Final Report

1 January 2011-30 June 2014

Adapting Agriculture to

Climate Change: Developing

Promising Strategies Using

Analogue Locations in Eastern

and Southern Africa

Submitted to

BMZ-GIZ

This work was undertaken as part of the

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CALESA Final Report

1. Name of IARC

International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)

2. Project Title

Adapting agriculture to climate change: Developing promising strategies using analogue

locations in eastern and southern Africa (CALESA)

3. Funding type (= Project Funding), GIZ Project Number and Contract Number.

10.7860.9-001.00

4. Reporting Period

1 January 2011 to 30 June 2014

5. Project Coordinator and Project Scientists

Project coordinator:

Dr KPC Rao, ICRISAT-Addis Ababa (From January 2014)

Principal Scientist and Country Representative

ICRISAT-Ethiopia (c/o ILRI), Box 5689,

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Tel: +251-11 617 2544

Fax: +251-11 646 1252/646 4645

Email: k.p.rao@cgiar.org

Dr Dave Harris, ICRISAT-Nairobi (up to December 2013)

Dr Justice Nyamangara, ICRISAT-Bulawayo (up to July 2014)

6. Project Partners

Midlands State University, Zimbabwe (Dr Adelaide Munodawafa)

Zimbabwe Meteorological Department, Zimbabwe (Dr Amos Makarau)

Kenya Meteorological Department, Kenya (Dr Peter Ambenje)

Kenya Agricultural Research Institute, Kenya (Dr Anthony Esilaba)

Hamburg University, Faculty of Life Sciences, Germany (Prof Walter Leal)

7. State of Project Implementation and Assessment

A. Briefly describe, with reference to the Logical Framework Matrix, the state of

activities (indicating “completed” or “not completed”) as well as the achievement of

the indicators for the outputs, purpose and (if applicable) for the goal, as well as IDO

contribution.) Describe major deviations from the work plan and their reasons.

2

Narrative

summary Goal,

purpose, outputs

Activities Milestones/Indicators Status

Goal: Improve the ability of the rainfed farmers

in the semi-arid tropics of Africa to adapt to

progressive climate change through crop, soil

and water management innovations and

appropriate crop genotype choices

- Government programs on climate change adaptation actively promote the project outputs by PY3

The project findings are widely disseminated

Purpose: Develop sound adaptation strategies

for future temperature increases associated

with greenhouse gas emissions using ‘analogue

locations’, both as learning sites and as

technology testing sites.

- Adaptation strategies for four major crop growing ecologies

- New tools that are validated

- Publications

- Adaptation strategies focusing on varieties, plant populations, fertilizer use were formulated

- Tools to analyze long-term climate data developed and crop simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) calibrated and validated

- List of publications is as under item 15

O1: 1. Four

important crop

growing areas in

Kenya and

Zimbabwe which

comprise

(i) cool/dry,

(ii) cool/wet,

(iii) warm/dry and

(iv) warm/wet

growing

conditions and

their temperature

analogue locations,

identified and fully

characterized

Act. 1.1. Identify tools

and approaches for

delineating important

crop growing areas and

their temperature

analogues

- Criteria for analogues: PY1

- Protocol developed: PY1

- Tools identified and procured: PY1

Achieved. Criteria for analogue locations was developed and identified. Necessary protocols for undertaking various activities developed and implemented. Tools as required (CLIMEX and APSIM) were identified and procured

Act. 1.2: Collect data

necessary to characterize

the target locations and

establish baseline

conditions

- Long-term climate data compiled: PY1

- Data on production and socioeconomic trends collected: PY1

- Long-term trends analyzed: PY1

- Report describing similarities and dissimilarities prepared: PY1

Achieved: Long-term climate data for all 9 locations collected and analyzed and report was prepared. The same is reproduced at the end of project report appended.

Act. 1.3 Conduct an ex-

ante assessment to

quantify the current

climate yield gap and

risks

- Crops, varieties and management practices identified: PY1

- Climate change scenarios developed: PY1

- Simulation analysis completed : PY1

Achieved: Four locally relevant crops (2 cereals and 2 legumes) were identified, climate change scenarios developed for all locations for 5 GCMs, two time periods and two RCPs and analysis completed. Report

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Narrative

summary Goal,

purpose, outputs

Activities Milestones/Indicators Status

- Report on climate sensitivity prepared: PY2

on sensitivity analysis is included in the end of project report appended.

Act. 1.4. Document

stakeholder perceptions

about climate variability

and change and their

impacts

- Stakeholder analysis completed: PY1

- Survey questionnaire developed: PY1.

- Surveys completed: PY1 - Report on stakeholder

perceptions published : PY2

Achieved. Two PhD students have identified the relevant stakeholders and conducted surveys as planned. Findings reported as a part of their theses, also appended.

