abbott, sequence analysis - new methodes for old ideas

8/10/2019 Abbott, Sequence Analysis - New Methodes for Old Ideas

1/21

Anl Rv Cgt R g d

SEQUNCE AALYSIS: NewMthods for Old Idas

ndew bboDpent of Sioogy University o Chicago Cicago, inois

YWORDS: methology aignment, stage

ABSTRCT

A wde vey o work n socl scence conces seuence o even oenomen. Tis essy reviews concets o seuence an meto or n-yzn euence Ate be enon icuion I coner equence

tertue rom vous e I ten dicu ecent metoooe o euencenyis review tewise roces ike Mrkovin nd event isoy ny we woe euence oce etin on new eveoment nbooy nd ote ied

A uiet revoution is unewy in oci science We e tuin rom unitsto context om ttibute to connection om cue to event e cne mny nteceents: te exustion o ou o dim ou neen dereo cne te new owers o couers. It so s mny conseuences newrea or emiric work new meoooies eiscovery o imont oteories.

Ti ey conce te teo cet o ti move tow context tutowrd roces nd events tt tken se in sometin ce sequenceanalysis. oud be undeood seuence nys (A) is no icutecniue ike event istory nysis. I i rte oy o uesions ou

oci rocesses an coection o tecniues avibe to nswer tem ein wit eview o te tu tow contex octin A wtin roder cssiction o oce to soci ie. I ten conside viety o

emic itetue tat rie roem aroae or A. Tis secion eds

6-575/5$5

Ann

u.Rev.Sociol.1995.21:93113.Downloadedfromwww.annualre

views.org

byUniversitedeMontrealo

n04/23/14.Forpersonaluseonly

.


2/21

BB

nto a dscusson of he basc questons addessable wthn SA and a loatonof these queton hn g of methoooge ppcbe to uence t. hen consder soe ethos for sequence analysis.

Mny ppently pte eveopments n cuent socoogy e vtsof one penoenon: a ephss on context By context, mean he splye phenoena suounng a case. I do not nvoke e connoatons of eexvty hat have beome customay n the posmodest usage of "context. ean sply ht oologs eem less wllng n heetofoe to dech casesfo the netok of othe cses an po tmes

Fo my yeas ou us ppoch n soology has en to hnk aboutcases nendent of one nothe n often of the pst We chacteze casesby popetes ke gene ce totaans o bueaucatzton and then ee pe e cnnecte tgete n meng e c cuscn O ets e une most excusvey on such oe of oety n they hve pouce uch nteestng kowege

On the othe hn ths me s mjo pobems. t oesn't o vey wellby t wn sn Vne expne ten m n eect e tensubstatvely mnml epte the stttcl gnnce Rthe th cmulon we see mnng et. eve te me' mpon eebassng t best (s ws ecognze by sme of ts founes see Bau

Duncn 1967). We asume ntecae nepenence even whe ou theossfocus on nteactn. We tk bot cusalty he ou theosts emphaszesl cton O ces e e wt sttement bot e nd bectn "ng tng even e tee ne pepe ng ngBetween the two e meme et jt- stes pecfyng tht f theeope typcay o such n uch to each othe then e vbes w bereltd as so a o (Abbott 1992b).

Menwhe ee e es of scogc ese tt ey cente onpobem of event n cton n te tempo context wt we mght c

sequence poblems The vaous ltetes elate to te fe couse e pbby the gest ch e bt te tge of tetes ete to ceocupatonal cmnal ognzatonauns a close secon. Hee he cenralpbe een encng te teet "eentty of these ltetuet te neentngy nneet te gt peee metge

Beyond socology supsngly the ssue of sequence an tempoalty smuch le of pobem Suence of event hve a ong eech htoy npygy n ve enjye eent ence em Lngutcs tn seene ee s e cegy

Befoe coneng te eene tete gve me cncepts toset the stge. By men an ee t of eements. n e pesentppe te euence w wy e tep bt mthemtcy the uneyng

Ann


views.org



.


3/21

SEQENCE NLYSS

popety s ode n one dmenson, so spatal sequences (e.g. the angementof ehnc goups alon tanspoton lnes) would also fall under he te.Howeve tee s no assumption of eal tme as opposed to symolc tme

so sequence ncludes thngs lke the ode of steps n a manufacturng pocesso the successve pts of a itual, whee he me nvolved s atfcal n somesense Although the ode of a sequence sometmes permts tes, as wth paallelpocesses n a manufactung pocess most often we thn of sequences asdscete sngle lsts, as n job caees. (To be sue, as moonlghtng mples,even n caees we may not have a stong ode but athe smultaneous states.The elements of a sequence ae events, dawn fm a set of all possble even

n a set of sequences, the unerse of events We can conceptualze es, n

fact, as conjunctual events dawn fom the powe set of the cuent unvesec nclues all cobnatons of basc events so thee s no eal easonto wo about the ea of a sngle unlnea oe

A numbe of popees of sequences wll be useful n the followng dscusson Fst events n a sequence can be unque o they can epeat A sequencen hch events cannot epeat one ta sapes the unvese thout epaceent, s nonn e lengt of such a seuence cannot exceed the seof the unvese; t ll not eual that se f cetan events do not happn Asequence n whch events can epeat-that s a sequence tat samples te

unvese of events wth eplacements a ecuent sequence The length ofa ecuent seuence has no lt but s ypcall set by some samplng famea lfetme a ave of ata collecton o somethng smla

Second sequences can have dependence between the sttes The mostfaml eamples of ths ae stochastc pcesses, n whch the + 1 th elementof the sequence s some speced functon of the th o pehaps earle elements Wth a nte unvese and a scala pobablt of any gven n + Ithstate ae an gven th sate, e hae the smplest such case, he Maovpocess Thee ae of couse man moe complcated aangements, patculaly when the unvese s nfnte o contnuous, as wt ntevalvalued vables Thee e ma n hheoe auoeessve schemes movngaveaes schees schees ntoucn eo and so on By contast, theemay on the othe han be mnmal ntestate depenence as n the exampleof the ode of paes n the Roman Mlanese Sac and othe tes of thevaous Catholc chuches

Thd, thee can be van egees of ependence beteen vaous wholeseuences As ason Whte noted n Chns of Oppotun (970) we

sometmes have seuences n hch he occuence of an event n an onesequence pevents that occuence n any othe thee can be only one Edtoof the Amen Jou of Sooog at once fo example Ts s tue n aloose fom fo penomena le "uppeclass ness o "okng n he fam

Annu.Rev.Sociol.1995.21:93113.D

ownloadedfromwww.annualreviews.org

byUniversitedeMontrealon04/23/14.Forpersonaluseonly

.


