adaptation to climate change an initial view lr - aug 2013

Adapta&on to Climate Change: An Ini&al View 1 August 2013 | Tim Jones | Dave McCormick

Topics covered include: §  Foresight and Future Agenda §  The Context For Adapta@on §  Adapta@on Policy and Plans §  Business Risk §  Varia@ons by Geography

§  Impact of Ci@es §  Levels of Adapta@on Ac@vity §  Implica@ons and Trade Offs

This document summarises views shared by several companies as part of a recent project with BSR to explore a@tudes and emerging strategies around adapta&on to climate change

Contents

As change accelerates in an increasingly connected world, more companies are looking further ahead to beEer understand emerging opportuni&es and challenges

Foresight and Future Agenda

Organisa&ons increasingly want to iden&fy and understand both the an&cipated and unexpected changes

so that they can be beEer prepared for the future


The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program that looks at the big issues for 2020 so that

organisa&ons can beEer focus and s&mulate innova&on


The Context for Adapta&on

As we experience more frequent extreme weather, many around the world are now recognising while others are star&ng

to respond to the wider impacts of climate change

Extreme Weather

Most organisa&ons have primarily been focusing efforts on changing behaviours and strategies in order to mi&gate the

effects of climate change and change direc&on

Mi&ga&on of Climate Change

Much of the ini&al debate and ac&on has been around trying to keep global warming under 20C and carbon at 350 ppm – unfortunately both targets that now look unachievable

Mi&ga&on of Climate Change

Many see that at the current rate of change, we may well hit 500ppm of CO2 concentra&on by 2050 and that, on average, the

world will be well over 40C warmer

The Big Challenge Ahead

Although mi&ga&on is a primary focus for many, some recognise that wai&ng for its impact is not enough and so we also need to adapt to the implica&ons of climate change

Need for Adapta&on

Adapta&on Policy and Plans

The UNFCCC supports the formula&on and implementa&on of na&onal adapta&on plans and programs that consider

approaches to address damage associated with climate change


Several governments around the world are seen to be taking a lead on changing the regulatory frameworks around adapta&on

and resilience to climate change


Na&onal adapta&on plans are star&ng to drive ac&on in specific sectors and as climate is seen as a threat to na&onal

security this will push adapta&on up the agenda


Business Risk

Adapta&on to climate change is fast emerging on to the risk radars of a number of leading organisa&ons and governments

and is therefore becoming more visible to society

Business Risk

Several organisa&ons see the three areas of climate change mi&ga&on, resilience and adapta&on through their own view of business risk such as maintaining water supply

Business Risk

For example, food and drink companies are focusing on the pressures on crop varie&es and the need to respond to such issues as increased drought and saltwater tolerance

Business Risk

Several organisa&ons are also recognising wider risks around such issues as workforce support, security of supply chains and

poten&al shiXs in associated consumer a@tudes

Business Risk

For some, the worry of focusing on the immediate, short-‐term visible risk may result in ac&ons that have a longer term

nega&ve impact with unintended consequences

Business Risk

Physical Environment Changes

Opera@onal Rules and Constraints

Social Expecta@ons and ShiPs

As a result, some leading organisa&ons are seeing adapta&on as having direct linkages to their ability to operate globally and

effec&vely serve customers, stakeholders and society

Business Risk for Adapta&on

Varia&ons by Geography

There is broad recogni&on that adapta&on measures are shaped by the specific context and so adapta&on efforts must be focused at the local not global generic level


Globally the impact of climate is well recognised as being unevenly distributed with some countries more exposed to

change than others


India is one loca&on where adapta&on involves trade-‐offs between such issues and clean water and energy supply with

market-‐orientated regula&on playing a key role


Insurance companies see that weather related catastrophes have tripled since 1980: In 2012 the US experienced

11 extreme events each cos&ng more that $1bn


Impact of Ci&es

Adapta&on is at the forefront of thinking and development for all ci&es globally with organisa&ons such as the C40 and ICLEI

increasingly ac&ng as catalysts for this

Impact of Ci&es

Already 22 of the top 50 wealthiest ci&es are prone to serious flooding which will also impact housing, poverty,

cost of energy and social breakdown

Impact of Ci&es

The ten most ‘at risk ci&es’ globally already have combined popula&ons of over 150m and are projected by the UN to have

grown by a further 50% adding another 75m by 2025

Impact of Ci&es

Some can envisage a situa&on where major ci&es may start to have to self-‐insure and rebuild – In the wake of hurricane Sandy

