Agriculture, Poverty Climate ChangeStrategy and Action

Md Shamsuddoha

On the Occasion of Celebrating 25 Years of PKSF

Presentation Outline

Poverty & Agriculture1

Climate Change Implication in Agriculture Sector and Food Security

2

Other Challenges3

Future Strategies4

Poverty Reduction: The Development Priority

Well-known from various national official document

- Poverty reduction through higher growth and employment is the key goal

Poverty incidence fallen over time but is about 33-35% i.e., at least 50 mn suffering from hunger and food insecurity

Poverty fall slow due to still low rate of growth – > 6% for several years now, but still far short of at least 8-9% necessary for fast poverty reduction expected employment generation

Agriculture in Growth and Development

Share in GDP in 20011/12 only 20-21 % - fallen from 25-26% in 2000/01; More than half of labour force still in agriculture

Value addition was Tk 68 thousand crore in 08/09

More than one half of agricultural value added from crop cultivation

Paddy main crop: value added 63% of all crops – next important crop is potato

Growth in agriculturecompared to other sectors (’97 – ’08)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Annu

al rat

e of g

rowth

(%)

Ag and its sub-sectors showed lower rates of growth than other sectors

Ag rate depends on crop growth rate

6

Fluctuations in Growth Rates

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Per

cent

cha

nge

over

pre

v ye

arAgriculture Crops Livestock Forestry Fishery

Crops particularly show

ed m

ore volatility

7

Nature of rice cultivation 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1977-78

1979-80

1981-82

1983-84

1985-86

1987-88

1989-90

1991-92

1993-94

1995-96

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

2007-08

Mn

acre

s

Aman-ac Aus-ac Boro-ac

Increasing dominance of dry period, irrigated boro at expense of aus – stagnant position of aman in rice area

8

Volatility of rice output

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1978-79

1980-81

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

2000-01

2002-03

2004-05

2006-07

2008-09

Perc

ent c

hang

e yea

r on y

ear

Total-p Aman-p Boro-p

Both aman and boro output volatile – but weather-dependent aman shows neg changes while boro’s are positive changes

Contribution of Potato

• Area and output both have grown

• Stagnation during eighties followed by 8-9% growth rate of output since mid 1990s

• Second-most important crop in terms of value added

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Th ac

res

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Th m

t

Acre Output

Pattern and Type of Production

• Mainly marginal and small farm based (88%)

• Land alienation for several reasons incl non-ag uses

• Rising man-land ratio

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

Pers

ons

per a

cre

Food Security Challenges in Bangladesh

Persistent challenges

decreasing land,

environmental (soil) degradation,

increasing population,

household level food insecurity,

widening consumption & income inequality

Challenges Crop Production and Food Security

Emerging challenges

Climate change impacts

Salinity increase and submergence in the south and south-west

• Uneven temperature stresses and rain fall

• Drought in the north and north-west

• Increased frequency/intensity of natural disasters

World food market volatility/uncertainty & Global Recession

Impacts of climate change: Broader Scenario

Climate Change Impacts: Broader Scenario

Average temperature changed

Frequency and intensity of natural disasters increased

Salinity intrusion increased

Decline of precipitation resulted droughts

Extinction of plant and animal species- loss of biodiversity

Sea-level rise by one meter in the current century, likely to:

one third of the country’s land under threat of salt water inundation; loss of livelihoods of 40 million people; 20 million might need relocation by 2050

Surface Temp Increased

CYCLONE Frequency 25 years trend: Previously, we faced 5.48

storms in a year now 7.94 storms in a year

Number of hot

and rainy days

Increased

Salinity Intrusion

Sea level rise will cause salinity intrusion through rivers and estuaries

In the rainy season saline water ingress to 10 % of country’s area, in the dry

season it reaches to 40 %area even

Figure shows that 0.5 meter sea level rise

will cause saline water intrusion in many fresh water areas

Salinity Intrusion

Sea Level Rise and Changes in Precipitation

Year Sea Level Rise (cm)

Temperate Rise ( oC )

% of Changes in precipitation( base 1990)

2030 30 0.7 and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter

3% less in winter and 11 percent more in monsoon

2050 50 1.1 and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter

37% less in winter and 28 percent more in monsoon

Decade-wise occurrence of cyclonic storms and the number of population affected in Bangladesh, 1901-2007

3 2 3 1 3 5

17 18

25

48

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1901-

10

1911-

20

1921-

30

1931-

40

1941-

50

1951-

60

1961-

70

1971-

80

1981-

90

1991-

00

2000-

07

Total occurrence Population affected (million)

Expon. (Total occurrence)

Increased of Disaster Prevalence: CYCLONE

Increased Prevalence of Disasters

Slow Onset Sudden Onset

Dense Fog

Drought

Salinity Ingress

Erratic Rainfall

Excess Rainfall

Monsoon Flood

River Erosion

Strom and Hail

Tidal Flood

Tropical Cyclone

Loss and Damage: New issue of debate

• Crop: – Rice production from 2.71% in 2005 to 2.5% by 2050

– Yield reduction: IPCC, 2007: 32% wheat, 8% rice; Basak, 2010: 1.5%, 2.5%, 4.4% and 5.4% for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively;