4/21

BB

o hr la onan ally onpal n oloy a onan on h maal lm pobl ao qn.

Foh qn an b na h fo lf o a a npnno pnn aabl omm a n mply n h pa na ollo of q. h m wh o kow how h po nqn aff h mma f a whn w y o p jobln po q o job p. ll oh m w wh o kowha ao fo ff q of bhaowha po aabl foxamp la o nn pal no mnaly?

Th fo po fom a fl famok fo analy. n looknao h ao q la w hall ha om ol

n oh no q om look fo p wh qn om bwn om o q fo l oh fo on ll oh fo aal pow.

LITEUES

ha fo my po w of qn la (1983 1990) onoloy alon. B a ha b bfl by n famla hlk a an hool-owok ao hoh h famla ln of

qn aaly. hfo ba my w o q laao h oal o ooloy pop oly a h . allaa h w l no xha

Psychooy

Th la la o q oal pyholoy Thwok h aa: oo (boaly oo naon qan ho of lopmal a

Th majo o q op ppo Typally qh a qn of ml a a pnn aabl ha aff llof po o mao. Th Polh (1987) EEG pon oon q Ba al (1991) bal jm of lo oqn an Allk (1992) jm of moo n aom opa h ay lmna. aoally h la nalpn b only a an p aabl Fnh- Go Bman (1989) fo xampl y h mpa of pably of on qno ably o ma o. Th ha bn a aa of oabl ho

a lopmn am a h al poblm of how b nh"paam han fom "no ha qal ppal ml.Tman Wllam (1984) aan h hoy of onn fo hpoblm whl a Lw al (988) pla q by amo al foal hoy of ppo.

Ann


views.org



.


5/21

QC NY

Anther sequence teratre in studes f individua cgnin cnces regenera pcs parcary memry and eang Here sequence is smetes an independen varabe ony Tus ar Tennysn (1986 exaneairing e seuence f assistance in a cputer-based eaing syse pates f sden er, and Wd Rinvang 990 eaine effec fseuence f infrmain n the abiity reca i. Se studies fcs n eeffec f seqence on jdgmen. Ths Muen e a (989 and Davis e a989 investiae effects f pn seuences n estiaes f consensus ings Peae Cevne 98 invesiga quc achorg, eened f f piacy effect n whic ery udgents inuence ater nesA f his wr n udent fas wiin he sudy f inea sequence

dependenceMo o e cove pycooy erare on seqence hwever cnces

seqence as sef an bec f ea r percepin, fen negrang thawith a cnce fr the acua sequence f ean Fr reasns hat becmecear n reecon seqences f en are bes investiated empiricay bysudyng e en of seqences I a typca sudy, inn ( 1988 nvesigateswether sudens ca remember e order wc coceps were preseedSetimes stdes cnce he reain f seqence percepin seqenceprdctn r dscrmao (Teace 1986 Grezebac Mconad 1992

but the mre charactestic sdy ties t embed eain f sequences in amre enera tery eaing r encdng f informain (Chen et a1990oer neres erare coces e aby o econsc f seqences f paia infatn Oppenhemer Lee 98 Oppenheier 985 Wyer et a985 a tpic that has as emerge in the scrip ierauespawned by he wor of Schan Abesn 197; e.g. Hue Ericson 1991.Read et a (1989 shw ncey hw reordern can radicay chane subjecs'nderstandin f te eaning f partiuar evens

A na cgntive iteraure cnces sequences f actin. Here again seuence is ypicay an independent vaabe usuay in he fr f sequencesof renforcemen (sccess of some so. A sbsana eraure sdes heeffecs f he son f cono acay renfrcemen eay n agven experence (Brger 1986 Feing arey 1990 bu ere is as anstanding and enrmus iterature n schedues f reinfrceent (eg.Penger et a 1988 There ae a few stdies f echaniss fr generatingseqences of aco (e GarcaCoer Semje 1987 n fner movementsad Io 1986 o eye movemes

Sudies f divda sequences n psycoy are sppemened by a secndmajr iterature that on nteracton Once prmnen in sca psychgygeneray (eg n he Baes adn neracton seqences are nw mrecoon as opcs n e erapy erare arer (1988 exempes heor erare o n coversao O a broader scae Saw




.


6/21

BB

Ross 989) consider escalation stuations changing the reforcementscedue of the cassca epermenta paradigm nto a mutua renforcementsstem and examning the origns of such sstems so common are studesof squence of sequences" that s studies of the dvelopment over tme ofseuena nracon paes Mas 986) examnes ts n sma groupswe e 99) provdes a Vgotskan teoretca anass of counsengsequences. Ne 987) gives a typca analss of te natural sequence ofevens" n counseng n hs case for eatment of cd ause Mse eg986) as done muc work on narate sequences n counseng akemane.. akeman Gottman 986) as one a vaiety of interaction sequencestudes.

noter interactonal lterature focuses on sequences of famly interactiongeneraly and mother-chid nteraction n particuar Con Tronick 98)examne deveopmenta pattes n mother-cd nteracton we Lam Makin 986) study such pattes hen the chld s seeking ad. Duncan Farley 99) consider the emergence o conventions in parentchild sequentialnteracons. ucch 4 has looed more roadly at sequences in famconflict

The nal psychologca sequence iterature coces developmental sequences. uc concepions-known d despsed soology as sage eo

riesare wiespread in psycoogy. good but dated revew essay is ampbel Rchie 983) which urges continuing use of deveopmental sequencesdespte arguents aganst them apel & Rche ee cleary preachng tote converted; the developmental literature cotnues to make sequence one ofts fundamental concepts. ster et al 99) consder concept deveopment nchilren and ert et al 986) focus on acquston of ecoomic ideas on hictere eists a substantial literature nother literature continues te ongstandngreseac on mora development sequences asudev Humme 98 oster

Sprnta992)

fna terature dscusses sequences of dseases and treatments. For exampe Faedda et al 99) consder response to lthum Deltto eta 99)consder smptom cange n panc dsorder and Eckson et a 992)study sequential pattes of drug use.

