alcohol and mortality published version

8/6/2019 Alcohol and Mortality Published Version

1/19

164

Aecan Econoc Jonal: Ale Econoc 2009, 1:1, 164182://www.aeaweb.og/acle.?o=10.1257/a.1.1.164

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http://www.aeaweb.org/.?=10.1257/.1.1.164

The Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality:

Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the

Minimum Drinking Age

B Christopher Carpenter and Carlos Dobkin*

We eae e eec o alcool conon on oal nge n nng age n a egeon conn egn. We

fn lage an eae nceae n nng a age 21, ncl-ng a 21 ecen nceae n ecen nng a. We alo fn acee 9 ecen nceae n e oal ae a age 21, al

e o oo vecle accen, alcool-elae ea, an ce.We eae a 10 ecen nceae n e nbe o nng ao ong al el n a 4.3 ecen nceae n oal. Oel gge olce a ece nng aong ong alcan ave banal blc eal benef. (JEL I12, I18)
http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/app.1.1.164http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/app.1.1.164http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/app.1.1.164http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/app.1.1.164http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/app.1.1.164


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VOL. 1 NO. 1 165CArpENtEr ANd dOBkiN: EECt O ALCOhOL CONsumptiON ON mOrtALity

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v w (.., - ). S, w w - w .

I , w (RD) . T RD MLDA 21. S v v -21 , w

2 A 2002 vw w 1960 1999, , , w - (W T 2002). A , v . F , w MLDA (.., JD. B Dv Hw 1999, C S. C 2004) w w (R W. H, D M, T H 1985). S w v , j- , -, w (, , N E. J, C F. P, L S. R 1992; H C.J R K. J 1993; J Hw . 1998).

3 R K (2000), , w -v w v . W T (2002) w 11 33 q (.., -vw w / , /

, ) v w . Mv, - w z. P J. C M J. M (2001) MLDA 9 17 . T S. D (1999) v 8 , w C .(2007) 4 .


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166 AmEriCAN ECONOmiC JOurNAL: AppLiEd ECONOmiCs JANuAry 2009

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RD MLDA, w 21 w , w v .

W v U S v - v MLDA w - -21 .4 T RD ,w - MLDA .W w MLDA w 1121 . T w w . W w - 21 9 ,w v , , w . W v -. S, w 1 w 21-- v w 0.4

. T , , w w , v v v , .

T w. S I NH Ivw Sv N C H S w . S II v . S III , S IV .

I. Data

T j w . F , w v N H Ivw Sv(NHIS) 19972005. T v , w N C H S 1997 2004 , w v . F , w 1922, v.

4T RD v v w ( - v vv ) v .W v w.


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T NHIS v US v v . T q w v 1997 2005. W v

v w vw , w w w vw v. E NHIS v v q -.5 W v q. T : w v 12 , w - v 12 , w v v .6 W w q : w v w -

v v .

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21 w w .7 T w

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6 A v v , w - v . T NHIS q , I , w v v v? I , , v v v v . F , w v v .

7 F q, I , w v v v-?, 37 w . Bww w j v 21

. F w , vw 21 v vw j 21 w 21--. Mv, vw 21 v v 21-- . T . T j w v- v v 21 .


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. T 21 v q 21 . T v

21 v v. F, v w . F, w w w, - (.., v) 21. T v .S, w w w j 21 v 12 21. B w v . F, v, v vw j w- v 20-- 21--. I w w , w 21. T , wv w v q.

T NCHS . T v v U S - 19972004.8 W

w : .9 W w v : , , v, w , w , .10 T w-- ( - W A A), w v

8 E 19901996 v 19972004 ( WA B, ://www.w./.?=10.1257/j.1.1.), 2005, v NHIS , w .

9 T w w - w w . F, w v w . W - (L G. E M Oz 2002, ).

10 T, w I C D, N T v. A -- v W A C. W - : - , , , , , , v, ,

v, - v , v . T - w w . W w , w v w : , , MVA, , , . D , , w, w w .


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w- .11 I .

II. Methods

C - :

(1) a5Xab1g(a) 1dap

1va,

wa v a;Xa - v a; g(a) (.., w- );da 21 ; va v . T - p a 21. S da v w , p v . L v a. I w- v X v j v,q (1)

(2) a5E3au 5a 45Xab1g(a) 1dap

1va.

