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  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic marketsWP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    Göran Berndes Dept of Energy and Environment Chalmers University of Technology Göteborg SwedenGöteborg, Sweden

    Elobio 5th progress meeting 100324

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    Overarching questions for WP6

    How may biofuel policies – including their specific instruments such as obligatory targets – influence other (stationary) energy markets for lignocellulosic biomass?

    Conversely how can stationary energy development influence in positive andConversely, how can stationary energy development influence – in positive and negative ways – the prospects for 2nd generation biofuels?

    Can policymakers improve conditions for capturing and enhancingy g g synergies between biofuels production and stationary energy?

    Can stationary energy sector compete with the food sector in the same way as has been seen for biofuels for transport?the same way as has been seen for biofuels for transport?

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    The quick-and-dirty summary of findingsq y y g

    - How large is the stationary sector? - LARGE!

    - How much can it pay for the biomass? A LOT!- A LOT!

    - Will it outcompete biofuel producers? - IT DEPENDS...IT DEPENDS...

    - Can policy influence how things develop? - OH YES!

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    Summary of findings

    - Biomass competition may arise between stationary and transport energy uses

    modeling indicate that biofuel obligations may distract from the most- modeling indicate that biofuel obligations may distract from the most cost effective biomass use for climate change mitigations

    -increasing importance of polygeneration plants that produce a range of products – biofuels, materials, heat and electricity – may place intersectoral biomass competition in a different context (example given later)

    - non-bioenergy technology development as well as public acceptance and other non-technical aspects can also influence biomass demand in the two sectors; CCS development may be critical determinant

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    - Stationary energy sector may become a large user of bibiomass

    800

    Demand growth?

    600

    700

    800

    m [G

    W e]

    Investment in new generation capacity is required for replacing old capacity + meeting demand

    400

    500

    600

    m p

    re se

    nt s

    ys te

    m old capacity + meeting demand growth

    200

    300

    400

    ty re

    m ai

    ni ng

    fr om

    0

    100

    200

    C ap

    ac i

    0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

    Year Hydro Nuclear Lignite Hard coal Natural gas Oil Wind (on- and offshore) Biomass & waste Others

  • CCS P th f EU 27 ( l N )

    WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets CCS – Pathway for EU-27 (plus Norway) 30% CO2 emission reduction by 2020 and 85% by 2050

    5000

    4000

    4500

    5000

    3500

    4000

    [T W

    h] New Gas Hard coal CCS

    2500

    3000

    y ge

    ne ra

    tio n

    Gas

    biomass & waste New Hard coal

    Lignite CCS

    New Nuclear

    Wind

    1500

    2000

    E le

    ct ric

    it

    Lignite

    Hard coal

    New Wind New Biomass & waste

    500

    1000

    Hydro

    Nuclear

    Hydro replacements

    0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Year

    Hydro

  • N CCS P th f EU 27 ( l N )

    WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    5000

    No CCS – Pathway for EU-27 (plus Norway) 30% CO2 emission reduction by 2020 and 85% by 2050

    4000

    4500 New Nuclear

    3000

    3500

    n [T

    W h]

    New Hard coal

    New Gas

    Wind

    2500

    3000

    ty g

    en er

    at io

    n

    Gas

    biomass & waste New Biomass & waste

    New Hard coalWind

    1500

    2000

    E le

    ct ric

    it

    Lignite

    Hard coal

    New Wind

    500

    1000

    Hydro

    Nuclear

    Hydro replacements

    0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Year

    Hydro

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    Magnitude implicationsMagnitude implications…

    1000 TWh requires about 9 EJ

    4500

    5000

    New Nuclear

    1000 TWh requires about 9 EJ of biomass at 40% conversion efficiency

    3000

    3500

    4000

    tio n

    [T W

    h]

    New Hard coal

    New Gas

    Wind

    Comparison: - EU25 ind. roundwood: ca. 6 EJ

    1500

    2000

    2500

    E le

    ct ric

    ity g

    en er

    at

    Lignite

    Hard coal

    Gas

    biomass & waste

    New Wind

    New Biomass & waste - EU 25 cereals: 4-5 EJ - Agri residue pot: 3-4 EJ - 10 ton dm/ha on 60 Mha: 12 EJ

    0

    500

    1000

    2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Y

    Hydro

    Nuclear

    Hydro replacements

    2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Year

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    Summary of findings

    - integration of biofuel production in energy/industry combines can improve overall efficiency and economic performance

    - Heat sinks provided by district heating systems can support a large scale establishment of biofuel/heat/power polygeneration plants

    - competitiveness against CHP production crucial determinant of prospects for biofuel/heat/power polygeneration plants

    restrictions on third party access to district heating networks can- restrictions on third party access to district heating networks can be a barrier against implementation

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    - District heating systems are significant heat sinks in EU - the diagram shows heat sink allocation for making productive use of surplus heat from biofuel production corresponding to 10% of projected transport fuel use in 2020

     

    400

    450 PJ

    petroleum HOB

    natural gas HOB

    300

    350 coal HOB

    petroleum CHP

    Natural gas CHP

    coal CHP

    150

    200

    250 CBH

    other

    0

    50

    100

    0

    A B CZ DK EE FIN F D HU I LV LT L NL PL P SK SI S UK

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    - District heating systems are significant heat sinks in EU - an ethanol production plant can also serve the function as heat sink and solid biofuel production plant in energy/industry combines; co-siting with coal power plants suitable for co-firing can be an attractive option

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    Summary of findings

    - Stationary energy most important near term market for lignocellulosic biomass

    - but may contribute to 2nd gen biofuels development by inducing earlier development of the supply infrastructure for 2nd gen biofuel feedstocks

    - biomass co-firing appears to be an attractive early option with longer term prospects depending of C price, CCS availability and attainable biomass share in the fuel mix

    - in case biomass co-firing cannot remain competitive, expansion of 2nd gen biofuel production can benefit from an established feedstock supply infrastructure

    -many power plants can import their biomass: specific instruments may be required for linking co-firing with domestic biomass production

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    - Co-firing can be a significant market for li ll l i bi i MS

    250 (PJ/year)

    lignocellulosic biomass in many MS

    200

    250 Case 1: ≤40 years Case 2: ≤30 years

    46

    139

    100

    150 73

    39

    0

    50

    A B BU CZ DK EE FIN F D EL HUIRL I NL PL P RO SK SI E S UK

    5 14 56

    63

    20 23 6 6 6

    88

    17 63

    34 31

    13 17 16 26 0.3

    A B BU CZ DK EE FIN F D EL HUIRL I NL PL P RO SK SI E S UK

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    - Co-firing can be a significant market... - co-firing complementary to smaller scale (heat) markets - contrasting business logics: small scale supply vs. large end use

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    - Co-firing can be a significant market...and bridging option - 2nd gen biofuel production can exploit the established supply infrastructure as co-firing is phased out

    Case 2Case 2

    400

    500

    600

    er y

    ea r

    Other MS

    UK

    Spain

    100

    200

    300

    00

    J of

    b io

    m as

    s p

    Poland

    Germany

    0

    100

    20 06

    20 08

    20 10

    20 12

    20 14

    20 16

    20 18

    20 20

    20 22

    20 24

    20 26

    20 28

    20 30

    20 32

    20 34

    P J

  • WP6: Biofuels and lignocellulosic markets

    Summary of findings

    - Paying capacity for biomass can become very high

    -food prices may incr

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