Overall then there s much rtng on sequence n psychoogy n most oft oweer the conceptuaato of sequence s smpe. Paculary wensequence s an ndepedent aiabe sequence s defined as smple reersaor as monotonic ascent or descent or some silarly regular patte lkeateato ope seuece paes are ever vestgate ecept as tass

for tests o cogntive functong or as ear sequences o onrecurrng statesn developmental sequeces ve thin the psychoogical iterature on interacton tere s sedo a focus on seous contecy n sequence. Wenthere s it s usualy seen a stochastc process usualy arkovan frameor.

Ann


views.org



.


7/21

Eonoms

SEQCE YSIS

Ecic like pychlgy feature evera diparate iterature e

quence There i a ngtanding iterature n equence prble i atireerch prper that tie ey t tudie f equential gae The gaeiteatue tie futhe t e pape equece pble i geer ce There i al a peciic literature equence i ket Fialythere i e writing n equence efect i advetiig ad cuptiley related t the iterature in pychlgy n equence effect i rcepti

The perati reearch literature i highy techica. Mt f it cncecheduing pbe whee ere ne achie capabe f rfring everal tk and the ct f etting up achie fr ew tak aea functi f the equece i wich the tak are dne [A favrite exaple:ang cclate cae ix ater white cae ix require e et up thanaing white cae ix after chclate! Meier et al 982 cited in Dilt Raig 1989)] Exepary paper ae Chand Chhajed (1992) Dilt Raig (1989) Dbn (992) and upta Daw (198) Pehap iteretig fr it practical utility i Nai (198) paper ther cprble hw t ake a bet electin f cadidate iterviewed equentiayce wn a the caical ec pbe Nakai 98678. Augh

thee pape ee technical they cce pbe ceta t daiy ci ifead addreed by a variety f aticig trategie They pvide iptdel fr thinkng abut cia prcee ecaue f it genei in iediateapplicati peratin reearch wrk equence and cheduig fte akea lt re practical ene tan d te re arcane ght f gae thery

In general ecnic they equence cncept are unc ice thecharactetic ve f that area i t ee aypttic ditributin therypreciey in rder t ignre e equence f iterediate tate Netheleequetia equiibriu Krep Wiln 1982) i an iprtant tpic in ge

theretic ecnic wrting eg ean pulber 1990) In equetiaeqUilibia gae player' trategie repnd t each ther give belief abutthe ret f the gae ad t infratin et gveing their kwedge f erpayer behavir The cental epirca quetin invve the gae cingt ret in ne r re equilibu pit el (98 reaxe the cutarygae eretic auptin f n exact alteating equence f ffer alwigpay at rand tie by rand payer Ecnit ie pychgithave ften ued Markvian apprache t equence a i pp (1987) tudyf invetent deciin

A related literature cnider equence within pecic aret cntextere a in the pychlgical literatue equence ay be either centra a itudie f interactn) r iply ued a an independent variabe The tc iue i reactin t certai kind f equece igna a i py

Ann


views.org



.


8/21

choogy's sequece pecepio pobem. hus, Bugsahe Noeen (986)coside eacios o secuiies makes o sequences o eaed ees (aidepede aiabe mode), hie Vickes (986) ad ae eboo (989)

sudy makes hee hee is a sequence of innoaions (ha is, a sequence ofoppouiies o abiaiy oe ones poducio coss oe he ex compeiio iea). hese o suies, he ocus is o sequeia ecisiomakig boh cases he deied heoy shos ha cucia chaaceisics of hepoducs, poduced makes, o bidding games shape e uodig o heobseed sequence o dominace. A smia heme appeas i ohe kids osudies as i Deaipos (987) sudy o sequenia modes o spaiacompeio equeia game heoy is eaed o ohe kids o sequeiasocia eoies, ike Faao Skoezs poducon heoy (Faao Skoez984 koez aao 989). hese ae he comng omaizaos o socia

acio ad i epace he simpe exchange heoes of he Homansau ea.[ei quiae in e aea o cogii is he SchaAbeso (977) scip

adiio]Aso o be consiee une eonomics ae say aces in maeig a

empoy sequenia ideas equence efecs o adeisemens ae esed byAake e a (986) ad Maks Kamns (988) Ohes (Soma e a 990)hae esed dffeen oes n consumpon ecsonsoes oe is choose

bad soe soe ype o ocaio? noe hese papes ess o da heiscieic coe ha o sho ha inees i decisio sequeces exedsbeyod he pue psychoogy and economcs communy e ino appiedcoexs

Arhaeooy

Achaeoogy has ong been ineesed in sequece anaysis. The pobem oodeig sequences o aiacs, using measemens poide eihe by esembances beeen aiacs o by poimy in sies poed he is impeus

o may cue mehods in sequence anaysis. odson e as monumeacoecio (97) bigs many o hese oks ogehe in oe pace ad poes an enry o he ed Ths ieae connues o go

houh he heoea eson s neay aays he smpe sae pobemof ha came befoe ha a aey of sequece mehos ae used in achae-oogy some eecig moda chaacesics o aacs some eecing moecompicaed saisica anaysis Fo an exampe empoyig seea echniques,see osoy DeBoe (989). Typicay, pofes of ses n ems of diee

kinds of aiacs ae used o seuence ses o inusy ypes, i ha is esied(McBeay 988). Someimes he mehos use ae eemey ngenous andey o koedge o compe sequena consains as in eeig daig ofooms i puebos (Con 99hese ae anaogous fomay, o he scheun pobems o opeaons eseach One oy n he achaeoogca e

Ann


views.org



.


