a study on the variation of price level changes in energy commodities with special reference to...

7/22/2019 A Study on the Variation of Price Level Changes in Energy Commodities With Special Reference to Religare Securit

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A STUDY ON THE VARIATION OF

PRICE LEVEL CHANGES IN ENERGY

COMMODITIES WITH SPECIAL

REFERENCE TO RELIGARE

SECURITIES LTD, KOCHI

PROJECT REPORT

submitted by

ASIF SALIH. M

Register No: 088001119004

in partial fulfillment of the award of the degree

of

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

IN

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

RVS COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

COIMBATORE641 402

MAY 2010


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RVS COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND

TECHNOLOGY COIMBATORE 641 402

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

PROJECT WORK

MAY 2010

This is to certify that the project entitled

A STUDY ON THE VARIATION OF PRICE LEVEL CHANGES

IN ENERGY COMMODITIES WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO

RELIGARE SECURITIES LTD, KOCHI

is the bonafide record of project work done by

ASIF SALIH. M


of Master of Business Administration during the year 2009-2010

. .

Faculty Guide HOD

Submitted for the project viva voce examination held on

...

Internal Examiner External Examiner


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DECLERATION

I affirm that the project work titled to A STUDY ON THE VARIATION OF PRICE LEVEL

CHANGES IN ENERGY COMMODITIES WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO RELIGARE

SECURITIES LTD, KOCHI being submitted in partial fulfillment for the award of MBA is the

original work carried out by me. It has not formed the part of any other project work submitted

for award of any degree or diploma, either in this or any other university.

ASIF SALIH. M


I certify that the declaration made above by the candidate is true

Mrs.D.VIJAYALAKSHMI

Sr.Lecturer-MBA, M.com, M.phil

RVS College of Engineering & Technology


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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I extend my deep sense of gratitude and sincere thanks to our principal

Dr. V.GUNARAJ, ME., Ph.Dfor their value support in carrying out my project work.

I wish to express my sincere thanks to Dr. P.V.PRABHA MBA., Ph.D.,Director,and

Prof.S.PREETHAM SRIDAR B.Sc., MBA., M.Phil.,(PhD), HOD. RVS Institute of

Management Studies for their support in my project and guidance for doing the project work.

I express my sincere thanks to my project guide Mrs.D.VIJAYALAKSHMI, MBA.,

M.com,M.Phil,Senior Lecturer for the guidance and support for the preparation and study of the

organization.

I would like to express my sincere thanks to Mr. Manu Prasad, Branch manager

Religare Perinthalmannawith his full support & grateful guidance.

I also express my gratitude to all the Faculty Members, my friends, associate workers of

religare, Perinthalmanna and my parents who have helped me to carry out this work. Last but not

least I thank the Almighty God for his blessing showed on me during this work.

ASIF SALIH. M


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CONTENTS

CHAPTERS DESCRIPTION PAGE NO

ABSTRACT

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF CHARTS

1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 ABOUT THE INDUSTRY 1

1.2 ABOUT THE COMPANY 10

1.3 ABOUT THE STUDY 12

1.3.1. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 13

1.3.2. SCOPE OF THE STUDY 14

1.3.3. LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY 15

2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 16

3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 19

4 ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION 215 FINDINGS AND INFERENCES 67

6 RECOMMENDATIONS 69

7 CONCLUSION 70

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY


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ABSTRACT

The study was an attempt to analyze the price level variation in energy commodities of

crude oil and natural gas with special reference to RELIGARE commodities for four quartersduring the period of 2009-2010.

The study is based on the secondary data as the closing prices of crude oil and natural gas

for the four quarters. The data are collected only from the Indian market and the data collected

from the multi commodity exchange of India.

The analysis used for the study is technical analysis and major tool used for the study is

Moving Average Convergence and Divergence, Relative strength index, Rate of Change and

standard deviation for the study period.

The objective of the study is to find out the price level changes associated with the energy

commodities of crude oil and natural gas and thereby to find out the volatility and the rate of

change in the price of these commodities.

The study was an analytical in nature and the findings and recommendations are truly

based on the analysis of collected data.


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LIST OF TABLES

SL. NO DESCRIPTION PAGE NO

4.1TABLE SHOWING THE FIGURES MACD,SMA, ROC & RSI

25


30


35

4.4TABLE SHOWING THE FIGURES MACD,SMA, ROC & RSI 40



4.7

TABLE SHOWING THE FIGURES MACD,

SMA, ROC & RSI 55


4.9

TABLE SHOWING STANDARD DEVIATIONCRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS FOR FOURQUARTERS

65


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LIST OF CHARTS

SL.NO DESCRIPTION PAGE NO

4.1.1 CHART SHOWING MACD AND SMA 27

4.1.2 CHART SHOWING RSI 28

4.1.3CHART SHOWING ROC

29

4.2.1 CHART SHOWING MACD AND SMA 32

4.2.2CHART SHOWING RSI

33


34

4.3.1CHART SHOWING MACD AND SMA

37



39

4.4 .1CHART SHOWING MACD AND SMA

42

4.4 .2CHART SHOWING RSI

43

4.4 .3CHART SHOWING ROC

44


47


48


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S.NO DESCRIPTION PAGE NO


49

4.6.1CHART SHOWING MACD AND SMA 52


53


54


57



59


62


63


64

4.9.1CHART SHOWING STANDARD DEVIATIONOF CRUDE OIL FOR FOUR QUARTERS 65

4.9.2CHART SHOWING STANDARD DEVIATIONOF NATURAL GAS FOR FOUR QUARTERS 66


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CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 ABOUT THE INDUSTRY

