advanced hmi autotechinsider white paper 11 10

The Advanced User Interface – Essential for the Safe and Connected Car

AutoTechinsider LLC White Paper November 2010

Dave McNamara -‐ Autotechinsder LLC November 8, 2010 1

The Automotive UI – Strategic to the Brand

The auto industry is getting a “bum wrap”, as they say. Every article that we have read over the last few years characterized our industry as conventional, conservative or “old-school”, that is, resistive to adapting new ideas. Not true – our auto industry is undergoing tremendous change and is embracing technologies to produce a connected, green and safer car. As Charles Dickens said in the Tale of Two Cities, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” The US auto industry is emerging from the worst of financial times, the worst crisis it has faced since the depression. Fortunately, our Industry has embraced technologies that will produce the “best” possible driving experience for the driving pubic. The Ford Motor Company is held up as the shining example of embracing change with SYNC as the marquee product. Ford is selling more cars with compelling technology and what is termed the signature-branded User Interface (UI). “Ford SYNC has shown there is a demand for advanced UIs,” according to Joe Kennedy, president of Pandora. Ford was the first OEM to announce Internet radio in the car!

Customers crave new features, especially those related to entertainment. These new features are now called ‘applications’ because they work on various computing or smart phone platforms and in various cars. The Apple app store is the fastest growing enterprise. On January 16, 2009, Apple announced that 500 million apps had been downloaded; the billionth application was downloaded only four months later.1 Ford announced at the January 2010 Consumer Electronics Show that a SYNC car would support downloadable apps stores. Other OEMs are quickly responding, ushering in the best of times for the driving public.

1 http://www.apple.com/ca/press/2009_04/app_store.html




The advanced UI is strategic to getting more features/functions in the car. Autotechinsider LLC has quantified the UI space as a large and growing business. We conducted a recent study for Telematics Update Business Intelligence, which quantified a $1.8 Billion market in 2013 for displays, software, and controls - switches/haptics. The overall HMI revenue with a CAGR of about 14% (2009-2016) is significant. New hardware components will be added to allow drivers and passengers to access new features, especially connected vehicle services. HMI components are estimated at about 2-3% of overall total ADAS and infotainment costs, which are growing at about a 7–8% annual rate. In conclusion, growth not de-contenting of vehicles can be expected. The HMI is the all- important means to bring new content into the vehicle. Hence, the HMI is strategic and worthy of investment as a new, affordable robust technology becomes available.

The size of the HMI Opportunity




If this is not enough, safety systems, specifically Diver Assistance Systems (DAS), are the fastest growing auto elecs. segment, with ACC and side vision as the vanguard.i In the past, ABS, seat belts and airbags were high safety wants. Today, OEMs are positioning DAS especially on luxury vehicles as a key product differentiator. On top of this new infrastructure based safety features, based on Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) or I2V will show up in cars in the 2014-17 time frame. As shown in the chart on the next page, these new safety features will have significant impact on the automotive UI. Please visit the IntelliDriveSM website, www.intelidrive.org, to see the videos of Intersection collision warning/mitigation features to see first how drivers will benefit.ii The goal in mind is eventually autonomous driving or cooperative driving. The Volvo City Driving feature, stop-and-go ACC is a forerunner of new “autonomous driving” to allow hands off the wheel and foot off the accelerator driving under certain conditions.iii It’s easy to envision stop-and-go ACC evolving into “Platooning” – the driver relies on the system for low speed driving, joining a group of vehicles travelling faster than the “congestion” speed. Today, new ADAS systems require the driver to be fully responsible for mitigating any collision, e.g. blind spot detection and lane departure. Autonomous driving is a ways off, therefore, capable HMIs will be needed to support all this new information presented to the driver.




As shown below new features/functions, such as forward collision, night vision, intersection safety, do not pass, etc. will have a major design impact on the UI requiring new technologies. For example, several of the HMI experts we interviewed indicated the need for Heads-Up displays (HUDs) as the means to get new safe treated information into the car. Even though HMI experts agree auditory alerts, especially the “alarm bell” type get our attention, we need a visual display in the field of view with the critical information as to the nature of the alert.

The Impact of new features/functions on the automotive HMI




The basis of this article is the author’s work to compile a comprehensive report for Telematics Update Business Intelligence, titled “The Automotive User Interface the Key Brand Differentiator”.iv In-depth interviews with more than 30 experts in the U.S. and Europe were conducted and 75 users and decision makers were surveyed. These industry leaders agreed on the strategic importance of the HMI and that their customers wanted both new safety and connectivity features! OEMs are learning from Apple and the CE industry to be user-experience focused versus developing task-centric UIs. Great user experiences are clearly defined by the iPhone and iPod, according to the Telematics Update survey and expert interviews. “Apple has showed us that there is a market for the better user interface, They took complex devices and made them simple – hiding the complexity”, according to Rod MacKenzie ITS-America’s CTO. What translates well from the CE world to the automotive word is still a subject of debate, however. Defining the user experience for the car means including a wide range of features and functions, encompassing safety, infotainment, and now the use of devices outside the car (remote control apps, for example). The experts described to us why the advanced UI is important, as: 1. A brand differentiator, overall the car is easier to use and safer than the competition 2. An enabler of valued safety features/functions: the need to integrate new DAS features