Dasgupta.S, 2011: 10-year return period cyclone would damage 50 percent of yield, resulting in US$788.83 million of additional damage caused by climate change by 2050

• Fish: affect physiology and behavior, alter the growth rate, development, reproductive capacity, migration

• Livestock: Affect feed and fodder production/stock

CC Impacts on Major Sector: Agriculture

• Loss of Agri-GDP/ Economic loss:

– Direct annual cost to the national economy of disasters in the last 10 years estimated to be [damage and loss of production] 0.5 and 1.0 % of GDP

– Agricultural GDP is projected to be 3.1 percent lower each year ($36 billion in lost value-added) and total GDP $129 billion lower due to climate change over the 45-year period 2005–50, WB (2008)

CC Impacts on Major Sector: Agriculture

CC impact on potato

• Generally thought to be +ve in temperate climate due longer growing period, although planting date may be advanced by about 2 weeks

• In India, studies indicate opposite – 3-14% decline are expected by 2020 and 2050

• Date of planting due to higher temperature may have to be asvanced or delayed depending on location and agro-ecology

• Pest attacks more likely with rising temperature

• In general adaptation demands more heat-tolerant and pest-resistant varieties

Other Challenges

Food Security: A Conceptual Framework

CONCEPT market based FS comparative advantage in production

REFORMliberalization of food import marketReducing State

Support

RESULT: weaken the subsistence economy based food security

FOOD SECURITY

About food Production

Agenda of States and UN

Physical and economic access

Promotes unfair trading aid politics and dumping.

Conceptual Framework: Food Security:

IT’S Doesn’t Consider-------

Local agricultural production and production system.

Farmers right to produce food and consumers rights to consumption and purchase

The right of nations to protect themselves from cheap agricultural and food imports (dumping).

Link agricultural prices to production costs

FAO’s Committee on World Food Security defined;

‘all people at all times have both the physical and economic

access to the basic food they need’.

Recognized three conditions ;

Adequacy of food supply or availability,

Stability of supply

Access to food at the HH level, and by the poor.

Food price hiking and

State of Food Security in Crisis

Retail prices are up..... ( post cyclone SIRD prdiod during 2008-2009)

18 % in China, 17 % in Sri Lanka, 10 % & more through out the Lt America & Russia, Around 20 percent in Bangladesh

Among the agricultural commodities;

Dairy products are as much as 200 %Maize prices hit a 10 year high in Feb 2007, Wheat is up 50 %, Rice 16 % and Poultry 10 %.

Causes of

Food Price Hiking

Theoretically the market economics says;

‘the price of any commodity rises when its supply fall off or become uncertain,

Myth

technologies helped to increase global rice output steadily from about 254 m tones in 1965 to 598 m tones in 2000.

This growth rate has been declining since 2000............... indicating the need for additional support to increase the productivity of rice

Causes of

lowering production

Worryingly,

India to plant 140,000 sq km bio-fuel crops,

Brazil 1.2 m sq km.

S Africa 4 m sq km of land is being touted as the future Middle East of bio-fuels,

Indonesia to increase its palm oil area from 64, 000 sq km now to 2.6 m sq km in 2050 for energy.

Shifting paradigm of demand side

agri-commodities are considering as the potential raw materials for bio-fuels

Myth: The fuel value of a commodity exceeds its value as food

the price of oil is setting the price of food

Causes of

lowering production

Study Says; In 12 Asian by 2020 consumption will be increased......

beef by 50 %,pork 30 %chicken 40 % and diary 55 %.

Feed Conversion Ratio;Chicken, 2:1Pork 4:1 Beef 7:1

Shifting paradigm of demand side

Grain for cattle feed is increasing as globally the number of meat-eaters is growing

Additional demand for feed grain by 2020 will be 350 to 450 million tones-a 20 to 30 increase on global present production.

CONCERN

Export led Shrimp Monoculture and Corporate Control on Farming System Demand for shrimp increase 1- 5 % per year

Area under production is 200,000 ha compared to 55500 ha in 1998

ecologically, socially and economically destructive.

Disappearance of 21,020.45 acre mangrove forest in Cox’s Bazaar .

Export Led Monoculture: Bangladesh

Market Never Considers the Social &Economical Impact of Food Production

Future Strategies

Future Strategies….

Bangladesh roadmap for addressing climate change impact on food security

Food security

area

Programme

number

Title

AV 1 Sustainable and resilient agriculture through integrated research and extension

AV/AC 2 Sustainable water management and infrastructure for irrigation purposes

AV/AC 3 Adaption to climate change in the fisheries and livestock sectors

AV/AC 4 Reducing vulnerability to natural disasters and prices shocks: preparedness, early warning and awareness

Bangladesh roadmap for addressing climate change impact on food security

Food security

area

Programme

number

Title

AC 5 Livelihoods protection and promotion in the context of climate change

AC 6 Climate change adaptive public food operation and management system

U 7 Adaptation in health sector: community action for malnutrition amidst climate change

U 8 Water and sanitation programme in climate vulnerable areas: control and management of food safety and quality

Thank You All