agri commodity reports for the week (25th - 29th april '11)

8/7/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (25th - 29th April '11)

1/7

AGRI MA

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25th Apr - 30th Apr 2011

W e e k l y R e p o r t

AG RI MA RK ETAGRI MARKET O I L A N D O I L S E E D S S O A R S O N G L O B A L C U E S

Globa l Resear ch L im i t ed


2/7

Daily

Chart

JEERA (MAY)JEERA WEAKENS ON REDUCED OFF TAKES W e e k l y R e p o r t

Spot prices of Jeera as well as futures continued to

trade lower and settled O.26% and 0.67% lower

last week owing to reduced off takes by the local

stockists. There are reports of fresh overseas

enquires for Jeera. This is likely to provide support to

the prices. Arrivals in the domestic will also start to

decline gradually due to ending season. Arrivals in

the domestic mandi stood at 22,000 bags, 2000

bags higher as compared to Tuesday whereas off

takes remained steady around 20,000 bags.

Production of Jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in

2011 is expected to be around 21 lakh bags and 7-8

lakh bags in Rajasthan. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs).

(Source: spot market traders). Fresh crop arrivals

from the other major producers Syria and Turkey areslated to commence from May- June. These

countries are currently reported to have low carry

over stock and are awaiting arrivals from the new

crop. Their prices of Jeera are being offered at higher

levels than the Indian origin. Syrian Jeera is being

offered in the international market at $3,400/tonne,

Turkey around $3,350/tonne whereas Indian Jeera is

being offered around $3,150/tonne. Production of

Jeera in Syria and Turkey was around 20,000 tonnes

and 15,000 tonnes respectively in 2010. Jeera prices

in the intraday will trade sideways to up on account

of improved buying by the market participants and

expected demand from the overseas buyers. In

medium to long term (April onwards), Jeera prices

will depend on the demand from the overseas anddomestic buyers. Prices will also take cues from the

sowing progress in Syria and Turkey the other major

producers of Jeera in the long term (April end

onwards).

Last week Jeera did our target of 14650

below the level of 15050, Jeera continued

its bearish trend last week and took

support from its important level of 14450.

For the next week Jeera has resistance

at15725 and support at 14430.

Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one

should use the strategy of sell on higher

levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains

below the level of 14430 then we can

expect the level of 13950, and if it sustains

above 15725 then we can see the level of

16100.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Fresh buying Poor domestic demand

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS

MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

16877

15972

15402

15067

14497

14162

13257

w w w . c a p i t a l v i a . c o m 2

Global Research L imited

25th Apr - 29th Apr 2011


3/7

Daily

Chart

GUARSEED (MAY)GUARSEED FALLS ON WEAK EXPORT DEMAND

Guarseed and Guar gum futures ended 2.95% and

3.08% lower on expectation that monsoon this

season would be good. IMD normally release two

operational monsoon forecast, first in April and then

in June. In the current crop season, export demand

was the only factor which had drived Guar prices

higher despite bumper crop. However, from April

onwards monsoon would also play a significant role

in determining the trend in Guar prices. Exports

which were hit drastically lower during the last 2

years, had reached record levels in the financial year

ending March 2011. According to Agriculture and

Processed Food Products Export Development

Authority (APEDAJ), Guar gum exports during April-

December 2010 surged by 82% and stood at

2,79,197 tonnes. Arrivals of Guar in the domestic

mandis on an average are around 10 thousand bags

as compared to 75 thousand bags the previous

week. According to the Rajasthan farm

Department, Guar seed output in Rajasthan in the

current season is estimated at 14.9 lakh tonnes. The

forecasted Indian output this year is much higher

than the 4.5 lakh tonnes of 2009-10 and 9.5-10

lakh bags in 2008-09. India is the largest Guar

producing country in the world contributing 80% in

total supplies followed by Pakistan with 10% share

in world production. If the IMD forecasts below

normal monsoon prices are bound to gain sharply in

the coming weeks and vice-a versa. In the medium

term (1month, prices would be dependent on the

overseas demand as well as on the monsoon

forecast. Prices are expected to trade in the range of

Rs. 2900-3070 per qtl levels in the medium term.

Last week Guarseed opened down but we

saw good buying coming at lower levels in

the remaining week and market even

broke its important resistance of 3040 and

sustained above it. For the next week

Guarseed has resistance at 3070 and

support at 2910.

