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Air pollution from ships
Christer Ågren AirClim
Ship emissions occur close to land Globally, 70-80% of ship emissions take place within 400 km from shore
In the North Sea, 90% of emissions take place within 90 km from shore
Sources: ICCT (2007), PBL (2012)
EU28 land-based vs. shipping around Europe 1990-2015 (kton)
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SO2 NOx
Land-based NOx cut by 58% 1990-2014 Land-based SO2 cut by 88% 1990-2014
50,000 deaths/year in Europe
Source: J. Brandt et al, CEEH, Denmark (2011)
In Europe, emissions from international shipping is estimated to cause some 50,000 premature deaths per year due to PM2.5
Tiny airborne particles (PM2.5) cause premature death through lung and heart disease
Ship emissions are a major cause of eutrophication and acidification
NOx-N Norway 28% Sweden 26% Denmark 26% Portugal 24% Ireland 23% Netherl. 19% Finland 18% Spain 18% UK 18% Italy 15%
SO2-S Portugal 26% Denmark 24% Netherl. 22% Ireland 20% Norway 19% Spain 18% Sweden 17% France 15% UK 13% Italy 13%
Source: EMEP (2015)
Examples of countries with a high proportion of air pollutant fallout from ship emissions (2013)
Developments in the International Maritime Organisation (IMO)
Swedish/Norwegian initiatives 1988, resulted 1997 in MARPOL Annex VI, which entered into force in 2005: - Global cap: 4.5% S in bunker fuels - SOx-ECAs max 1.5% S (Baltic: May-06 & North Sea: Nov-07) - Weak NOx-standards (Tier I) for new (post-2000) engines Discussions on strengthening of Annex VI as from 2005 lead to a revised MARPOL Annex VI, adopted in October 2008: - Stricter sulphur standards - But NOx-emissions expected to continue increasing…
Revised MARPOL Annex VI (2008) • Entry into force 1 July 2010 • New global sulphur limits: - 3.50% 1/1 2012 - 0.50% 1/1 2020 (possibly 2025; subject to review by 2018) • New SOx-ECA sulphur limits*: - 1.00% 1/7 2010 - 0.10% 1/1 2015 • Stricter NOx standards for new engines - Tier II standard (-16-22%) 1/1 2011 - Tier III standard (-80%) from 2016 in NOx-ECAs only (*Note: Alternatives such as scrubbers or LNG allowed.)
Sulphur content of transport fuels ppm
0.001%
Global average: 2.5% 35000
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IMO globalmarine fuel limit
from 2012
Marine fuel oilcurrent global
average
IMO globalmarine fuel limit
from 2020
IMO SECA fuellimit from 2015
Road transportand inland
shipping fuellimit
Global 0.5% sulphur cap from 2020
Based on IMO’s fuel oil availability study, in October 2016 IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee decided that the 0.5% sulphur global cap shall apply as from 2020. This will:
• Cut global ship SO2 emissions by 8.5 - 9 million tonnes/year
• Prevent more than 100,000 annual premature deaths from PM2.5
Source: IMO MEPC 70/INF.34 (2016)
Health benefits
Year Avoided premature deaths
2020 107,800
2021 110,400
2022 113,100
2023 115,700
2024 118,300
Sum: 569,600
Global 0.5% sulphur cap from 2020 Global emissions from international shipping
(kilotonnes)
2020 2020 2025 2025
(0.5% S) (3.5% S) (0.5% S) (3.5% S)
SO2 2,500 10,900 2,700 11,700
PM 760 1,500 810 1,600
NOx 21,000 22,500
CO2 862,000 917,000
Source: IMO MEPC 70/INF.34 (2016)
EU28 land-based vs. shipping around Europe 2010-2030 (kton) SO2 NOx
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NEC
NEC
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IMO NOx-standards for new ship engines
Compare to EU-standards (Euro VI) for new heavy duty diesel engines in trucks and buses set at 0.4 g/kWh as from 2013 - down from 8 g/kWh from 1992 (Euro I).
2000: 17-9,8 g/kWh
2011: 14,4-7,7 g/kWh
2016 (NOx-ECAs): 3,4-2 g/kWh
NOx controls for shipping – new study
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BAU NECA
Source: IVL/CE Delft (2016)
kton Emissions in the Baltic Sea and North Sea with/without NECA
NOx-abatement measures
Some of the main NOx-abatement options for ships:
• Exhaust gas after-treatment (e.g. SCR)
• Combustion modifications (e.g. EGR)
• Fuel switch (e.g. to LNG or methanol)
• Reduced fuel consumption (e.g. lower speed)
Ship NOx emissions with/without NECA + with levy & fund
kton
Source: IVL/CE Delft (2016)
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Some conclusions from the study
• Baseline (BAU) projection indicate a slight NOx reduction (-14% 2015-2040) (“optimistic” assumptions?)
• A NOx-ECA from 2021 would significantly cut NOx in the longer term (-63% 2015-2040), but not so much short-term (-37% 2015-2030)
• Significant short- and long-term reductions possible through the use of economic instruments, especially levy & fund (-74% 2015-2030)
• A levy & fund could cut NOx by around 400,000 tonnes/yr throughout the 2020s. This equals current total annual land-based emissions from SE, DK and FI combined.
Source: IVL/CE Delft (2016)
Measures to cut ship emissions
• Improved emissions monitoring and compliance control
• Lowered speeds • Emission standards for PM • Develop and adopt an EU marine
fuels quality directive
• Designate all European seas as Emission Control Areas
• Emission charges to cut NOx from existing ships
• Global 0.5% sulphur standard from 2020
NOx
