AdcircLite-NCRapid computation of storm surge and

waves for NC coastal waters

Brian BlantonRenaissance Computing Institute/UNC Chapel Hill

Jesse Bikman, MS CandidateDepartment of Marine Sciences, UNC Chapel Hill

Alexander Taflanidis, Andrew Kennedy University of Notre Dame

Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences

Why rapid computation?• Urgent forecasting needed before disaster strikes• Forecast simulations are resource intensive, requiring 2.5 - 3

hours computation time on 192 processor systems• Planners/emergency managers need forecast information as

quickly as possible• AdcircLite-NC provides storm surge and wave forecasts at

response nodes by implementing UND surface response method

[Show map with response nodes + screenshot of NC-CERA]

Phased Evacuation Timeline for Chatham (GA) Emergency Management Agency

Theoretical probabilities for a direct hit at a given location over time

Eye of storm location Probability72 hours out 10%48 hours out 12 – 18%36 hours out 20 – 25%24 hours out 35 – 45%12 hours out 60 – 70%

Project goals and expected resultsTask 1. Preliminary data and testing/calibration of UNDInterpolator

– Establish response node evaluation dataset– [Assemble historical record of high water marks from tide gauge records?]– Hindcast hurricanes such as Fran and Isabel

Task 2. Expand to include wave characteristics– Expand UNDInterpolator to include significant wave height, period, direction

Task 3. Integrate into North Carolina Forecast System– Post-process UNDInterpolator output into NC-CERA/OPeNDAP formats

Task 4. Calibration and Skill Assessment– Cross validate to improve accuracy– Optimize for storm surge and wave heights

Project goals and expected results

[Should the previous slide instead just cover the milestones? Previous slide is very text heavy. Unsure if that is a problem.]

What does AdcircLite-NC do?

• Response Surface Method(RSM) — Given an set of input parameters, predict a

response influenced by several variables• Input parameters for AdcircLite-NC:

hurricane parameters• RSM for AdcircLite-NC: UNDInterpolatorCould also mention that [RSM originally developed in 1950s to determine optimal operating conditions in chemical engineering applications(Myers et al., 1989)][In coastal realm, RSM previously used for modeling wave crest elevation from wave spectra(Tromans et al., 2004, Gibson et al., 2007), and larval development from temperature/salinity(Lough et al., 1973)]

What does ADCIRC-Lite do?

AdcircLite-NC uses NHC best track and pre-computed dataset as

inputs[Show map with hurricane track]

What does AdcircLite-NC do?

UNDInterpolator evaluates track response using pre-computed

dataset[Show plot of LF tracks and plot

of BP tracks]

What does AdcircLite-NC’s RSM look like?

Where x = vector containing hurricane track parametersẐi(x) = response at xb(x) = basis functionsai(x) = basis coefficientsNB = number of basis functions

What parameters are used?

[Description of parameters, showing most of them via map.]

[Introduce Holland B with r/RMW vs V_G/P(r) plots]

[Holland B is not a parameter in the proposal’s RSM formulae, does that matter?]

Progress to date:

Task 1. Preliminary datasets and testing of the UNDInterpolator– Established testbed of response nodes– Compared UNDInterpolator output from response

nodes to validated ADCIRC runs for hurricanes Fran and Isabel

Progress to date:

[Generate results at 100 response points and compare to

validated ADCIRC runs]

Next steps, near-term

[Hindcasting, optimizing weights for parameters in basis

coefficients]

Next steps, long-term

[incorporation into NC-CERA]