ali hashemi sohi -avima10-mater thesis-new aero engine concepts1
TRANSCRIPT
New Aero-Engine Conpets- Economic and Environmental Analysis -
Prepared by: Ali Hashemi Sohi
Assessed by:Prof. Dr. rer.pol. Thomas BiermannDr.-Ing. Verena Ehrler
Master of Aviation Management
Technical Developments
Economic Aspects
Environmental Aspects
Comparison of engines
Conclusion and recommendation
$
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Outlines
Technical Developments
Economic Aspects
Environmental Aspects
Comparison of engines
Conclusion and recommendation
$
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Technical Improvement
Achievements Challenges
Bypass ratio • Fuel-efficiency• Lower jet noise
• Increasing drag• Increasing weight
TET • Fuel-efficiency • Increasing Nox emission• Thermal stress on blades (decreasing TOW)
OPR • Fuel-efficiency • Increasing mechanical stress (decreasing TOW)
Material • Lower weight• Realizing higher TET
• Supplying• Maintenance• Manufacturing and development costs
Fan diameter • Fuel-efficieny (by increasing of bypass ratio)
• Higher weight• Mechanical stresses
Compressor (BLISK)
• Higher pressure ratio per stage
• Maintenance • Bird strike reliability
Combustor • Low emission • Trade-off bw. NOx & UHC/CO
Technical Developments
Economic Aspects
Environmental Aspects
Comparison of engines
Conclusion and recommendation
$
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Direct Operating Costs of Airlines
A/C Capital21%
A/C Main-tenance
11%
Crew12%
Other30%
Engine DOC26%
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Engine‘s related DOC
Eng. capital cost34%
Fuel Cost35%
Eng. Maintenance31%
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Engine‘s related DOC
31%
22%
30%
8%
3% 4% 2%Lufthansa DOC in 2012
Fuel Cost• Largest share in DOC of airline (30%-
35%)
Maintenance cost• Nearly doubled in 12 years;
forecasted to increase by 30% until 2022
• Eng. Maintenance costs : 46% of total maintenance costs
Acquisition costs• Fix price comprises of development,
design and manufacturing costs• Continue after EIS of engine untill
disposal
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20172022
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
30.727.425.626.927.625.323.926.327.224.325.327.1
31.836.8
11.510.410.510.110.713.517.1
18.818.518
21.622.4
27.7
31.646.2%
Other Maintenance (Line, Components and HVM& Mod.)Engine Maintenance% Engine Maintenace Cost
in $
mill
ion
Technical Developments
Economic Aspects
Environmental Aspects
Comparison of engines
Conclusion and recommendation
$
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Environmental Aspects
Point of concern for 2 groups:1. Environmental orginazations and public mind:
Growing share of producing NOx and other gaseous emissions Growing share of producing of CO2 emissions Growing noise footprint around vicinity of airports and the
number of people exposed to aircraft noise
2. Airlines
Direct impact on DOC through landing charges and fees for both noise and emissions
Increasing number of airports with stringent noise and emissions standards
Regarding noise emissions: restrications for night-movements
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Environmental Aspects, NOx
NOx • Contribute in producing of Ozone in vicinity of
airport• Forecasts: Annual growth with rate of 3.6% to
6.2 % up to 2036
CO2• major GHG pollutant from fuel burning
• Forecasts: Annual growth with rate of 2.9% to 3.4% up to 2050
Noise• Affects population arround vicinity of airports• Forecasts: in 2050 more 26.6 mil. to 40 mil.
