administrative data at statistics canada – current uses and the way forward 27 th voorburg group...

Administrative Data at Statistics Canada – Current Uses and the Way Forward

27th Voorburg Group MeetingWarsaw, Poland

André LorangerOctober 4, 2012

Outline

23-04-19Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada2

Introduction Tax Data

• Goods and Service Tax (GST)

• Annual Tax

Increased use of GST data• Monthly Food Services Survey

• Quarterly Services Indicators

Increased use of Annual Tax data Summary and Future Work

Introduction


Statistics Canada has a long history of using administrative data• Direct tabulation – Trade statistics

• Frame maintenance – Business Register

• Survey evaluation – Data confrontation

More recently, in business surveys program• Take none estimation

• ‘Replacing’ survey data

Introduction, cont.

Benefits realized• Reduced collection costs

• Increased data quality

• Reduction of respondent burden

Current uses somewhat constrained until recently

Will discuss two recent methodologies that significantly increase use of tax data and some future uses


Tax Data

Tax data collected by Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA)• Monthly Goods and Services Tax (GST) data

• Annual tax (T1 and T2) data

Goal of CRA is non-statistical, so very little verification of data performed

Statistics Canada receives data from CRA and ‘processes’ the data


Tax Data – GST

A tax of 5% levied on all goods and services• Similar to Value Added Tax in other countries

Depending on size of business, data remitted monthly, quarterly or annually

Data provided to Statistics Canada 7 to 8 weeks after reference month

Processing at Statistics Canada comprises outlier detection, imputation and calendarization


Tax Data – GST, cont. Database containing monthly sales for all

businesses produced GST data used by three mission critical monthly

surveys Survey data ‘replaced’ by GST data for a portion

of ‘simple’ units and for take none• Model needed to account for conceptual differences

and timeliness issues Once replaced, modified GST data treated as

survey data


Tax data – GST, cont.


Survey

Tax Data

TA

TS

TN

ii xy ̂

Note: Simples only

Tax data – Annual tax

Two types:• T1 – Unincorporated businesses (individuals)• T2 – Incorporated businesses

For T1, have electronic filers (~80% of universe) plus 2 variables for entire universe• Produce calibrated estimates at aggregated levels

For T2, Statistics Canada receives universe from CRA ‘Processing’ done at Statistics Canada (outlier

detection, imputation, allocation to details…)


Tax data – Annual, cont.

T2 data used in Unified Enterprise Survey (UES) The UES

• Consists of over 60 annual business surveys

• Uses common concepts and methodology

• Collects financial and non-financial data

T2 information linked to survey variables through COA (financial variables only)• No model needed


Tax data – Annual, cont.

T2 information used to replace survey data for a portion of simple units and take none units

Several different implementations• 55% of sampled simples replaced

• 100% of simples replaced (financial data). Sample for non-financial data

• 100% of non-sampled simples replaced. Non-financial estimates calibrated


Tax data – Annual, cont


TS

TA

ii xy

TN

TS

TA

ii xy

TN

Survey Tax Data

Increased use of GST data

Current use of GST data restricted due to operational constraints• Use of existing systems

• Trust in tax data

Two sub-annual surveys recently redesigned/developed• Opportunity to significantly increase use of GST data

Monthly Food Services Survey (MFSS) Quarterly Services Indicators (QSI)


Increased use of GST data – MFSS


Estimates sales and number of locations of restaurants, caterers and drinking places

Combines typical business survey design with a strategy that takes full advantage of tax data

In certain strata, use GST data as auxiliary data for simple businesses and typical survey for complex ones• Estimate based on small sample of simples improved

by use of tax data

In other strata, use typical survey design

Increased use of GST data – MFSS, cont.

GST data used as auxiliary data for:• ~25,000 businesses based on sample of ~500 for

model building

• ~40,000 businesses in take none

Resulted in• Significant improvement in precision for sample of

~500 units

• Reduction in respondent burden


Increased use of GST data – QSI Need to improve availability of sub-annual

services industries data Goals of QSI

• Produce quarter-to-quarter movements

Levels less important ?• Economical

GST data used for all simple businesses, with traditional survey of complex ones• No sample of simple businesses to build model

Universe of simple businesses defined by GST data


Increased use of GST data – Challenges


Business status• Deaths in GST data identified based on remittance or not• MFSS based on business register, so not severely affected by deaths in GST data• QSI based on GST data, so estimates affected by deaths in GST data

Increased use of GST data – Challenges, cont. Updating of GST data

• Monthly updates received from CRA

▫ Late remittances and corrections▫ Full processing performed to produce another ‘vintage’ of

data for particular reference month.− Better information?

• Both MFSS and QSI publish revised estimates

▫ Some of the revision coming from ‘reprocessed’ GST data (imputation and calendarization)

▫ Not a true reflection of economy


Increased use of Annual Tax Data

UES is now over ten years old and is starting to show its age

A major redesign is being planned and increasing the use of tax data is one goal

One possible option• Complex businesses continue to be surveyed

▫ Covers both financial and non-financial data▫ ‘Optimized’ for financial data


Increased use of Annual Tax Data, cont.


• For simple businesses, tax data becomes source of financial information

Can tax be used for small complex businesses?• Survey simple businesses only to respond to specific

program/data needs

Commodities for example

‘Optimized’ for data needs since financial information coming from tax data



• For simple businesses, tax data becomes source of financial information

Can tax be used for small complex businesses?• Survey simple businesses only to respond to specific

program/data needs

Commodities for example

‘Optimized’ for data needs since financial information coming from tax data



Complex

TA TS

TN

SimpleTax Data

Full questionnaire (financial and commodities)

Commodities only

Increased use of Annual Tax Data - Challenges


Business status and industry coding• Many updates come from survey feedback

• Nature of business report?

Combine with commodity questions?• Close co-operation with CRA to obtain this

information?

Acceptance by users• Possible break in series

Summary and Future Work


Use of GST data in MFSS and QSI step in right direction but still some challenges

Plans discussed to increase use of annual tax data but some work still to do

Statistics Canada also looking at broadening and deepening use of tax data• Tax schedules

• Uses outside business survey program


Discussion

administrative data at statistics canada – current uses and the way forward 27 th voorburg group...

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