Rising Sea Level

Stephen SelkowitzSenior Advisor, Building Technology and Urban Systems, (retired)

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratoryseselkowitz@lbl.gov

Pittsburgh18 April 2018

Achieving Net Zero Energy Building Goals in High Density Urban Cities: Mission Impossible?

Breakout #2: Portfolios and Districts:Overcoming Hurdles to ZE in Humid Climates, Urban Settings and other Tough Challenges

Worst Case Scenario 2100?

Rising Sea Level

Designing for Future “Health” of the Planet

Singapore ?

To Avert These Outcomes We Need to Stop Rise in Temperature

2050 Goals:  80% Reductions in Energy/Carbon Use

Why Focus on Buildings??Total Building Energy Use; End Use Consumption

Buildings consume 40% of total U.S. energy

• 71% of electricity•54% of natural gas

No Single End Use Dominates

Building sector has:

Largest Energy Use

1. Optimize “Lifestyle” to Minimize Energy Services and Needs• e.g. Buildings and urban planning to minimize transport

2. Maximize Efficient Use of Energy to Deliver Needed Services• “Smart glass”, LED lighting, ….

3. Decarbonize energy sources that provide energy• Solar energy, wind, biofuels…..

50% Reduction for each is challenging, but plausible

50% x 50% x 50% >80% Reduction

80% Carbon Reduction in Buildings?Solution is “Simple” in Concept

“In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice.

But in practice, there is.”

Yogi Berra (baseball great, philosopher, ZNE fan)

Achieving Net Zero Energy Buildings => Energy Efficiency first reduces Loads by 60-90%;

Renewable, carbon-neutral source supplies remainder

Renewables

Load Reduction and Efficiency

NZE “Proof of Concept”: Bullitt Foundation

Can We Replicate This at Scale?

5 story office building, ~ 5000 m2, Seattle, WAhttp://www.bullittcenter.org/

Tracking NZE Progress 

Source: NBI

Continued “rapid” growth but …….

~ 5,000,000 Existing Commercial Buildings

New Construction:~ + 100,000 /year

New NZE:~ +100/year

Challenge: Increasing Scale and Impact: Need “Deep Savings” for “All Buildings”

Narrow AllBuildings

SmallImpact

DeepSavings

Dep

th

Breadth

• Improve existing technology• Tighter standards; • Tune up & retrofit programs

e.g. ESCOs 5-20% Savings

• R&D• Demonstration projects• Aggressive deployment

e.g. Research, Demonstrations50% Saved -> Zero Net Energy

NZESolutions

‐‐ Integrated Systems Approach

‐‐Capture social equity, health, comfort, productivity

‐‐Design Tools + Process, Life Cycle Operations

But It Could Be Even More Challenging…• U.S. has temperate climates with seasons

– Cold climates allow solar/heat loss tradeoffs

• Lots of (Cheap) Land  

– Low Density, Low rise buildings

– Good Solar Access

• What if You Lived in a Hot, Humid Climate?

• Limited, Expensive Land Area

– Dense Urban Environment w/ High Rise Construction

• Welcome to Singapore !

1. Definitions – NZE: Does Zero = 0?  Must it?• Positive Energy• Net Zero• Nearly Zero• Zero‐ Ready• Zero Net Electric • ZNE Verified• ZNE Emerging• Ultra‐Low Energy• Super‐Low‐Energy

Boundaries for Energy Accounting?

Where does energy come from: Site: Building-> Local -> DistantMeasured/modeled? Site/source? Source: Building <-> Powerplant

2. Designing for People• What Infrastructure Do People Need?

– For supporting Equipment, e.g. “Plug Loads”

– How do Building Owners manage Tenant Loads?

• Under What Conditions Do People Live and Work?

– Performance e.g. Light levels

– Comfort e.g. Temperature, Humidity

• Minimum acceptable vs Ideal?

• Variability between people

• Uniformity across indoor environment

• Acceptable deviation from desired

– Health, Well‐being

• $$:  People Cost = 100 x Energy Costs

1980

2020

3. R&D: Driving Innovation‐ Reducing Risk & CostCool for Comfort, not Temperature

• How Can We Minimize Cooling Loads? 