people will be affected by aircraft‘s noise
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Environmental Aspects, Standards
ICAO Annex 16: standard for max allowable noise as well as pollutant emission
Increasing NOx standards during meetings of CAEP
Intensifying noise standards 15 EPNdB
10 EPNdB
Technical Developments
Economic Aspects
Environmental Aspects
Comparison of engines
Conclusion and recommendation
$
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Trent 1000 vs. Genx-1B for B787
Rolls Royce Trent 1000-C2 IP P/O Better HPC perfromnace Light Ti-Hollow blades; swept form
(FOD resistance) & Low rotational speed (Lower fan noise)
Fuel consumption improvement in 3 packages (A,B and C)
GE Genx-1B64/P1 Most stricking technologies are
inherited from GE90Proven technologies
Composite fan blades and case, claimed to be virtually maintenance free
TAPS combustor as for GE90
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Trent 1000 vs. Genx-1B for B787
R.R. Trent 1000-C2 GE GEnx-1B64/P1
No. of Shafts: 3 2
Bypass ratio: 10-11 9
OPR: 50 45Maximum thrust
(kN): 334.7 298
Dry weight (kg): 5938 6147
Fan Diameter (m): 2.84 2.82
No. of fan blades 20 18
Length (m): 4.769 4.950
Core Configuration: 1 Fan/ 8 IPC/ 6 HPC/ 1 HPT/ 1
IPT/ 6 LPT1 Fan/ 4 LPC/ 10 HPC/ 2
HPT/ 7 LPT
Entry into Service 2011 2011
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Geared Turbofan (GTF) concepts, Why? Restrictions for higher bypass ratio Fan is directly connected through LP-Shaft to LPT:
• By rotating at same rotational speed→ further increment of diameter leads to additional mechanical stresses on blades
• To decrease the rotational speed of fan→LPT stages should be increased → additional weight and cost
Solution of P&W: Decoupling of direct connection of fan and LPT through a reduction
gearbox, allows low rotational speed of fan and higher speed for LPT stages;
• → Increment of fan diameter, higher bypass ratio, higher propulsive eff. and lower fuel consumption
• → Reduction of fan noise due to low rotating fan blades• → Reduction No. of LPT stages and blades, lower weight and
cost
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PW1100G-JM vs. CFM Leap-1A for A320neo Pratt & Whitney PW1100G-JM
Gearbox system High bypass ratio Less LPT and LPC stages Hyprid Metal fan blades
CFM International Leap-1A Most stricking technologies are
inherited from GE90Proven technologies
Composite fan blades and case, claimed to be virtually maintenance free
TAPS combustor as for GE90
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PW1100G-JM vs. CFM Leap-1A for A320neo
PW1100G-JM CFM Leap-1A
No. of Shafts: 2 2
Bypass ratio: 12 11
OPR: - 50Maximum thrust
(kN): 116.7 109-146
Dry weight (kg): - -
Fan Diameter (m): 2.05 1.98
No. of fan blades 18 18
Length (m): - -
Core Configuration: 1 Fan/ 1Gearbox / 3 LPC/ 8
HPC/ 2 HPT/ 3 LPT1 Fan/ 3 LPC/ 10 HPC/ 2
HPT/ 7 LPT
Entry into Service 2011 2011
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Future Concepts
Counter Rotating Propfan (CRPF) Ultra-High Bypass ratio: 40
Counter Rotating Turbofan (CRTF)
Moderate bypass ratio: 20 Solution for noise problem of CRPF
Intercooled recuperative engine (IRA-GTF)
Decreasing of fuel consumption through intecooler and recuperator
• More than one engine‘s option → Unavoidable competetive environment among manufacturers
• Trade-off between technical parameters → engine‘s options with different features
• The trend is continuing today
• Dramatically development of technical specificationas of new engines → The same potential for addressing requirements of today‘s and near future‘s demands
• Development of technical parameters and components: have reached nearly its limits
• Investigate on developing novel technologies as well as future engine concepts
• A considerable competition among manufacturers to introduce future concepts
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Introduction
• 3 case studies: to evaluate effect of technical development of new ATF on each economic and environmental factor:
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Case Studies
Designation Engines / Concepts
Case study 1 GEnx-1B64/P1 vs. Trent 1000-C2; wide-body market
Case study 2 PW1100G-JM vs. CFM Leap-1A, narrow-body market
Case study 3 CRPF, CRTF and IRA-GTF; future concepts
Factors comprise acquisition cost:
• Design and developments to manufacturing and also until disposal
• Engine‘s configuration (No. Of components, stages,...)
