aim/cge for global and country analysis...aim/cge for global and country analysis toshihiko masui,...

AIM/CGE for global and country analysis

Toshihiko Masui, Azusa Okagawa, Kenichi Matsumoto, Shinichiro Fujimori, and Hancheng Dai(National Institute for Environmental Studies)

The 16th AIM WorkshopNational Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

19 February 2011

Impact/Adaptation Model

Emission Model

Overall of AIM

【Country】

【Global】

【Enduse model】

【Economic model】

【Account model】

【sequentialdynamics】

【dynamicoptimization】

【Local/City】

Agriculture

Water

Human health

Simple Climate Model

Other Models

future society

Population Transportation Residential

GHGemissions

temperature

【Global】【National/Local】

feedback

AIM/Impact[Policy]

Burden share Stock‐flow

mid‐term target

IPCC/WG3

IPCC/WG2

IPCC/integrated scenario

carbon tax

long‐term vision

Accounting

2adaptation

low carbon scenario

CGE models development and their application

• Global model– Long‐term emission

scenarios: RCP and SSP– AME and EMF– Contribution to other

analyses such as LCS study (S‐6; Env. research fund, MoE)

• Country model– Mid‐long term GHG

emission reduction target in Japan

– Application to China

• New model development‒ Global model: more detailed sectors and regions‒ Country model: training workshop toward LCS study

Main purposes of CGE models‒ Consistency check of scenarios‒ Quantification of economic impacts of GHG mitigation policies

3

Global Model

4

Features of present AIM/CGE [Global]

• Global general equilibrium model with recursive dynamics. • Benchmark data of the economic activity is GTAP6 (the year

2001). IEA energy balance table is introduced for energy– Numbers of region: 24– Types of commodity: 21– Treated Gas: CO2, CH4, N2O, SOx, NOx, CO, NMVOC, BC, OC,

NH3• Production factor: capital, labor, resource and land• Future scenarios

– technology change (TFP, AEEI, material inputs, …)– consumption pattern change

• Designed to link with the global technology selection (endusetype) model and country CGE model

5

Region and commodity in AIM/CGE [Global]

JapanChinaKoreaIndonesiaIndiaThailandOther South‐east AsiaOther South AsiaAustraliaNew ZealandRest of Asia‐PacificCanadaUSAEU‐15 in Western EuropeEU‐10 in Eastern EuropeRussiaRest of EuropeBrazilMexicoArgentineOther Latin AmericaMiddle EastSouth AfricaOther Africa

AgricultureLivestockForestryFishingMining (except fossil fuels)Energy intensive productsMetal and machineryFoodsOther manufacturesWaterConstructionTransportCommunicationPublic serviceOther serviceCoalCrude oilPetroleum productsNatural gasGas manufacture distributionElectricity

Coal fire*, Oil products fire*, Gas fire*, Nuclear, Hydro, Biomass*, Waste, Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Other renewables*: with/without CCS 6

RCP and SSP toward IPCC/AR5

• RCP: Representative Concentration Pathways– Inputs to climate models: Concentrations of GHGs, land use change, ...– Following model teams are contributing;

• 2.6W/m2 IMAGE• 4.5W/m2 MiniCAM• 6.0W/m2 AIM• 8.5W/m2 MESSAGE

– NIES (climate modeling team), JAMSTEC and Ibaraki Univ. support AIM team.

– Emission forecasts and historical data for RCP: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web‐apps/tnt/RcpDb

• SSP: Shared Socio‐economic Pathways– Inputs to impact models: Socio‐economic activities– Different future directions: Adaptive Capacity and Mitigation Capacity

RCP

7

Results on RCP

Total CO2 emissions by scenarios

Electricity in 6W/m2 Electricity in reference

RCP

8

Asian Modeling Exercise

• Model comparison project

• Final goals1. Asian scenarios toward low carbon

society (‐2100)• Policy options and their costs in Asia

2. Input outcomes to AR5

• Schedule– 1st meeting in Tsukuba, Sep 2009– 2nd meeting in Beijing, Mar 2010– 3rd meeting in Seoul, Sep 2010– Final data submission, Jan 2011– The 4th meeting in Xian, Mar 2011– Paper deadline: June 1st 2011

