aeo2015 – key trends and changes for the residential...

www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

AEO2015 – key trends and changes for

the residential sector

For

13th Annual Energy Forecasters Meeting

May 6, 2015 | Baltimore, Maryland

By

Erin Boedecker, Team Leader

Buildings Energy Consumption & Efficiency Analysis

Overview

Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting

Baltimore, May 6, 2015 2

• Changes in release cycles

• What’s new

• Highlights – the big picture

• EFG favorites – residential results

• Residential PV outlook

AEO2015 is a shorter edition



2014 2015

International

Energy

Outlook

Shorter Edition in mid 2014:

• focus on the liquids projection

as used in AEO2014

• summary tables

• short analysis

Full Edition in the spring fall

Annual

Energy

Outlook

Full Edition in the spring:

• analysis of energy issues

• many alternative scenarios

Shorter Edition in late 2014 or early

2015:

• Reference

• Low / High Economic Growth

• Low / High Oil Price cases

• short discussions

AEO2015 includes impacts from changes in residential

assumptions, even in “shorter” edition



• End-use technology characterizations

• Federal standards

• PV costs and residential niches

• Typical historical updates

– energy consumption

– weather

– DG installed capacity

• Added capability for subsidy modeling and tracking

End-use technology characterization update



• Residential space heating equipment, space cooling equipment, water heaters, refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, clothes washers, clothes dryers

• Contract report from Leidos/Navigant is available online:http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/

Technology update example:

residential top-loading clothes washers



Federal standards



• furnace fans: effective 2019

• external power supplies: effective 2016

• set-top boxes (voluntary agreement): effective 2014 (tier 1), 2017 (tier 2)

Standard leads to expected decline in furnace fan consumption



0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2015

residential electricity consumption for furnace fansquadrillion Btu

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and Annual Energy Outlook 2014

History Projections2013

AEO2014

AEO2015 shows slower near-term household growth



90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

residential households, millions of units


AEO2015

AEO2014

History Projections2013

≈ 0

AEO2015 electricity prices are slightly higher than in AEO2014



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

electricity

natural gas

AEO2014

AEO2015

AEO2015

AEO2014

2013

2013$ per million Btu


Declining residential use of other fuels offsets growth in

electricity consumption



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Electricity

Natural gas

Other Propane Distillate

ProjectionsHistory 2013

residential delivered consumption by fuel

quadrillion Btu

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2015

Household energy intensity declines for most end uses



residential delivered energy intensitymillion Btu per household


0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Computers andrelated equipment

TVs andset-top boxes

Cooking

Laundry anddishwashing

Refrigeratorsand freezers

Lighting

MELs andother end-uses

Water Heating

Heating, cooling,and ventilation 2040

2013

Intensities increase for miscellaneous electric loads



3.12.5

2.41.9

1.71.51.5

1.11.11.11.01.0

0.70.50.5

0.20.2

0.0-0.3

-0.7-1.0

-1.3-1.7

-2.0-2.3

-2.9-2.9-3.0

-5.0-6.5

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0

Security SystemsPortable Spas

Home TheatersElectric OtherSet-top Boxes

Space CoolingCoffee MakersRechargeables

Ceiling Fans Cooking

Microwaves Dishwashers 1/ Clothes Dryers

DehumidifiersAll uses

Water HeatingPool Heaters

RefrigerationTVs

Freezers Space Heating Furnace Fans

Monitors Clothes Washers 1/

Network EquipmentVideo Game Consoles

LightingLaptops

Desktop PCsDVD Players

residential electricity consumption, average annual percent change 2013-2040


households (0.8% per year)

Miscellaneous uses also contribute most to sales growth



change in annual residential electricity sales, 2013-2040

billion kilowatthours


204

60

18

13

10

9

-4

-20

-94

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250

Other Uses

Heating, cooling, and ventilation

Laundry and dishwashing

Televisions and Related Equipment

Cooking

Water Heating

Refrigerators and freezers

Computers and Related Equipment

Lighting

DG updates include PV costs and residential

niches



• PV costs updated

– draft technology update shows lower inverter costs affecting both installed capital cost and maintenance cost for replacement

– results in more PV adoption

• Residential niches updated for 2009 RECS and marginal price approach

– confidential RECS data with zip codes used to map solar insolation for more accurate representation of solar resource

– monthly electric bills used to develop marginal electricity price estimates

– marginal prices higher than average prices in some areas but not all

Reduction in inverter costs drives down distributed PV costs

relative to AEO2014



Average Generating Capacity (kilowattDC)

AEO2014 InstalledCapital Cost

(2014$ per kilowattDC)

AEO2015 Installed Capital Cost

(2014$ per kilowattDC)

Residential

2012 4 $5,856 $5,856

2015 4 $4,602 $4,233

2025 5 $3,337 $3,070

2035 5 $3,153 $2,900

AEO2015 distributed PV adoption spurred by lower cost

assumptions and higher electricity prices than in AEO2014



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

History Projections

AEO2014

AEO2015

2013

net summer residential solar capacity

gigawatts


For more information



U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Bonus slides



Intensities increase for miscellaneous electric loads



3.12.5

2.41.9

1.71.51.5

1.11.11.11.01.0

0.70.50.5

0.20.2

0.0-0.3

-0.7-1.0

-1.3-1.7

-2.0-2.3

-2.9-2.9-3.0

-5.0-6.5

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0

Security SystemsPortable Spas

Home TheatersElectric OtherSet-top Boxes

Space CoolingCoffee MakersRechargeables

Ceiling Fans Cooking

Microwaves Dishwashers 1/ Clothes Dryers

DehumidifiersAll uses

Water HeatingPool Heaters

RefrigerationTVs

Freezers Space Heating Furnace Fans

Monitors Clothes Washers 1/

Network EquipmentVideo Game Consoles

LightingLaptops

Desktop PCsDVD Players



households (0.8% per year)

AEO2014 residential electricity growth for comparison





3.42.62.6

2.31.9

1.71.4

1.21.21.1

0.80.8

0.70.6

0.50.50.5

0.30.3

-0.1-0.1

-0.3-0.4

-1.2-1.7

-2.4-2.5

-2.6-2.9

-4.9-6.4

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0

SecuritySysSpas

Home TheaterElectric Other

SetTopBoxCoffeeMaker

CoolingRechargeable

MicrowaveCooking

DryerFurnaceFans

AllUsesDishWash

DehumidifierHeating

HotWaterRefrigerator

Pool HeatersFreezer

SecHeatingCeilingFan

TVClothesWash

MonitorsNetwork Eq

LaptopVideoGame

LightingDesktop PC

DVD households (0.8% per year)

aeo2015 – key trends and changes for the residential...

Documents