A commodity is a good for which there is demand, but which is supplied without qualitative

differentiation across amarket.It isfungible,i.e. the same no matter who produces it. Examples

are petroleum, notebook paper, milk or copper. In contrast, one of the characteristics of a

commodity good is that its price is determined as a function of its market as a whole. Well-

established physical commodities have actively traded spot and derivative markets. Generally,

these are basic resources andagriculturalproducts such asiron ore,crude oil,natural gas,coal,

ethanol, salt, sugar, coffee beans, soybeans, aluminum, copper, rice, wheat, gold, silver,

palladium,andplatinum.Soft commodities are goods that are grown, while hard commodities

are the ones that are extracted through mining.

There is another important class of energy commodities which includes electricity, gas, coal and

oil. Electricity has the particular characteristic that it is either impossible or uneconomical to

store, hence, electricity must be consumed as soon as it is produced.

Commodity markets are markets where raw or primary products are exchanged. These raw

commodities are traded on regulatedcommodities exchanges,in which they are bought and sold

in standardized contracts.

History

The modern commodity markets have their roots in the trading of agricultural products. While

wheat and corn, cattle and pigs, were widely traded using standard instruments in the 19th

century in the United States, other basic foodstuffs such as soybeans were only added quiterecently in most markets. For a commodity market to be established, there must be very broad

consensus on the variations in the product that make it acceptable for one purpose or another.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_(economics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qualitative_datahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Product_differentiationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fungiblehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spot_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculturehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_orehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crude_oilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanolhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugarhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coffee_beanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soybeanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminiumhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copperhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheathttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silverhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palladiumhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platinumhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodities_exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodities_exchangehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platinumhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palladiumhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silverhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheathttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copperhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminiumhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soybeanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coffee_beanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugarhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanolhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crude_oilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_orehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculturehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spot_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fungiblehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Product_differentiationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qualitative_datahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_(economics)


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The economic impact of the development of commodity markets is hard to overestimate.

Through the 19th century "the exchanges became effective spokesmen for, and innovators of,

improvements in transportation, warehousing, and financing, which paved the way to expanded

interstate and international trade.

India Commodity Market

India commodity market consists of both the retail and the wholesale market in the country. The

commodity market in India facilitates multi commodity exchange within and outside the country

based on requirements. Commodity trading is one facility that investors can explore for investing

their money. The India Commodity market has undergone lots of changes due to the changing

global economic scenario; thus throwing up many opportunities in the process. Demand for

commodities both in the domestic and global market is estimated to grow by four times than the

demand currently is by the next five years.

Commodity trading

Commodity trading is an interesting option for those who wish to diversify from the traditional

options like shares, bonds and portfolios. The Government has made almost all commodities

entitled for futures trading. Three multi commodity exchanges have been set up in the country to

facilitate this for the retail investors. The three national exchanges in India are:

Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)

National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX)

National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE)

Commodity trading in India is still at its early days and thus requires an aggressive growth plan

with innovative ideas. Liberal policies in commodity trading will definitely boost the commodity

trading. The commodities and future market in the country is regulated by Forward Markets

commission (FMC).


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Size of the market

The trading of commodities consists of direct physical trading and derivatives trading. The

commodities markets have seen an upturn in the volume of trading in recent years. In the five

years up to 2007, the value of global physical exports of commodities increased by 17% while

the notional value outstanding of commodityOTC (over the counter) derivatives increased more

than 500% and commodity derivative trading on exchanges more than 200%.

The notional value outstanding of banks OTC commodities derivatives contracts increased

27% in 2007 to $9.0 trillion. OTC trading accounts for the majority of trading in gold and silver.

Overall, precious metals accounted for 8% of OTC commodities derivatives trading in 2007,

down from their 55% share a decade earlier as trading in energy derivatives rose.

Global physical and derivative trading of commodities on exchanges increased more than a third

in 2007 to reach 1,684 million contracts. Agricultural contracts trading grew by 32% in 2007,

energy 29% and industrial metals by 30%. Precious metals trading grew by 3%, with higher

volume in New York being partially offset by declining volume in Tokyo. Over 40% of

commodities trading on exchanges was conducted on US exchanges and a quarter in China.

Recent Trends in Commodities

The 2008 global boom in commodity prices - for everything from coal to corn was fueled by

heated demand from the likes of China and India, plus unbridled speculation in forward markets.

That bubble popped in the closing months of 2008 across the board. As a result, farmers are

expected to face a sharp drop in crop prices, after years of record revenue. Other commodities,

such as steel, are also expected to tumble due to lower demand. This will be a rare positive for

manufacturing industries, which will experience a drop in some input costs, partly offsetting the

decline in downstream demand.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-counter_(finance)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notional_valuehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notional_valuehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-counter_(finance)


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Returns

Studies show that fully-collateralized commodity futures have historically offered the same

return andSharpe ratio as equities.Commodities have an approximateexpected return of 5% in

real terms which is based on the risk premium for 116 different commodities weighted equally

since 1888 (Source Report 219171-Wharton Business School). Investment professionals often

too mistakenly claim there is no risk premium in commodities

Spot trading

Spot trading is any transaction where delivery either takes place immediately, or with a

minimum lag between the trade and delivery due to technical constraints. Spot trading normally

involves visual inspection of the commodity or a sample of the commodity, and is carried out in

markets such aswholesale markets.Commodity markets, on the other hand, require the existence

of agreed standards so that trades can be made without visual inspect

Forward contracts

Aforward contract is an agreement between two parties to exchange at some fixed future

date a given quantity of a commodity for a price defined today. The fixed price today is known

as theforward price.

