agriculture: the new challenges in the growing world · methane released by cattle and rice farms,...
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CENTER GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY STUDIES (CGSS) RETREAT LABORATORY 21 – 24 AUGUST 2014
UNIVERSITI SAINS MALAYSIA
AGRICULTURE: the new challenges in the growing world
(the past, the present and the way forward)
by
Jamalludin Sulaiman School of Social Sciences, USM
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OUTLINE
I. Objective of Presentation
II. Introduction
III. The Challenges
IV. The Way Forward
V. Summary
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OBJECTIVE OF PRESENTATION
The scope of paper as proposed by the organisers:
1. Production Values
2. Consumption Values
3. Effect of population
4. Affect to poverty
5. Affect to climate change
6. Disaster Risk Management mitigation
This presentation aims to familiarise participants with agriculture, which is not just about food on the table. Agriculture for food is now referred to as Agro-food.
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INTRODUCTION
THE PAST
Agriculture is the economic backbone of the world. Agriculture encompasses cash crops like rubber and oil palm. Its also crops grown to feed animals and to convert into energy to supplement conventional fossil fuels
Agriculture is world’s oldest industry and contributes six percent (6%) to world GDP, but requires 34.5% of world labour force
In Malaysia, agriculture used to be the main contributor of the nation’s income and foreign exchange
To move forward we need to re-invent agriculture to meet future
demands and the wellbeing of society
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INTRODUCTION
TODAY
“Agriculture is among the greatest contributors to global warming, emitting more greenhouse gases than all our cars, trucks, trains and airplanes combined – largely from methane released by cattle and rice farms, nitrous oxide from fertilized fields, and carbon dioxide from cutting of rain forests to grow crops or raise livestock.”
“Farming is the thirstiest user of our precious water supplies and a major polluter, as runoff from fertilizers and manure disrupts fragile lakes, rivers and coastal ecosystem across the globe.”
“Agriculture also accelerates the loss of biodiversity.”
“The environmental challenge posed by agriculture are huge and they’ll only become more pressing as we try to meet the growing need for food worldwide.”
“Sheer population growth is not the only reason we’ll need more food. … prosperity across the world, especially in China and India, … increased demand for meat, eggs and dairy, boosting pressure to grow more corn and soybeans to feed more cattle, pigs and chickens.”
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INTRODUCTION
Surface of Earth: POPULATION Land: 29.1% Water: 70.9% Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Agriculture: 6.0% Industry: 30.7% Services: 63.3% Labour Force: Agriculture: 34.5% Industry: 22.7% Services: 42.8%%
China 1.35 Billion India: 1.23 Billion USA: 319 Million Indonesia: 253 Million UK: 63.7 Million Malaysia: 30.1 Million Australia: 22.5 Million
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INTRODUCTION
SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE
“A sustainable agriculture is one that over the long term, enhances environmental quality and the resource base on which agriculture depends; provides for basic human food and fibre needs; is economically viable; and enhances the quality of life for farmers and society as a whole.”
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OF TOTAL LAND AREA
Underdeveloped: 46.5% Agriculture: 38.6% Other: 14.9% (23.4 million square miles) (19.4 million square miles) (7.5 million square miles)
Erosion
Pastureland
AGRICULTURE’S FOOTPRINT
Forests, high mountains,
tundra, deserts
Cropland
Rural housing and business
Urban areas
Planted forests
Logging
Mines, quarries, roads, railways, reservoirs
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MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
1. To eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2. To achieve universal primary education
3. To promote gender equality and empower women
4. To reduce child mortality
5. To improve maternal health
6. To combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
7. To ensure environmental sustainability
8. To develop global partnership for development
Only 1.38 years remaining before 2015
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THE PRESENT
World Population in Billions
1950 – 2.5
1960 – 3.0
1980 – 4.5
2000 – 6.0
Projections:
2100 – 16.0 (H)
10.0 (M)
6.0 (L)
WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS
7 Billion World Population
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THE PRESENT
30.17 Million 14 August 2014: 12.57
MALAYSIA POPULATION 1980-2008
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THE PRESENT
Agriculture and Health
o Contribution to maternal health
o Globalization of animal diseases
o Impact of pesticides on human and
the environment
Agriculture and Energy
o Potential role in climate change
mitigation.