– Aggressively Manage Solar Gain…e.g. smart glass     

– Utilize Daylight 

– Vegetation for Shading and Evapo‐Transpiration

– Address Local Heat Island Effects with Plantings

• How Can We Cool with Minimum Energy Use?– Comfort as a “system”

• Dehumidify, Ventilative Cooling

– Chiller Plant Optimization

– Cool storage

Systems Optimization, ValidationUser Testbeds: Test and Validate Integrated Building

Systems and Occupant Response

LBNL FLEXLAB Singapore SKYLAB

Re‐examining Thermal Comfort:Radiant Ceiling Panels + Fans   vs.   VAV ?

4. Tools, Process, Education and TrainingNeed Smarter Designers, Better Design Process and Enhanced Tools

• Skilled A/E teams – new professionals and retraining for existing

• Skilled Contractor, Operator teams

• BIM – manage Life‐cycle data from Design to Operations

• Experience = Lower Project Cost

• Wish List‐ New Process Models– New Business Models for Owner Engagement, Financing

– Design – Build, Design‐ Assist, Public‐Private Partnership (PPP)

• Wish List – New Tools, Data– Early Design Tools to Explore Strategy

– Optimization Tools to Refine Designs

– Reliable Cost Estimation Data for New Technologies and System

Commissioning Tools & Active Tests

Design

Operations

Design ToolsEnergy Tools

Retrofit Tools

Automated Diagnostic

Tools

Commissioning

Construction

Information Monitoring& Diagnostic SystemLocal / web-based

Metrics,Program

Requirements

Building Information

Model

Maintenance & Operations

Occupancy

Renovationand

Decommissioning

Data modelsBig DataBIM buildingSMART

Design Process:  Building Life‐Cycle ViewDelivering Design Promises Throughout Operations

Ratings

Ratings

5. Renewable Energy and Grid Integration:  Solar Electricity From Buildings

• PV Systems Hardware Costs have fallen below $1/W

• Integration Challenges

– Design, Aesthetics

– Location and Available Area – Dense Urban

• Roof top best but limited 

• Vertical Surfaces• BIPV Glazing/Shading• (Unwanted Shading)

Controls integration Cost/Risk tradeoffsPeople Buildings “Smart Grid”

Heating

Cooling

Lighting

PeakCoolingLoad

ChillerSize

LightingDesignStrategy

Energy,PeakElectricDemand,LoadShape

CentralPower

Generation$$ $

$$

$

Initial Cost Annual Cost

Office Eq.

Onsite Power

Generation

$

6. Don’t Forget to RetrofitExisting Buildings…

• By 2050, most building stock will be pre‐2030…

• Aggressive “Deep Retrofit” can produce deep energy savings “NZE ready”

–Best when coupled with renovation for business reasons

–Major focus now in Europe/U.S.

DPR Construction San Diego Corporate Office 

Zero Energy Building @ BCA Academy

7. Policy/Program to Reach ZNE/Carbon Goals

• Goals‐ BHAG ( Big Hairy Audacious Goal)– Distinct Goals by Sector

• Strategy, Plan, Pathway:  “3 cycles to 2030”– Time frame:  “5 year plan”

– Resources: Deployment, Research, Management

– Tune Strategy by Sector: e.g. “Net Positive for Low Rise Bldg”

• Execution– Strong but Flexible Management

– Feedback – “How are we Doing”?

– Data:  “You Can’t Manage What You Don’t Measure”

– Course Corrections…

Significant Impact Comes Only from Comprehensive Balanced Program

To routinely deliver high performance, low-energy, ZNE buildings at scale we must find a balance between:

Solutions fail without this balance

Markets,

Economics

EducationPeople

Innovation

Technology

DesignProcess

Policy

Defining a Vision/Pathway to a Low Carbon Future

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”

Henry Ford

Who has defined and implemented a path forward?

Europe: Looks good on paper but part of EU struggling…??

U.S.: “Pausing” Nationally While Cities and States lead…..

Singapore: even greater technical challenges, but….

No one has an assured path to success

Lets take some closer looks…