W v g(a) w- .

I v,w J H, P T, W v Kw (2001). T w w Jq F I Gj(1996). W w - 21, w 21. W w .

T - q (2) w MLDA w . F . W v - 21 .

11 T v, v v 30 . F (w), w w- w- .


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III. Results

T v w . I , w - w 21. I , w w - 21 w v . W w -, , .

A.Alcool Conon

I , w w q - w 21 .12 I F 1 w w 12 - , w 12 - , w v .T , v 30- v . W v

12 W (21) , v v . S 20 21, -21 .

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

19 19.5 20 20.5 21 21.5 22 22.5 23

Age

Proportion

reporting

behavior

12 or more drinks in one year

12 or more drinks in one year fitted

12 or more drinks in life

12 or more drinks in li fe fitted

Some heavy drinking in last year

Some heavy drinking in last year fitted

Figure 1. Age Profile of Drinking Participation

Noe: NHIS S A 19972005. C 30- v-. T - w v v 21 .


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v .13 T w 65 20-- NHIS v 12 , 21.14

13 T q w v 21 . I vw . A q w.

14T v NHIS w. Aj w v v v . T

q w v 21 . I vw ( ). T v q, w vw w- v v 20--. N ww . W v .

Table 1Alcohol Consumption: Participation

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

12 o oe n n lee

Ov 21 0.0418 0.0316 0.0268 0.0198 0.0199(0.0242) (0.0301) (0.0292) (0.0423) (0.0179)

Ov 16,107 16,107 16,107 16,107r2 0.02 0.03 0.10 0.10

P. C-Sq 0.00 0.61

12 o oe n n one ea

Ov 21 0.0796 0.0657 0.0611 0.0603 0.0461(0.0254) (0.0313) (0.0301) (0.0438) (0.0218)

Ov 16,107 16,107 16,107 16,107r2 0.02 0.03 0.11 0.11

P. C-Sq 0.00 0.56

An eav nng n la ea

Ov 21 0.0761 0.0527 0.0492 0.0262 0.0398

(0.0248) (0.0304) (0.0291) (0.0430) (0.0201)

Ov 16,107 16,107 16,107 16,107r2 0.01 0.01 0.10 0.10

P. C-Sq 0.00 0.67Cv N N Y Y NW N Y Y Y NQ Y Y Y Y NC N N N Y NLLR N N N N Y

Noe: T . R . Cv , , , , - , w- , w- 1 1 , w. W NHIS w w v v. P v (N ) v. T v N w v 21. T v 21, Ov 21 v v - 21. I , w w -- w. F , w w F Gj (1996) N -21 . W v v-v (d) q (s2). T -- -w 5c(s2r/d), w c (c5 3.44 ), r v (.., N ). W w, , 21, 21. T v w wv w- w- v .


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I T 1, w w 12 . T F 1. T

4 .15

I , w NHIS w j 21 US . Aj - w -21 v v v w. I , w v vw w- . W v , , , H, , , v. T v w , z j 21. I , w , w z j. T

-v W ( w) , w . F, 5, w w -- w -21 (F Gj 1996). T 21 v v 12 . W

v v q . T 21 v 21 w w v w .

F 1 w - 12 ( ) 5 v ( ).T F 1 -

T 1 12 6 q w v w- ( 3). Rv - j 21 55 , 11 . O - T 1 v 5 21. T 16 v v j 21,

15 S v ( ) w- - vw, Ov 21 v 21. F w- v A D E.


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w v . F F 1, w v v q.

I F 2, w v -. T v j 2 - ( w q). I T 2, w , w w v

22.5 w q . T v v 20-- 8.5 (.., 21 v j 21w 3). A w T 1, w j 21, F 2 w w v - vw j w- . I, w . F 2 w v- v ( ). T T 2 v 20 v 21 , . T w v v

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

19 19.5 20 20.5 21 21.5 22 22.5 23

Proportionofdaysdrinking

Drinksperday

5

4

0

1

2

3

Drinks per day

Drinks per day fitted

Proportion of days drinking

Proportion of days drinking fitted

Proportion of days heavy drinking (. 5 drinks)

Proportion of days heavy drinking (. 5 drinks) fitted

Figure 2. Age Profile of Drinking Intensity

Noe: P w, , ; 71 - w . Av w .