O2: Through the

combined use of

long-term daily

climate data, crop

growth simulation

models and

participatory

surveys with

farmers, the

implications of

both current and

future (climate

change)

production risk at

the analogue

locations identified

and quantified.

Act. 2.1 Enhance NMS

and NARS capacity to

build, analyze and utilize

high quality climate data

- Problems with available data identified: PY1

- Appropriate methods for quality check identified: PY1

- Quality climate data for use with APSIM assembled: PY1

Achieved. Quality checks were conducted with tamet, missing data was filled with MERRA (Modern-era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) generated data and data as required to use with APSIM assembled

Act 2.2. Evaluate APSIM

performance in

simulating temperature

effects

- Performance of identified crops simulated with APSIM: PY2

- Simulation results evaluated and additional data requirements identified: PY2

- Protocols for field experimentation developed: PY3

Achieved: ex-ante analysis conducted, data requirements identified and protocols for conducting field trials developed

Act. 2.3. Calibrate

cultivar parameters and

validate APSIM

simulation of

temperature effects

- Experiments with selected crops and management practices conducted: PY2-3

- Cultivar and management parameters for APSIM derived: PY2-3

- Calibration and validation of APSIM completed: PY3

Achieved: APSIM was calibrated and validated for all the test crops using the data collected from field trials

Act. 2.4. Identify

adaptation strategies

under climate change

- Scenarios to assess the effect of progressive climate change developed: PY3

- Simulations conducted:

Achieved: Climate change scenarios developed and analyzed

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Narrative

summary Goal,

purpose, outputs

Activities Milestones/Indicators Status

PY3 - Results analyzed for

temperature effects and published : PY3

O3: Through

iterative field

research both on

station and in

farmers’ fields over

the 3-year period,

potential crop, soil

and water

management and

crop genotype

adaptation

strategies

developed and

evaluated.

Act. 3.1. Identify

management options for

field testing

- Potential management options for field testing identified: PY2

- Experimental protocols developed: PY2

Achieved: Potential management options identified include water conservation practices, adjustments to plant population and fertility management. In addition, trials were also conducted to assess the seed priming with and without an amendment “Growplus”

Act. 3.2. Conduct field

trials to assess

performance of

management options at

selected locations

- On station mother trial conducted: PY2-3

- On-farm baby trials conducted : PY3

- Required data compiled: PY3

Achieved Partially: All the on-station trials were conducted but on-farm trials were not conducted due to budget limitations. However, field days were conducted to get the feedback from farmers.

Act. 3.3. Evaluate the

adequacy of current

management options

- Productivity and profitability of tested options assessed: PY3

- Suitability and acceptance by end users analyzed: PY3

- Adaptation strategies developed: PY3

- Stakeholder consultations held: PY3

Achieved: Productivity assessment of the tested options was assessed and farmer acceptance is assessed. Adaptation strategies are identified mainly from currently available technologies. Stakeholder consultations including a special session during the Soil Science Society of East Africa conference were held.

O4: Through the

wide promotion of

the project,

dissemination of its

activities, results

and hands-on

capacity building,

the strengthened

institutional

capacity (both in

Act. 4.1. Project Initiation

Seminars in Kenya and

Zimbabwe

- Key stakeholders identified: PY1

- Inception workshops held: PY1

- Workshop reports published: PY1

Achieved: Stakeholders were identified and involved in the inception workshop held during the first year and project findings were disseminated through newsletters to identified stakeholders.

Act. 4.2. Project

Promotion

- A brochure and poster on project developed: PY1

Achieved: The project prepared a brochure, developed and maintained a

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Narrative

summary Goal,

purpose, outputs

Activities Milestones/Indicators Status

understanding

climate change

impacts and

developing

effective adaptation

responses) will be

ensured’

- Web page developed and updated regularly: PY1-3

- Bi-annual newsletters developed: PY1-3

- At least 4 journal articles published: PY2-3

website, six newsletters produced, and several journal articles prepared of which two journal articles and one book chapter were published and others are in press or under review.

Act. 4.3. Supervision of

the two PhD students in

Zimbabwe and Kenya

- Two PhD students identified and registered: PY1

- Field work on identified topics completed: PY3

- Research results published as theses and journal articles: PY3

Achieved: Two PhD students, one from Kenya and the other from Zimbabwe were identified and have successfully completed their research. They defended their theses and final submission of the theses will be done next month.

Act. 4.4. Promotion

Seminars

- Two end-of-project workshops organized: PY3

- Key outcomes disseminated: PY3

- Way forward with well-defined follow-up actions developed: PY3

Achieved: One end-of-project meeting and one special session at the East Africa Soil Science Society were held and main findings from the project shared.

B. Assess the achievement of the Research Outputs answering the following question

and applying the following assessment scale: (Scale 1 – 6)

How do you rate the achievement of the Research Outputs (as defined in the Logical Framework

Matrix) in quantity and quality?