o Bioenergy for land rehabilitations
o Biomass for energy services
Agriculture Biodiversity
o Dependence on landraces and genetic
variety for breeding program and
subsistence forming
o Monoculture production contributes to
biodiversity loss
Agriculture and Water
o Agriculture practices degrading
water resources
o Agriculture productivity gains
through irrigation threatened by
increasing water scarcity
AGRICULTURE
Hunger and malnutrition
Slowing rates of yield increase
Natural resources constraints
Lacking of access to capital and
market
Unfinished institutional reforms
Water, Environment, Health, Agriculture and Biodiversity
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THE PRESENT
USA (319m) GDP Labour
Agriculture 01.1% 00.7%
Industry 19.5% 20.3%
Services 79.4% 79.0%
UK(63.7m) GDP Labour
Agriculture 00.7% 01.4%
Industry 20.5% 18.2%
Services 78.9% 80.4%
Netherlands (16.9m)
GDP Labour
Agriculture 02.6% 02.3%
Industry 25.4% 18.8%
Services 72.1% 78.9%
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THE PRESENT
INDONESIA (253.6m)
GDP Labour
Agriculture 14.3% 38.9%
Industry 46.6% 13.2%
Services 39.1% 47.9%
INDIA (1.23 B)
GDP Labour
Agriculture 17.4% 49.0%
Industry 25.8% 20.0%
Services 56.9% 31.0%
CHINA (1.35B)
GDP Labour
Agriculture 10.0% 33.6%
Industry 43.9% 30.3%
Services 46.1% 36.1%
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THE PRESENT
THAILAND (67.7m)
GDP Labour
Agriculture 12.1% 38.2%
Industry 43.6% 13.6%
Services 44.2% 48.2%
MALAYSIA (30.1m)
GDP Labour
Agriculture 11.2% 11.1%
Industry 40.6% 36.0%
Services 48.1% 53.5%
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THE PRESENT
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THE PRESENT
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FOOD SECURITY
FOOD
SECURITY
STABILITY OF FOOD SUPPLY
AND ACCESS
ADEQUACY OF FOOD
SUPPLY
Food Safety
and Quality
Nutritional
Adequacy
Cultural
Acceptability
Environmental
Stability
Social
Stability
Community
resource
management
and
conservation
Public
resource
management
and
conservation
Community
support
mechanisms
Economic
policies
affecting
income
distribution
and markets
Social
security
schemes
National
and local
food
controls,
buffer
schemes
Food
trade
Public
nutrition
education and
information
dissemination
Food
production,
storage,
transport,
handling, and
processing
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MALAYSIA
COMMODITY 2000 2005 2010
Rice 70 72 90
Fruits 94 117 138
Vegetables 95 74 108
Fisheries 86 91 104
Beef 15 23 28
Mutton 6 8 10
Poultry 113 121 122
Eggs 116 113 115
Pork 100 107 132
Milk 3 5 5
Source: Ninth Malaysia Plan
SELF-SUFFICIENCY LEVELS 2000 – 2010 (%)
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MALAYSIA
AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY TIMELINE
1960s and 1970s: agriculture development mainly based on expansionary policies through land and regional development
1971 – 1990: NEP with main agricultural development component of poverty alleviation
1980s: rapid transformation of economy towards industrialization
1984: First National Agriculture Policy (NAP1) calls for efficiency in agriculture to sustain long-run growth
1992: NAP2 (1992-2010) introduced due to global and domestic scenarios with greater emphasis on productivity, efficiency and competitiveness in the context of sustainable development and linkages with
other sectors
1998: NAP3 (1998-2010) announced in midst of 1997/98
Asian Financial Crisis
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MALAYSIA
AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY TIMELINE
Objectives of NAP3:
Enhance food security
Increase productivity and competitiveness
Deepened linkages with other sectors
Create new sources of growth, and
Conserve and utilise natural resources on a sustainable basis
2011: National Agro-Food Policy (2011-2020) introduced, effectively replacing the NAP and addresses the issue of food supply based on consumer’s need for quality, safety, nutrition, functionality and environmental sustainability
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MALAYSIA
Current Concerns About Malaysia’s Agriculture:
1. Interconnection between farming system and soil, water, biota and atmosphere are complex
2. Most environmental problems are intertwined with economic, social and political forces that are external to agriculture