9/21

SEQENCE NYSS

are he pevave ampon ha ere a ngle dreonal eqenewo les Brd Franel 11rase hs problem n onnon woloene Asrala sowng fls of ovalng sqens a nd

vdal e w hose elsewhere parlarl n e as of ranom nsorngand earhnded samplng bases

Linuii

A vare of seqen qsons av bn nvsgad n lngss A npholog seqn s hre mos on a sragowar and sall smplendepenen vaable Genrall sds ranspose words grammaal sr-re or wole pa of exs an nvesgae he drbane of omprehenonTh wd rang of sh ss s na b Gsnr hseman (992)papr w ons sn ffs n a langagrand sea lon Anoerllrave paper s Jonz's 18 nvsgaon of srambl s w naveand nonnave nglsh spears nral son rn a dvsfrom he wor of Pag an ha s nral for or nersandng of me morebroals eal ow people onsr er mages of and wors for emporal prosss an sns M wor ons aqson of sh onpons n lrn: Nasopolos baz 8 mplf s lerares a ampl sggss ss of lnar vlopmne sageheo

qesons as mpoan n lngss as n psholog In boh aes wehave seqenes of seqenes Ths we nd sag heo hrogho langageason e no onl for hlrn b nrasngl for eond langageaqson as wll Lafr 10ss sags n seon langage aqsonand llraes a ommon oral ov aong sag orssnssngon absolel rglar gross ssson b allowng a far amon of nveronand eglar n he eals of ason whn sage

Poiia iene

n polal sene seqenes have plae mpoan roles as well The mod-zaon raon was anord n a sag eo pohess wh spadfrom s applaon o eonom hang (b solars l Rosow o appl-aons o polal vlopmn (n nngon an s followrs o naon-alsm (n wor of s a ors Mor rl sag ors avbn appl o wlar sa a probl analz n al b bbo &evne 12 In some polal sn sssons sqene mans as sall os n soolog ssnall a sn of varabls (g Camns& Sson 8 or s sn s onvd ssnall as soform of aorgrsson Waran al Or agan sn an bonvd as smpl ransposon n orr (ono lbralaon bfor orar polal lbralzaon n Wnrab ar 2 n al 18presen sh a onesp mol of bgng far mor sopsa seen

Ann


views.org



.


10/21

102 ABBO

me of budgetng appears n Padgett's cassc98 atice, which mainsone of fw really serious multilevel stohastic models of sequences of events

Te various nonsociological sequence literatures share a number of charac

testcs. Frst, e most common sequence approaches in them re two: . useof stage theors to compreend paes of deveopment, and . aayss of

he effects of fairl simple sequence effects (e.g inversions) as independentvaiables Stage theories with their assumption of noncurrence a wide-spread; they ae central in deveopmena psychoogy, archaeoogy and potca scence. Smary, the maton of sequenc effcts to smpe revsa orat most vaaton among he order of three events is pretty unvesal acrossthe pschologica politica scientic d inguistic iteratures Economicsstnds out for ts forma approac to sequence issues usua within a stochastc framework eithr n rea time or in te "decision tree time of game theoy.The varous Mrkovan studes scaeed across ngustcs, economcs, andpsychoogy aso t this one-step sequence format focusng on ntea inter-dependencies in sequences No nonsioogical work really addesses thecontngences beteen separae sequences athoug one coud tn aoute eefs and srateges of paricpans n extensve games as separae butnterdependent sequences.

Sociology

Th two prncpa soogca tratures involving sequentia conceptionshave boh been discussed n cent Annl Rvis The fe cycle ltraturswere reveed by Rand Krecker n 99, and the careers teratur byRosenfed n 99. I ave itte to add to those reves n tems of coveragof the literature

oug sequences have made many appearances n socoogy, there refew forma heoretica anayses for hem. I ave aready noted the ararokvoretz tadton. Tere was aso eay ork by Maye and oters Mayhew

et a97, Mayhe Levnger 1976), and by bott ho (983) attemptedto characteriz th teoretica and metodoogica terature on sequencseyond at, e eoreca ork n coogy s mnmal y far the mosimportant theoretica iteratures for understandng sequences of soca eventsper se are he anaytca posopy of stoy reveed n Gardner959 andmonumentaed n Danto 5) and te stcturast teoy of naatve ( revwed n Chatman 198 and pitomized in the astonishngy rant aes

974 Thse are arge iteratures not to e summarized sketchy Nor avetey been anscended y the cuturaist muddes about stoy that domnatdebates on hstorograpy and naatve today. n attempt to reconce a theseteratures is icoeur 1415 denitey not for the nteectuay fant athear).

Ther reay tree ves of sequence conceptions in sociological writing

Ann


views.org



.


11/21

SEUENCE NYSS

The mle e lne ge eoe Thee e ml no onl n he lecourse lerure, bu lso n e dozens o "zon lerureoeonlzon, ronlzon, modezon, nd so on. In socolog, oml sge

heoes ve long been common ne nds em n rx, el, Beson,Kun Smele, nd mn oer ulrl r oure e e "nurloe o he Cgo Sool, os ledr Robe r sge eoenel eveere n revoluons (Edrds 92, gng (Thse 92,ommel orgnzons (uges 1928, crmnl creers (S 1930,dncer cees (Crese 1932, nd so on er veron o sge heoee heoe bou "o euences mu be negoed n ome odll he ool-oo rnson bu oen omeng moe u le

e rnson o rmnl (Smso Lub 99 ese re "ungpos eoresThe nex level o seuence conceon nvolve muc more onngenc

nd den n do ge eoe. Suene ee e oen moe ube onuene b ohe euene o b mrgnl ondon. o o e ob eelerue es s roc robbl beuse even e smles levelemlomen nd unemlomenob soes re sonsngl er. Iereore cll ese "creer eores berng n mnd mn eoes bouole' ull o, n ul dvlomn,

usull o nonreuen evenThe mo exreme orm o seuence coneon me ll euences ner

deenden n comlex neor I ve elseee (992c clled uc eoes hs. e re ue ommon e (90 vnn model s o nd, bu o lo bbo' eo o oeson(1988. Su eoe reue ue unuul meodologl ndlng eresored o modelng seuenes o oles n e ssem rer n seueneso obs eld b ndvduls (see Cse 199 or ree o suc models

Te socologcl lerure us oles some o e sme ssues s do oerlrurs, bu s den ms Sge os domne n e leourse lerure nd n muc o e "rnsons lerure s o Bu b onrs creer ores domne mos ob reser, nd e des odsoverng eed seuenes s ored lerure o ocus on onoucomes or one-se socsc models

MTHODS

Resercers seuene d ses nd seuene-reled uesons cn ollo rl cler decson ree n e sec o meod The deon ee o nlze ul d o o onsru d bed on rme omul d, s, o smule Te le s e o o gme eo nd sreles, nd I do no re exensvel, s Olver (1993 reveed




.