• Applying of novel technologies (Costs of researches, prototyping and tests)
• After sale services
Actual price far less than published list prices; offeing huge amount of discounts to customers
• Capturing of the market
• To include after sales supports and maintenance services20/09/2013 New Aero-Engine Concepts; Economic and Environmental Analysis 22
Acquisition cost
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Acquisition Cost, C.S.1
Genx-1B64 Trent 1000
Development costs
• Technologies inherited from GE90
• Technologies inherited from previous Trent models
Novel technologies • Composite fan case • No significant novel
technology
Manufatuting costs
• Composite fan blades and case• 2 stages HPC and 1 stage LPT
more than Trent 1000
• 3 shafts configuration• Lighter and smaller than
GEnx-1B
List prices • $22.5 million • $20 million
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Acquisition Cost, C.S.2
PW1100G CFM Leap-1A
Development costs
• Huge investments for research programs (20 years)
• Most of Technologies inherited from GE90
• Applying CMC and TiAl• Developing of care with very
high OPRNovel
technologies • GTF • Composite fan case
Manufatuting costs
• Gearbox; but not too much• Reducing of 6 stages and
1800 blades relative to CFM
• 6 stages and about 1800 blades more relative to PW1100G
List prices • No information • $12.8 million
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Acquisition Cost, C.S.3
CRPF CRTF IRA-GTF
Development costs
• Integrating on aircraft
• Counter rotating system (Pusher)
• Result of research programs as VITAL
• Developing of care with very high OPR
• Research Program NEWAC
Manufatuting costs
• Counter rotaing propeller
• Installing in trubine section (Pusher)
• Two counter rotating packages
• Manufacturing and Integrating of IC and Recuperator
• Piping system • 3-shafts
configuration
Fuel cost contitutes about one third f airline‘s DOC
Fuel price has the same trend as crude oil price
Regarding forecasts for fuel price, fuel- efficiency can be the major concern of engine manufacturer and airlines
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Fuel-Efficiency
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 204020406080
100120140160180200220240260
High Oil Price Low Oil Price Reference
$/Ba
rrel
2011
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Fuel-Efficiency, C.S.1
Genx-1B64 Trent 1000
Claim • 15% less than CF6-80E • 13%-14% less than Trent 700
Specification • Composite fan case and blades • 2 fan blades less than trent
• Light• Compact• Higher OPR• Higher bypass
Improvemnet packages • Package I and II (PIP I and II) • Package A, B and C
• Trent 1000-Ten
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Fuel-Efficiency, C.S.2
PW1100G CFM Leap-1A
Claim • 15% less than previous A320‘s engines: IAE V2500 and CFM56
Specification
• Higher bypass ratio than CFM• Lower weight due to 6 less
stages and 1800 less blades (LPT&LPC)
• 2 less HPC stages (all BLISK)
• Higher OPR• Composite fan case and
blades• 5 of 10 HPS stages: BLISK
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Fuel-Efficiency, C.S.3
CRPF CRTF IRA-GTF
Claim• 25% less relative
to ACARE reference*
• 17% less relative to ACARE reference
20% less relative to ACARE reference
Specification
• Ultra-high bypass ratio
• Moderate bypass ratio
• Using intercooler and recuperator to reduce amounf of fuel burning in Combustor
* ACARE Reference: CFM56 and IAE V2500
Engine maintenance cost constitutes largest maintenance cost among others; 46%
Contitutes about one third of engine‘s related DOC
Factors to consider by comparing:
Configuration of engine, especially core
Maintenance programs and after sale supports
Similarity in maintenance principles with other engines in fleet
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Maintenance cost
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Maintenance cost, C.S.1
Genx-1B64 Trent 1000
Configuration
• 2 shafts configuration• Maintenance free fan blades • Less corresion in composite fan case • 3 stages BLISK• Integrated Diagnostic Technology (ECM)
