agri tips for the week

8/9/2019 Agri Tips for the Week

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24th May 2010 to 29th May 2010

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Spices Range Bound On Lack Of Fresh Fundamentals!!

WEEKLYAGRI REPORT

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R E S E A R C H

Weekly Agri Report 1st March to 6th Mar 2010R E S E A R C HR E S E A R C H

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Weekly Chart

Jeera is bearish on charts and one should use the strategy of selling on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains belowthe level of 11140 then we can expect a level of 10700, and if it sustains above 13060 we can see the level of 13500.

Strategy

Jeera remained bearish for the entire previous week, but some good short covering came on Saturday and it closed near to itshigh. For the upcoming week Jeera has an important support of 11140 and resistance of 13060.

EXPECT JEERA TO REMAIN DULL

In the short term prices will correct due to harvesting of Jeera in Syriaand lacklustre demand from the domestic and overseas buyers.In medium to long term (June onwards) Jeera price trend would bedetermined by demand from the overseas and domestic market andJeera price parity in the international market of various origins such asSyria, India and Turkey. According the market sources Jeera productionin Syria is expected to be 20 thousand tonnes and Turkey and Iran at 15thousand tonnes each. But carryover stocks in these above nations arevery low. Lacklustre demand from the domestic as well as overseasbuyers will keep Jeera prices sideways to down in the intraday. In theshort term (May) trend will depend on demand from the domestic andoverseas market, weather in Turkey, the other major producer of Jeeraand Jeera price parity of the different origins in the internationalmarket. In the medium to long term (June onwards) prices are likely todepend on demand from the overseas and domestic market.

Weekly Pivots

R4 14145

12827R2

P

S2

12168

11509

S4 10191

SCRIPT JEERA

13486R3

12586R1

S1 11927

S3 10850

Low Demand

Harvesting Time

REASONS FOR MOVEMENTJEERA

Weekly Report Agri24th May to 29th May 2010


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R E S E A R C H

Weekly Agri Report 1st March to 6th Mar 2010R E S E A R C HR E S E A R C H


Weekly Chart

Traders should go for selling on higher levels strategy, if Guarseed sustains below the level of 2265 we can see the level of2200, and above 2470 it can go further upside till 2580.

Strategy

Guarseed remained in downtrend for most of the week, but some good short covering came on Saturday. For the next weekresistance is found at 2470 level and support at 2265.

GUAR IN WAIT AND WATCH POSITION THESE DAYS

Market participants are following a wait and watch stance and waitingfor near to clear information about arrival of monsoon in Kerala.According to IMD the monsoon is expected by first week of June.However, lower production of Guar in the previous year has ledavailability of the Guar and Guar gum to be scarce. This will controlprices from falling sharply down. Stockiest are therefore going foradditional stocking of the produce till the fresh arrivals in the month ofOctober and November. Prices in the short term will also take cues from

the demand from the overseas buyers. In the long to medium termprices will takes cues from the advent of rains in the coastal areas andits advancement into the interior parts of the nation. Guar seed futuresare likely to trade in sideways manner with no clear fundamentals todrive the prices. Lower production estimates for the year 2009-2010will control the prices from falling sharply down. In medium to longterm prices will take cues from the long range forecast of monsoon bythe Indian Metrological Department (IMD).

Weekly Pivots

R4 2688

2466R2

P

S2

2355

2244

S4 2022

SCRIPT GUARSEED

2577R3

2426R1

S1 2315

S3 2133

Lower Production

Demand From Overseas Market

REASONS FOR MOVEMENTGUARSEED



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R E S E A R C H

Weekly Commodity Report 1st March to 6th Mar 2010R E S E A R C HR E S E A R C H


Weekly Chart

Soybean is in consolidation and one should look for selling opportunities at higher levels, if it sustains below the level of 1910we can see the level of 1880/1850, and on the upper side if it sustains above the level of 2075 we can see Soybean at 2150level.

Strategy

Soybean was in a very narrow range for the entire previous week and was not able to sustain at higher levels and it closed nearto its low. For the coming week Soybean has support at 1910 and 1880 and resistance at 2075 and 2260.