1- Very good. The project was able to generate very good information on how temperature increase

will impact the growth and performance of various crops using an innovative methodology of

analogue locations.

C. Assess the achievement of the Purpose answering the following question and

applying the following assessment scale. (Scale 1 – 6)

How do you rate the achievement of the Purpose (i.e. utilization of the research outputs, as defined in

the Logical Framework Matrix) in quantity and quality?

2- The research outputs are generated towards the end of the project period – additional time is

needed for full utilization.

D. Assess the achievement of the Goal answering the following question and applying

the following assessment scale. (Scale 1 – 6)

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How do you rate the achievement of the Goal (i.e. direct benefits for target groups, as defined in the

Logical Framework Matrix) in quantity and quality?

2- The achievement of goal is in line with expectations. Impact on end users cannot yet be assessed.

How do you rate the consideration of gender equity aspects as defined in the Project Proposal?

1- The project paid special attention to gender related issues and the work of two PhD students

targeted these aspects.

E. Optional - Contribution to MDG 7 (Ensure environmental sustainability) If the project

proposal includes a contribution to MDG 7, please verify that the report contains

information in this respect. (Scale 1 – 6)

2- Though environment sustainably is not explicitly addressed in the project, much of the work

contributes to sustainable intensification which will have indirect impact on environment such as

reduced deforestation and extension of agriculture into more marginal lands

8. Major Research Findings

This is a knowledge intensive project aimed to understand better the impact of climate variability

and change on crop production and develop appropriate information to develop better informed

adaptation strategies. Though several assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture are

available, most of these assessments are based on statistical and empirical models that fail to

account for the full range of complex interactions and their effects on agricultural systems. This

project tried to make more realistic assessment of climate change impacts on smallholder farms

which are highly diverse both in terms of biophysical conditions and the way they are managed.

Process based crop simulation models are the most efficient tools in addressing this diversity.

However, these models are data intensive and required data is not available, especially in African

countries. In addition, the models need to be parameterized and validated to the locally relevant

systems. One of the major achievements of this project is to collect data that is required to calibrate

and validate crop models through extensive experimentation across a range of temperature regimes

relevant to Eastern and Southern Africa. Though the data was used to calibrate crop simulation

model APSIM in this project, the same can be used to calibrate any other model like DSSAT (Decision

Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer).

The field trials conducted under this project are unique and helped in collecting sufficient evidence

on how changes in climate impact the growth and performance of different crops. This information

is a valuable input in improving the crop simulation models which are used extensively to assess

impacts of climate variability and change.

Another important achievement is to understand the gender specific impacts of climate change

especially on households headed by women. The two PhD students that this project has supported

made detailed investigations on this aspect. One of the issues emerging is that adaptation to climate

change requires additional investments such as in irrigation systems, changes in crop and variety mix

and in inputs such as improved seeds and fertilizers. Women farmers have little access to both

information and resources required to achieve this and there is a need to address this by carefully

targeting the women and other disadvantaged sections of the society while promoting adaptation

strategies.

Very little effort was made in the region to characterize the long-term trends and changes in climate

by critically analyzing the historical climate data. This is mainly due to lack of simple tools that can be

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used to analyze large amounts of data. The project has developed simple spreadsheet based tools

such as “Rainfall analyzer” and “Temperature analyzer” which were immediately accepted by many

researchers in the region. Using these tools the project was able to identify important changes in the

current climatic conditions such as changes in the variability of rainfall.

One of the problems in the region is lack of good quality climatic data. Available data has several

missing values and data on some parameters such as solar radiation which are required to run crop

models is not available. This project has developed and tested a methodology to fill the gaps in

available data and estimate the missing data using MERRA data.

Another key finding of this project is that impacts of climate change can be positive or negative

depending on the current climatic conditions, crops and varieties grown and management adopted.

This is against the general perception that the impacts of climate change are all negative. Hence,

while promoting adaptation strategies, the differential impact of climate change needs to be

considered to develop more realistic strategies and in better targeting of the same. The current

belief that adaptation to climate change requires drought-tolerant crops and varieties and water

conservation measures is not applicable to all locations.

The project made significant contribution to capacity building in the region. In addition to two PhD

students, several researchers and students were trained in the use of identified models and other

tools that are required to make comprehensive assessment of climate change and its impacts on

smallholder agriculture. Now a core team of researchers and students with skills to make critical and

comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts is established and they are actively using the

tools in various other projects they are involved with and/or in their master and doctoral research

projects.

A number of publications and presentations were made and are under preparation based on the

data and findings from this project (Refer to Section 15 for a detailed list). This is going to be an

important contribution to the growing literature on climate change and its impact on agriculture.

Data and information from this project is also assisting projects such as AgMIP (Agricultural Model

Intercomparison and Improvement Project) in which ICRISAT and other partners are involved.