For next week in Guar seed traders should

go for buying at lower levels strategy, if

Guar seed sustains above the level of 3070

we can see the level of 3140, and below

2910 it can touch the level of 2860.


Weak export demand Monsoon forecast


MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

3384

3187

3116

2990

2919

2793

2596



W e e k l y R e p o r t25th Apr - 29th Apr 2011


4/7

Daily

Chart

SOYABEAN (MAY)SOYBEAN SOARS ON GLOBAL CUES

The positive trend in Soybean futures market was

extended last week on extended short covering.

Fresh buying was also seen from speculators as the

prices fell sharply in previous week. After projection

of normal monsoon, traders bought futures

anticipating revival in demand for Soybean for

seeding purpose. Spot markets witnessed moderate

buying activity from few crushers. Moreover,

positive trend in international market on short

covering lent support to the Indian market. The

Soybean futures are projected to advance its gains

on continued buying interest supported by firm

international market. Domestic traders and

investors are likely to buy Soybean futures on

expectation of revival in demand for the produce. Arecent fall in the prices is attracting traders and

investors to buy Soybean futures. Limited supply of

the produce at major spot markets also lent support

to the futures market. Spot markets are witnessing

moderate buying activity from stockists and few

crushers. Steady demand for Soy meal in local

market is likely to render support to the Soybean

market. Market talk of meal export enquiry from

China is likely to lend support to the market. Indian

market is likely to move in line with firm

international market. CBOT Soybean futures ended

higher amid tight US ending stock. Weakness in

dollar lent support to the CBOT Soy market.

Last week Soybean was facing strong

support at 2400 levels and price was not

sustaining at lower levels and we saw

good buying coming in the remaining

week. For the next week Soybean has

resistance at 2470 and support at 2390.

Soybean is moving in a consolidation

phase on charts and one should look for

buying opportunities at lower levels, if

Soybean sustains above the level of 2470

we can see the level of 2510, and on the

downside if it sustains below the level of

2390 we can see Soybean at 2350 level.


Short covering Firm international market


MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

2551

2490

2465

2430

2405

2369

2309





5/7

Daily

Chart

CHANA (MAY)CHANA TUMBLES ON FRESH ARRIVALS

Increased fresh arrivals of Chana in the domesticmandi continued to pressurize Chana futures last

week. Forecast of monsoon to be normal this seasonby Indian Metrological Department released on 19thApril 2011 would be favorable for Kharif Pulses.Harvesting is at its peak in Rajasthan, the secondlargest Chana producing state in India after MP.According to the Third Advance Estimates on crop

released on Wednesday 6February, 2011 byagriculture ministry, Chana output is estimated at7.38 million tonnes (mt), compared to 7.48 mt in theprevious year and 7.37 million tonnes estimated inthe previous advance estimates. The output ofpulses, as a whole is forecasted to increase 17.9% to

17.29 million tonnes compared to 14.66 milliontonnes in the previous year and 16.51 million tonnesestimated in the second advance estimates.Production of Chana as well as Pulses in the currentcrop year is estimated higher at 7.38 million tonnesand 17.29 million tonnes respectively. Planning

Commission has estimated that the demand forpulses in the country during the period 2011-12 is19.11 million tonne. Fresh arrivals of Chana fromRajasthan stood around 80,000 bags as comparedto 40,000 bags the previous week. Globally,

Canadian Chickpeas output is expected to increaseduring 2010-11 to 1.28 lakh tonnes compared to0.76 lakh tonnes the previous year. Chana prices inthe intraday are expected to decline on account ofincrease in fresh arrivals in the domestic mandi

particularly from Rajasthan. In the short term, weexpect May contract to trade in the range of Rs.2300 2450 per qtl levels.

Chana was in a downtrend for most part of

the previous week and market was not

able to sustain at higher levels. Price is

facing stiff resistance at 2360 level and

market sustained below it for the whole

week. For the next week Chana has

resistance at 2410 and support at 2300.

Overall trend of Chana is bearish and one

should go for selling at higher levels

strategy in it. For the coming week if

Chana sustains below 2300 level we can

see it at 2260 and above 2410 we can

expect the level of 2445.