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21, v v 21.16

F, v, w 21 . T v (.., v

2 3 T 1 2) v . I T 3, w v , , ,

16 W v . T w vv v 21 ( F 2).Mv, v w -20 v (w z 6.4 ), w ( T 2). A w , wv, 21, w w 21. F , w v

20-- 21-- NHIS ( v W A F). W , 10 , v 21-- 20--. T w z, , v v. T , v 21 , v , v .

Table 2Alcohol Consumption: Intensity

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

pooon o a nng

Ov 21 0.0245 0.0180 0.0182 0.0119 0.0107(0.0086) (0.0097) (0.0095) (0.0135) (0.0072)

Ov 16,107 16,107 16,107 16,107r2 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.07

P. C-Sq 0.00 0.56

pooon o a eav nng

Ov 21 0.0120 0.0075 0.0075 0.0021 0.0026(0.0061) (0.0063) (0.0062) (0.0091) (0.0048)

Ov 15,825 15,825 15,825 15,825r2 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.05

P. C-Sq 0.00 0.72

dn e a on a nng

Ov 21 0.2387 0.2068 0.2465 0.2806 0.1886

(0.2810) (0.3403) (0.3291) (0.4782) (0.2024)

Ov 9,906 9,906 9,906 9,906r2 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.07

P. C-Sq 0.00 0.92

Cv N N Y Y NW N Y Y Y NQ Y Y Y Y NC N N N Y NLLR N N N N Y

Noe: S N T 1. P w, , . F w , 71 vw 21 w . T v D D - w .


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vv 21 . W v 21 , v W A G.17 T v

17A w w NHIS v , w 21, - w w . T 19 21 w R M ( M v 18) (F . 2007). Hwv,

Table 3Age Profile of Demographic Characteristics from the NHIS

M W B HN HS

DHS

D EmdL w

N

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Ov 21 0.0156 0.0172 20.0250 0.0095 20.0108 0.0040 0.0019 20.0061 0.0043(0.0260) (0.0293) (0.0211) (0.0203) (0.0230) (0.0291) (0.0302) (0.0171) (0.0293)

C 0.4405 0.6440 0.1415 0.1638 0.1810 0.2941 0.6453 0.0849 0.2970(0.0168) (0.0195) (0.0137) (0.0129) (0.0154) (0.0194) (0.0203) (0.0114) (0.0191)

Ov 16,107 16,107 16,107 16,107 16,107 16,107 16,107 16,107 16,107r2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00

Noe: S NHIS S A F (19972005). S . T v w v 21 . S A 5 2 21, v 21.

19 19.5 20 20.5 21 21.5 22 22.5 23

Age

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Death

sper100,0

00person-years

All All fitted

Internal Internal fitted

External External fitted

Figure 3. Age Profile for Death Rates

Noe: D N V S R. I U Sw 19972003. T v . S A C .


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v - v .

B.moal

I , w v w - v . I F 3, w v 100,000 , w w - . W 100,000 v v v . E v , , , w , w ,

w . F, w q z w . S, q ( 75 v ) M , w v w - v v .

Table 4Discontinuity in Log Deaths at Age 21

(1) (2) (3) (4)

dea e o all cae

Ov 21 0.096 0.087 0.091 0.074(0.018) (0.017) (0.023) (0.016)

Ov 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,458r2 0.04 0.05 0.05

P. C-Sq 0.000 0.735

dea e o exenal cae

Ov 21 0.110 0.100 0.096 0.082(0.022) (0.021) (0.028) (0.021)

Ov 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,458r2 0.06 0.08 0.08

P. C-Sq 0.000 0.788

dea e o nenal cae

Ov 21 0.063 0.054 0.094 0.066

(0.040) (0.040) (0.053) (0.031)

Ov 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,458r2 0.10 0.10 0.10

P. C-Sq 0.000 0.525

Cv N Y Y NQ Y Y Y NC N N Y NLLR N N N Y

Noe: S N T 1. T v x w- . E w j, , . T I D N . P W A C

ICD v. T v N - w v 21.