AIM/Enduse [Global]Bottom‐up model

AIM/CGE [Global]Top‐down model

Technology information(Energy Efficiency Improvement)

AME

9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

550 ppm 450 ppm

Results from AIM/CGE [Global]

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

China (BAU)China (550ppm)China (450ppm)Japan (BAU)Japan (550ppm)Japan (450ppm)India (BAU)India (550ppm)India (450ppm)

Total CO2 emission(Mt CO2)

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

TPES/GDP(EJ/billion US$)

CO2/GDP(Mt CO2/billion US$)

World carbon price(US$2005/t CO2)

AME

10

Preliminary results for EMF24 (1st round)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Mt C

O2/yr

Scenario 1 Base Scenario 2 Base


Scenario 5 450 CO2e Scenario 6 550 CO2e


Scenario 9 550 CO2e Scenario 10 Idealized G8

Scenario 13 Muddling through Scenario 14 Muddling through

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

billion

US$2005/yr





Scenario 9 550 CO2e Scenario 10 Idealized G8

Scenario 13 Muddling through Scenario 14 Muddling through

Global GDP Global CO2 emissions

EMF24

11

2 approaches toward Low Carbon Society

Low Carbon Society

Backcastingto estimate roadmap

Top‐down approach: global model analysisGHG emissions from Asia region corresponding to global target

Bottom‐up approach: country/local scenario developmentQuantification of activity in the future achieving country/local GHGemission reduction target

How to bridge“GAP”?

LCS

12

Asia in scenario of global GHG emission reduction by half

CO2 emissions (bil. tCO2) Primary energy supply (EJ)

Renewable energy supply (EJ)

Japan ChinaKorea IndonesiaThailand Other Sounth & East AsiaIndia Other Sounth AsiaOther Asia Rest of the WorldReference (global) Reference (Asia)

LCS

13

Country Model

14

▲15%▲19%▲25%

1,261 1,3441,355 1,282 1,374 1,257 1,076 1,018 949

0

500

1,000

1,500

1990

年

2000

年

2005

年

2008

年

技術

固定

参照

▲15

%

▲20

%

▲25

%

Linkage between AIM/Enduse[Japan] and AIM/CGE[Japan]

This information estimated from AIM/Enduse [Japan] is input into AIM/CGE [Japan].

Additional investment to reduce GHG emissions

2011-2020▲15% ▲20% ▲25%

industry Energy intensive industries 1.8 1.8 1.8Industrial furnace, boiler, etc 1.2 1.2 1.4

3.0 3.0 3.3residential High insulation house 10.1 15.3 19.9

High efficient & solar water heater 6.1 7.9 9.6High efficient appliances & HEMS 4.8 7.9 11.3

21.1 31.1 40.8Commercial Energy efficient building 3.6 5.8 6.1

High efficient & solar water heater 0.4 1.1 1.5High efficient appliances 2.0 2.7 3.6

6.0 9.7 11.2Transportation Next generation vehicles 7.0 7.9 8.7

Low fuel consumption 0.8 0.8 0.87.8 8.7 9.5

energy PV 11.0 13.0 15.2Wind power 2.8 2.8 2.8Small scale hydro & geo-thermal 1.7 3.2 5.3Biomass power 1.0 1.0 1.0power system stabilization 2.3 3.6 5.1Gas pipelines 0.3 0.3 0.4CCS 0.0 0.0 0.1

19.0 23.8 29.9Non-CO2 Agriculture 0.1 0.1 0.1

Waste 0.3 0.3 0.3F-gas 0.6 1.4 1.8

1.0 1.8 2.1Total from 2011 to 2020 58.2 78.3 96.8Annual average 5.8 7.8 9.7unit : trillion yen

(as of 21 December 2010)