9. Assessment of Research Findings

The research findings are expected to have significant impact on how climate change impacts on

agriculture are understood and on how adaptation strategies are designed. While the well-calibrated

models and tools will help researchers in making more realistic assessment of current and future

climate impacts, the limitations identified will help in further developing these tools to accurately

simulate the complex and diverse smallholder systems. The information generated under this

project provides one of the best and more accurate picture of climate change impacts and is

expected to influence the planners and decision makers of climate change adaptation programs in

designing more appropriate and locally relevant programs.

10. Knowledge Sharing and Partnerships for Impact

The project involved various stakeholders from the beginning and made efforts to disseminate the

project findings as widely as possible. It developed a web page for the project and published half-

yearly newsletters with key findings. These are distributed to all relevant stakeholders. The project

held inception and end-of-project meetings and organized a special session during the Soil Science

Society of East Africa meeting held in Nakuru, Kenya. Many project scientists made presentations in

this session and conference proceedings are currently being reviewed for publication by Springer. In

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addition, the project team made a number of presentations in various national and international

workshops and also in the in-house meetings of the partner institutions. Several other publications

including two PhD theses and papers arising from that work are currently under preparation. To

date, the findings are largely targeted at researchers, academicians and planners of climate change

adaptation programs in the participating countries. Additional efforts are on to develop appropriate

policy briefs and extension material to disseminate the findings to planners and government and

non-governmental extension agencies.

11. Training

The project conducted a formal training program aimed at introducing and providing hands-on work

experience in using identified tools and in applying them to assess impact of climate variability

during the first year of its operation. The main objectives of the training program are:

Introduce simple tools to analyze long-term climate data and characterize variability and

trends in climate

Demonstrate the potential use of stochastic climate models ("weather generators") and

generate long-term climate data for use with crop simulation models

Familiarize with system simulation model APSIM and conduct scenario analyses to

characterize and quantify climate impacts on agriculture

A total of 17 participants from KARI, Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and ICRISAT along

with three students working on topics related to climate variability and change attended the training

program. The program was divided into three sections, each dealing with one of the three key

aspects of the project work. The first section dealt with characterizing the variability in climate, the

second with generating location specific climate change scenarios using outputs from selected GCMs

and emission scenarios and the third component dealt with assessing impacts of climate variability

and change on agricultural systems using crop simulation model APSIM. The participants rated the

program as highly useful and the table below summarises their assessment. This was followed by a

refresher course to address the difficulties faced and make them more comfortable in using them.

All student participants used these tools in their research projects and the researchers used them for

the work under this project and other projects such as AgMIP. In addition, training programs were

also conducted to the technicians managing the trials planned under the project.

Table: Assessment of the training workshop by participants (n=17)on a scale of 1-5 (5 being

extremely useful).

Usefulness of tools 4.50

Rainfall analyzer 4.50

Temperature analyzer 4.57

MarkSim 4.18

APSIM 4.64

Risk analyzer 4.64

Understanding tools and their application 4.32

Exercises sufficient for understanding capabilities and limitations of the tools 3.75

Documentation sufficient for understanding and practice 3.79

Explanations/clarifications provided are adequate 4.60

Skills acquired sufficient for developing required input files 3.61

Gained enough skills to understand and interpret results 3.29

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Time provided is sufficient to understand tools and continue practicing 3.46

Potential for using tools in research/employment 4.61

Gained enough experience to start using tools 3.68

Objectives of the program achieved 4.32

Expectations of the participants met 4.05

Overall 3.95

List of participants in the training program (27 February – 2 March, 2012):

Sl. No Name of the participant Intuition

1 AO Esilaba Researcher KARI

2 Emerita Njiru Researcher KARI

3 B Wafula Researcher KARI

4 Jared Odoyo Student University of Nairobi

5 Bernard Omayio Student University of Nairobi

6 Jay Kannaiyan Student University of London

7 Lucy Wangui Student Kenyatta University

8 JW Onyango Researcher KARI

9 Anthony Oyoo Technician ICRISAT

10 Susan Njeri Technician ICRISAT

11 M Okoti Researcher KARI

12 CM Njeru Researcher KARI

13 PK Ketiem Researcher KARI

14 EA Okwosa Researcher KARI

15 J Mwaura Researcher KARI

16 Simon Gathara Researcher KMD

17 JM Miriti Researcher KMD

12. Lessons Learned

The work under this project was planned and executed extremely well. The selection of sites and

experiments conducted are in line with the activities proposed and have contributed significantly to

the achievement of planned output. All milestones were achieved even though delays were

experienced in achieving some milestones. Important lessons learned include:

The structure of the project requires good quality data from on-station trials for two or more

seasons before the results can be used as inputs in the proposed modeling exercises. As a

result, the project workload is heavily skewed to the later part of the project period, leading

to delays in achieving some of the planned milestones within the project period.