and deal with infotainment-related distraction issues 3. Improved time-to-market with new features; the UI has now become a constraint, new

adaptable platforms and tools are needed 4. A response to consumer demand - affordable, capable UIs are moving downscale

because consumers want them 5. A response to the Consumer Electronics (CE) industry. The CE industry drives demand,

but doesn’t design with driving in mind and can’t do integration at the car level. OEMs need to take control and build a capable UI platform.

The HMI Development Process is the Key Enabler OEMs think they are best at designing the UI with driving as the primary task. “The CE industry doesn’t design with driving in mind” explains why the industry is viewed as slow and conservative. The OEM HMI development process is resource and time consuming. The process is geared to minimize the risk of inappropriate customer “field testing” and importantly distraction. But, everyone today agrees that safety features and connectivity sell cars. How to get all these features/functions in the car while meeting the highest quality, reliability and affordability? The OEMs and Suppliers interviewed and our on-line survey described the “best-in-class” development process as keeping these goals in mind: 74.0% of respondents listed easy-to-use/simple 12.3% of respondents listed safe to use 5.5%of respondents listed aesthetics/attractiveness 2.7%of respondents listed cost value




The industry as a first step has participated in government and industry cooperative efforts as the means to understand key safety related problems .The Collision Avoidance Metrics Partnership (CAMP) is the key industry effort, in collaboration with NHTSA and the USDOT; to develop an understanding on how new safety features/functions should work. v CAMP, created by GM and Ford in 1995 has worked to resolve the key pre-competitive issues needed for deployment of these new safety features. OEMs will take these learnings to develop executions consistent with their brands and vehicle/interior architectures. Also, the Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety Systems (IVBSS), the five-year cooperative research project, combined several DAS features/functions (forward collision, lane departure, lane change, and curve speed warning) into an integrated system. The concern for ease and simple to use applies to safety and connectivity features/functions alike. The key question is how well do safety features work, the class of features that interact directly with the driver through the senses and rely on the driver to take action. Do these new safety have “value”, in the sense of reducing accidents with out negative consequences? Relative to HMI development we ask a different set of questions, how effective is the “alert” that is being understood and appropriately acted on. In the case of infotainment features, that we use everyday of an entertainment (Pandora) and information (navigation with traffic) related, distraction is the key issue. As mentioned, designing safe treated features/functions has a very different set of considerations. The use of vehicle simulators has significantly increased the understanding of alerts and warnings, because realistic driving scenarios can be created to measure response without putting anyone at risk. Ford, Toyota, GM, and other OEMs and suppliers have vehicle simulators and have used them to test possible warning solutions. Many of these experiments have been done in collaboration with NHTSA, specifically with CAMP. The naturalistic studies focused on front collision, blind spot, lane change, curve speed, and backup-warning systems. The systems that made use of instrument cluster based displays, heads-up displays, haptic seats, and a variety of audible warnings. Results showed that the most effective solutions use warnings that appropriately communicate urgency and combine sensory alerts. Basically, haptic warnings must be intuitively related to event, visual warnings must be clearly seen without having to look down, and the audible warnings must be of a frequency that is clearly heard by people of all ages.




To make these warning systems truly useful for protecting people and saving lives, the system that detects the problem condition (and generates a warning) must have a high degree of accuracy, and must not generate false positives. If drivers lose confidence in warning systems, they will disregard the warning and render it useless. Basically, the accuracy and dependability of the detection system is as important as the effectiveness of the warning itself. CAMP has identified these criteria for designing displays, the combination of visual and auditory alerts: vi 1. get attention (auditory best) 2. convey urgency (auditory best) 3. be annoying (combination) 4. be understandable (visual best) 5. be effective at indicating where the collision is (visual best) 6. be effective about what to do (visual best) 7. overall utility.vii The OEMs surveyed all have formal design processes that are an intimate part of their overall vehicle design process. This implies that design guidelines must be met and verified before proceeding. Several tier ones also have a formal process around capturing customer and technology trends and verifying requirements. Some of those surveyed indicated that they are currently creating a disciplined HMI process. Regardless of whether the OEM directs and specifies all or some of the HMI development process, these are the critical success factors:

Human factors: professionals who are knowledgeable and experienced Strong internal design guidelines Continuous benchmarking of the competition Participation in key consortiums Generic usability or naturalistic studies to understand driver behavior A formal software development process: involving requirements capture On-going product improvement through social networks: including customer and

developer involvement




It is important to identify the tier two suppliers who are focused on providing platforms and tool sets for developing advanced UIs. The three that were often mentioned in our interviews were Altia, Elektrobit, and MECEL who are revolutionizing UI design, providing software tools and collaborative approaches. To help us visualize the process, the graphic below outlines a generic process for creating an infotainment system with a touch screen. The starting points for this process are well thought-out use cases.