• 3 shafts configuration• 1 stage LPT and 2 stage HPC
less than Genx• 3 stages BLISK• Data Systems and Solutions (ECM)
After sale support
programs
• OnPointSM Diagnostics • TRUEngine™, helps to enhance
marketability and asset valuation of their engine
• TotalCare®
Synergy in maintenance
principles
• Split engine into cor and fan• Synergy with Genx-2B, GE90 and
CFM Leap X• With other Trent models
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Maintenance cost, C.S.2
PW1100G CFM Leap-1A
Configuration
• Less stages and blades (LPC and LPT and HPC)
• 8 stages BLISK• Gerabox maintenance
• Core operates at higher temperature and pressure than PW1100
• Composite fan blades and case: maintenance free
After sale support
programs• PureSolution • OnPointSM Diagnostics
Synergy in maintenance
principles
• Some common maintenance principles with turboprops regarding gearbox
• Best choice for fllet with CFM56, GE90 and GEnx
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Maintenance cost, C.S.3
CRPF CRTF IRA-GTF
Configuration
• Counter rotating system
• Additional load on turbine section by pusher
• Pitch mechnism of each blade
• Two counter rotating sections
• Complex system with intercooler, recuperator and gearbox
Stringent standards, especially regrading NOx emission
Reducing of CO2 emission is directly proportional to reduction of fuel consumption
For NOx, comparisons are made based on margin to CAEP stabdards especially the current CAEP/6
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Reducing of emissions
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Reducing of emissions, C.S.1
Genx-1B64 Trent 1000
NOx• 46% below CAEP/6*• 35.19 g/kN • 25% below CAEP/6
• 65.48 g/kN
CO2• Higher CO2 emisions, regarding
(probable) higher fuel consumption
• 12% less CO2 emissions than Trent 800
• Less fuel consumption = Less CO2 than GEnx
*According to ICAO Emissions Databank
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Reducing of emissions, C.S.2
PW1100G CFM Leap-1A
NOx • 55% below CAEP/6• Amount of emitted Nox cannot
be calculated, as OPR of PW1000Gs is not especified
• 50% below CAEP/6• NOx emission will be less than 40
g/kN.
CO2 • Regarding reducing of fuel consumption by 15%, the same amount can be considered for CO2 of both engines
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Reducing of emissions, C.S.3
NOx reduction:
IRA-GTF : 52% relative to CAEP/6
No information for other concepts
CO2 reduction:
Base on comparison for fuel efficiency, CRPF concept achieves highest degree of
CO2 reduction. IRA concept and CRTF will be in next places.
Stringent standards, especially in most busiest aiports (As Heathrow)
Intensified standards: new standard will impose noise margine of -10 to -12 EPNdB relative to Ch.4 of ICAO
Intensified airport‘s standards as well as increasing charges
Lunching new standards as QC, for impose more restriction on night-movements
Factors for comparing of engines and concepts:
Technologies to reduce noise emission
Claims regarding to margin to Ch.4 or ACARE reference
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Reducing of Noise
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Reducing of noise, C.S.1
Genx-1B64 Trent 1000
Technology• Swept fom fan blade• Composite baldes• Chevron nozzle
• Swept fom fan blade• Chevron nozzle
Margin to Ch.4 • 14.8 dB margin to Chapter 4 • about 9dB margin to Chapter 4
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Reducing of noise, C.S.2
PW1100G CFM Leap-1A
Technology • Low speed fan • Composite fan blades
Margin to Ch.4 20EPNdB margin to chapter 4 15EPNdB margin to chapter 4
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Reducing of noise, C.S.3
CRPF: highest noise emissions among other concepts, due to large diameter of fan
However, by a test conducted by NASA: 10-13 dB margin to Ch.4 is announced
CRTF is claimed to have 20-22EPNdB cumulative noise reduction relative to ACARE reference.