12/21

1 ABBO

eae opc eceny an Macy cue uc ue eewee n voumeTe cena pobem w muaon te emanc one of jufyng theappcaton of a pacua muaon o a pacua boy of ata Unfounaey uuay ue a many muaon can be onuce o boy of ata gven ucen aumpon abou paamee Te utctonof ny patcua moe eefoe oen vey weak In genea mutonbuy ynactc powenea ogca conency an ofen a wonefuycounentuve unpecabya te pce of t emanc obcuy I woth nong oweve a maemc moe of h yp ve conebe oy n ocoogy eg Ganovette 97) foowng on Revy'cuou wok n te 96 Raevky 96)

f one no ung muaonbae meo e nex econ a vemae cea eewee 199a) wee one we o ea e equence aa woe o ep by ep

tep-by-tep Methods

pbyp coce ea o me ee Makovan an even oymeo. e cena nee a ay p an compex epenence o anneameaue equence upon own pa en one appe me eemeo Tee am o n a mpe ocac geneao a effecvey

an ene equence I may nvove auoegeon movng veage o btn combnaon an may eac vayng ep no e pa Te bac ea ofme ee anay o we a moe a peumaby caua; mecanmmu be pouae a cae e pacua moe ucueag avegngan o on New eveopmen ncue noucon of evenype ubacen me ee on wc ee Iaac e a 99 Te ene ex ox e a1994

Wen aab of ne cagoca e pbyp anay mpoy

aona Makov meo amng o equence of caegoe by etmng tanon pobabe ep by ep an peap nvokng ee eeppa epenence ge oe) o cangng pobbe nontaonay) oaccoun o m of a oneep moe Depe eay wepea appcaonn moby ue Makovan anay a no oue n ocoogy pobaby bcaue eve poweu pecon ony n e ce o aonypocee wc ae ae) an pacca ony wen e moe nvove uone peou me peo an a fay ma ae pace Uefu evew of ay bu ap au ae Bouon 9) an Sewman 976) aoug

Mako moe ae occaonay ue ee en Syke 1979 anManece e a 9).

Wee one neee n anon om ony one pacua po cegoyan e ue me un anon e.g ow ong befoe mae peopege oce) one a even o meo known oue ocoogy a




.


13/21

EUENE ANAL

duion meod zd meod, filue anlyi, nd iou oe nmeTee e begun o ee ey wideped ppliaion in oiology a nyul of e American Sociology Review o e American Joua of Soci-

oo ow. loug peonally ae eevaion abou ee meodbbo 193 1992), hey ae widely ued and mu be undeood by nyeou equene nly uen eiew i Yamguhi 1991).

Whole equence Mehods

f on e oe nd one wihe o ea equene wole uni, en onemu e eoue o peial mehodologie owee, i i ueful onoe he bi queion of inee ee. Te enl iue in wole equene

analyi i nely alwy wee hee ae pae among he equene,h o h hol qun o ihin pa of hem One may wi o kwee ee pae ome om making hem dependen aiable o wey mean fo he fuue making hem independen aiable bu e poblem i lwy o gue ou whehe he pe e hee.

Tee e wo bod appoae o hi queion of pae. One i algebaie ohe mei. In e lgebai appoa he aim i o edue eah equeneo ome imple fom and en o gahe ll equene wi imila implefom" unde one eading n e mei ppoah he naly deelop

meue of eemblne gie he dine" beween ny pi of equene Tee dine e hen ubjeed o ome andd laiaionmeod like ling o lueing on whi ee abie & ube 1992 fo een eiew

Many people ae king way o ode wole equene da Ofen eoding eem obiou, in oding ee a imple li of job ee iimply he yeaby-yea o monh-by-onh li of job held Bu when maee moe omplea in aemp o ode ineaion o oie o paallelequene ake aeie of heme ae endle nd oud be he ubeof ei own eiew Thee i lge lieaue in dioue analyi and elaedlieue on deiled fomal epeenion of dioue nd dioue-likepoee Poole eg 1989) ha done uh wok deeloping mulileel odingheme fo ineaion and indeed he Baleian ineaion poe nalyidiion oninue Koak 1993 eponding o bell 1993) ee lo eeenie wok of Bkemn & Goman (1986) Tbao Tbao ikel1992) h deeloped aul newok dioue analyi nohe newheme ha emeged in he oiology o iene aou e al 1992 o 1992

Clon Gomn 1992), lhoug i eem o hi wie a e Lou el poje moe o le einen newok nalyi. Fo ye anoe odingyem nd owae ee Caley (1991) nd Caley & Palmqui (1992)Mihle eg 1986 1990 ha done muh ok on ineiew oding andnlyi. Fnzoi (1990) and ohe he woked on he oding of oie fom

Ann


views.org



.


14/21

1 BBO

newspapers Indeed much of Davd Heses ETHNO program s amed o helpinesigaos ceae a foma coded araive srucue for sequece daa nneracve foma

Wha o do wh he daa once coded s aoher mae. he one speccase of nonrecuen sequences wih compee dat (each even obseed oncend ony once n each sequence), there are a boad ve of peuaonalechques avalable These folo he mec appoach aboe he poducemeasures of resembace beeen sequences whch he aas ma hen scaeo cuse n ode o creae caegores ha ca u see as depde ndepende varabes Speama coelato s such a measure of resembanceWhere one has nonrecuent sequeces wh mssng daa (through me frame

cesorig or simple ooccurrece) he poblem ca be eaed as a seiaioo oe-dmesoa scag pobem poded hee ae measues of dsaceo esembace beee sequece elemes For an exampe see Abbo) Aabie & ubr (2) hoee a of dculies i such appicaons.

