Adapting to Climate Challenges

Putting Ideas into Action

Connie MillarSenior Scientist

USDA Forest ServicePacific Southwest Research Station

Albany, California USAcmillar@fs.fed.us

Confronting Climate Change

I. Adaptation Assist resources & ecosystems accommodate to changes imposed by climate

II. Mitigation Reduce human effects on climate system by sequestering CO2 & decreasing greenhouse gas emissions

Complementary… and sometimes conflicting

Ecosystems of the FutureEmbracing Change & Uncertainty

• Basic principles of ecosystem management remain valid

• Modify current practices with new information

• Some traditional practices might be inappropriate – i.e., where future is assumed to be similar to the past

• Manage for processes & ecosystem services

ADAPTATION PRINCIPLESToolbox Approach

♦ No single solution fits all situations

♦ Mix & match tools

♦ Options differ for short- versus long-term

♦ Nimbleness matters: Be flexible, experimental, and innovative

♦ Take small risks, be willing to learn & changecourse in midstream

♦ Prioritize often

Climate Adaptation Tools“Resource-management practices, educational and reference modules, decision-support aids, and qualitative or quantitative models that address the adaptation of natural and cultural resources to climate change” Peterson et al. in press

NPSNPS NPS

An Adaptation FrameworkMoving from Concept to Prescription

Swanston & Janowiak in review

Adaptation Options* Promote Resistance

* Increase Resilience

* Enable Ecosystems to Respond

*Realign Altered EcosystemsMillar et al. 2007

OPTION 1: Promote Resistance to Change

* Defend highest-value resources against change

Pika habitat

British Columbia: Lodgepole pine & mountain pine beetle Carroll et al. 2003

BC Ministry of Forests

“Homeland Security Option”

Strategy: Resist movement of beetles into new host species

Tactic: Aggressive beetle control at ecotone of jack and lodgepole pines

Tactic: Aggressive fuel breaksTactic: Heavily armored stream crossings & oversized culverts

O’Halloran

Strategy: Prevent catastrophic fires from entering critical areas

Strategy: Defend critical watersheds against extreme storm events

RES

ISTA

NC

E

Strategy: Maintain species in climatically favorable niches within current native range Tactic: Establish climate refugia

Climate buffered (riparian)

Substrate (carbonate) Persistent conditions (RIF wetlands)

High biodiversity Steep elevational gradients

Ochotona princeps

Refugia: Locations where species persist during periods of changing

regional climates

RES

ISTA

NC

E

Resisting the effects of climate change might be possible only in the short term

Resist projects that might fail or beinappropriate under future climates

*Adaptation strategy*

Pinyon/juniper expansion

Meadow invasion

Salmon restoration

Be Aware of “Paddling Upstream” Decisions

RES

ISTA

NC

E

OPTION 2: Increase Resilience

* Improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to prior conditions after disturbance

“Health-Care Option”

Strategy: Minimize stress, provide buffers and emergency back-ups

Tactics:- Thin Forest Stands- Stock Seed Banks- Prescribe Fires- Make Snow at Ski Areas

Strategy: Work with disturbance to achieve forest health goals and promote genetic adaptedness

Tactic: Implement rehabilitation after fire so as to increase structural diversity and alter species mixes

Tactic: Manage for genetic adaptation after beetle-related mortality

RES

ILIE

NC

E

Strategy: Improve the capacity of a system or species to absorb external challenges without change in state

Wehausen

Approach: Maintain forest not shrubland Tactic: Prescribe fires

Approach: Enable species to persist not extirpate Tactic: Supplement winter food:

Approach: Maintain meadow not forestTactic: Vacate grazing allotmentsR

ESIL

IEN

CE

* Assist transitions to new ecological conditions or locations

Ecological conversions are occurring already

Forest to GrasslandColorado plateau, Pinus edulisDrought & bark beetles

Grass- and Shrubland to ForestGreat Basin, Pinus monophyllaWarming & fire suppression

C. Allen

OPTION 3: Enable Ecosystems to Respond Adaptively“Beginner’s Mind Option”

Allen

PacificSouthwest

Additional TestArea

Ron Neilson, USFS, PNW

Strategy: Use downscaled climate- and ecological-response models to project future forest trajectories

Tactic: Following fire, plant with novel mix of species anticipating what the future environment might support

Beware of putting all your eggs in one basket

RES

PON

D

McGlinchy & Neilson2010

Strategy: Promote genotypes that will be adapted to conditions of future environments

Tactic 2: Select broad genotypic mixes for uncertain future

Tactic 1: Select specific genotypes for explicit climatic conditions

reforestation

ecological restoration

RES

PON

D

reintroductionCalifornia Seed Zones

Spreading risks is a smart approach

Strategy: Move plants or animals outside their current native range to anticipated favorable future habitats

But, Do We Know Enough?

Picea breweriana

native

new“The models show little chance that the climate anywhere in western US will be suitable for Brewer spruce by 2060. However, all GCMs show suitable climatic niche in SE Alaska and coastal British Columbia. My Canadian colleagues are planning for genetic resource planting sites near Prince Rupert, British Columbia.”

-- USFS Research Geneticist, Nov 2008

Tactic: Establish ex-situ populations of Brewer Spruce 1500 km north of current native range

Do we know enough to do it?