SOYBEAN REMAIN FIRM AS BUYING TAKE PLACEJune Soybean futures ended firm on account of short coverings and improvedbuying at lower levels. In the short term prices will depend on the demand forSoymeal from international buyers and forecast of monsoon. In the medium tolong term prices will take cues from the advancement of rains in the interiorparts of India, sowing progress and stocks of Soy bean in international anddomestic stockiest. Net meal sales came in at 68,300 tonnes for the currentmarketing year and 25,000 for next year for a total of 93,300 tonnes.Cumulative Soybean meal sales stand at 83.8% of the forecast for 2009/2010versus a 5 year average of 72.6%. Old crop sales need to average 82,000tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. Soybean prices are expected totrade higher due to improved buying at lower level. However, from the longterm perspective, soybean prices are expected to trade lower on higher globalsoybean production estimate this year as compared to last year. Decline indomestic oil meal export this year as compared to last year are also in favour ofbears.

Weekly Pivots

R4 2128

2036R2

P

S2

1990

1944

S4 1852

SCRIPT SOYABEAN

2082R3

2008R1

S1 1962

S3 1898

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Improved Buying At Lower Levels

Short Covering

SOYABEAN



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R E S E A R C H



Weekly Chart

Overall trend of Chana is still bearish and one should go for selling on higher level strategy in it. For the coming week if Chanasustains below 2065 level we can see it at 2000 and above 2262 we can expect the level of 2340.

StrategyLast week in Chana some good buying was seen at lower levels and it sustained at higher levels. For the coming week Chanahas resistance at 2262 and support at 2065.

CHANA MAY GAIN ON LOWER LEVEL BUYING

Demand from the locals stockiest for the Chana as the prices of thecommodity are quoting at lower levels will provide support to theprices. According to farm ministry Chana acreage as on April 22 2010stood at 89.35 lakh hectares as compared to 83.60 lakh hectares in thesame period a year ago whereas overall pulses area is around 147.42lakh hectares as compared to 138.68 lakh hectares in the same periodprevious year. Overall Chana production for the year 2009-2010 is abumper crop with good carryover stocks. Production of Chana in

2009-2010 is estimated at 7.38 million tonnes as compared to 7.06million tonnes in 2008-09. This will cap the upside in the long term(June onwards). Chana futures are likely to trade in sideways to upmanner due to improved buying at lower levels. Prices in the short term(May) will depend on the fresh arrivals from the mandis and demandfrom domestic market. In the long term (June onwards) prices may takecues from the prices of other pulses and demand from the domesticstockiest.

Weekly Pivots

R4 2471

2267R2

P

S2

2165

2063

S4 1859

SCRIPT CHANA

2369R3

2228R1

S1 2126

S3 1961

Lower Level Buying

Fresh Arrivals

REASONS FOR MOVEMENTCHANA



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Weekly Pivots

Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

JEERA 12004.00 12494.33 11919.67 11835.33 11260.67 11176.33 10601.67

TURMERIC 16289.00 16196.00 15480.00 14671.00 13955.00 13146.00 12430.00

PEPPER 18671.00 18248.00 17749.00 16827.00 16328.00 15406.00 14907.00

SOYABEAN 2027.50 2036.50 2009.00 1990.50 1963.00 1944.50 1917.00

GUARGUM 5436.00 5392.33 5322.67 5209.33 5139.67 5026.33 4956.67

GUARSEED 2497.00 2466.67 2426.33 2355.67 2315.33 2244.67 2204.33

CHANA 2292.00 2267.33 2228.67 2165.33 2126.67 2063.33 2024.67

Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

MUSTARD SEED 530.70 524.87 518.33 505.97 499.43 487.07 480.53

WHEAT 1296.20 1274.27 1251.13 1206.07 1182.93 1137.87 1114.73

GUR 992.20 989.80 982.20 972.20 964.60 954.60 947.00

CARDAMOM 1669.50 1713.83 1599.67 1529.83 1415.67 1345.83 1231.67

CRUDE PALM OIL 387.20 384.37 378.83 370.47 364.93 356.57 351.03

REFINED SOYA OIL 467.10 463.37 458.18 449.27 444.08 435.17 429.98

MENTHA OIL 718.50 720.37 703.93 689.37 672.93 658.37 641.93



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