The research stations are very poorly equipped to collect the required data. Some of them

do not have ovens, balances and other commonly used equipment which created problems

in collecting good quality data. However, we were able to source some funds from CCAFS

(CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security) and other

programs to support the additional costs incurred in field operations.

Though the trials were planned to collect a set of data that is required to assess the impact

of climate change and identify options to manage them, the technicians managing the trials

lacked the necessary skills to effectively implement them. For example, pigeonpea is a crop

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new to most technicians. We tried to rectify the same by conducting training programs and

practical field demonstrations.

Budgetary constraints, particularly in Zimbabwe where costs have escalated dramatically,

have delayed follow-on focus group discussions planned to be conducted by the PhD

student, and farmer participatory evaluations of crop management and variety trials have

been postponed somewhat. ICRISAT has provided some additional resources from other

sources to support these threatened activities, including unanticipated additional costs for

operating the runoff plot trials at Makoholi.

13. Future Research Needs

The project made a good beginning by collecting good quality data as required to calibrate and

validate crop models and apply them to assess the impact of variable and changing climatic

conditions. However, there are still some gaps that need further research.

- While APSIM performed well in simulating the phenology of most crops at all locations

based on calibration made with data from one location, the simulated grain and biomass

yields related poorly to the observed data . The model seems to be doing fairly well with

high-input systems but there are problems in simulating the low-input systems. Additional

studies are required to improve the model capabilities in simulating smallholder systems in

Africa which are mainly low-input systems.

- The model simulated maize and sorghum phenology very well. However, there are

problems in simulating growth and performance of legume crops especially beans. Further

research is required to improve the model capabilities in simulating legume crops.

- Evidence suggests that many assumptions made in developing adaptation strategies are

not correct. The perception that crop water requirements increase with increasing

temperature may not be true since the reduction in crop growing period is compensating

the increased demand for water. Also the emphasis on promoting drought-tolerant short

duration crops as an adaptation strategy need reconsideration. The model simulations

suggest that further reduction in growing period of short duration varieties has an adverse

impact on crop yields.

- Evidence suggests that the reduction in crop growing period and associated reduction in

biomass production can be compensated by increasing plant population. This needs

further assessment since increased plant population puts additional demands on the

nutrient and other requirements.

- There is large uncertainty in predicting future climatic conditions especially rainfall. This is

partly due to differences between GCMs and partly due to downscaling. The delta method

used in this project cannot account for the changes in variability and frequency of

occurrence of extreme events.

14. Summary

The project is based on the identified need to have adaptation strategies that are location specific

and are based on sound scientific knowledge. Since climate change is long-term in nature and

modeling is the only option to generate reliable information, the project proposed to use “spatial

analogue locations which are locations that have today the climatic characteristics that are expected

in future to collect data required to calibrate, validate and apply crop simulation models. For this,

the project has identified nine different locations in Kenya and Zimbabwe representing temperature

regimes ranging from 17.7 to 25.90C. A set of four experiments were planned and conducted at all

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the nine locations to quantify the differences in the growth and performance of four different crops

(two cereals and two legumes) and their response to changes in soil moisture, planting dates and

fertilizer application. The project conducted these experiments over three seasons in Kenya and two

seasons in Zimbabwe. Good data was collected on four key parameters that are required to calibrate

the crop models. The data collected include days to flowering, days to maturity and grain and dry

matter yields. Using the data from one location in the country, the model was calibrated and then

validated with data from other locations. The calibrated model simulated the phenology at all

locations extremely well indicating that the model is capable of simulating temperature effects fairly

well. For example, the days to flowering of maize varied from about 60 days at a warmer site to 120

days at a cooler site and the model was able to simulate this variability fairly well. However, the

model overestimated the days to flowering and maturity in case of bean at the cooler site. The

simulated grain and biomass yields are poorly related to the observed. This is attributed to models

inability to capture well all the biophysical interactions including pest and disease effects. The

response of test crops to changes in management varied from one location to other and form one

season to other. In general, early planting and use of fertilizers up to 40 kg N/ha were found to give

higher yields while no significant response to water conservation practice of tied ridging was

observed.

Long-term climate data for all locations was compiled and analyzed for trends and variability in

rainfall and temperature. A general increase in both maximum and minimum temperature was

observed at all locations. In case of rainfall, no definite trend was observed in the amount or in the

anomalies. However, an increasing trend in its variability was observed from the 10-year moving

average of coefficient of variation. For all locations, downscaled climate change scenarios for mid

(2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100) periods were developed under two Representative

Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) using outputs from five coupled atmosphere-ocean

general circulation models (GCMs). The GCMs used are CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM-ES, MIROC5

and MPI-ESM-MR. In general, locations in Zimbabwe showed higher increase in both maximum and

minimum temperatures when compared with locations in Kenya. For example, projections by GFDL-

ESM2M for locations in Zimbabwe are higher by 30% for maximum temperature and by 80% for

minimum temperature. Similar differences were also observed in case of rainfall. Most GCMs

predicted an increase in rainfall for locations in Kenya and decline in rainfall for locations in

Zimbabwe. For all locations in Kenya, rainfall is expected to increase by about 9% to end-century

period under RCP 4.5 while for locations in Zimbabwe, the rainfall is expected to decline by 21.2%.