ce oe moes o ecue ees here e hree expc mehodoogesfor consideing sequece reguaies of some compexi a producs ofexesive heoecal ad reseach pogams Two ae agebac in appoach(Davd Hese and Peer Abel) and one s mec (Adrew Abbot) If he dat

nvoe branching ad megng sequece ines ha s if he inoe sepabebu smuaeous ees ha he aals does o sh o rea as combaonees he o possbe choces a pese ae he mehods of Davd Hesead Pee Abel he case of uiear sequeces Abbo's mehods aeavaabe ad pobab pefeabe ea he hee mehods ae amed adfferen pats of he oeral ask of sequence aalss Heses methods echie amed a a goous ad fu jusied codg (See hs commes onAbe 993) Abes mehods ae che amed a agebac casscao ofalead coded naraes Abbos mehods are amed a mec casscato

of coded aaives ad hie much more exbe tha Abels are pesentlavailabe on for the case of uea sequeces

Davd Heses ETHNO ssem aose ou of hs ok codg exeded acioad ieaco paes ad oos o he heores of Faao & koez (984) s emboded a eace soare ssem ETN: see Hese 989) [avaable from we Bo pubshes Dubuque A for $] Foreves see Gf (93) ad Baes (93) ETHNO pesumes ha heaals has a daa se comosed of moe o ess eeded aaes of pacula

soes ha mus be educed o bae boes sucues b ceag a exco ofacions ad ees ad he formalg he as hch hese acs adevens proceed from oe aohe The formaiaio ecodes he aalssundersadng of ecessa relaoshps among he eens o be placed n henaae srucue ETHNO s ell usaed Gfs (9) pece on

Ann


views.org



.


15/21


16/21

108 ABBO

avaiabe i simpe form i hs OPMZE progam from him $20 athougha publicl available bologcal sequece aligmet program will do the amethig afte ome moificatio of it faciitie.

Optimal matchig has begu to see substatial use i socia sciece. Abbottsow pubihe aases icue paers o aces (Abbott Forest 986 ocaeers (Abbott Hrca 99 ad o welfare state (Abbott Devie992) He ha teted reiabiit i Forret Abbott (990). oe Brai(95) utlie the evet ditace cog chaactetic of otimal matchigoxo (9) epot bo a eaboate codig cheme ad appicatio ofmatchig metho to seual behavior (hee ma be moe complete ublicatofrom his std at have ot bee abe o d) ie Roid 99appl optimal aigmet to movemet patte i ifat, while evitt Na(99) ice ue optima matchig to emotate coitec amog phicad sociolog tetboos Saewah Robe (99) app the techiques tofi reguarities i iovato processes as oes Poole (993. Cha (994has ued optimal matchg to aale mobilit path as has Capete (99)Stove (994 ues the methos i a iightfu aais of cout chigatte i the US South

Oe of the avatages of ota matchg/agmet as a sequece techique is that aalsts whose theories prect fferet forms of resemblace

ca var the agoithms to suit them hus tage theorie with ome ocadsorea commo positio amog stge theorita be ought uigvaiats of the cear agorthm (agr 983. heorie imig the uimortace of mior shfts i uratio of rs ca be hale with vaats othe ae gapcost agorithm (Saof Krsa 98:296ff. Subsequeceproblems" across lage data ets (the tuig poit questio" i life ccleata) ca be hae wth ew oca aigmet agorths usig Gibbs sampler d epectato mamato (aece et al 99) ore mpotatthe uiiearit costrait is sow beig fted Eve game theoetic e

queces (whch brach at each eciso poit) wil probabl be aalyableusig the tee resembace agorithms of Shasha a othe (Zhag Shaha99, see alo Sao Ksal 9 25f.

At peset the easue theo f whe seuee ata is reima iee the highl specialie but fairl commo situatio of seueces emboigstages that a cases traverse i the sae orer the ethos of Cois et a(988 a id of geerale Guttma methoolog) ma pove to be gee-aiabe from their origia of use as a geerator of scag item But muchees o formal oels o seuee eeratio a robabl moe im-portat, o the actua methooog chose Abbot (1984 aises a ubeof geera measuremet ssues Aother etraoriarl iterestg area isscheuig theor; for eale Birch (98 has a etemel iterestigpaper o sequeces geerate b sie activato te moel Scheulig

Ann


views.org



.


17/21

UN ANAL

modes such as the araroSoret production scheme may proe crcia todeeoping serious measurement anaysis for sequence data Sequenceguessing programs created by aticia inteigence may aso be important or anexampe see Dietterich Michasi 98.

In summay sequence methods seem to be posed at a pont of maordeeopment Once the ast array of bioogica agorithms can be haessedto a reasonabe socioogica 10 system bbotts empiricist sequence resembance techniques shoud become a reasonabe too. he maor probem thenwi b to thin through ways of combining Heises eegance of descriptionAbes igor of homomophic cassification and bbotts empiricay practicause of metric techniques. Unsoed een in computer science howeer is the

combination of the ast to anaysis of netor-structured sequence data withmetric resembance techniques) athogh see bbott ) for specuationson this matter Unsoed too are the geat diicuties of deeoping a seriousmeasurement and statistica theory for sequence anayss. these methodsat present are argey heuristic. Ony no are the bioogists reay facing theprobems of statistica inference ith sequences probems that differ in manyways from the inds of inferences socioogists may wish to draw. or thebioogica iterature see Karin et a99 and Vingron Wateman 99.)

Sequence anaysis hods great promse for socoogy. Most of our cassictheories are sequentia or interactiona teories. he ne metods address thosetheories directy What the fied needs no are unior schoars committed toexporing what sequence reguarities can te us about socia ife. he methodswi not to be sure soe the great probems represented by interactionaedswhere a sequences are mutuay dependent and the data bewiderngycompex ut the methods i proide us ith far more effectie ways ofanayzing ife courses careers and other such reatiey independent andreguar sequences ways of anaying that accord directy with the canonica

theoretica apparatus of the discipine.

Any AuReew chapter as well as an article cited in an Au Reew chapter,may b purchased from the Annual Reviews Preprits ad Reprits service

; ; email: [email protected]

Ltratur Ctd

Aaker DA. Sayman DM. Hagery MR 1986Wamth in adveising Cos Res12:365-81

Abbo A 1983 Sequences of sial evensHs Meods 1612947

Abbo A 1984 Even sequence and even duaion Hs. Me 11922

A A 1988a. m f fChicago Univ Chicago Press

Abbo A 1988 Transcending genera lineareality So

'eo 6 16986

Abbo A 1990 Primer on sequence mehodsO S 37392

Abbo A 1991 e ode o poessonalizaion Work Op 1835584

Abbott A 1992a Fom causes o evens Md R 2042855

Abbo A 1992b Wha do cases do? In W

Ann


views.org


.


