agent-based modelling and organisational structure dekker/la.ppt dekker/fincx dekker/fincy
TRANSCRIPT
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Agent-Based Modelling And Organisational Structure
http://www.acm.org/~dekker/LA.ppthttp://www.acm.org/~dekker/FINCXhttp://www.acm.org/~dekker/FINCYhttp://www.acm.org/~dekker/FINCZ
Dr. Tony Dekker ( [email protected] )
10 May 2002
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Introduction
• The FINC methodology for analysing organisational structures
• Do FINC metrics predict organisational performance?
• Two simulation experiments
• What happened
• Java implementation: how we did it
• Intelligent agents & behaviour hierarchy
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The FINC Methodology
IntN
• Force (Activity)• Intelligence (Information)• Network• C2 (Command and Control, Decision-Making)• Conceptual delays on network links need calibration
C2 C2
F F C2
F F
Int
N N
N
N
N
NN
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The FINC Metrics
• Information flow coefficient (tempo superiority) low is good
= average path length (intelligence -> force)
• Coordination coefficient (coordination superiority) low is good
= average path length (force -> force)
• Intelligence coefficient (information superiority) high is good
= SUM (relevant area * (intelligence quality / path length))
Effective quality
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The FINC Hypothesis
These metrics can predict organisational performance
i.e. better metrics mean the task gets done better
Test this using agent-based simulations
(later follow with real-world studies)
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Experiment 1: the scenario
• A “SCUD Hunt”
• 4 SCUD missiles (white)
• Information from 1 satellite and 4 surveillance aircraft (green)
• Information of varying quality: “ghost”missiles (grey)
• 4 strike aircraft (blue)
• Several headquarters (red)
• 8 possible architectures
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Experiment 1: the scenario
• A “SCUD Hunt”
• 4 SCUD missiles (white)
• Information from 1 satellite and 4 surveillance aircraft (green)
• Information of varying quality: “ghost”missiles (grey)
• 4 strike aircraft (blue)
• Several headquarters (red)
• 8 possible architectures
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Experiment 1: the metrics
coordination coefficient (coord)
Hierarchical
Centralised
information flow coefficient (info)
intelligence coefficient (intel)
Hierarchical with Info Sharing
NegotiationCentralised with Info Sharing
Distributed
Negotiation with Info Sharing
Distributed with Info Sharing
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Experiment 1: the results
Information superiority
is most important
Balance information & coordination superiority
Balance all three kinds of superiority
Balance information & tempo superiority
Poor Sensors Fair to Good Sensors
Slow Tempo
Moderate Tempo
Fast Tempo
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Experiment 2: the scenario
• Hierarchical organisation of 16 companies
• Try to locate 5 “targets” and manoeuvre forces towards them
• World contains obstacles (green)
• 3 planning strategies
• 4 possible architectures
• Varying communications quality
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Experiment 2: the results
95% of variance in performance predicted using only the intelligence coefficient
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Implementation: Intelligent Agents & Messages
• Network of agents can be any graph
• Agents co-operate on the same goal
• Agents pass messages
• Agents have internal map and path planner:
Need support at (1,9)
Found target at (3,7)
I am at (4,5)
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Implementation: Behaviour Hierarchy
Sim ple Long range
Sensor
Goto (point) Follow (agent)
Goal
Gun Radio jam m ing
W eapon
Behaviour
• Java Class Hierarchy
• Agents have “slots” for different behaviours
• Behaviour code manipulates agents internal map, etc.
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Implementation: Dynamic Instantiation
• New Behaviour classes produced regularly
• Initial agent network from CAVALIER network editing tool
• CAVALIER specifies a text string (class name plus arguments) for each agent “slot”
• E.g. “Followgoal, A, B, C, D” means move towards average of A, B, C, D positions
• Agent simulation environment instantiates behaviour objects using dynamic object creation in Java’s reflection package
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Summary
• FINC methodology for analysing organisational structures
• Do FINC metrics predict performance?
• Experiments 1 & 2
• Excellent prediction of performance in simulations
• Implementation: Intelligent Agents & Messages
• Behaviour Hierarchy & Dynamic Instantiation
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Any Questions?
?