Adapting to a changing climate - Jerry Knox, Cranfield University

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This presentation formed part of the Farming Futures workshop 'Irrigation in a changing climate: save water, save money, get fit for the future'. 17th November 2009

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<ul><li> 1. Adapting to a changing climate Jerry Knox, Centre for Water Science </li></ul> <p> 2. Observed increase in European annual mean air temperature, 1860 to 20082.00 1.752008 10th warmest on recorde 1.50gare 1.25 1990s warmest decadevain last 100 years9 1.00981-0 0.75581 0.50otd 0.25er )a Cp 0.00moo (c -0.25,noitai -0.50ve -0.75derut -1.00arep -1.25meT -1.501 1 1 111 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 28 8 8 889 9 9 9 99 9 9 9 9 05 6 7 890 1 2 3 45 6 7 8 9 00 0 0 000 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 Annual deviations (land only)10-year moving average (land only) 3. Impact pathways for irrigated agriculture Human activity Increase inStomatal resistanceCrop cultivarsatmospheric CO2Crop growth rates Areas irrigated concentration Depths appliedClimate andweather Changes in rainfall Irrigation waterand ET (pattern and demand intensity) 4. Climate variability drives irrigation water demand 100Evapotranspiration (ET) 908070605040 Rainfall (P)302010 0 l nbarprayn Juug pctovecJa Fe M A M JuA SeO N D 5. Predicted changes in rainfall 2050L 2050H6040Precipitation anomaly (%) .20 0-20-40-60Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepOctNov Dec 6. Predicted changes in evapotranspiration (ET) 7. Current agroclimate variability (1961-90) Supplemental irrigation concentrated in east and south east England where rainfall</p>