Fresh arrivals Selling pressure


MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

2468

2406

2371

2344

2309

2282

2220





6/7

WE EKLY MA RKET UP DATE

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPrevious

CloseOpen LowHigh Close

Qty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)*

* Turnover Till Friday

NCDEXJEERAUNJHA 20-MAY-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 15544 15590 1473215637 14832 45051 -712 18615 58,273.48

TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 8966 8900 86109040 8844 23945 -122 15195 18,885.24

GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 2974 2971 28643061 3045 673150 71 182630 157,431.51

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 8509 8450 82628722 8639 59680 14880130 43,183.73

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2383 2380 23182380 2336 431090 -47 159100 89,949.58

SoybeanSYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 RS/QUINTAL 2419 2413 2394.52455 2441 283820 22 193950 61,375.16

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 613.45 613.3 608.9630.5 629.1 557850 15.65 113920 313,449.27

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/QUINTAL 2716 2711 26822749 2743 455630 27 158980 104,178.83

COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1127 1120 11011159 1152 277870 25 95960 26,517.45

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JUL- 11 Gur RS/40KGS 962 966 963.5997 989.5 25020 27.5 12010 4,795.53

POTATO NCDEX Potato RS/QUINTAL 514.9 515 501518.6 511.4 37740 -3.5 26055 1,715.20

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-APR-11 Kapas RS./20KG 1039.7 1025 958.31029 993.1 4905 -46.6 1109 8,407.01

WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1189.8 1191.8 11871205 1192 27040 2.2 30070 2,925.38

MENTHA OIL MCX 30-APR-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1046.3 1050.7 10431104 1087.9 2902 41.6 1021 10870.74CARDAMOM MCX 14- MAY-11 Cardamom RS/KG 1130.2 1126.1 10581128.5 1062.4 3842 -67.8 1647 4133.19

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 26930 26990 2591027975 27938 44727 1008 10842 93,238.80

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 14832 -4.58

NCDEX PEPPER 27938 3.74

NCDEX TURMERIC 8844 -1.36

NCDEX GUARSEED 3045 2.39

NCDEX GUARGUM 8639 1.53

NCDEX CHANA 2336 -1.97

NCDEX SOYBEAN 2441 0.91

NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 629.1 2.55

NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2743 0.99

NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1152 2.22

NCDEX GUR 1050.5 6.38

NCDEX POTATO 511.4 -0.68

NCDEX KAPAS 993.1 -4.48

NCDEX WHEAT 1192 0.18

NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1087.9 3.98

NCDEX CARDAMOM 1062.4 -6.00


20-MAY-11




7/7

Weekly Pivots

Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Weekly Gainers

GUR 20-JUL-11 1050.5 6.38

MENTHA OIL 30-APR-11 1087.9 3.98

Weekly Losers

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

CARDAMOM 14- MAY-11 1062.4 -6.00

KAPAS 29-APR-11 993.1 -4.48

JEERA 20-MAY-11 14832 -4.58

JEERA (MAY) 16877.00 15972.00 15967.00 15067.00 14497.00 14162.00 13257.00

PEPPER (MAY) 31404.33 29339.33 28638.67 27274.33 26573.67 25209.33 23144.33

TURMERIC (MAY) 9691.33 9261.33 9052.67 8831.33 8622.67 8401.33 7971.33

GUARSEED (MAY) 3384.00 3187.00 3116.00 2990.00 2919.00 2793.00 2596.00

GUARSGUM (MAY) 9461.00 9001.00 8820.00 8541.00 8360.00 8081.00 7621.00

CHANA (MAY) 2468.67 2406.67 2371.33 2344.67 2309.33 2282.67 2220.67

SOYBEAN (MAY) 2551.17 2490.67 2465.83 2430.17 2405.33 2369.67 2309.17

REFINED SOYA OIL (MAY) 666.03 644.43 636.77 622.83 615.17 601.23 579.63

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (MAY) 1253.33 1195.33 1173.67 1137.33 1115.67 1079.33 1021.33

GUR (JUL) 1216.67 1125.17 1087.83 1033.67 996.33 942.17 850.67

POTATO (MAY) 545.53 527.93 519.67 510.33 502.07 492.73 475.13

KAPAS (APR) 1134.87 1064.17 1028.63 993.47 957.93 922.77 852.07

MENTHA OIL (APR) 1200.30 1139.30 1113.60 1078.30 1052.60 1017.30 956.30

CARDAMOM (MAY) 1223.97 1153.47 1107.93 1082.97 1037.43 1012.47 941.97

WE EKLY MA RKET UP DATE

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PEPPER 20-MAY-11 27938 3.74



MUSTARD (MAY) 2858.67 2791.67 2767.33 2724.67 2700.33 2657.67 2590.67

agri commodity reports for the week (25th - 29th april '11)

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