a material is ready for introduction therequirements could have changed.

The reduction of the overall environmentalimpact e.g. raw material extraction, energy use,process emissions or recyclability at EoLchallenges several material technologies. Asthe industry leans more towards multi-materialdesigns and multifunctionality (e.g. theintegration of haptic, optic, acoustic or sensingfunctions), this challenge is even increasing asEoL options are either not satisfying or not wellexplored at this stage.

Looking at the overall regulatory framework,sustainability strategies and regulations arecomplex. While some favour certain materials/practices, others prioritize the opposite. This isalso due to the lack of data on the lifecycleimpact of technologies which can lead toerroneous conclusions or guestimates.

Among the many challenges faced withinautomotive lightweighting three main pointshave been highlighted in the discussions withvalue chain players. Defined innovation actionsaddress the potential that is still unused andthe developments and research still to be donerelated to the strengths and weaknesses of theEuropean lightweighting scene focusing onthese main challenges:

Affordability remains an issue for manylightweighting solutions. The highestperforming lightweight solutions suffer fromhigh raw material prices (alloying elements,carbon fibres), high manufacturing costs(tooling, equipment, machinery, labour-intensive processes) and long cycle times(process and delay times) leading to overallhigher costs in comparison to traditionalsolutions preventing the introduction ofmaterials in mass vehicle production.

Additionally, as the industry is challenged bynew mobility trends the integration ofadditional functions is an important focus inR&D. Yet, currently apart from insufficientperformance, multifunctionality is limited bytoo high additional costs for mass-marketapplications.

The correlation between fuel or energyconsumption and a vehicle’s weight creates aneconomic benefit for the customer. At the sametime, the lightweighting acceptance (what thecustomer is willing to pay for it) is not in linewhich leads to the fact that the costs arecarried by OEMs and suppliers. This makes itincreasingly difficult to make the business casefor lightweighting.

20

Time for material qualificationand innovation mainstreaming

Sustainability and materialcircularity

Affordability of lightweightingsolutions (cost)

21A Vision on the Future of Automotive Lightweighting

Standardise and harmonise

approaches and definition of

boundary conditions

Develop standardised concepts for the introduction of secondary materials

Increase the level of

automation of processes

Optimize formulations of

thermoplastic adhesives for

structural joining

Introduce agile

production lines

Impl

emen

t aut

omat

ed

wor

kflo

ws m

akin

g th

e us

e of

to

ols m

ore

effic

ient

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r com

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mon

inte

rface

s to

enab

le

seam

less

mod

el tr

ansfe

r

betw

een

tool

s

Further improve models

representation of physical

reality

Develop manufacturing

technologies (e.g. additive

manufacturing)

Ensure consistent volumes/

clean waste streams (orga-

nised reverse supply chain)

Improve the granularity of

cost categories (adding

manufacturing processes)

Develop open-access

databases that protect

sensitive data.

New business models (couple

return-to-producer principle

with closed-loop recycling)

Better understand the

potential of blockchain for

reliable data collection

Invest in research to ex-ploreoptimal application for

lightweighting technologies

Improve m

aterials e.g.

develop thermoset polym

ers

with reversible cross-linksIn

nova

te m

anuf

actu

ring/

finish

ing p

roce

sses

to co

unte

r-

bala

nce

varia

ble

prop

ertie

s

Adapt p

aramete

rs to

reduce

drying/ h

ardening t

ime to

reduce cy

cle tim

es) Develop objective, data-

driven tools with increased

level of automationFu

lly d

evel

op th

e m

anuf

actu

ring

proc

ess f

or

larg

e sc

ale

prod

uctio

n

Develop ca

lculatio

n

models to re

ach high

er

accuracy

and relia

bility

Standardization of testing requirements based

on material type

Create and implement

common design principles and methodologies

Ensure that EoL options

are clearly defined during

the design stage

FIVE KEY FINDINGSThe future of lightweighting is moving

from improving the performance of a singlematerial, to gaining a better understanding ofhow multiple materials can be combined in asingle component.Furthermore, combining functionalities isanother strategy to reduce the number ofcomponents and an enabler for automatedand connected mobility. This will requirefurther development and combination ofprocessing technologies which, besidesenabling multi-material and multifunctionalstructures, will also allow for reduced cost andcycle times, and higher resource efficiency.

Lightweighting efforts need to pursue areduction of overall lifecycle emissions, not justto make cars lighter which only affects the use-phase in the lifecycle.Materials that offer strong light weightingbenefits may have an unfavourable emissionfootprint in their raw material extraction,material processing or EoL process. Only thecombined holistic lifecycle impact assessmentcan offer balanced insights into the relativebenefits of a specific materials combination ordesign solution. Full lifecycle assessments inearly development stages will need to becomethe standard to support the decision-makingprocess for the best lightweighting solutionbacked by real numbers. This requires a newlevel of data quantity and quality (e.g. break-even calculation for GHG emissions requirereliable data from all phases of a vehicle).Databases should be open-access and the datacollection process should follow standardisedmethodologies.

Lightweighting continues to offer manybenefits but must be affordable to reachadoption in mass-produced cars especially asefforts expand beyond the BiW; focusing nowon interiors and auxiliary systems.Mainstreaming novel lightweighting solutionsnecessarily takes a long time, with associatedrisks and costs carried by carmakers/ suppliersover several years. Customers show a lowwillingness to pay for lightweighting due to thelack of awareness of the benefits beyondemission reduction (e.g. better drivingperformance and crash properties) whichusually limits efforts. Therefore, substantialefforts that cover more than just technologyare required to address affordability.

As the boundary conditions such asregulations, crash requirements and materialavailability/ scarcity constantly evolve,lightweighting itself will continue to evolve.Dealing with the consequences that can beexpected as a result of these ongoing changesrequires collaboration and aligned approachesamong OEMs and the entire value chain. Themultidisciplinary character of lightweightingsuggests also combination of technological,market and ecosystem innovation. A coherentregulatory framework among member stateswill be securing a strong automotive valuechain that operates in a global context.

EU funding has improved the impact ofvery substantial value chain player R&D&Iinvestments creating real impact.Lightweighting breakthroughs have beenachieved mainly through the collaboration ofseveral stakeholders of the value chain – someeven competing, as success cases from past EUresearch projects show. Such initiatives shouldbe in the focus to address future challengesespecially in higher TRL levels as cooperationusually stops due to competitiveness reasons.The collaboration among stakeholders will onlybecome more important as lightweighting andthe challenges become more complex.Supported by effective EU funding, light-weighting in Europe can continue tosubstantially contribute to a green andcompetitive automotive sector.

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Today, Automotive lightweighting is in many ways not limited by technology, but by

a lack of affordability, the necessity to avoid any safety and business risk and by the lack of consumer

awareness of its benefits.

23A Vision on the Future of Automotive Lightweighting

Credits:

All Images: ShutterstockDesign, Layout, Illustrations: Bax & CompanyAll graphs and figures elaborated by Bax & Company

2019

This project has received funding from the EuropeanUnion’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement No 723893

lightweight-alliance.eu