Futures contracts

A futures contract has the same general features as a forward contract but is transacted through a

futures exchange. Commodity and Futures contracts are based on whats termed "Forward"

Contracts. Early on these "forward" contracts (agreements to buy now, pay and deliver later)

were used as a way of getting products from producer to the consumer. These typically were

only for food and agricultural Products. Forward contracts have evolved and have been

standardized into what we know today as futures contracts. Although more complex today, early

Forward contracts for example, were used for rice in seventeenth century Japan. Modern

"forward", or futures agreements, began in Chicago in the 1840s, with the appearance of the

railroads. Chicago, being centrally located, emerged as the hub between Midwestern farmers and

producers and the east coast consumer population centeres.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratiohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_returnhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wholesale_marketinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward_contracthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward_pricehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward_pricehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward_contracthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wholesale_marketinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_returnhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio


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Commodity markets and protectionism

Developing countries (democratic or not) have been moved to harden their currencies, accept

IMF rules, join the WTO, and submit to a broad regime of reforms that amount to a "hedge"

against being isolated. China's entry into the WTO signaled the end of truly isolated nations

entirely managing their own currency and affairs. The need for stable currency and predictable

clearing and rules-based handling of trade disputes, has led to a global trade hegemony - many

nations "hedging" on a global scale against each other's anticipated "protectionism", were they to

fail to join theWTO

There are signs, however, that this regime is far from perfect. U.S. trade sanctions against

Canadian softwood lumber (within NAFTA) and foreign steel (except for NAFTA partners

Canada and Mexico) in 2002 signaled a shift in policy towards a tougher regime perhaps more

driven by political concerns - jobs, industrial policy, even sustainable forestry and logging

practices.

ENERGY COMMODITIES

Crude Oil

Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase in natural underground

reservoirs. Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total world's primary energy

consumption.

Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or other. Oil &

lubricants, transportation, petrochemicals, pesticides and insecticides, paints, perfumes, etc. are

largely and directly affected by the oil prices.

Aviation gasoline, motor gasoline, naphtha, kerosene, jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil,

liquefied petroleum gas, lubricants, paraffin wax, petroleum coke, asphalt and other products are

obtained from the processing of crude and other hydrocarbon compounds.

The prices of crude are highly volatile. High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases

input costs; reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developing_countrieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IMFhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protectionismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_policyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_policyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protectionismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IMFhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developing_countries


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Categories of Crude oil

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is of very high quality. Its API gravity is 39.6 degrees

(making it a "light" crude oil), and it contains only about 0.24 percent of sulphur (making a

"sweet" crude oil). WTI is generally priced at about a $2-4 per-barrel premium to OPEC Basket

price and about $1-2 per barrel premium to Brent, although on a daily basis the pricing

relationships between these can very greatly.

Brent Crude Oil stands as a benchmark for Europe.

India is very much reliant on oil from the Middle East (High Sulphur). The OPEC has identified

China & India as their main buyers of oil in Asia for several years to come

Crude Oil Units (average gravity)

1 US barrel = 42 US gallons.

1 US barrel = 158.98 litres.

1 tonne = 7.33 barrels .

1 short ton = 6.65 barrels .

Global Scenario

Oil accounts for 40 per cent of the world's total energy demand.

The world consumes about 76 million bbl/day of oil.

United States (20 million bbl/d), followed by China (5.6 million bbl/d) and Japan (5.4 million

bbl/d) are the top oil consuming countries..

Balance recoverable reserve was estimated at about 142.7 billion tones (in 2002) of which OPEC

was 112 billion tones


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Market Influencing Factors

OPEC output and supply.

Terrorism, Weather/storms, War and any other unforeseen geopolitical factors that causes

supply disruptions.

Global demand particularly from emerging nations.

Dollar fluctuations.

DOE / API imports and stocks.

Refinery fires & funds buying.

Natural Gas

Major Characteristics

Natural gas is a colourless, odourless, environment friendly energy source. It is a gas

consisting primarily of methane. It is found associated with fossil fuels, in coal beds, as methane

clathrates, and is created by methanogenic organisms in marshes, bogs, and landfills. Natural gas

is commercially produced mostly from oil fields and natural gas fields.

Before natural gas can be used as a fuel, it must undergo extensive processing to remove

almost all materials other than methane. The by-products of that processing include ethane,

propane, butanes, pentanes and higher molecular weight hydrocarbons, elemental sulfur, carbon

dioxide, and sometimes helium and nitrogen.

The major difficulty in the use of natural gas is transportation and storage. While,

pipelines are used for inland transport, it cannot be used under oceans, which is essential for

global trade. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is a proven commercial technology for transporting

natural gas across oceans. However, as special ships and separate LNG receiving terminals are

required, LNG projects are highly capital intensive in nature.


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The major applications of natural gas are:

Fuel source for power generation

Domestic / Commercial utilization for cooking, warming as piped natural gas

Industrial uses: fuel source for boilers, ovens, air conditioners etc

Feed source for fertilizer manufacture

Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is being widely used as an alternative automobile

fuel

Production of petrochemicals like methanol etc.