3. Some problems are global in scope, while others are experienced only locally
4. Many of these problems are being addressed through conventional as well as alternative agricultural channel.
5. List is not complete
6. No order of importance intended
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THE PRESENT
Rank Country
Rice
Production
(MMT) Country
Rice
Consumption
(MMT) Country
Net Production
MMT
1 China 143 China 139.5 Thailand 10.10
2 India 99 India 93.9 Vietnam 7.30
3 Indonesia 36.9 Indonesia 39.3 India 5.10
4 Bangladesh 33.8 Bangladesh 34.5 China 3.50
5 Vietnam 27.1 Vietnam 19.8 Myanmar 0.65
6 Thailand 20.5 Philippines 12.8 Brazil -0.28
7 Philippines 11 Thailand 10.4 Japan -0.60
8 Myanmar 10.75 Myanmar 10.1 Bangladesh -0.70
9 Brazil 7.82 Brazil 8.1 Philippines -1.80
10 Japan 7.5 Japan 8.1 Indonesia -2.40
Malaysia 1.70 Malaysia 2.60 Malaysia -0.90
Source: Compiled by Earth Policy Institute from U.S. Department of Agriculture, Production, Supply, & Distribution, electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 11 July 2012.
WORLD RICE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
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THE PRESENT
Rank Country Production/ 1000 MT Consumption/ 1000
MT Country Net wheat
production
1 China 108712 112501 US 26846
2 India 65856 65283 Canada 17795
3 US 62550 35704 France 16595
4 France 35062 18467 Australia 14786
5 Russia 34656 38011 Germany 3335
6 Canada 25717 7922 India 573
7 Australia 19290 4504 Turkey -145
8 Germany 19203 15868 Pakistan -2323
9 Pakistan 17628 19951 Russia -3355
10 Turkey 16314 16459 China -3789
WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
source: www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/statistics/wheattable.html
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THE PRESENT
Rank Country Production/ 1000 MT Consumption/ 1000
MT Country
Net corn
production
1 US 353965 163456 US 190509
2 China 220000 60000 China 160000
3 EU-27 64647 19000 EU-27 45647
4 Argentina 26000 3000 Ukraine 24600
5 Ukraine 26000 1400 Argentina 23000
6 Mexico 22500 16750 India 12500
7 India 22000 9500 Russia 11500
8 South Africa 13500 6100 South Africa 7400
9 Russia 12500 1000 Mexico 5750
10 Brazil 274 9000 Brazil -8726.17
WORLD CORN PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
Source: 1. www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=corn 2. www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=corn&graph=fsi-consumption
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THE PRESENT
Rank
Country
Production
(1000 MT)
Consumption
(1000 MT)
Country
Net Meat
Production
1 US 11230.00 11172.00 Brazil 1995
2 Brazil 9920.00 7925.00 India 1875
3 EU - 27 7580.00 7720.00 Australia 1480
4 China 5760.00 6263.00 Argentina 200
5 India 4000.00 2125.00 US 58
6 Argentina 2900.00 2700.00 Pakistan 49
7 Australia 2240.00 760.00 Mexico -55
8 Mexico 1820.00 1875.00 EU - 27 -140
9 Pakistan 1675.00 1626.00 China -503
10 Russia 1380.00 2388.00 Russia -1008
Source: 1. www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=beef-and-veal-meat 2. www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=beef-and-veal-meat&graph=domestic-consumption
WORLD BEEF PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
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THE PRESENT
Rank Country Production (1000 MT) Consumption (1000
MT)
Country Net Dairy (Milk)
Production
1 EU - 27 144750.00 144303.00 EU - 27 447
2 India 141125.00 141125.00 New Zealand 109
3 US 93123.00 93123.00 Argentina 14
4 China 38550.00 38825.00 India 0
5 Brazil 33375.00 33391.00 US 0
6 Russia 31400.00 31730.00 Ukraine -2
7 New Zealand 20569.00 20460.00 Brazil -16
8 Argentina 12209.00 12195.00 Mexico -36
9 Ukraine 11540.00 11542.00 China -275
10 Mexico 11502.00 11538.00 Russia -330
Source: 1. www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=milk&graph=production 2. www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=milk&graph=domestic-consumption
WORLD DAIRY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
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CHALLENGES
Growing Population – by 2050 world’s population expected to be close to 10 billion
To feed growing population – crop production to double, from one billion tons to 2 billion tons
Also as developing world grows more prosperous, more protein (meat) needed by:
Developed countries: 15.3%
Developing countries: 103.6%
Less developed countries: 69.2%
Aspects of standardization and certifications to meet WTO expectations, e.g. ISO International Organisation for Standardisation – for the Muslims the “HALAL” certification
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CHALLENGES
Other challenges?