Using the downscaled climate change scenarios and calibrated crop model APSIM, impacts of

climate change on the test crops at all locations were assessed. The impacts of climate change varied

from one crop to the other and one variety to the other. The impacts are largely negative in case of

short duration crops and short duration varieties. This is mainly attributed to the reduced crop

growing period which led to a reduction in the total biomass produced and thereby yields. The

analysis provided key insights into the climate sensitivity of the crops, varieties and management

practices which are extremely useful in formulating adaptation strategies. Results of simulation

analysis indicate that it is possible to reduce the negative impacts of climate change by making

simple adjustments to plant density, fertilizer use and variety.

The project also undertook studies to assess the differential impact of climate change on gender.

Results indicate that the proportions of de-facto female heads at the dry and warmer sites is high

compared to the cool wet sites, mainly due to migration of men to work as labor. Gender differences

exist in preferred crops and management strategies across sites. Women farmers tend to put more

area under short-duration legumes which according to results from simulation analysis are going to

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be impacted negatively with climate change. In addition, labor for production, pest management,

harvesting and processing, against a background of male labor migration is another major problem

faced by women farmers. This constrains timely operations which are extremely important in rainfed

semi-arid areas. Most women farmers are interested in adopting drip irrigation but are constrained

by lack of investment capacity and access to credit.

The project developed a training program aimed at better understanding the variability in current

climatic conditions, generating location specific climate change scenarios from GCM outputs and

assessing impacts of variable and changing climate on crop production. The participants are now

actively contributing to the climate change impact assessment and adaption work in their respective

countries. The project fully supported two PhD students who have successfully completed their

degrees.

A detailed report is appended as Annex 1.

15. Publications, Papers and Reports

Journal articles:

• Tuner NC and Rao KPC. 2013. Simulation analysis of factors affecting sorghum yield at

selected sites in Eastern and Southern Africa, with emphasis on increasing temperatures.

Agricultural Systems 121: 53–62 (HTTP://DX.DOI.ORG/10.1016/J.AGSY.2013.06.002)

• Kalungu JW, Leal Filho W and Harris D. 2013. Smallholder Farmers’ Perception of the

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Rain-fed Agricultural Practices in Semi-arid and

Sub-humid Regions of Kenya, Journal of environmental and earth science Volume 3. No. 7

• Kalungu JW and Leal Filho W. 2014. Adoption of appropriate technologies among

smallholder farmers in Kenya. Climate and development. Submitted

• Kalungu JW, Leal Filho W and Harris D. 2014. Exploring gender dynamics on perception of

climate change on farming with focus groups in Machakos and Makueni Counties, Kenya.

Progress in Development Studies. Submitted.

• Musiyiwa K, Nyamangara J, Harris D and Leal Filho W. 2014. Implications of climate

variability and change for smallholder crop production in different areas of Zimbabwe.

Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences. Accepted.

• Musiyiwa K, Nyamangara J, Harris D, and Leal Filho W. 2014. Using climate analogue

analysis in the assessment of climate impacts on cereal production on the smallholder sector

of Zimbabwe. Submitted to Climate and Development.

• Musiyiwa K, Nyamangara J, Harris D, and Leal Filho W. 2014. Assessment of farmer

preferred organizations and institutions by gender in different smallholder areas of

Zimbabwe. Submitted to special issue on ‘Gender, Governance and Agriculture’ for the

International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology. Abstract accepted

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Books and Book chapters:

• Kalungu J, et al. Assessing the Impact of Rainwater Harvesting Technology as Adaptation

Strategy for Rural Communities in Makueni County, Kenya, Handbook of Climate Change

Adaptation, Article ID:367546 , Chapter ID:23

• Walter Leal Filho, Anthony O Esilaba, Rao KPC and Sridhar G (Eds). 2014. Adapting African

Agriculture to Climate Change Transforming Rural Livelihoods. Springer Verlag, In Press

• Musiyiwa K, Nyamangara J, Harris D, and Leal Filho W. (2014). An assessment of gender

sensitive adaptations options to climate change in smallholder areas of Zimbabwe, using

climate analogue analysis. In: (Eds) Walter Leal Filho, Anthony O Esilaba, Rao KPC and G

Sridhar. Adapting African Agriculture to Climate Change. Transforming Rural Livelihoods. The

contribution of land and water management to enhanced food security and climate change

adaptation and mitigation in the African continent. Springer Verlag. In Press.