The other fractions obtained in natural gas processing like butane and propane are

used in manufacture of LPG (LIquified Petroleum Gas)

Global Scenario

The world's proven natural gas reserves as on January 1, 2009 are estimated at 185.2

trillion cubic metre, of which almost three-quarters are located in the Middle East and Eurasia.

Russia, Iran, and Qatar together account for about 57% of the total reserves.

Natural gas consumption has increased strongly over the past decade. However, despite

this rising consumption, reserves-to-production ratios for most regions are substantial.

Worldwide, the reserves-to-production ratio is estimated at 63 years.

The total global production of natural gas in 2008 is estimated to be 3065.6 billion cubic

metre with the main producing countries being Russia Federation (602 billion cubic metre), US

(582 bcm), Canada (175 bcm) and Iran (116 bcm).

The total global consumption of natural gas in 2008 is estimated to be 3018.7 billion

cubic metre with the main consuming countries being US (657 bcm), Russia Federation (420

billion cubic metre), Iran (117 bcm), Canada (100 bcm) are the major consumers.


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Indian Scenario

Natural gas has gained prominence in India too as in the rest of the world over the last decade.

India has consumed around 41.4 bcm of natural gas in 2008, of which domestic production is

30.6 bcm and imports as LNG has been 10.79 bcm.

The share of imports is expected to increase in the coming years and cross 30%, from current

level of around 25%.

Fertilizer (41%) and power (37%) are the major users of natural gas in India. The fertilizer sector

in India is highly subsidized by the Government and it fixes the rate at which natural gas is

provided to the fertilizer manufacturing units.

Market Influencing Factors

Natural gas prices, too like that of any other commodity are a function of market supply and

demand. As there are limited alternatives for changing consumption or production in the short

run, changes in supply or demand over a short period often result in large price movements.

Strength of economy, weather and crude oil prices are the major demand-side factors influencing

price. Severe winter in developed countries can increase demand for domestic and commercial

heating and is a major influencing factor.

The supply side factors influencing prices are variations in natural gas production, imports and

storage levels. Hurricanes and severe weather can disrupt supply.

Macro-economic factors like exchange rates, interest rates and other economical indicators do

influence natural gas prices.


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1.2 ABOUT THE COMPANY

ABOUT RELIGARE

Religare Enterprises Limited (REL) is a global financial services group with a presence across

Asia, Africa, Middle East, Europe and the Americas. In India, RELs largest market, the group

offers a wide array of products and services ranging from insurance, asset management, broking

and lending solutions to investment banking and wealth management. The group has also

pioneered the concept of investments in alternative asset classes such as arts and films. With

10,000 plus employees across multiple geographies, REL serves over a million clients, including

corporates and institutions, high net worth families and individuals, and retail investors.

Vision - To build Religare as a globally trusted brand in the financial services domain.

Mission - Providing complete financial care driven by the core values of diligence and

transparency.

Brand Essence- Core brand essence is Diligence and Religare is driven by ethical and dynamic

processes for wealth creation.

RELIGARE SECURITIES LIMITED

Religare Securities Limited (RSL), a 100% subsidiary of Religare Enterprises Limited is a

leading equity and securities firm in India. The company currently handles sizeable volumes

traded on NSE and in the realm of online trading and investments; it currently holds a reasonable

share of the market. The major activities and offerings of the company today are Equity Broking,

Depository Participant Services, Institutional Broking and Research Services. To broaden the

gamut of services offered to its investors, the company offers an online investment portal armed

with a host of revolutionary features.

RSL is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India, Bombay Stock

Exchange of India, Depository Participant with National Securities Depository Limited

and Central Depository Services (I) Limited.


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Religare has been constantly innovating in terms of product and services and to

offer such incisive services to specific user segments it has also started the NRI, FII,

HNI and Corporate Servicing groups. These groups take all the portfolio investment

decisions depending upon a client's risk / return parameter.

Religare has a very credible Research and Analysis division, which not only

caters to the need of our Institutional clientele, but also gives their valuable inputs to

investment dealers.

RELIGARE COMMODITITES LIMITED

Religare Commodities Limited (RCL), a wholly owned subsidiary of Religare Enterprises

Limited was initiated to spearhead Exchange based Commodity Trading. As a member ofNCDEX, MCX and NMCE, RCL is a trade facilitator providing the platform to trade in

commodities. Grounded in the Religare philosophy, highly skilled and dedicated professionals

strive to offer the client best investment solutions across the country.

The Operating Fabric - Commodities Business

In terms of the business structure, RCL caters to retail investors through its 529 branches across

the country; Spot Exchange for catering to the needs of the clients who are sitting at commodity

hubs and the Corporate Desk for the HNIs / Corporate catering to special trading strategies as per

their business interests.

Our business philosophy is to treat each client situation as unique, requiring customized

solutions. Our list of corporate clients reads like a Who s Who of the Indian Industry and we

have been successful in providing them with practical customized solutions for their

requirements. We are propelled by our group vision and desire to strive tirelessly and aim to be

the best within this category.


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1.3 ABOUT THE STUDY

The Indian commodity futures market, comprising 19 commodity specific regional exchanges

and three national-level multi-commodity electronic exchanges, has staged a spectacular

comeback with the total turnover increasing by a compounded annual rate of over 100 percent

during this period. This shows the presence and importance of Indian commodity market. Our

commodity market is fully controlled by forward markets commission.