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j. F 3 w v 21 10 100,000 . G v j 21 .

T 4 F 3. T - v w ( ) 19972004 . W

v 1,460 w 19 22, v.18

T v 21 , , - 21. I , w q . I , w w- . I , w . I , w w -- w -21

18 W v . R v.

19 19.5 20 20.5 21 21.5 22 22.5 23

Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Deathrateper100,0

00

Alcohol Alcohol fittedHomicide Homicide fittedSuicide Suicide fittedMVA MVA fittedDrugs Drugs fittedExternal other External other fitted

Figure 4. Age Profiles for Death Rates by External Cause

Noe: S F 3. T v. T , ,MVA, w , w . T ICD-9 ICD-10 C A C.


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(F Gj 1996).19 T-v W ( w) .Hwv, v v ww v F 3, 9 v w 21 10

.20

F 4 . T w v 21, w

19 I W A H, w w v z . T W A I. I W A J, w v v w w v w w w F Gj (1996) - T 1. T W A K. F w- v A L, M, N.

20

N 0 ( 5.4 ). A v 21 v . F, w - . S, / v . S w , w 21.

Table 5Discontinuity in Log Deaths at Age 21 Due to External Causes

(1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4)

A H

Ov 21 0.388 0.346 0.406 0.441 0.009 0.002 20.003 20.014

(0.119) (0.116) (0.156) (0.117) (0.045) (0.045) (0.061) (0.041)

Ov 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,458 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,458r2 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01

P. C-Sq 0.000 0.228 0.000 0.495

S M v

Ov 21 0.160 0.154 0.135 0.105 0.158 0.143 0.145 0.139(0.059) (0.059) (0.086) (0.045) (0.033) (0.032) (0.044) (0.032)

Ov 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,458 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,458r2 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.15 0.16 0.16

P. C-Sq 0.000 0.892 0.000 0.666

D O Ov 21 0.070 0.067 0.004 20.016 0.087 0.098 0.098 0.074

(0.081) (0.082) (0.107) (0.078) (0.060) (0.059) (0.075) (0.043)

Ov 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,458 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,458r2 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01

P. C-Sq 0.000 0.643 0.000 0.877

Cv N Y Y N N Y Y NQ Y Y Y N Y Y Y NC N N Y N N N Y NLLR N N N Y N N N Y

Noe: S N T 4. T 276 v w N ;

v 0.5 w v . T 15 v w N ; v 0.5 w .


16/19


- (.., v-) . W v v 21. T 5 w w w F 4, w

35 21, , v 16 . T 5 w v 15 21.21 E , w (.., w T 5) w v 10 , .22 T v v w , , w.

I W A O, w w - v , , . T v 10 j v . T v v 15 w, v w H. I , w -. T v v v 9 17 . I , v -

w v 21 w w .23

21 T v 21 . T , w v vv (.., - w ). T v ( - ), . Wv w.

22 F w w , vw z . I T 5, w v 0.5 v . W A P w w w -v : 1 ( 0.5) v ( 2 ) v ( 3 ).

23 F , w W A O. T , v q. U, z NHIS, 21 . F , wv, w RDD -

W A Q. N w . Mv, W A Q w- ( v -) . S v - , v w v.


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IV. Discussion and Conclusion

I , w - v . Iv j v

21 21 v j 21 , w v . W v v , w .W 9 21. W w , w - , v , .

O v w v w . F, wv w , w v . T v ( - ) - 21. S, v w v . F 1w w v 21. B w w v, 21 -21 v. F 3 4 w . A v, w v , w

w v.24 I w v, 0.43 v w v w (.., 0.091/0.21). T 21-- . I q .25 O 20 w 408 20--.26 Gv v

24 O w v v w .Hwv, MVA v v v.

25 A q : w 21? S v MLDA w (D W N. Ev 2001 M A. M 1986),w v (H S M G 1987 C G T 1984). T F 3 4 w .

26

T w w 20-- 2007 (4,027) j 1997 2005 RDD. T RDD MVA w 21 , F A R S, 21- 22- - w v 0.21 .


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$8.4 ( 2007 US ) v $3.4 .27

F, v

. Gv v 18--20-- , - v , w - . Mv j - 18- 24--. O w , .

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