• De Trincheria J, Craufurd P, Harris D, Mannke F, Nyamangara J, Rao KPC, Leal Filho W.

2014. Adapting agriculture to climate change by developing promising strategies using

analogue locations in Eastern and Southern Africa: a systematic approach to develop

practical solutions In: (Eds) Walter Leal Filho, Anthony O Esilaba, Rao KPC and Sridhar G.

Adapting African Agriculture to Climate Change. Transforming Rural Livelihoods. The

contribution of land and water management to enhanced food security and climate change

adaptation and mitigation in the African continent. Springer Verlag. In Press.

• Justice Nyamangara, Esther N Masvaya, Ronald D Tirivavi and Adelaide Munodawafa.

2014. Grain yield responses of selected crop varieties at two pairs of temperature analogue

sites in sub-humid and semi-arid areas of Zimbabwe. In: (Eds) Walter Leal Filho, Anthony O

Esilaba, Rao KPC and Sridhar G. Adapting African Agriculture to Climate Change.

Transforming Rural Livelihoods. The contribution of land and water management to

enhanced food security and climate change adaptation and mitigation in the African

continent. Springer Verlag. In Press.

• Joseph M Miriti, Anthony O Esilaba, Rao KPC, Joab W Onyango, Stephen K Kimani,

Peterson M Njeru and John K Lekasi. 2014. Yield potential of maize, sorghum, common bean

and pigeon pea varieties in a very cool-wet region of Nyandarua county, Central Kenya. In:

(Eds) Walter Leal Filho, Anthony O Esilaba, Rao KPC and G Sridhar. Adapting African

Agriculture to Climate Change. Transforming Rural Livelihoods. The contribution of land and

water management to enhanced food security and climate change adaptation and

mitigation in the African continent. Springer Verlag. In Press.

• Ngugi LW, Rao KPC, Oyoo A and Kwena K. 2014. Opportunities for coping with climate

change and variability through adoption of soil and water conservation technologies in semi-

arid eastern Kenya. In: (Eds) Walter Leal Filho, Anthony O Esilaba, Rao KPC and Sridhar G.

Adapting African Agriculture to Climate Change. Transforming Rural Livelihoods. The

contribution of land and water management to enhanced food security and climate change

adaptation and mitigation in the African continent. Springer Verlag. In Press.

Theses:

• Jokasta W Kalungu. 2014. Gender and Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya: Sub Title: An

Assessment of the impacts of climate change on smallholder farming practices and the role

14

of gender on adaptation strategies in semi-arid and sub-humid regions of Kenya. PhD.

Thesis. School of Science and the Environment, Faculty of Science and Engineering,

Manchester Metropolitan University. Manchester, UK

• Musiyiwa Kumbirai. 2014. How Does The Gender of Household Heads Affect Smallholding

and its Adaptation to Climate Change in Rural Zimbabwe? PhD. Thesis. School of Science

and the Environment, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan

University. Manchester, UK

• Moyo, Martin. 2013. Coping with variable climates: the usefulness of weather and climate

related information for farm management by smallholder farmers in semi-arid Zimbabwe.

PhD Thesis submitted to the University of Reading, School of Agriculture, Policy and

Development

• Jay Kainnayan. 2013. Gender disaggregated analysis of adoption of agricultural water

management technologies in lower eastern Kenya. Master Thesis submitted to University

College of London. MSc Thesis, Centre for Development, Environment and Policy (CeDEP),

School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London.

• Lucy Wangui. 2013. The risk and benefit analysis of investments in soil and water

conservation technologies under variable and changing climate in lower eastern Kenya.

Master’s thesis submitted to Kenyatta University, Kenya. MSc. Thesis. School of Agriculture

and Enterprise Development, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya

Workshop presentations:

• Rao KPC. 2013. Enhancing Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Variability and Change in

Eastern Africa. Key note presentation at the 27th Soil Science Society of East Africa and the

6th Africa Soil Science Society, 20-25 October, 2013. Nakuru, Kenya

• Rao KPC, Njiru E, Wafula B, Onyango J and Esilaba A. 2013. Impact of climate change on

performance of major crops and varieties. Presentation at the 27th Soil Science Society of

East Africa and the 6th Africa Soil Science Society, 20-25 October, 2013. Nakuru, Kenya

• Onyango JW, Esilaba AO and KPC Rao. 2013. Critical analysis of tillage practices with fertility

levels in maize and populations in beans as adaptation measures to climate change to

enhance food security at Kabete

• Oyoo A, KPC Rao, and Wnagui L. 2013. Generating location specific future climates to assess

impacts of climate change on agricultural systems. Presentation at the 27th Soil Science

Society of East Africa and the 6th Africa Soil Science Society, 20-25 October, 2013. Nakuru,

Kenya

• Wangui L, KPC Rao and Kizito K. 2013. Opportunities for coping with climate variability: a

case of Mwania and Makindu watersheds in lower Eastern Kenya. Presentation at the 27th

Soil Science Society of East Africa and the 6th Africa Soil Science Society, 20-25 October,

2013. Nakuru, Kenya

• Leal W, Mannke F and Trincheria J. 2013. CALESA: Adapting agriculture to climate change:

Developing promising strategies using analogue locations in Eastern and Southern Africa.