A study on the variation of price level changes in energy commodities with special reference to

Religare Securities Ltd., is based on analytical in nature. The researcher took the secondary data

for analysis by using the various tools like MACD, RSI, ROC, and SD. This will helps to

provide a basic indication about the commodity market. Here the researcher has taken the period

of the study as one year from the financial year 2009-2010. The analysis is conducted on the

energy commodities like Crude oil and Natural gas. This study is conducted on the Indian

context of the commodity market. But it has the effect of the global commodity market. In this

study the researcher tried to find out the price level variation of the energy commodities.


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1.3.1 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

To find out the price level changes associated with the crude oil and natural gas.

SECONDARY OBJECTIVES

o To find out the major factors affecting the crude oil and natural gas.o To find out the rate of changes of commodities over a period of time.o To find out the buy or sell signals.o To find out the greatest volatile commodity.


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1.3.2 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The scope of the study is limited to Indian commodity market. Thus it helps to see the movement

in these commodities. This study would be useful for those who are the commodity traders,

potential traders and trading institutions to understand and evaluate the market. The data taken

for the analysis is on year from 1stApril 2009 to 31stmar 2009.indian market is also dependent

on the international market, so the price changes in the international commodity market will

make an effect on the Indian commodity market also.

I took the commodities as crude oil and natural gas for the study; these commodities are having

more volatility in its prices. The price of crude oil and natural gas is also depending on the

changes that are occurring in the international market because these are the important energy

commodities and its price fluctuating as per the demand and supply of various countries. The

analysis used for the study is the technical analysis and tools used for the study is the Moving

Average Convergence and Divergence, Relative Strength Index, Rate Of Change and Standard

Deviation on the price of the crude oil and natural gas.


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1.3.3 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

The time for the study is very limited and it caused to conduct not for a deep study. Data are collected only from Indian market The effect of speculation is more in commodity market The prediction on the basis of past performance may not be the truth


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CHAPTER-2

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Brown And Jennings (1989)-Unlikely the efficient markets hypothesis which assumes thatinformation is available to all investors and the same gets quickly reflected in prices.

Jagdesh (1990)-In the period of 1934 to n1987 stock with large looser in one month trend show a

signified reversal in the following month and vice versa.

Dow Jones (1991)-The market is always considered as having three movements all going at the

same time. The first is the narrow movement from day to day. The second is the short slowing

running from two weeks to a mark or more, the third is the main movement, covering at least

four years in its duration.

Hirson (1991)-Whether it work or not technical analysis is no quick road to richer even die hard.

Technical analysts say that the method works best when accompanied by fundamental research.For example, time entry and exit point for a stock.

Martin.J. Pring (1991)-The Technical approach to investing is essentially a reflection of the idea

that prices move in trends which are determined by the changing attitudes of investors towards a

variety of economic monetary political and psychological factors

Robert A Levy (1991)-Market prices are determined by the interaction of supply and demand

forces. Supply and demand are influences by a variety of factors both rational and irrational.

Because of persistence of trends and patterns analysis of past market data can be used to predict

future price behavior.


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Chodra Swaminathan (2000)-Trading volume has bearing on lead and large observed in stock

prices return on volume portfolio.

Dow Jones (2007)-No single individual or buyer can influence the major trend of the

market/how ever an individual investor can affect the daily price movement by buying or selling

huge quantum of particular scrip.

Bardie, Kane, Marcus (2008)-As prices unfold each trader infers the goods the goods, nature of

the signals receives by other trader and updates assessments of the firm accordingly. Prices

reveal as well as reflect information and become useful data to traders.

John Magee (2008)-The technician has elected to study not the mass of fundamentals but

certain abstraction namely the market date alone. he is fully aware that he is also aware that

what he is looking it is indeed a fairly high order of abstraction and what on the back of it lies the

whole complicated world of things and events


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REFERENCE

Vk.Bhalla 1982, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management, 14th edition 2008, Page

No.525, 526.

Jagdesh (1990), Journal of finance article, July 1990, April 2000.

Hirson (1991), Wall street journal Dec 19, 1991

Prasanna Chandra 1991, Investment analysis and portfolio mgt, McGraw-Hill publishing co.ltd,

Third edition, page no.465, 466.

Punithavathy pandian,,2007 Security analysis and portfolio management, Vikas publishing house

limited,reprint 2007,Fourth edition Page No_258,259.

S Chand,2007, Security Analysis and Portfolio Management,7thedition.


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CHAPTER-3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

RESEARCH

According to Clifford Woody research comprises defining and redefining problems; formulating

hypothesis or suggested solutions; collecting; organizing and evaluating data making deductions

and researching conclusions.

RESEARCH METHODS

It may be understood as all those methods/techniques that are used for conduction of

research. The researchers use Research methods or techniques, in performing research

operations.

In other words, all those methods which are used by the researcher during the course of

studying his research problem are termed as research methods.

Collection of data Analytical tools Evaluate the accuracy of the results obtained.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Research methodology is a way to systematically solve the research problem. All methods which

are used by the researcher during the course of studying his research problem are termed as

research methods.


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RESEARCH DESIGN

Research Design is the conceptual structure with in which research would be conducted. If

facilitates to be as efficient as possible yielding maximal information or provide for the

collection of relevant evidence with minimal expenditure of effort, time and money.

Type of research

The project work was based on analytical research. Analytical research is using the facts or

available information and analyzing these to make a critical evaluation of the material. This is

most commonly used when we want to know about the financial performance.

