agromet for belg 2013 impact outlook

7/29/2019 Agromet for Belg 2013 impact outlook

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Agro-Meteorological Impact Outlook for

Belg 2013

February, 2013


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Outline of Presentation

IntroductionComputed Moisture status for analogue years

2007,1978, 1980 & 2005

Computed WRSI on BelgWheat, Maize, Teffanalogue year 2007 &2005

Computed WRSI Rangeland for analogue

years 2007 &2005Impact of expected Seasonal Rainfall

Probabilities for Belg 2013 on Agriculture

Conclusion and Recommendation


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Major Agricultural Activities of Belg Season

Planting of Belg crops over SNNPR ( Konso, Derashe,Burji, Amaro kello, north Omo and Kanbata &Timbaro),south Tigray, north and northwest Shoa, south & northwollo, Bale, Arsi, and west Hararge.

The main rainy season for the pastoral and agropastoralaraes of the south and southeastern parts of the country,including southern Somali, the lowlands of Borena, Guji andBale zones SNNPR also second rainy season for the pastoralregion ofAfar.

Introduction


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Belg growing areas of the country

Normally Central parts of northern and easternhighlands, central, southwestern and southernEthiopia are known as Belg growing areas.


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5-30 % of annual product from Belg rain

3060% of annual product from Belg rain

Contribution of Belg from annual total production

The contribution of Belg rainfall

is ranging from 5-30% over the

north, northeastern and eastern

highlands where as 30-60% oversouth and southwestern parts of

the country from annual total

crop production of the areas.


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Computed Moisture status for analogue

years 2007, 1978, 1980 and 2005


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1980

Moisture status for the selected analog year for the month of February

1978

Moist to Humid moisture statusfor the month of February in the

given analogue years over South

Tigray, eastern Amhara and

SNNPR. might have a positive

impact on Belg land preparation,

sowing of cereals, pulses and oil

crops. Where as 2005 shows dry to

very dry moisture condition over

most Belg growing areas.

2007

2005


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Moisture status for the selected analog year for the month of March

During the month of March most

of the analogue years indicate

moist to humid moisture

condition over most Belg growing

areas of central and southern

Oromiya, most parts of SNNPR,eastern Amhara and southern

Tigray and northern Somali.

1980

19782007

2005


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Moisture status for the selected analog year for the month of April

The moisture status during themonth of April for the givenanalogue years indicate thatmoist to humid condition overmost Belg growing areas of thecountry for Belg agriculturalactivities, sowing of long cyclecrops like maize and sorghumincluding pulse crops like haricotbean. Moreover, it is also time toharvest water for pasture anddrinking water over the lowlands

of pastoral and agro pastoralareas.

1980

19782007

2005


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In the month of May all the

given analogue years indicatesthat moist to humid moisture

condition over western parts of

the country. The situation might

have favor for Belg agricultural

activities, land preparation for

Meher season and availability of

pasture and drinking water over

pastoral and agro pastoral areas.

Moisture status for the selected analog year for the month of May

1980

19782007

2005


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NDVI and Deviation from normal for thegiven Analog year 2007 and 2005


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NDVI and deviation from normal for the given Analog year 2007

MayAprilMarch

Feb

MayMarchFeb April

NDVI and deviation from normal for the given Analog year 2005


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Computed WRSI for Belg crops Wheat,Maize & Teff the analogue year

2007 & 2005


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WRSI for Belg crops Wheat, Maize & Teff the analogue year 2007 &2005

Wheat Belg 2005 Maize Belg 2005 Teff Belg 2005

Wheat Belg 2007Maize Belg 2007 Teff Belg 2007

Total crops water requirement satisfaction index in the given analog yearshows poor moisture condition over northeastern, central & parts ofsouthern Oromia in all selected yield. Moderate to good WRSI conditionis confined over most parts of SNNPR, parts of southern and eastern Oromia ,northern Somalia and Bale & Arsi zones of Belg growing areas of the country.

Belg Maize crop need proper attention over most Belg growing areas of thecountry .


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Computed WRSI of rangeland foranalogue Years

2007 & 2005


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Computed WRSI of rangeland for analogue years 2007 &2005

Mar 2007

Mar 2005Feb 2005

Feb 2007

May 2005

May 2007

Apr 2005

Apr 2007


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Western & northwestern Ethiopia will experience a probability of normal to abovenormal condition will favor for the availability of moist to humid moisture conditionwhich is Conducive for general agricultural activities and planting of long cyclecrops Therefore, proper input should be utilized to take advantage of the relativelybetter condition for long Cycle crops..

Much of eastern half and northeastern portion of the country expected to experienceprobability of near normal to below normal moisture condition. Thus the situation

might have slight negative impact on the general agricultural activities of the season,availability of pastor & drinking water over pastoral and agro pastoral areas. There forfarmers and the concerned bodies must given attention to the selection of seed whichtolerant to moisture stress, proper utilization of rain water harvesting and moistureconservation.

Southwestern, southern and central parts of the country will expect a probability ofnear normal to above normal moisture condition this might have a positive impact forBelg agricultural activities, availability of pastor & drinking water over pastoral and agropastoral areas, perennial plants and planting long cycle crops.

Southeastern and some parts of Southern low lands of Oromia will expect to have aprobability of normal to below normal moisture situation this will exhibit moisture stressfor perennial plants and negative impact for the availability of pasture and drinkingwater on the area.

Conclusion & RecommendationImpact of expected Seasonal Rainfall

Tercile Probabilities for Belg 2013 on Agriculture


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The analyzed moisture status of all selected analogue years expected to

Moderate to good moisture over Belg growing areas particularly in the southern

portion and SNNPR has paramount importance in the areas where their Belgproduction contribution ranges from 30-60 % from annual production.

Total crops water requirement (WRSI) in all analog year showed total failure over

northeastern, some parts of central & eastern Oromia. Moderate to very good

WRSI condition is confined over southern and few parts of eastern Oromia , Bale

& Arsi zones of Belg growing areas of the country. thus, farmers and theconcerned body need to give attention for those areas shows poor WRSI by

utilize rain water harvesting, moisture conservation and adoption of suitable

crops needing less water requirement should be adopted.

The improvement of moisture condition in the month of April and May over

western half, some parts ofsouth and southeast of all selected analogue yearsexpected to favor planting of long cycle crops and availability of pasture and

drinking water.

Conclusion & Recommendation


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agromet for belg 2013 impact outlook

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