18/21


19/21

moemen of he symoms encouneren aens wh anc sorer Copr Psychiat 321229

Dewan M 1987. he oe o neencen suena mes of saa comonEcon ttes 23323-28

Deech G Mchask RS 1985. Dscoen aes n seuences of eens Artcntell 251 87232

Ds DM Ramsn KD 1989. Jon o sna scheun o mue ems wh seuenceenen seu coss Decision Sci21233

Dobson G 1992. he cycc o scheunobem wh seuenceeenen seusOp Re. 47369

Duncan S Faey AM 199. Achen aen

ch cnaon hrouh conenon ChildDev. 61 74253Ee D Enke 1991. The scure of oss

A. Sociol Rev 46494-58Ewars 1927. e url Hio oev

olutios. hcao n hcao PressEckson PL ays RD, Be RM 1992. Se

n hrouh he use seuence Abo Psychol. 1144151

Faea G Baessarn R Tohen M,Sakowsk SM Waeaux 1991 Esoe suence n oar soer an resonse o hum eamen A

Pchiat. 1481237-39Faao J 1993 Generan naae forms Math. Sociol. 1815381

Fararo T Skoe 1984 nsuons as oucon sysems Math Sociol 1 1 17-82

Femn J Darey JM 199. he uoseuacon seuence an he "uson of con"es Soc Psychol. Bull 16 3465

Foes J, Ab A 19 he oma machn meh or anhooca aa Qant. Anthopol. 2 15 1-7

Fose V Srnha NA 1992. Deeomenaroes o aoescens an youn aus

chsn aon Adolecee 27655-73Franos R 199. omuerassse cn ofeua aa Soc. Meth Res 19225-57

FrenchSGeore M Breman AS 1989. Roeof ecaby of seuence n auoyseam sereaon Percep. scophscs4638486

Gacaoea A Semjen A 1987. he oanzaon of a moemen seuences as auncon of seuence enh Acta Psychol.66237-5

Garner P 1959. eorie ofHiso Gencoe Free Pess

Gsne R, Schuserman 1992. Seuence,syna an semancs Copar Psychol17891

Grenebach AP McDona JE 1992 Ahac seuence ecsons for eer ars whseaaons o one o he ees p.sychol C 18865-2

EQUENCE N I I I

Grbsko M Deereu 1992. Sequence Aalysis Prier. New Yok Freeman

Grfn L 1993. Naae een scu aayss an causa neraon n hsocasooy A / Socol. 98 14133

Gn U 13 Inucon o ENO Contep Sociol 22295-96

Gu JND Daw WP 1986 he womachne seuence enen owsho obem / Op Re 244376

on ene G 198. Seqece Analy Molecla Biology. San Deo Acaemc

ese D 1989. Moen een sucures Mah Sociol. 1413969

ese D 1991. Een sucure anayss nUsing Cope in Qualitative Reseach,e N Fen R Lee 1363 Newbu

Park A Saeson Kena DG auu P es 1971.Meics i e Arceological ad Hisoricl Scieces nburh Un Enbur

M 1987. Barann ames wh a ranom seuence of who makes he ofescon tter 245-9

o W 1987 A seuena moe of R&Dnesmen oer an unboune me hozonMe Sci. 3358

ue W Erckson JR 1991. Noae sues o seuence senh an scene scu

of 3 scs A Pychol. 12294uhes E 1928. he Groth ofan Istition.PhD hess, n hcao

nhoff A W 1986. Pearn seuences of saccaes une choce eacon conons ActaPychol. 61 21 1-28

Isaac arson SM Mahs MP 1991 . alo quaniti in coparative hitoical tieee analyi. Pesene a S Sc sAss New Oeans 2 No 1991

Jones SE Ban PF 1985. An usaon of asme seuence anayss wh eeence oe aonsc behaor o our sans o ab

oraory mce Behav Proc 1 1 365-88Jon J 1989. eua seuence an sconauae comrhenson ng aing 392749

Karn S, Bucher P Bene V Aschu S1991 Ssca mehos an nshs ooen an DNA seuences A. RevBiophy Biophy Che 2175-23

Kosaka K 1993 owa a uher anayss onaaes Math. Sociol. 18141-51

Kes DM, Wson R 1982. Seuena eubra Ecooetica 5863-94

amb ME Makn M 1986. he ee

omen of sa ecaons n sessreef seuences It. Beav. Dev. 9235-49

aour B Mauun e G 1992. A noe onsoechnca ras Sociol Std ci 2233-57

aufer B 199. Seuence an orer n he e




.


20/21

2 ABBOT

vlopmnt of th 2 Lxs. A Lngust1:281-96

wrnc E tschu SF, Bogusk MS uJS Nuwld F Wooon . 199 Dcng subt squnc sgnls cence 262208-14

vtt B Nss 989 d on th grbgcn. Admn c Q 4: 19207

str ch Hl . 990 Squnc ndsrucur n h concp dvopmn of chn wh motonl nd horl dfcuts J Genet Psych 5 1 :287-

Mndrschd RW R S McKrrck KSrgld S 982 sthstc ml ofrton control n dydc ntrcton Amc Re 4762-75

Ms U Kmn M. 1988 h us of pr

uct smplng nd dvrtsng J Maket Res25266-81Mrks U Kmns M. 1990 h us of pr

uct smpng nd dvrtsng J Maket Res25:266-81

Myhw BH Gy N Myhw M 971Bhvo n ntrcton systms Gen yst16:129

Myhw BH vngr 976 n th frquncy of olgrchy n humn ntcton.Am J c 81:10179

Mys VM. 986 Dvlopmntl squnc nlc womn's smll goups. Int ma

Gu Res 2:94-99McBrty S. 1988 h Sngon-upmnnd Mddl Ston g squnc t thMuguk St, Wst ny. WdAche 198920