Advanced UIs – The Future Safe and Connected Car We asked the experts (in our interviews and on-line survey) who are the current leaders, what technologies and processes do they employ (previously discussed) and what will the future UI look like (with 2015 in view). You will have to read the full 100-page report because of the brevity of this article, but here are selected findings:

The multi-modal UI as represented by the Audi A8 received high marks. Multi-modal means the use of large displays, easy to reach controls/steering wheel controls supplemented by voice.

The use of large panel displays in the cluster and center stack, especially. Haptics will largely be a luxury vehicle application, as will be OLEDs. As one expert said, “It’s all about getting larger, more capable displays in the cars.” According to another expert, “Affordability is the issue relative to application.” Volume application, expected around 2015 is needed in HUDs and large cluster LCDs before wide adoption in mid-range and smaller cars. The 2010 Range Rover with the 12inch LCD and the Lexus with the use of super bright OLEDs are showing us the future.




Lexus OLED for Navigation Display

2010 Range Rover LCD Display Cluster




Haptics as represented by the new BMW 5-series has arrived and significantly improved i-Drive such that it received a best-in-class rating. Also, surprisingly many think haptics will relegate voice recognition to complex data entry tasks (e.g. Music search implemented in Ford SYNC).

OEMs such as Mercedes are showing publically implementations of new collision

warning features see below. Challenges remain on how these new functions associated with curve speed warning and intersection safety will be integrated in the car. For this reason, the USDOT proposed a safety pilot of 1000 or so vehicles in the 2011-2012 time frame, as well as continuing CAMP’s work.viii

Surprising the resurgence of HUDs is expected, as several experts indicated that HUDs are now affordable and more importantly packageable. HUDs are a new display surface, a way to get important information into the car! Our report forecasted significant growth in HUD applications in the 2013-2015 tine frame




The year 2015 will be an important one for the auto industry and for the advancement of the auto UI. The U.S. auto industry is expected to have restructured and largely recovered by 2015, returning to the 1976–2020 trend line of about 16 million vehicles sold per yearix. The vehicle of 2015 will be safe and connected, built on open, green, and energy-efficient platforms. We think the new technological trends include: • Significant penetration of DAS features augmented by IntelliDrive SM features,

cooperative driving systems introduced • Connected car technologies will be available on all vehicle types, including mid-range

and lower-end vehicles, with UIs designed to be safe, affordable, easy to use, and aligned with brand identity.

• Best-practice HMI development process and associated tool sets adopted • The strongest brands and suppliers will be the winners. They are best placed to

respond to customer demands and have already adopted advanced UIs




In conclusion, below are two contrasting views of the advanced UI or cockpit of the 2015 vehicle. The windscreen display is “over-the-top” but recognizes the need for a new display surface. We agree expanded but a more judicious use of HUDs. The graphic on the next page is what we summarized from what the experts told us, the “multi-modal” UI.

Wired Magazine – the windshield is the display




The 2105 Advanced UI

Adoption of the advance UI will be steady and will require significant “value engineering” to achieve the right performance with quality and affordability. We expect governments to encourage and accelerate deployment through regulatory actions. For example in the US we expect NHTSA to use New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) to encourage OEMs to build safer vehicles and consumers to buy them. Important to the development of new active safety products, NHTSA has added new rating categories to NCAP. The current focus on “crash worthiness” testing to change to “crash avoidance” testing.




The HMI is indeed strategic as we enter the “best of times”, as our cars become safer and connected. We just need to design easy to use and effective UIs to accommodate more features/functions and at the same time deal with driver distraction. Fortunately, our former “old-school” auto industry is up to these challenges. The unfortunate alternative is de-contenting, what the driving public doesn’t want!! i Frost and Sullivan 2008 market reports ii http://www.intellidriveusa.org/library/videos/ica.php iii 2009 New York Auto Show: Volvo XC60 with City Safety forerunner of Platooning iv http://www.telematicsupdate.com/human-‐machine-‐interface-‐report/index.html v VEHICLE SAFETY COMMUNICATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES, Michael Shulman Ford Motor Company United States Richard Deering General Motors Corporation United States Paper Number 07-‐0010 vi NHTSA – CAMP Annual Report vii http://www.nhtsa.gov/people/injury/research/pub/acas/Ch3-‐10.htm viii The USDOT has recently announced that a site will be chosen to launch this ―safety pilotǁ‖ of V2V safety applications, thousand of vehicles will be involved • the pilot goals presented at a recent USDOT workshop were to support the 2013 Regulatory V2V Decision with field data and drive public awareness & acceptance. • Expect this project to be a launched in 2011 running through 2012 as a key input to federal rulemaking. ix According to the Center for Automotive Research

advanced hmi autotechinsider white paper 11 10

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