Assisted Migration

RES

PON

D

Tactic: Establish “neo-native” populations at paleo-historic locations of similar climatic regime

Quaternary (red) and Extant (yellow) Populations

Millar 1999Pinus radiata

Strategy: Conduct routine work as experiments to learn about ecological responses

Tactic: Use redundancy in reforestation

low

high

range margin

Strategy: Increase Diversity

Tactic: Increase forest structural diversity

Tactic: Expand from winter- to 4-season resort

RES

PON

D

Strategy: Promote connected landscapes so that species can move at will to favorable habitat

Tactics: - Increase management-unit size- Lower fragmentation- Maintain robust riparian zones - Empower decision flexibility

RES

PON

D

Water diversions began to Los Angeles

Mono Lake Basin, California

“Historic range of variability” (pre-disturbance conditions) as a management target will often be inappropriate

NAS 1987

OPTION 4: Realign altered ecosystems tocurrent and future dynamics

“Auto Mechanic’s Option” Strategy: Use info about future conditions as target for restoration

Tactic: Base target for Mono Lake level on pro-jections of increased drought and lower run-off

Strategy: Re-establish self-sustaining herds of endangered Sierra Nevada Bighorn Sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae)

Tactics:- Augment species above

replacement rate (λ >1.0)- Establish multiple herds across

diverse locations- Control lions in herd areas- Remove domestic sheep from

zones around herds

Climate change affects:- Winter range quality & size- Migration dynamics- Disease transmission- Predator dynamics

Habitat Suitability Model

REA

LIG

N

Adaptation Options* Promote Resistance

* Increase Resilience

* Enable Ecosystems to Respond

*Realign Altered Ecosystems

How to Proceed? A Few Basic StepsStep 1: Assess Vulnerabilities

Scale Matters*1. Spatial

- Ecoregion (Multi-forest; mountain range)- Forest

- Watershed- Project

2. Temporal- Long Term (> 10 yrs)

- Short Term (2-10 yrs)- Current Year

* Disaster planning crosses scales

Broad Scope Vulnerability Assessments(large area, long time)

1. Project Future Climates (downscaled to your region)

2. Project Future Ecosystem Responses (regional)-- Develop scenarios (ecologic, hydrologic, social)-- Forecast changes in societal use & demands

3. Evaluate Resources for Sensitivity to Climatic Change-- Plants, animals, habitat (land & water)-- Streamflow, springs, lakes, wetlands-- Recreation, rural communities, economic capacity

Many guides are available on Vulnerability Analysis

Watershed Scale Vulnerability Assessments(watershed, mid time-frame)

Umatilla NF Oregon

Peterson et al. in press

Aspen Health Survey

Project Scale(small area and/or near-future)

Morelli and Carr in press

Use: Climate Project Screening Tool

Project Scale: Evaluating Current Year Projectse.g., USFS “Schedule of Proposed Actions”

Morelli et al. in press

Disaster Preparedness: More than Scenario PlanningWhat is the worst climate-related disaster you can imagine?

2. Pinus longaevaWhite pine blister rust infests Methuselah stand

Remove all affected branches and Ribes shrubs

Collect seed/tissue and propagate ex situ

1. Sierra Bighorn SheepPneumonia transmitted from domestic sheep

3. American Pika(Ochotona princeps) Nevada populations collapse as result of climate effects

Introduce pika to vacant Snake Range

Remove sick bighorn sheep

Step 2: Set Priorities

1.Short Term (<10 yrs)Project Scale:

Do No HarmReconsider Goals & TargetsModify Existing Practices

2.Longer Term (>10 yrs) Planning Scale:

Anticipate SurprisesEase Transitions

Astragalus monoensis exclosure

Triage Approach to Priority-Setting

TRIAGE Categories:Red Urgent, treatable:

immediate priority

Yellow Mid urgency; soon to become red

Green Stable, low priority

Black Urgent, untreatable with available resources: no action

*************************Re-assess & re-sort

triare (Fr): to sort

Short term; needs exceed capacity

Tiered Approaches to Priority SettingLandscape Scale, Longer Term

“Win-Win” - Actions that reduce the impacts of climate change while providing other benefits

“No Regrets” - Actions that provide important benefits at relatively little additional cost or risk

“Piggyback” – Priorities determined by other projects

Step 3: Select Option, Develop Strategies, & Formulate Tactics

Swanston & Janowiakin review

Step 4: Monitor and AdjustPolicy implemented as an experiment

Simple is ok, but always implement so you can learn and adjust

Adaptive management essential under changing conditions

Sierra Nevada Bighorn Sheep Recovery

Cycle III Add:- Remove lions known to kill sheep-Result: Not adequate to meet goals

Cycle IV Add?:- Remove all lions from herd vicinity

CDFG

CDFG

Tactics: Cycle I- Augment extant herds and translocate

to historic & new locations- Vacate domestic sheep allotmentsResult: Not adequate to meet goals

Cycle II Add:- Aversively condition lions-Result: Not adequate to meet goals

Step 1: Assess Vulnerabilities

Step 2: Set Priorities

Step 3: Select Option, Strategies, and Tactics* Promote Resistance…* Increase Resilience...* Enable Ecosystems to Respond…*Realign Altered Ecosystems…

Step 4: Monitor and Adjust

SUMMARY ADAPTATION APPROACH

Swanston, C.W. and M.K. Janowiak (eds) In review. Forest adaptation resources: Climate change tools and approaches for land managers. Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science.

Peterson, D.L., Millar, C.I., Joyce, L.A., Furniss, M.J. et al. In press. Responding to climate change on national forests: A guidebook for developing adaptation options. USDA Forest Service, General Technical Report. PNW.

Resources:

US Forest Service 2010 “National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change”

Modes of Action:

Dimensions of Activity; Performance Scorecard

USFS Climate Change Resource Center

www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/

Web Tools for Forest Managers

Climate Change Online Short CourseProduced by the WestWide Climate Initiative

Available on Climate Change Resource Center website

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