M ohnson Nwll W SchN 1982 Mdcn food In Cases inPductn and Oetns ManagementEnglw lffs N Prntc Hl

Mllr U od G. 199 Squnc comprson mthology or th nlyss o movmnt pts n nfnts nd toddls whnd wthout motor dys. Am Occu

The 47:97Mshr E. 1986 h nlyss of ntwntvs n Nate Psychgy d Sn pp 2-55 Nw or: Pgr

Mshlr EG 19 Vldton n nquyguddreserh Ha du Re 041

Muln B Drskl E Smth 989 vlblty nd s projcton Pes c Psych u 15:84-90

N . 986 n opm scton pomfor squnc wth rndom numr ofpplcnts r prod. O Res 4:47885

Ntsopouos D bdz H 186 Undrstnd

ng lngustc tm squn nd smultnty. J Psychngust es 15:24-7Ny PG. 987 h mn f u h

drn Am J Psychthe 41:9-40lvr PE 199 oml mls of collctv

cton. Annu Re c 19:271-pnhm L, DGoot M 985 onstuc

ton nd rconstucton of s vnt squncs. Psych Re 56:5 1-18

ppnhmr , HVD 198 S rscv kn nd vn squns. ch Re 568-

nd M rcr 19 oncpts ofth lf cycl Annu Re c 16:241-62

Pdgtt . 1981 Hrrchy nd coogc control n fdrl budgt dcson mkng.m. J Socol 877519

Pr - nnson D 986 ompurbsd rsponssnstv dsgn srtgsfor sctng prsnton form nd squncof mpls n lng of crdn concpts J Educ Pch 78558

Prkr KH 1988 Spkng us in smlgup ntrcton J Pes c Pch 54

965-71Pk PK rvon D 989 Squnc nchorng nd slfccy gntn 750

Pttngr D Pvl WB Flor SR Kontos 1988 nlyss of th prtl rnfocmntxtncton ffct n humns s functon ofsqunc of nforcmnt schdus. Am JPych 107-82

Polch 1987 ompson of from pssv ton squnc nd n ctv dscrmnton tsk. Psychhysgy 24:4146

Pool MS 1989 Dcson dvopmnt n

sml oups. Hum Cmmun Res 15:549-89Pl MS. 199 Squncs n dcson groups

Ms. Dp. Spch & ommun. Unv. MnnMnnpls

shsy N 1968 Lkng at Hsthugh Mahematcs mrdg M: MIPss

Rd S Dn PR Mllr 1989 h roof cusl squnc n th mnng of cons J c Pch 28:4151

cour P 19841985 Tme and Naatehcgo: Unv hcgo Pss

Rosnfld R. 1992 ob mobty nd crpsss. Annu Re c 8:91Ryl 1991 jct rtons thory nd c

tvtyhory. Med Psych :0-6Shl R Roby D 99 n mpc

xonomy o mplmnton pressesbsd on quncs of vnts n nformonsystm dvlopmnt Og c 454876

Smpson u H. 199 Cme n the Makng mdg H Unv Pss

Snkoff D Kruskl B 98 Tme Wastng Edts and Mamecues RdngM ddsonWsly

Schn lson . 1977 cts PansGas and Undestandng Hlsd N:Lwr Eum

Scot K 1992 Exporng stchnc nyss c tud c 2:59-80

Shw 90 The Jacke hcgo: Unv.hcgo Prss

Ann


views.org



.


21/21

Skvoez J, Faao TJ. 1989 Action stucturesand siologcal acion heory J. Math.c. 37

Staw BM, Ross J. 1989 Understanding havo n escalaion suations. cece246:216

20Sewman S 1976 Makov models of cupa

onal moliy. J. Math. c. 2015, 27-7

SolmanJJ, Geny Anglin KA, Bus AC1990. Siuaional inuences on he consumerdsion sequence. J. . Re 21:195207

Sovel K. 199 e scue of lynchng. Ms. Siol niv N Colina Chal Hll

eace HS. 196. Positve ansfer from sequene pucon o sequence discmnaion in a nonvebal oganism. J. . ych. 122153

hashe F 1927 The ag. Chcago nv.ig ess

Tolstoy P, DeB WR 1989 An acheologcalsequence fo the SanagoCayaps Rvebasin, Esmeds, Euado J. edche. 1629530

Taasso T, Nickels M. 1992. The developmenof goal plans of action in te naaton of apicture sory Dcore roc. 1524975

eisman M Wllams C 1984 A theoy ofceon seng wh an appcaon o sequential dendencies cho. Rev. 91:681 1 1

van Leeuwen C Bufart H, van der Veg J 198Sequence effecs on he oganzaon ofmeaningless seral stmuli . ych.181502

Vasudev J, Hummel RC. 197. Moal sagesequences and pincipled asoning in n Indian sample. m. Dev. 30105118

EUENE NL 113

Vickers J. 1986 The evoluon of market stcure when hee is a sequence of innovaonsJ dt. Ec. 35112

Vingn M, Wateman MS. 1994 Sequencealignment and nalty choce J. Mo. .

235112Vucnch S 1984 Sequencing and socal stc

ue in family conc c. ch. Q. 72173

Wagne RA 1983 On the complexiy of heexended stngsng coeon prolem.n Sankoff & Kuskal 193, pp 21535

Waeman RW, Opnheime B, Stmson JA1991 Sequence and eqlium n congessional elections. J. t 5337293

Weintau S, Baer MD 1992. The nteplayween economc and ica openngWah. Q. 1517201

Whte HC 970. ha f Ot. Camde d Univ ess

Wnn W 1988 Recall of the patte, sequence,and names of concepts presented in insrucona dagrms J. Re. c. Teach. 2537586

Wold AH, Reinvang 1990 The elaion eween ntegration seuence of nformaon,shrtterm memr and token est rormance of aphasc sujecs. J. omm. Drd. 3359

Wye RS, Shn E, uhman RW,Benhausen GV 1985 ven memoy. J.er. oc. ycho. 4985777

Yamaguch K 1991 vet t ay.Newuy Park CA Sage

Zhg , Shaha D 1989 Simple fas algohms fo the eding distance tween eesnd elaed plems. AM om. 18124562




.

abbott, sequence analysis - new methodes for old ideas

Documents