IRA-GTF concept will has -20 to -30dB margin relative to Chapter 4
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Result of comparison, C.S.1
GEnx-1B64: Reducing of maintenance cost as well as noise and pollutant emissions
Trent 1000-C2: Reducing of acquisition and fuel costs
Acquisition Cost
Fuel-Effeciency
Maintenance costEmissions Reduction
Noise Reduction
0
1
2
3
4
5
Genx-1B Trent 1000-C2
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Result of comparison, C.S.2
PW1100G: Reducing of maintenance and fuel costs as well as noise emission CFM Leap-1A: the same potential for Reducing of emissions and acquisition
cost as by PW1100G Fleet commonality of CFM Leap-1A with CFM56, could change the result for
maintenance cost
Acquisition Cost
Fuel-Effeciency
Maintenance costEmissions Reduction
Noise Reduction
0
5
CFM Leap-1A PW1100G-JM
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Result of comparison, C.S.3
CRPF: Reducing fuel cost IRA-GTF: Reducing of noise and pollutant emissions, nearly the same potential
for fuel-efficiency as CRPF CRTF: Less maintenance costs among the others; Moderate concept in other
aspects
Acquisition Cost
Fuel-Effeciency
Maintenance costEmissions Reduction
Noise Reduction
0
5
CRPF CRTF IRA-GTF
Technical Developments
Economic Aspects
Environmental Aspects
Comparison of engines
Conclusion and recommendation
$
Oil price will rocket to more than $200 in next 30 years
• fuel-efficiency could be the paramount criterion and first priority for most airlines to select an engine, then: Trent 1000 for B787 and PW1100G for A320neo could be the best decision
Oil price will take a decreasing trend in next 30 years, then
1. For major airlines that operate flight to large airports and with stringent noise standards: Genx-1B for B787 and PW1100G for A320neo could be the best decision
2. For airlines (small one or LCCs) that operate flights with very high frequency of landing/take-off cycle, down-stream costs regarding maintenance will affect their choice; then: Genx-1B for B787 and PW1100G for A320neo could be the best decision
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Conclusion, ATF engines
Mid- and Long-term solution:• IRA-GTF and CRPF will be the best option, for increasing fuel price • IRA-GTF hast the best potential to reduce noise and NOx level• Both CRPF anf IRA-GTF are based on complex systems• Integrating and noise problem for CRPF• Too late EIS as well as highest maintenance costs are the challenges for
IRA-GTF• Deciding about long-term solution: depends on rate of technology
development in CRPFand IRA-GTF to solve hese problems Short-term solution• CRTF, a moderate concept in all aspect and could be the best short-
term option for applying in civil aviation
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Conclusion, Future concepts
In addition to technical features, non-technical factors also affect priority list of airlines for selecting of an engine:
1. Fleet commonality 2. commonality regarding maintenance costs as well as degree of
technical synergy between new and currently in fleet existing engines
3. airline’s past and current cooperation with engine manufacturer
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Conclusion (Non-technical factors)
Wide-body market:
• For airlines with GE CF6, GE90 or Genx-2B , GEnx-1B will be the best option
• For airlines with Trent 700, Trent 1000 is the best decision
Narrow-body marekt: the choice is totally depends on the engine that power their
A320 fleet• CFM Leap-1A best choice for airlines with CFM56-5B or-7B models as well as
with GEnx and GE90
• PW1100G best selection for airlines operates turboprop aircrafts with P&W engines, as ATR 74, or if their fleet contains aircrafts as B747 and B767 with P&W engine can be the right decision.
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Conclusion (Non-technical factors)
1. Revise the information with considering GEnx with PIPII and Trent 1000-Ten and after both CFM Leap and PW1100G will have been entered into market
2. Compare technological development of new Trent XWB and GE9X with GEnx and Trent 1000 and effect of such technological leap on economic and environmental aspects
3. Include non-technical factors; to what extend considering of such factors can diminish the effect of technological developments by decision for selecting an engine
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Recommendations
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Sources
Pictures: • http://www.fargeo.com/images/blog/airplane-noise-over-home.jpg
• http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ain-air-transport-perspective/2012-10-22/cfm-gears-leap-production
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fan_blades_and_inlet_guide_vanes_of_GEnx-2B.jpg
• http://events.aviationweek.com/html/meu12/C2%20DALE_CARLSON.pdf
• http://www.epower-propulsion.com/epower/gallery/ABP-GE%20UDF.htm
• http://www.airlinereporter.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/IMG_3370.jpg