african livestock futures: realizing the potential of livestock for poverty alleviation, food...

African Livestock Futures: Realizing the poten9al of livestock for poverty allevia9on, food security and the environment

AU-‐IBAR – 17 SEPTEMBER 2014

2

–  Background

–  Methods –  The models

–  The scenarios

–  Key findings

–  Policy recommendations

Structure of the presentation

3

–  Study commissioned by the Special Representative to the UN Secretary General on Food Security and Nutrition (David Nabarro)

–  Funding from USAID

Background

4

–  Mario Herrero (CSIRO, Lead author)

–  Petr Havlik, Amanda Palazzo and Hugo Valin (IIASA)

–  John McIntire (ILRI)

The authors

5

–  Berhe Tekola, Juan Lubroth and Henning Steinfeld (FAO)

–  Kazuaki Megayishima (WHO)

–  Bernard Vallat and Alain Dehove (OIE)

–  Jimmy Smith (ILRI)

–  Francois Legall (World Bank)

–  Dennis Carroll, August Pabst and Joyce Turk (USAID)

–  Sam Thevasagayam (BMGF)

–  Siwa Msangi (IFPRI)

Steering committee and reviewers

6

–  How could we enhance the contribution of African livestock systems to sustainably meet the future demand for livestock products?

–  What would be the consequences of different socio-economic development scenarios?

–  Can competitiveness be increased?

–  What would be the risks?

–  What would be key policies?

The central questions

Methods

GLOBIOM: Global Biosphere Management Model

Par9al equilibrium model: Agriculture, Forestry, Bioenergy

8

DEMAND

SUPPLY

Presenta3on 3tle | Presenter name 9 |

Shared Socio-‐Economic Pathways Scenarios

SSP scenarios: the basics

Some key inputs

Key findings

Milk consump3on likely to triple in East Africa Overall, poultry consump3on exhibits the highest rates of growth throughout SSA


Milk consump3on likely to triple in East Africa Overall, poultry consump3on exhibits the highest rates of growth throughout SSA The consump3on of meat from monogastrics will exceeed red meat consump3on by 2030 in most sub-‐regions of SSA

Dietary shiTs in full swing!

19 |


Sustainable intensifica3on will be key to elicit a produc3on response in most regions…

21

–  Sustainable intensification (SSP1): > 5-6%/yr

–  Business as usual (SSP2): 2-3%/yr

–  Fragmentation scenario: 1.5-2.5%yr

–  Almost similar numbers of animals

–  Largest differences explained by increases in yield

Rates of growth of livestock production

24

Kenyan milk yield average: 600 kg/lactation

In 20 years at 6%/yr growth rate: 1815 kg/lactation

We need to triple milk yields to be in the game!

The same applies to monogastrics! = most growth coming from larger operations

What does this really mean?

Policy recommenda3ons

31

–  Invest in the sustainable intensification of African livestock systems (need to achieve rates of annual growth in productivity of around 6% per year)

–  Towards an economic incentives package?

–  Interest free credit

–  Reduced taxes on inputs

–  Preferential conditions of investment for certain types of systems

–  Some scope to increase intensive monogastric production

Policy recommendations

32

–  Invest in the provision of feeds (feed markets, improved pasture species, etc)

–  Invest in land use planning

–  Regulate externalities of intensification

–  Protect smallholders and pastoralists: they can contribute!

–  Invest in animal health research

–  Reduce environmental impacts

Policy recommendations

Africa’s challenges are daun9ng but there are posi9ve signs of innova9on ....

•  Of the 20 countries worldwide that had more than 10% of adults using mobile phone banking, 15 were in Africa .

•  In Kenya, 68% of adults used mobile banking in 2011

Presenta3on 3tle | Presenter name |

§ hTp://www.economist.com/node/21553510

Innova3on comes in surprising ways

•  Sustainably building African ins3tu3ons and science capability is the main game

Thank you Mario Herrero Chief Research Scien3st

Agriculture Flagship

e [email protected]

african livestock futures: realizing the potential of livestock for poverty alleviation, food...

Science