Formulation of research problem

Formulation of research means selection of topic up on which research is conducted. In this case

the problem is to find out the variation of price level changes associated with the energy

commodities of crude oil and natural gas.

Period of study

The study covers a period of four quarters from April 2009 march 2010.

SOURCE USED FOR DATA COLLECTION

Secondary sources

The data are collected by using secondary sources such as books and websites.

TOOLS USED FOR THE STUDY

The important tools used for the study is

Technical analysis

Moving Average Convergence and Divergence

Relative Strength Index

Rate of Change

Standard Deviation


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CHAPTER-4

ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

Technical analysis

Technical analysisis asecurity analysis discipline for forecasting the future direction of prices

through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.

Technical Analysis: Introduction

Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing the statistics generated by

market activity, such as past prices andvolume.Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a

security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identifypatterns that can

suggest future activity

Just as there are many investment styles on the fundamental side, there are also many different

types of technical traders. Some rely on chart patterns, others use technical indicators and

oscillators,and most use some combination of the two. In any case, technical analysts' exclusiveuse of historical price and volume data is what separates them from their fundamental

counterparts. Unlike fundamental analysts, technical analysts don't care whether a stock is

undervalued - the only thing that matters is a security's past trading data and what information

this data can provide about where the security might move in the future.

The field of technical analysis is based on three assumptions:

1. The market discounts everything.

2. Price moves in trends.

3. History tends to repeat itself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_analysishttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volume.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/intrinsicvalue.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pattern.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/indicator.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oscillator.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/undervalued.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/undervalued.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oscillator.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/indicator.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pattern.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/intrinsicvalue.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volume.asphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_analysis


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1. The Market Discounts Everything

A major criticism of technical analysis is that it only considers price movement, ignoring the

fundamental factors of the company. However, technical analysis assumes that, at any given

time, a stock's price reflects everything that has or could affect the company - including

fundamental factors. Technical analysts believe that the company's fundamentals, along with

broader economic factors and market psychology, are all priced into the stock, removing the

need to actually consider these factors separately. This only leaves the analysis of price

movement, which technical theory views as a product of the supply and demand for a particular

stock in the market.

2. Price Moves in Trends

In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow trends. This means that after a

trend has been established, the future price movement is more likely to be in the same direction

as the trend than to be against it. Most technical trading strategies are based on this assumption.

3. History Tends To Repeat Itself

Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself, mainly in terms

of price movement. The repetitive nature of price movements is attributed to market psychology;

in other words, market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market stimuli

over time. Technical analysis uses chart patterns to analyze market movements and understand

trends. Although many of these charts have been used for more than 100 years, they are still

believed to be relevant because they illustrate patterns in price movements that often repeat

themselves.

Not Just for Stocks

Technical analysis can be used on any security with historical trading data. This includes stocks,

futures and commodities, fixed-income securities, forex, etc. In this tutorial, we'll usually

analyze stocks in our examples, but keep in mind that these concepts can be applied to any type

of security. In fact, technical analysis is more frequently associated with commodities and forex,

where the participants are predominantlytraders.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fundamentals.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketpsychology.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/futures.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/commodity.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forex.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/daytrader.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/daytrader.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forex.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/commodity.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/futures.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketpsychology.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fundamentals.asp


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TOOLS USED FOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Moving Average Convergence Divergence or MACD

MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence/Divergence. It was originally developed by

Gerald Appel in the 1960's. As the name suggests, it is based upon the principal of the moving

average. The MACD is calculated by simply the taking difference between two exponential

moving averages of different periods. Most stock and share analysts seem to prefer to compare a

26 dayexponential moving average (EMA) with a 12 day EMA.

Calculation of MACD

Simply deducting the longer (for example the 26 day) Exponential Moving Average from the

shorter (e.g. 12 day) EMA gives you the MACD value. This value oscillates around a zero point,

zeros being where the 26 day EMA is identical, and therefore (usually) crosses over the 12 day

EMA.

Relative Strength Index or RSI

RSI stands for Relative Strength Index. It was originally developed by J. Welles Wilder, Jr, who

first introduced the concept of RSI to the world in his 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical

Trading Systems.

Calculation of the RSI Indicator

Wilder's RSI looks at the positive and negative price changes over a period of days prior to

"today" and, from these changes, calculates a RSI figure for "today" which can oscillate between

0 and 100. Wilde preferred to use 14 days as a period for calculation, and this appears to

continue to be a popular choice, but some analysts and charts may use periods as low as 8 or as

high as 25 days.

RSI = 100 - (100(1+RS))
http://www.pandacash.com/technical-analysis/moving-average/http://www.pandacash.com/technical-analysis/moving-average/http://www.pandacash.com/technical-analysis/moving-average/http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/redirect?tag=springfrog-20&path=ASIN%2F0894590278%2Fqid%3D1100539670%2Fsr%3D2-1%2Fref%3Dpd_ka_b_2_1http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/redirect?tag=springfrog-20&path=ASIN%2F0894590278%2Fqid%3D1100539670%2Fsr%3D2-1%2Fref%3Dpd_ka_b_2_1http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/redirect?tag=springfrog-20&path=ASIN%2F0894590278%2Fqid%3D1100539670%2Fsr%3D2-1%2Fref%3Dpd_ka_b_2_1http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/redirect?tag=springfrog-20&path=ASIN%2F0894590278%2Fqid%3D1100539670%2Fsr%3D2-1%2Fref%3Dpd_ka_b_2_1http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/redirect?tag=springfrog-20&path=ASIN%2F0894590278%2Fqid%3D1100539670%2Fsr%3D2-1%2Fref%3Dpd_ka_b_2_1http://www.pandacash.com/technical-analysis/moving-average/http://www.pandacash.com/technical-analysis/moving-average/http://www.pandacash.com/technical-analysis/moving-average/http://www.pandacash.com/technical-analysis/moving-average/


