June 2016

Air quality and health impacts of the Trypillia coal-fired power plant near Kiev Lauri Myllyvirta, coal and air pollution analyst, Greenpeace International

The 1,800MW Trypillia coal-fired power plant, 40km south of Kiev, is among the largest in all of Ukraine.

The impacts of the pollution emissions from the power plant on air quality and health were studied

using the CALPUFF air pollution modeling system recommended by the U.S. EPA for assessing long range

transport of pollutants and their impacts. The health impacts of the modeled air pollutant exposure

resulting from the emissions were assessed based on findings from the largest epidemiological study on

health impacts of air pollution, the American Cancer Society study.

The impacts were modeled over a 1500km x 1500km domain covering Ukraine and the neighboring

countries, with the immediate vicinity of the plant covered at higher spatial resolution.

The emissions from the Trypillia power plant elevate the levels of toxic particles, SO2 and NO2 in the air

over entire central Ukraine, with some of the worst impacts felt in Kiev due to prevalent wind patterns.

Exposure to these pollutants increases the risk of diseases such as stroke, lung cancer, heart and

respiratory diseases in adults, as well as respiratory symptoms in children. This leads to premature

deaths from these causes. SO2, NOx and dust emissions contribute to toxic particle exposure.

Importantly, the CALPUFF modeling system is capable of simulating the chemical transformation of SO2

and NOx emissions into secondary PM2.5 pollution in the atmosphere, a very important impact pathway

that is usually neglected in Environmental Impact Assessments and regulatory processes.

The estimated health impacts due to PM2.5 exposure are 1,250 premature deaths per year (95%

confidence interval: 790 to 1,710). Estimated number of babies born with a low birth weight due to the

emissions is 440.

Public health in Ukraine is heavily affected by PM2.5 pollution, with the Global Burden of Disease project

attributing 49,000 premature deaths in 2013 to particle pollution. Reducing emissions from large

industrial sources, such as coal-fired power plants is one of the interventions with highest effectiveness

and feasibility of implementation in addressing the very significant negative health impacts of air

pollution.

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Average PM2.5 levels in Ukraine (μg/m3)1. No official PM2.5 measurement data was available in the

study region, but satellite-based observations indicate that average PM2.5 levels in and around Kiev are

among the highest in Ukraine and substantially exceed the World Health Organization guideline of

10μg/m3.

1 Visualized from: van Donkelaar, A., R.V Martin, M.Brauer, N. C. Hsu, R. A. Kahn, R. C Levy, A. Lyapustin, A. M. Sayer, and D. M Winker, Global Estimates of Fine Particulate Matter using a Combined Geophysical-Statistical Method with Information from Satellites, Models, and Monitors, Environ. Sci. Technol, doi: 10.1021/acs.est.5b05833, 2016.

June 2016

TAPM and Calpuff nested modeling domains (in red)

June 2016

June 2016

Google Earth images of the region and the power plant

Properties of the power plant used for the study2

Latitude 50.135

Longitude 30.747

SO2, t/a 44,000

NOx, t/a 11,589

PM, t/a 20,651

PM10, t/a 10,326

PM2.5, t/a 4,586

Stack height (m) 180

Stack Diameter (m) 9.6

Gas Temperature (℃) 140

Gas velocity (m/s) 14

50% of total dust was assumed to be PM10, adopted from Matsuki 20103, and 44% of PM10 was

assumed to be PM2.5, in line with U.S. EPA AP-42 values for electrostatic precipitators. Reported annual

emissions were converted into average emission rates, which were then applied throughout the year.

These emission and stack data were used as the basis of modeling the plant’s air quality impacts using

the CALMET-CALPUFF modeling system.

2 Main department of Sanitary Epidemiological Service in Kiev region, 'Request on the pollution of the environment as a result of Trypilska TPP activity', 05 November 2015. Temperature and velocity from: Y. MATSUKI 2010: ASSESSMENT OF EXTERNAL COST AS AN AGGREGATED INDICATOR OF SUSTAINABLE INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT - AIR POLLUTION CASE STUDY IN UKRAINE. Kyoto University. 3 Y. MATSUKI 2010: ASSESSMENT OF EXTERNAL COST AS AN AGGREGATED INDICATOR OF SUSTAINABLE INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT - AIR POLLUTION CASE STUDY IN UKRAINE. Kyoto University.

