agri commodity) tips for the week

8/9/2019 Agri Commodity) Tips for the Week

1/7

17th May 2010 to 22nd May 2010

www.capitalvia.com

Dull Demand Prevail In Spices!!

WEEKLYAGRI REPORT

www.capitalvia.com

R E S E A R C H
http://www.capitalvia.com/http://www.capitalvia.com/


2/7

R E S E A R C H

Weekly Agri Report1st March to 6th Mar 2010

R E S E A R C HR E S E A R C H

www.capitalvia.com | 2

Weekly Chart

Jeera is bearish on charts and one should use the strategy of selling on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains belowthe level of 11600 then we can expect a level of 11200, and if it sustains above 13060 we can see the level of 13500.

Strategy

Jeera remained weak for the entire previous week, and closed near to its low on Saturday. For the upcoming week Jeera has animportant support of 11600 and resistance of 13060.

DULL DEMAND PREVAIL IN JEERA

Lacklustre demand from the overseas and domestic buyers will

pressurize the prices. However, Jeera crop in Syria and Turkey are near

to harvesting stage. Any vagaries in weather in above said nations will

provide support to the prices. According the market sources Jeeraproduction in Syria is expected to be 20 thousand tonnes and Turkey

and Iran at 15 thousand tonnes each. But carryover stocks in these

above nations are very low. In medium to long term (June onwards)

Jeera price trend would be determined by the clear crop estimates inSyria and Turkey and demand from the overseas and domestic market.

Lacklustre demand from the domestic as well as overseas buyers will

keep Jeera prices sideways to down in the intraday. In the short term

(May) trend will depend on demand from the domestic and overseasmarket, weather in Syria and Turkey, the other major producers of Jeera

and Jeera price parity of the different origins in the international

market. In the medium to long term (June onwards) prices are likely to

take cues from the Jeera production estimates in Syria and Turkey andexpectation of demand from the overseas market.

Weekly Pivots

R4 14476

13156R2

P

S2

12496

11836

S4 10516

SCRIPT JEERA

13816R3

12722R1

S1 12062

S3 11176

Low Demand

High Arrivals

REASONS FOR MOVEMENTJEERA

Weekly Report Agri17th May to 22nd May 2010


3/7

R E S E A R C H

Weekly Agri Report1st March to 6th Mar 2010



Weekly Chart

Traders should go for selling on higher levels strategy, if Guarseed sustains below the level of 2200 we can see the level of2110, and above 2440 it can go further upside till 2510.

Strategy

Guarseed is weak on charts and has closed below the important level of 2335. For the next week resistance is found at 2577

level and support at 2200.

GUAR MAY FALL IN SHORT RUN

Good rains will be beneficial for the crop leading to better production

thereby pressurizing the prices. According to Indian Metrological

Department there will be near normal rains which is restricting the

prices to go up. However, lower production of Guar in the previous year

has led availability of the Guar and Guar gum to be scarce. Significant

demand from the overseas buyers will provide support to the prices.

Prices in the short term will also take cues from the demand from the

overseas buyers. In the long to medium term prices will takes cues from

the advent of rains in the coastal areas and its advancement into theinterior parts of the nation. Guar seed futures are likely to trade in

sideways to down manner with reduced demand from the overseas

buyers. Lower production estimates for the year 2009-2010 will

control the prices from falling sharply down. In medium to long term

prices will take cues from the long range forecast of monsoon by the

Indian Metrological Department (IMD).

Weekly Pivots

R4 2779

2485R2

P

S2

2338

2191

S4 1897

SCRIPT GUARSEED

2632R3

2400R1

S1 2253

S3 2044

Reduced Overseas Demand

Favorable Weather Conditions

REASONS FOR MOVEMENTGUARSEED



4/7

R E S E A R C H

Weekly Commodity Report1st March to 6th Mar 2010



Weekly Chart

Soybean is in consolidation and one should look for selling opportunities at higher levels, if it sustains below the level of 1910we can see the level of 1880/1850/1770, and on the upper side if it sustains above the level of 2075 we can see Soybean at2170 level.

Strategy

Soybean was in a very narrow range for the entire previous week and was not able to sustain at higher levels. For the coming

week Soybean has support at 1910 and 1880 and resistance at 2075 and 2170.