New York is just one of the first to be considering this

Impact of Ci&es

Levels of Adapta&on Ac&vity

While mi&ga&on of climate change is very much the focus for many, for those NGOs who are star&ng to look towards a 40C

warmer world, adapta&on has been gaining trac&on

Levels of Ac&vity

However, some organisa&ons do not talk about adapta&on as it implies defeat on mi&ga&on, is increasingly poli&cal and may well alienate key stakeholders and customers

Levels of Ac&vity

Even though they may not be using the term ‘adapta&on’, others are star&ng to be more open to the issues raised

by a substan&al shiX in the world’s climate

Levels of Ac&vity

Mi&ga&on ac&on is significantly more mature in many organiza&ons and for the majority of companies it is s&ll early

days for adapta&on considera&ons

Levels of Ac&vity

We see a matrix of different types of responses to climate change adapta&on that looks at both different levels of

adapta&on and well as levels of impact

Levels of Ac&vity

Adapt to increased intensity

and frequency of climate

events

Adapt to

impacts of climate change

Respond to climate

events

Adapt to

4 degrees warmer

Adaptation: The Context

Insurance Policy Na@onal Security

Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems

Level of Impact

Leve

l of A

dapt

atio

n

Many organisa&ons see adapta&on as responding to climate change related events as and when they happen – be that flooding, drought, migra&on or other socio-‐economic shiXs

Levels of Ac&vity



events

Adapt to


Respond to climate

events

Adapt to

4 degrees warmer




Level of Impact

Leve

l of A

dapt

atio

n

Some companies, especially in the u&li&es and logis&cs arenas, are adap&ng to increased intensity and frequency of climate

events and broader implica&ons

Levels of Ac&vity



events

Adapt to


Respond to climate

events

Adapt to

4 degrees warmer




Level of Impact

Leve

l of A

dapt

atio

n

A number of food and drink companies are increasingly focused on key impacts beyond their immediate fence-‐line looking across the inbound supply chain and wider business systems

Levels of Ac&vity



events

Adapt to


Respond to climate

events

Adapt to

4 degrees warmer




Level of Impact

Leve

l of A

dapt

atio

n

Others are moving ahead to focus on the impacts of climate change across the board and extending approaches to help local

suppliers and their communi&es be beEer prepared

Levels of Ac&vity



events

Adapt to


Respond to climate

events

Adapt to

4 degrees warmer




Level of Impact

Leve

l of A

dapt

atio

n

And some organisa&ons have been suppor&ng collabora&ve projects to explore how they could best enable broader societal

and eco systems to beEer adapt to climate change

Levels of Ac&vity



events

Adapt to


Respond to climate

events

Adapt to

4 degrees warmer




Level of Impact

Leve

l of A

dapt

atio

n

Implica&ons and Trade Offs

There is a need for greater human adapta&on to climate change – around workforces and communi&es as well as preparing future genera&ons and changing a@tudes


It is clear that as we move forward adapta&on will play an increasingly important role in defining and shaping both governmental and business a@tudes and risk strategies


Although there are clear gaps around issues such as alignment between policy and business ac&ons, adapta&on will become a

significant issue for a wide range of organisa&ons


Enabling long term planning for adapta&on is difficult as short-‐termism and quick win opportuni&es are focusing thinking and

priority ac&ons in many organisa&ons


While some seek the financial jus&fica&on for inves&ng in adapta&on, others are seeing it as part of doing good business

where the benefit is shared by many


The reality facing many is that we need to act now and this requires both a clearer view of the likely impacts of adapta&on as

well as beEer understanding the specific implica&ons


For major climate change events you may have 5 years of planning but only 45 minutes to act, and then an extra 5 minutes

of &me saved is worth a lot


Physical Environment Changes

Opera@onal Rules and Constraints

Social Expecta@ons and ShiPs

Recognise the Pivotal Gaps and

Challenges

Understand and Quan@fy the

Impact

Align Objec@ves for Business, Systems

and Society

Define the Local Implica@ons and

Op@ons

Establish Collabora@on on Core Ac@vi@es

Those organisa&ons seeing adapta&on as a key challenge are now looking to form partnerships to collec&vely take on the

pivotal challenges locally

Summary

Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org [email protected]

The world’s leading open foresight program

adaptation to climate change an initial view lr - aug 2013

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