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Rate OF Change or ROC

ROC stands for Rate of Change, and is one of the most well-known and popular of stock and

share technical indicators. The ROC indicator is an momentum or velocity oscillator, with its

movement oscillating around a central zero-point level. As with many technical indicators, a set

period is used to compare with today's price. This period can be as small as 1 day or as large as

200 days or more, but the most typical periods used are 10, 12 or 25 days.

Calculation of the ROC Indicator

ROC= ((today's closing price - closing price at [period number of days ago]) closing price at

[period number of days ago]) x 100

Standard Deviation (Volatility)

Standard deviation is a statistical term that provides a good indication of volatility. It measures

how widely values (closing prices for instance) are dispersed from the average. Dispersion is the

difference between the actual value (closing price) and the average value (mean closing price).

The larger the difference between the closing prices and the average price, the higher the

standard deviation will be and the higher the volatility. The closer the closing prices are to the

average price, the lower the standard deviation and the lower the volatility.

The mathematical formula is as follows:


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ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION-CRUDE OIL

FIRST QUARTER

4.1 TABLE SHOWING THE FIGURES MACD, SMA, ROC & RSI

Date Close(Rs) MACD SMA ROC RSI

1-Apr-09 2707

2-Apr-09 2861

3-Apr-09 2892

4-Apr-09 2901

6-Apr-09 2875

7-Apr-09 2833

8-Apr-09 2858

9-Apr-09 289711-Apr-09 2939 73.54487 2862.556

13-Apr-09 2866 63.34973 2880.222 5.873661

14-Apr-09 2853 56.86236 2879.333 -0.27962

15-Apr-09 2797 46.71571 2868.778 -3.28492

16-Apr-09 2811 16.92887 2858.778 -3.10238

17-Apr-09 2828 -17.0287 2853.556 -1.63478

18-Apr-09 2835 -53.28 2853.778 0.070597 61.67883

20-Apr-09 2703 -86.0036 2836.556 -5.42337 48.97459

21-Apr-09 2683 -103.431 2812.778 -7.38695 47.38213

22-Apr-09 2643 -121.177 2779.889 -10.0715 44.2809423-Apr-09 2645 -137.899 2755.333 -7.7111 44.47662

24-Apr-09 2722 -151.776 2740.778 -4.59166 51.53371

25-Apr-09 2690 -159.289 2728.889 -3.82553 48.76002

27-Apr-09 2650 -152.38 2711 -5.7275 45.46585

28-Apr-09 2643 -153.151 2690.444 -6.54173 44.89424

29-Apr-09 2682 -142.374 2673.444 -5.39683 48.75948

1-May-09 2783 -132.183 2682.333 2.959674 57.14325

2-May-09 2762 -112.943 2691.111 2.944465 55.12373

4-May-09 2826 -97.1401 2711.444 6.92395 59.788

5-May-09 2829 -76.5009 2731.889 6.956522 59.997886-May-09 2903 -64.4845 2752 6.649522 64.86877

7-May-09 2906 -57.5828 2776 8.02974 65.05454

8-May-09 2974 -51.941 2812 12.22642 69.0497

11-May-09 2979 -57.2536 2849.333 12.71283 69.32738

12-May-09 2998 -78.5925 2884.444 11.78225 70.41364

13-May-09 3006 -104.176 2909.222 8.012936 70.88124


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14-May-09 2967 -115.267 2932 7.422158 65.45051