Presentation at the 27th Soil Science Society of East Africa and the 6th Africa Soil Science

Society, 20-25 October, 2013. Nakuru, Kenya

15

• Harris D. Hypothesis of Hope Revisited: Consequences of Climate Change for Rural

Households’ Agricultural Income Presentation at the 27th Soil Science Society of East Africa

and the 6th Africa Soil Science Society, 20-25 October, 2013. Nakuru, Kenya

• Nyamangara J, Masvaya EN, Tirivavi R, Munodawafa A and Harris D. Grain yield of selected

crops at four climate analogue locations in Zimbabwe Presentation at the 27th Soil Science

Society of East Africa and the 6th Africa Soil Science Society, 20-25 October, 2013. Nakuru,

Kenya

• Jokastah Wanzuu Kalungu, Walter Leal Filho and Davis Harris. Exploring gender dynamics

on perception of climate change on farming with focus groups in Machakos and Makueni

Counties, Kenya Presentation at the 27th Soil Science Society of East Africa and the 6th

Africa Soil Science Society, 20-25 October, 2013. Nakuru, Kenya

• Musiyiwa K, Nyamangara J, Harris D, and Leal Filho W. 2013. “An assessment of maize yield

response to climatic and non-climatic variables and perceptions of crop production

constraints of Zimbabwean smallholder farmers” The “European Climate Change Adaptation

Conference (ECCA) 2013, 18 -20 March, 2013. Hamburg, Germany. (ECCA conference:

http://eccaconf.eu/file.php/ECCA_Programm_Book.pdf )

• Musiyiwa K, Leal Filho W, Nyamangara J and Harris D. 2013. Assessment of Innovations for

Sustainable Livelihoods for Smallholder Farmers in Response to Changing Climates in Semi-

Arid Zimbabwe through Farmer Perceptions. The “International Conference on Innovation

Systems for Resilient Livelihoods: Connecting Theory to Practice”. Regional Agricultural and

Environmental Innovations Network- Africa (RAEIN-Africa). 26-28 August, 2013.

Johannesburg, South Africa, (RAEIN- Africa - http://www.raein-africa.org)

• Musiyiwa K, Leal Filho W, Nyamangara J and Harris D. 2013. An assessment of gender

sensitive adaptations options to climate change in smallholder areas of Zimbabwe, using

climate analogue analysis and considering farmer perceptions. The 27th Soil Science Society

of East Africa and the 6th Africa Soil Science Society- Transforming Rural Livelihoods in

Africa: How can land and water management contribute to enhanced food security and

address climate change adaptation and mitigation? 20-25 October, 2013. Nakuru, Kenya.

• Kalungu JW, et al. (2013), Exploring gender dynamics on perception of climate change on

farming with focus groups in Machakos and Makueni Counties, Kenya, submitted for 27th

SSSEA conference paper, to be held, October, Naivasha , Kenya

Newsletters:

• CALESA 1st Newsletter (April 2012): http://www.africa-

adapt.net/media/resources/848/calesa_newsletter_01.pdf

• CALESA 2nd Newsletter (11 February 2013) http://www.calesa-project.net/news/second-

newsletter-out-insights-of-some-of-the-main-research-activities-carried-out-so-far-during-

2012-by-calesa%E2%80%99s-partnership)

• CALESA 3rd Newsletter (24 April 2013): http://www.calesa-project.net/news/third-

newsletter-out-activities-of-the-calesa-project-in-zimbabwe

16

• CALESA 4th Newsletter (August 2013) http://www.calesa-project.net/news/fourth-

newsletter-out-building-capacities-for-future-adaptation

• CALESA 5th Newsletter (14 March 2014) http://www.calesa-project.net/news/the-fifth-

issue-of-the-calesa-newsletter-is-out

• CALESA 6th Newsletter (08 May 2014) http://www.calesa-project.net/news/the-final-issue-

of-the-calesa-newsletter-is-out

Web site:

Project web site: http://www.calesa-project.net/

On-Line articles:

Two online articles were published http://www.new-ag.info/en/news/newsitem.php?a=2430 and

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/pairing-up-farmers-with-future-climate-

twins (in English) and http://inter-reseaux.org/ressources-thematiques/article/adapter-l-agriculture-

au (in French).