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Impacts on air quality and health

Projected increase in annual average PM2.5 concentrations attributable to emissions from the studied

facilities (μg/m3)

June 2016

Projected increase in 24-hour maximum PM2.5 concentration attributable to emissions from the studied

facilities (μg/m3)

June 2016

Projected increase in 24-hour maximum NO2 concentration attributable to emissions from the Trypillia

coal-fired power plant (μg/m3)

June 2016

Projected increase in 24-hour maximum SO2 concentration attributable to emissions from the Trypillia

coal-fired power plant (μg/m3)

For PM2.5, which is the biggest health concern, the largest impacts take place to the east and to the

northwest of the power plant – in the direction of Kiev. Because of the large population exposed,

increases in pollution levels over Kiev have significant implications for health.

In the most affected locations, the emissions from the Trypillia coal-fired power plant can increase daily

average PM2.5 levels by up to 15μg/m3, or 70% above annual average levels4, in worst-case conditions.

Daily NO2 levels can be elevated by up to 20μg/m3 in worst-case conditions in the entire area, and by

more than 50μg/m3 in large parts of the area (shown in black on the map).

Local SO2 and NO2 levels can be affected very dramatically during unfavourable wind conditions, with

daily SO2 concentrations of up to 80μg/m3 and NO2 concentrations of up to 10μg/m3 projected within

10 kilometers of the power plant, and SO2 concentrations of up to 20μg/m3 within 20km. The SO2

levels in particular can cause respiratory symptoms.

As the ambient pollution levels in the area are significantly above WHO guidelines, the emissions from

the power plant contribute significantly to the unhealthy levels of pollution that the population is

exposed to.

4 Average PM2.5 levels were 20μg/m3 in Kiev according to van Donkelaar et al 2016 (first footnote).

June 2016

A significant part of the total population exposure to pollution and of the resulting health impacts takes

place due to long-range transport of the pollution all across central Ukraine.

Health impacts

The health impacts resulting from the increase in PM2.5 concentrations were evaluated by assessing the

resulting population exposure, based on high-resolution gridded population data for 2010 from NASA

SEDAC5, and then applying the CAFE CBA methodology used i.a. for the 2011 EEA report “Revealing the

costs of air pollution from industrial facilities in Europe”. For premature deaths, the exposure-response

relationships established in the American Cancer Society study (Krewski 2009) and recommendations by

U.S. EPA (2010)6 on their application were followed. The values used are shown in Table X. Required

data for current mortality7 was obtained from WHO databases. WHO recommendations for mortality

from NO2 exposure were applied8.

Projected annual premature deaths attributable to emissions from the studied power plant, cases per

year

Cause Deaths Confidence interval

Lung cancer 40 (17-64)

Ischemic heart disease 958 (619-1296)

Stroke 184 (113-255)

Other cardiovascular diseases 40 (25-56)

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 19 (12-27)

Other respiratory diseases 4 (2-6)

Total 1246 (788-1705)

Projected annual non-lethal health impacts attributable to emissions from the studied power plant, cases

per year

Health effect Unit Estimated impact

Low birth weight births cases 440

Chronic bronchitis new cases 80

Hospital admissions cases 50

Work absence worker-years

1,300

Asthma attacks, children cases 1,800

Asthma attacks, adults cases 15,000

5 http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/gpw-v3-population-count-future-estimates 6 United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Pekar, Z., Associates, A., 2010. Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for Particulate Matter. 7 http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/estimates/en/index1.html 8 http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/air-quality/activities/health-aspects-of-air-pollution-and-review-of-eu-policies-the-revihaap-and-hrapie-projects

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Lower respiratory syndromes (LRS), including cough, among adults with chronic symptoms

days 143,000

LRS (including cough) among children days 93,000

Table 1. Concentration-response relationships for premature deaths – increase in risk for a 10μg/m3 increase in

concentration. Central and low values for NO2 are scaled down by 1/3 to remove possible overlap with PM2.5 impacts. 9

Risk ratio for 10μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure Central

95% CI, low

95% CI, high Reference

Cardiopulmonary diseases 1.128 1.077 1.182 Krewski et al 2009

Ischemic heart disease 1.287 1.177 1.407 Krewski et al 2009

Lung cancer 1.142 1.057 1.234 Krewski et al 2009

Low birth weight 1.100 1.030 1.180 Dadwand et al (2013)10

Risk ratio for 10μg/m3 increase in NO2 exposure Central 95% CI, low

95% CI, high Reference

Respiratory diseases 1.037 1.021 1.08 WHO 2013

11

Table 2. Concentration-response functions and population and morbidity data for non-fatal health impacts.12

