abel presentation 05.21.2014

7/22/2019 Abel Presentation 05.21.2014

1/21

Regional Economic Press Briefing

May 21, 2014

The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily representthose of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.


2/21


3/21

Overview

Recent Economic Performance New York City remains on strong growth trajectory, some weaknessin Northern NJ to start the year, and signs of firming in Puerto Rico

Status of the Jobs Recovery A growing number of places in the region have gained back the

jobs lost during the Great Recession

Types of Jobs Lost and Gained Middle-skill jobs were hardest hit during the recession and have

not come back

During the recovery, job growth has been concentrated at the

higher and lower ends of the skills distribution

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 2


4/21

Recent EconomicPerformance


5/21

Regional Economic ActivityIndexes of Coincident Economic Indicators

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico.Note: The Puerto Rico composite index is based on a different methodology than the indexes produced by the FRBNY. 4

80

90

100

110

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

New YorkState

New Jersey

New York

City

Puerto Rico

Apr

Mar

Last BriefingShading indicates NBER recession.

Index (December 2007 = 100)


6/21

Recent Job GrowthIndex of Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com. 5

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14

Upstate NY

NorthernNew Jersey

DownstateNY

Puerto Rico

UnitedStates

Apr

Last Briefing

Index (U.S. Employment Trough Feb 2010 = 100)


7/21

Sectors Driving Regional Job GrowthChange in Employment over Past Year (as of Apri l 2014)

6Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.

-16,000

-12,000

-8,000

-4,000

0

4,000

-3,000

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Downstate NY

Northern NJ

Upstate NY

Puerto Rico

Health & Education Services

Professional &Business Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Government


8/21

Status of theJobs Recovery


9/218

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.Note: Putnam and Bergen are the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester

and Bergen-Hudson-Passaic Special BLS Areas.

Recovered All Lost Jobs

Recovered 3/4 of Lost Jobs

Recovered Less Than 3/4 of Lost Jobs

No RecoveryNewark

Elmira Binghamton

PutnamFair-field

Edison

Kingston

NYC

PuertoRico

Share of Lost Jobs Gained BackLocal Total Employment Trough to Apri l 2014

GlensFalls

US = 99 percent

Buffalo

Rochester Syracuse

Utica

Albany

Ithaca


10/21

Comparison to Previous RecessionsTotal Employment Indexed to Local Employment Peak


90

95

100

105

110Index (Start of Downturn = 100)

1stYear

2ndYear

3rdYear

4thYear

5thYear

6thYear

Start of LocalRecession

Early 1990sDownturn

Early 2000sDownturn RecentDownturn

Apr

U.S.


11/21

Comparison to Previous RecessionsTotal Employment Indexed to Local Employment Peak


90

95

100

105

110

Upstate NY

New York City

Northern New Jersey

90

95

100

105

110 U.S.

Index (Start of Downturn = 100)

Early 1990sDownturn

Early 2000s

Downturn

Recent

Downturn

1stYear

2ndYear

3rdYear

4thYear

5thYear

6thYear


12/21

Types of JobsLost and Gained


13/21

Grouping Occupations into Skill CategoriesBased on 2013 Median Wage, United States

12Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics.

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Higher Skill Middle Skil l Lower SkillManagement

Computer & MathLegal

EngineeringBusiness & Finance

Healthcare PractitionerSciences

EducationArt s & EntertainmentInstallation & Repair

Social ServicesConstruction

Protective ServicesAdminis trative Support

ProductionTransportation

Healthcare SupportSales

Building MaintenancePersonal Care

FarmingFood Preparation


14/21

Job Change During the Great RecessionPercent Change, United States, 2007 to 2010

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics. 13

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%Higher Skill Lower SkillMiddle Skill

UnitedStates

1.0%

-9.3%

-2.6%


15/21

Job Change During the Great RecessionPercent Change, Region, 2007 to 2010


-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%Higher Skill Lower SkillMiddle Skill

DownstateNY

UpstateNY

NorthernNJ

PuertoRico


16/21

Job Change During the RecoveryPercent Change, United States, 2010 to 2013


-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%Higher Skill Middle Skill Lower Skill

UnitedStates

7.8%

1.9%

6.0%


17/21

Job Change During the RecoveryPercent Change, Region, 2010 to 2013


-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%Higher Skill Middle Skill Lower Skill

DownstateNY

UpstateNY

NorthernNJ

PuertoRico


18/21

A Shrinking MiddleShare of Jobs by Skill Group, 2007 and 2013


28% 29%

52% 49%

20% 22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

HigherSkill

MiddleSkill

LowerSkill

2007 2013

United States

28% 30% 27% 28% 26% 27% 25% 27%

50% 47% 54% 50% 52% 49%60% 55%

22% 23% 20% 21% 22% 23%16% 17%

2007 2013 2007 2013 2007 2013 2007 2013

Downstate NY Upstate NY Northern NJ Puerto Rico


19/21

Summary

A growing number of places in the region have gained backthe number of jobs lost during the Great Recession

However, the typesof jobs in the region have changed Middle-skill jobs lost during the recession have not come back

Higher- and lower-skill jobs have grown during the recovery

Job opportunities in the middle have continued to shrink

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 18


20/21


21/21

Unemployment RatesSeasonally Adjusted, Local Peak and April 2014

Source: U S Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy com 21

10.0%

8.9%

10.1%9.7%

16.9%

6.3%6.7%

7.9%

6.9%

14.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

United States New York New York City New Jersey Puerto Rico

Peak

Current

abel presentation 05.21.2014

Documents