air-sea interactions in the sams region paulo nobre cptec/inpe iii reunião de análise e previsão...
TRANSCRIPT
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Air-Sea Interactions in the SAMS Region
Paulo NobreCPTEC/INPE
III Reunião de Análise e Previsão Climática do PMTCRH para o Nordeste do Brasil em 2005.
Recife, 17 de março de 2005.
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SAMS CLIMATE VARIABILITY & CONVERGENCE ZONES
From: Grodsky and Carton (2002)
ITCZITCZ
SACZSACZ
SITCZSITCZ
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Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly CorrelationCPTEC AGCM simulation and CAMS precip.
DJF MAM
From: Marengo et al. (2002)
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Nordeste’s Rainfall PredictabilityNordeste’s Rainfall Predictability
personal com.L. MarxCOLA
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800W 600W 400W 200W 00 200E
200N
00
200S
200N
00
200S
(B)
(A)
WET
ACOOLER SST
WARMER SST
ITCZ
A
The Atlantic ITCZThe Atlantic ITCZThe Atlantic ITCZThe Atlantic ITCZ
ITCZ
A
A
COOLER SST
WARMER SST
DRY
Adapted from: C. A. Nobre and L. C. B. Molion (1988)
MeridionalGradientSSTA
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ATLANTIC ITCZ POSITION AND OLRANOMALY CORRELATION
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MAM CPTEC AGCM T062L28ANOMALY CORRELATION
TAUY
RAINFALL
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South Atlantic Convergence Zone & SSTA
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Prescribed SST anomaly fields
COLD WARM
Nobre et al. (2002)
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Nobre et al. (2002)
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Nobre et al. (2002)
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Chaves and Nobre (2004)
SST DIFFERENCES: OGCM EXPERIMENTS
Warm-Ctrl: Wind + SW
Cold-Ctrl: Wind + SW
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CPTEC CGCM SISTEMATIC ERRORS
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DFJ Precip Anomaly Correlation
AGCM SIMULATIONS
CGCM PREDICTIONS (October IC)
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CPTEC CGCM – AGCM DFJ PRECIP ACOR
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Observations: The PIRATA Array
R/V ANTARES
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The PIRATA BACKBONE The PIRATA BACKBONE and the SW EXTENSIONand the SW EXTENSION
Background map: Mean No. of SST observations/month COADS 1961-90
(LAMEPE-2002)
(INMET-2004)
To be moored by July 2005.
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PIRATA SWE & JASON/T-P ground tracks
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ITCZ Sounding Experiment-2006
CTD Stations
SPSP
F. NoronhaFortaleza
Natal
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Final Remarks
• Convergence zones represent important mechanisms modulating precipitation variability over South America.
• ITCZ: planetary scale, strongly modulated by SST: – Prediction of SSTA over the tropical (South) Atlantic.
• SACZ: Regional scale, coupled phenomena: – 1-Tear approach is a need.
• Needs: – Coupled model development (eastern basin St. deck),– Coupled data assimilation,– Ensemble prediction techniques, – Sustained ocean observation strategies (e.g. PIRATA)…