SHORT COVERING PUSHES SOYBEAN UP

Soybean futures ended mildly higher on short covering on Thursday. TheUSDA's Weekly export sales were in line with expectations for Soybean, mealand oil. Net sales for Soybean came in at 263,300 tonnes for the currentmarketing year and 211,300 for next year for a total of 474,600. As of May 6,

cumulative Soybean sales stand at 95.1% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010versus a 5 year average of 92.9%. Old crop sales need to average 116,000tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in at68,300 tonnes for the current marketing year and 25,000 for next year for atotal of 93,300 tonnes. Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 83.8% of theforecast for 2009/2010 versus a 5 year average of 72.6%. Old crop sales needto average 82,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. Soybean

prices are expected to trade slightly lower on weak fundamentals (short term).However, in the long term perspective, Soybean prices are expected to tradelower on higher global Soybean production estimate this year as compared tolast year. Decline in domestic oil meal export this year as compared to last yearare also in favour of bears.

Weekly Pivots

R4 2118

2046R2

P

S2

2010

1974

S4 1902

SCRIPT SOYABEAN

2082R3

2025R1

S1 1989

S3 1938

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

High Production

Short Covering

SOYABEAN



5/7

R E S E A R C H




Weekly Chart

Overall trend of Chana is still bearish and one should go for selling on higher level strategy in it. For the coming week if Chanasustains below 2065 level we can see it at 2000 and above 2175 we can expect the level of 2260.

Strategy

Chana remained weak on charts for the whole week, but some short covering came on Saturday. For the coming week Chanahas resistance at 2175 and support at 1985.

CHANA REMAIN BEARISH

Lower prices of Chana are attracting local stockists to go for additional

buying which will control prices from falling sharply down below spot

prices. However, increase in the stocks at the NCDEX warehouse will

restrict the prices from moving sharply higher. Better availability of

Chana i.e. better production and sufficient carryover stocks of Chana

with the stockists will provide support to bears. According to farm

ministry Chana acreage as on April 8, 2010 stood at 8.93 million

hectares as compared to 8.36 million hectares in the same period a

year ago. Overall Chana production for the year 2009-2010 is abumper crop with good carryover stocks. Production of Chana in

2009-2010 is estimated at 7.38 million tonnes as compared to 7.06

million tonnes in 2008-09. This will cap the upside in the long term

(June onwards). Chana futures are likely to trade in downward manner

due to sufficient stocks available with the stockists and slow demand.

Prices in the short term (May) will depend on the fresh arrivals from the

mandis and demand from domestic market. In the long term (June

onwards) prices may take cues from the prices of other pulses and

demand from the domestic stockists.

Weekly Pivots

R4 2249

2151R2

P

S2

2102

2053

S4 1955

SCRIPT CHANA

2200R3

2128R1

S1 2079

S3 2004

High Stocks

Fresh Arrivals

REASONS FOR MOVEMENTCHANA



6/7

R E S E A R C H




Weekly Pivots

Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

JEERA 12949.00 13156.33 12722.67 12496.33 12062.67 11836.33 11402.67

TURMERIC 16289.00 16196.00 15480.00 14671.00 13955.00 13146.00 12430.00

PEPPER 18228.00 17936.33 17430.67 16633.33 16127.67 15330.33 14824.67

SOYABEAN 1993.50 1999.33 1980.67 1967.83 1949.17 1936.33 1917.67

GUARGUM 5509.00 5552.67 5301.33 5093.67 4842.33 4634.67 4383.33

GUARSEED 2462.00 2485.00 2400.00 2338.00 2253.00 2191.00 2106.00

CHANA 2155.00 2151.33 2128.67 2102.33 2079.67 2053.33 2030.67

Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

MUSTARD SEED 512.25 511.50 507.25 502.25 498.00 493.00 488.75

WHEAT 1209.80 1203.53 1190.67 1171.53 1158.67 1139.53 1126.67

GUR 1013.40 1006.07 992.33 971.27 957.53 936.47 922.73

CARDAMOM 1647.10 1654.70 1601.40 1555.70 1502.40 1456.70 1403.40

CRUDE PALM OIL 370.90 372.23 368.27 365.63 361.67 359.03 355.07

REFINED SOYA OIL 455.65 458.83 451.27 446.88 439.32 434.93 427.37

MENTHA OIL 744.90 747.13 721.77 698.63 673.27 650.13 624.77



7/7

R E S E A R C H





The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do notaccept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them

the most.

Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The

information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable.This material is for personal information and

based upon it & take no responsibility

The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together

with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice.

Analyst or any person related to CapitalVia might be holding positions in the stocks recommended.

It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views

expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for.

Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer.

All Rights Reserved.

Investment in Commodity has its own risks.

We, however, do not vouch forthe accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss

incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the

recommendations above.

CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or

Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal

Actions can be taken.

DisclaimerDisclaimer

agri commodity) tips for the week

Documents