Human rights and labour related issues – child labour, sweat shops
Trade related issues – NAFTA, EU, AEC
Environmental issues – Rio+20
New consumers with different social and cultural values and preferences
Disaster risk management & Mitigation
Food security issues – a serious agenda for Malaysia
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THE FUTURE
A New Vision for Agriculture
(in order to feed 9 Billion population by 2050)
Delivering food security
Environmental sustainability
Economic opportunity through agriculture
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THE FUTURE
A New Vision for Agriculture (in order to feed 9 Billion population by 2050)
Food security is not a viable social objective unless it is also a profitable undertaking for input suppliers, farmers, and marketers of output. Consumers must then be able to afford to purchase food, secure in the knowledge that it is safe and nutritious (Reardon and Timmer, 2007) Many countries have mistaken the relative decline of agriculture in successfully growing economies as a signal to ignore the sector and starve it of investment resources and policy attention (Timmer, 1998, 2002) The only sustainable pathway out of poverty is higher agricultural productivity coupled with a dynamic non- agricultural economy – a structural transformation.
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THE WAY FORWARD
Freeze agriculture’s footprint – avoid further deforestation, freeze land conversion from agriculture to urban development
Grow more on farms we’ve got – improve productivity
Use resources more efficiently – blending of fertilizers to match soil requirements, organic farming, replace old inefficient water irrigation system
Shift diets – today only 55% of world crop feeds people directly. 36% for livestock, 9% into biofuels and industrial products.
Reduce waste – estimated 25% of world’s food calories and about 50% of total food weight are lost or wasted. In rich countries waste happens in homes, restaurants or supermarkets. In poor countries food lost happens between farmers and the markets.
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THE WAY FORWARD
Challenges of Biotechnology
Genetically modified or GM food is the answer to “Green Revolution”. It is scale-neutral - minimal investment for capital equipment
The next “Green Revolution” is the “Gene Revolution”. But many are concerned for its long term safety
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FOOD LABELING
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AGRICULTURE AND POVERTY
NO direct link between agriculture and poverty
World has plenty though unsustainable, consumption is unevenly distributed
Poverty reduction programmes is not just about growing more food
Poverty reduction policies are state driven – to ensure better distribution of wealth Removing Urban-Bias Policies
Building effective institutional structures
Increasing income of the poor
“We already grow enough food for 10 billion people – and still cant end hunger. … Hunger is caused by poverty and inequality, not scarcity. …”
(Journal of Sustainable Agriculture)
“The world has enough for everyone’s need; but not enough for everyone’s greed”
(Mahatma Ghandi)
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SUMMARY
Agriculture one of the world’s greatest threat to the environment – to global warming. Also highest user of water and greatest polluter due to fertilizer runoff.
Agriculture also accelerates loss of biodiversity and also driver of wildlife extinction.
With more mouths to feed and greater prosperity by 2050, world’s food production has to double.
The next green revolution is the “gene revolution”.
Other strategies that can help solve world’s food problems include freezing the agriculture’s footprint, improve productivity while reducing waste and using resources more efficiently. Such efforts can also ensure sustainability in agriculture, enhances the quality of life for farmer, society as a whole and reduce poverty.