GHG emissions (MtCO2eq)

Non-energyEnergyTransportationCommercialResidentialIndustry

Fixed techno

logy

Reference

Year 2020

Japan

15

GDP and carbon price from AIM/CGE [Japan](as of 21 December 2010)

2020reference ▲15% ▲20% ▲25%

GDP growth rate(2010‐2020；%/year) 2.07% 1.96% 1.89% 1.77%

GDP change from reference in 2020 (%) ‐1.11% ‐1.78% ‐2.94%

CO2 price(yen at 2000 price/tCO2) 14,643 21,198 41,446

Japan

Within 10 years, GDP growth rate will slow down, but new industries related energy saving equipment and renewable energy will be activated.

16

China Dynamic CGE Model Features

Model: Recursive dynamic CGE model, 41 sectorsTime period: 2005‐2050, 5 year stepGas: Energy related CO2, Process CO2, other GHGsTechnology:

• 12 power generation technologies 7 fossil and 5 non‐fossil

• CCS technology in: Coal and gas fired electricity sectors, sectors of cement, chemistry, iron and steel.

China

17

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

2005

10b

il. Yuan

GDP

RS

S_GDP

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

MtCO2/ year

CO2RSS_GDP

050100150200250300350400450500

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

2005

US$/t CO2 eq

Carbon Price

RS

S_GDP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Mtce/year

Primary Energy in RS

COL OIL NGS HYD

NUC WND BIO SOL

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Mtce/year

Final Energy in RS

SOLID LIQUID GAS ELECT

020004000600080001000012000140001600018000

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Bil.kwh/year

Power generation in RS

COL OIL GAS COLc GASc

HYD NUC WND BIO SOL

China Dynamic CGE Model: Preliminary ResultsChina

18

New model development

19

Main features of a new Global CGE modelNew model Present model

Region 35 (Asian countries; 14) 24 (Asian countries; 8)Industry 38 (manufacture sector is

disaggregated in detail)20

Emissions CO2, CH4, N2O, NH3, SOx, NOx, BC, OC

Institution Household, government, Enterprise

Representative household

Dynamics Recursive dynamic(1 year step)

Recursive dynamic (10 year step)

Base year 2005 2001

Base data Original energy balance and SAM (data reconciliation system)

GTAP and IEA energy balances

Program GAMS / MCP GAMS / MPSGE

Global

20

Preliminary results of global CGE model

Global GHG emissionsGlobal GDP

Global power structure (450ppm‐delay scenario) GHG emission price

0500100015002000250030003500400045005000

2005

US$/t CO2 eq

ChinaKoreaUSAIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaJapanSingaporeThailandVietnamPhilipineRest of South AsiaRest of South east Asia

020406080100120140160180

Tril US$/ y

ear

BaU550ppm450ppm450ppm‐delay

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Mtoe/year

OtherrenewableBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCSHydro

Nuclear

Fired w CCS

0102030405060708090

GtCO2eq/ year

BaU550ppm450ppm450ppm‐delay

Global

21

Country CGE model and example of the results‐a case of Japan‐

• Most of the features are same as global model.• Each national characteristic (eg renewable energy potential)

should be considered.• National governmental target and plan will be implemented

in the scenario.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

GHG

emissions

(Mton‐CO

2 eq

u./year)

ImportedemissionActualemissionBaU

75%reduction

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

GDP

(200

5USD

,billion)

BaU

75% reduction

GHG emissions GDP

Country

22

Training workshop on Country CGE model

• We will have a training workshop for development of country LCS scenario by using a CGE model. – Date; June 1 or 2 weeks (Tentative)– Location; NIES @ Tsukuba

• Required abilities to attend this training workshop– Basic knowledge about microeconomics, input‐output

analysis and GAMS– Experience to publish a peer‐reviewed scientific paper– Enthusiasm to show the economic aspects of LCS

Country

23

aim/cge for global and country analysis...aim/cge for global and country analysis toshihiko masui,...

Documents