wderuyter@unitingcarenswact.org.au ph 0417419238, June 2012 amended 10 August 2013 ©

Ageing Workforce – Challenges & Opportunities Précis:- To be successful is to be able to be effective in what you do by ensuring a balance between efficiency whilst remaining engaged with your client base and workforce. This is often reflected in a score that measures the quantitative and qualitative aspect of the organisations relationship with its customer/s. Examples are:-

Establish a process that brings together a small data set of relevant variables,

Distil these variables into a group or optimally a single numerical indicator,

Compare the relationship of these grouped variables within and between services that have been “categorised” in their peer group, as determined by a consistent measure of performance!

Establishing a relationship with peers that is comparable is an effective means of standardising practice, where variation within a 95% confidence interval is seen as opportunity. It is the relationship of these variables (combined as an algorithm) relative to a number of risk measures that determines acceptable risk & the cost of controlling it! Develop a suite of tools and templates:- An important aspect of managing costs is the

relationship between the service manager and their staff. Developing a suite of tools will assist the service manager who has a good understanding of their roster requirements in caring for residents. This is achieved by using a template to identify changes in roster patterns that increase efficiency; reduce cost whilst maintaining a quality service to the resident. Utilising a common process to calculate Full Time Equivalent FTE (Enclosed PowerPoint) allows the service manager to determine the staff required from a budgeted rostering pattern and the mix of staff used such as full time, part time and casual staff measured as a ratio.

Roster patterns can be captured in tools such as enclosed Projecting Roster Costs & FTE’s… Once you have agreed on a single numerical indicator that has been derived from optimal operational relationships as reflected by low level of adverse outcomes risk, you are in a position to extrapolate out from this single numerical indicator an optimal rostering pattern and ratios of staffing relative to workload. In summary the market we operate in as described p.2 creates both risk and opportunity. Developing a suite of tools for Service Managers will move from a reactive approach to managing our workforce to a proactive response to variation as described in “Adapting to Change1.”

1 De Ruyter W. Adapting to Change 18-3-12 Revised 11-5-12

Copyright - Walter de Ruyter

Linking UC Ageing Communities(Example)

95% Confidence Interval C1Peer Yr 03-04 Medical

1

2

3

4

5

Mo

dera

ted

NH

PP

D

NHPPD Moderated 2.50 2.63 2.45 3.30 3.76

Mean 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.93

Medical33 beds-

Wombat

2-

Dolphin

3-

Kangaro

5-

Kookabu

8-

Possum

95% Confidence Interval C1Peer Yr 03-04 - Children

3

8

13

18

Mo

dera

ted

NH

PE

C

NHPPD Moderated 10.89 5.64 20.47 18.66

Mean 13.92 13.92 13.92 13.92 13.92 13.92

Children 1-Wombat2-

Kangaroo

3-

Kookaburr5-Possum

Develop a profile for each community that measures, price,share of market and quality indicators within the 95% confidence interval. Definition If the procedure for computing a 95% confidence interval is used over and over, 95% of the time the interval will contain the true parameter. http://frank.itlab.us/datamodel/node39.html

For example You’re consistent in comparing a number of measures (variables) between services and the results fall within the red section of the bell curve you can be confident the services are similar and hence you can be confident in comparing results.

wderuyter@unitingcarenswact.org.au ph 0417419238, June 2012 amended 10 August 2013 ©

The market we operate in:- ‘2012 is the first year where more people are retiring from the workforce than school leavers entering the workforce!’2 By 2018 their will be more Australians aged over sixty than less than sixty years of age creating increased pressure on care services.

Narrative:-; The graph from SageCare3 demonstrates the reduction of public sector workers including nurses. Overlaying this graph is the statistic that in 2012, 20,000 nurses are urgently required in Aged Care4. The magnitude of adequately staffing aged care services was put into context (2007) by Reba Meagher Former NSW Health Minister…“Health accounts 30% of the NSW budget. By the year 2037 it will consume 100% of the budget” People over the age of 65 use

health services at four time the rate that people under the age of 65. Over the next twenty years to 2030, the greatest increase in the use of hospital beds will be PADP clients many of whom are residents of aged care facilities. The impact of this increasing demand is pushing care traditionally managed in hospitals to aged care settings. An example is the Transitional Aged Care program. Further anecdotal impacts are the increased number of high care residents in low care facilties with ageing in place, requiring an increase in skilled aged care workers such as Registered Nurses. The Australian population is now ageing relatively rapidly, albeit from a lower base age than many other countries. Currently, in Australia there are 2.5 million older people, by which is meant those 70 years of age and older. Over the next four decades, the number of older people will increase by 164.6 per cent to 6.7 million. The rate of increase will be highest in the next two decades. By 2022–23, there will be 4.7 million older people in Australia5. The change in the profile of an ageing workforce, in conjunction with the ageing community creates an impetus for organisations to develop sustainable workforce strategies.

2 Q&A ABC 8-5-12. Minister Ageing & Mental Health Mark Butler

3 “In 2005 more than 18,000 public sector workers aged 45+ were surveyed about their plans to retire… The retirement intentions survey

found the first of several consecutive waves of retirement from the public sector had commenced, with 57% of the then workforce planning to retire by 2015 (of this group 27% planned to retire by 2010 & 30% planned to retire in the decade to 2015) www.sagecentre.nsw.gov.au/ 4 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/careers/shortage-of-nurses-critical/story-fn717l4s-1226359218437

There was also disappointment about the lack of any policy – and associated funding – to address the expected shortfall of 110,000 nurses across Australia by 2025, as a Health Workforce Australia report predicted less than two weeks ago. (ACSA National Report 9 May 2012) 5 http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/E0CC456146A997ACCA257494007D9B55/$File/chapter5.pdf

South Eastern Region

Labour Market Decline

a Challenge for Aged Care Sageco NSW Health projection 2007

Ref:- http://www.sagecentre.nsw.gov.au/downloads/DADHC%20Publication%20-%20Managers.pdf

20,000 Shortfall in

Aged Care Nurses