Pollutant Effect Concentration change

Affected population fraction

Incidence rate

Response function

PM10 Chronic bronchitis, population aged over 27 years

10 70% 0.38% 7.00%

PM10 Respiratory hospital admissions, all ages 10 100% 0.62% 1.14%

PM10 Cardiac hospital admissions, all ages 10 100% 0.72% 0.60%

9 Krewski D et al 2009: Extended Follow-Up and Spatial Analysis of the American Cancer Society Study Linking Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality. HEI Research Report 140. Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA. 10 “Maternal Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution and Term Birth Weight: A Multi-Country Evaluation of Effect and Heterogeneity”. Environmental Health Perspectives. http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/pdf-files/2013/Feb/ehp.1205575.pdf 11 http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/air-quality/activities/health-aspects-of-air-pollution-and-review-of-eu-policies-the-revihaap-and-hrapie-projects 12 AEA Technology Environment 2005: Damages per tonne emission of PM2.5, NH3, SO2, NOx and VOCs from each EU25 Member State (excluding Cyprus) and surrounding seas. Tables 4 and 5. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/archives/cafe/activities/pdf/cafe_cba_externalities.pdf

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PM2.5 Restricted activity days (RADs) working age population

1 67% 19 0.48%

PM10 Respiratory medication use by adults 10 82% 0.0045% 908

PM10 Respiratory medication use by children 10 11% 0.020% 180

PM10 Lower respiratory syndromes (LRS), including cough, among adults with chronic symptoms

10 82% 30% 1.3

PM10 LRS (including cough) among children 10 11% 100% 1.85

Materials and methods

Atmospheric dispersion modeling for the case studies was carried out using version 7 (June 2015) of the

CALPUFF modeling system. CALPUFF is an advanced non-steady-state meteorological and air quality

modeling system adopted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) in its Guideline on Air

Quality Models as the preferred model for assessing long range transport of pollutants and their

impacts.

The TAPM modeling system, developed by Australia’s national science agency CSIRO, was used to

generate the hourly three-dimensional weather fields required by CALPUFF. TAPM uses as its inputs

global weather data provided for the modeling system by CSIRO. TAPM outputs were converted into

formats accepted by CALPUFF’s meteorological preprocessor, CALMET, using the CALTAPM utility, and

the meteorological data were then prepared for CALPUFF execution using CALMET. CALMET generates a

set of time-varying micrometeorological parameters (hourly 3-dimensional temperature fields, and

hourly gridded stability class, surface friction velocity, mixing height, Monin-Obukhov length, convective

velocity scale, air density, short-wave solar radiation, surface relative humidity and temperature,

precipitation code, and precipitation rate) for input to CALPUFF.

Terrain height and land-use data were also prepared using the TAPM system and global datasets made

available by CSIRO. A set of concentric nested grids with a 50x50 grid size and 30km, 10km and 5km

horizontal resolutions and 35 vertical levels, centered on the Craiova region, was used for the TAPM

simulations.

A full calendar year CALPUFF simulation was carried out for all the operating facilities for 2013. The

ISORROPIA II chemistry module of the CALPUFF model requires data on background concentrations of

species affecting secondary inorganic aerosol formation. Appropriate measured values could not be

obtained for Ukraine due to lack of monitoring and/or publicly available monitoring data, so hourly

ozone concentrations monthly average ammonia and H2O2 concentrations were retrieved from the

EMEP MSC-W model outputs for 2013 made available by the Norwegian Meteorological Agency13.

The CALPUFF results were reprocessed using the POSTUTIL utility to repartition different nitrogen

species (NO, NO2, NO3 and HNO3) based on background ammonia concentrations.

13 Open Source EMEP/MSC-W model, rv4.8 (October 2015). https://wiki.met.no/emep/page1/emepmscw_opensource

June 2016

The health impacts resulting from the increase in PM2.5 concentrations were evaluated by assessing the

resulting population exposure, based on high-resolution gridded population data for 2010 from NASA

SEDAC14, and then applying the CAFE CBA methodology used i.a. for the 2011 EEA report “Revealing the

costs of air pollution from industrial facilities in Europe”. For premature deaths, the updated WHO

recommendations for health impact assessment were followed,15 and required country-level data for

current mortality16 was obtained from WHO databases.

14 http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/gpw-v3-population-count-future-estimates 15 http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/air-quality/activities/health-aspects-of-air-pollution-and-review-of-eu-policies-the-revihaap-and-hrapie-projects 16 http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/estimates/en/index1.html