15-May-09 2898 -132.722 2940 2.547771 57.11308

16-May-09 2877 -142.412 2945.333 1.696713 54.82408

18-May-09 2900 -155.464 2945 -0.10334 56.86324

19-May-09 2928 -171.873 2947.444 0.757054 59.27335

20-May-09 2969 -188.251 2946.889 -0.16812 62.57103

21-May-09 2940 -206.733 2942.556 -1.30916 58.93599

22-May-09 2927 -224.555 2934.667 -2.36825 57.32818

23-May-09 2934 -228.358 2926.667 -2.39521 57.99272

25-May-09 2943 -222.718 2924 -0.8089 58.87939

26-May-09 2982 -213.955 2933.333 2.898551 62.56667

27-May-09 3059 -203.557 2953.556 6.326034 68.56082

28-May-09 3130 -185.239 2979.111 7.931034 72.87408

29-May-09 3132 -169.808 3001.778 6.967213 72.98651

30-May-09 3171 -170.495 3024.222 6.803638 75.14944

1-Jun-09 3237 -146.999 3057.222 10.10204 78.31395

2-Jun-09 3273 -121.673 3095.667 11.82098 79.82322

3-Jun-09 3155 -106.598 3120.222 7.532379 64.08063

4-Jun-09 3310 -89.5894 3161 12.47027 71.91573

5-Jun-09 3303 -77.9093 3196.667 10.76459 71.1608

6-Jun-09 3287 -53.8989 3222 7.453416 69.36833

8-Jun-09 3314 -20.4332 3242.444 5.878594 70.70915

9-Jun-09 3343 -2.81273 3265.889 6.736909 72.12072

10-Jun-09 3404 19.5032 3291.778 7.34784 74.86463

11-Jun-09 3491 3320 7.846772 78.1653612-Jun-09 3470 3341.889 6.018943 75.5852

13-Jun-09 3473 3377.222 10.07924 75.70856

15-Jun-09 3400 3387.222 2.719033 66.85644

16-Jun-09 3425 3400.778 3.693612 68.22659

17-Jun-09 3417 3415.222 3.954974 67.26826

18-Jun-09 3478 3433.444 4.948702 70.65316

19-Jun-09 3400 3439.778 1.705055 61.84596

20-Jun-09 3386 3437.778 -0.52879 60.39085

22-Jun-09 3289 3415.333 -5.78631 51.37222

23-Jun-09 3341 3401 -3.71758 55.2319224-Jun-09 3335 3385.667 -3.97351 54.6925

25-Jun-09 3428 3388.778 0.823529 61.04343

26-Jun-09 3353 3380.778 -2.10219 54.41856

27-Jun-09 3352 3373.556 -1.90225 54.33389

29-Jun-09 3449 3370.333 -0.83381 60.71844

30-Jun-09 3344 3364.111 -1.64706 52.20929


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4.1.1 CHART SHOWING MACD AND SMA

INTERPRETATION

The above charts represent simple moving average and moving average convergence divergence.

The SMA shows just the price variation. A sharper movement of the up or down of the MACD is

the stronger sign to buy or sell commodities. Here in the starting period of the first quarter the

MACD shows a decrease up to 29thApril, then it moves upward but it is not touching the signal

line and it again coming down till 25thmay, after that it shows an upward movement and which

crosses the signal line.

INFERENCE

The chart shows an upward trend in the last month. An upward trend is the signal to buy the

commodity and sell when price rises.


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4.1.2 CHART SHOWING RSI

INTERPRETATION

RSI is a momentum oscillator, which measures the speed of directional price movement and it

also indicates when a stock or share is overbought or oversold. If RSI drops below 30 it indicates

the commodity is oversold and above 70 shows overbought.

Here in the chart shows from the 18 th April to 15th May the RSI shows an upward more than 70

and no downward less than 30.on 16thmay an upward movement was there. Then it comes down,

from 30thmay the RSI go beyond the 80 mark and then it starts coming down.

INFERENCE

Here when the RSI cross the 70 that was a time to sell the shares. In the June the RSI shows

decreasing trend, so once it comes down below 30 the investors can buy the security in order to

make profit


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4.1.3 CHART SHOWING ROC

INTERPRETATION

Rate of Change Indicator can give a good idea of a stock, share or market's cyclical pattern of

movement upwards and downwards, and the graphical display of ROC can be a way to identify

these cycles better than just looking at the share price graph alone.

In the above chart 13thApril to 20thApril ROC shows a downward movement. From 27thApril

09 onwards ROC shows a high increase, then it starts coming down till 23rdMay ,then it again

starts increasing. From 15 June the ROC shows coming down. In the 29 th June the shows a

decreasing trend.

INFERENCE

In the month of June 09 the ROC shows a negative movement. So here if the investor buys

commodity means there is a chance of facing loss, now it shows a sell signal.


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SECOND QUARTER



1-Jul-09 3638

2-Jul-09 3401

3-Jul-09 3390

4-Jul-09 3384

6-Jul-09 3301

7-Jul-09 3270

8-Jul-09 3200

9-Jul-09 3116

10-Jul-09 3116 -34.0769 3312.889

11-Jul-09 3116 -61.9515 3254.889 -14.3485

13-Jul-09 3105 -86.5433 3222 -8.70332

14-Jul-09 3125 -97.5934 3192.556 -7.81711

15-Jul-09 3148 -107.008 3166.333 -6.974

16-Jul-09 3165 -115.95 3151.222 -4.11996

17-Jul-09 3267 -123.846 3150.889 -0.09174 23.30935

18-Jul-09 3275 -129.664 3159.222 2.34375 24.24839

20-Jul-09 3288 -119.627 3178.333 5.519897 25.83753

21-Jul-09 3307 -106.03 3199.556 6.129653 28.20803

22-Jul-09 3313 -92.1632 3221.444 6.322208 28.98003

23-Jul-09 3405 -82.9949 3254.778 9.661836 39.68928

24-Jul-09 3442 -86.3532 3290 10.144 43.38668

25-Jul-09 3450 -100.695 3323.556 9.593393 44.18345

27-Jul-09 3453 -92.2034 3355.556 9.099526 44.49891

28-Jul-09 3399 -85.1147 3370.222 4.040404 40.1052

29-Jul-09 3271 -83.8503 3369.778 -0.12214 32.03169

30-Jul-09 3392 -70.7929 3381.333 3.163017 43.59185

31-Jul-09 3434 -61.4484 3395.444 3.840339 46.96377

1-Aug-09 3472 -51.0337 3413.111 4.799276 49.88283

3-Aug-09 3539 -40.7654 3428 3.935389 54.62485

4-Aug-09 3539 -27.6234 3438.778 2.818129 54.62485

5-Aug-09 3563 -19.8384 3451.333 3.275362 56.341

6-Aug-09 3590 -14.8178 3466.556 3.967564 58.2539

7-Aug-09 3573 -18.6869 3485.889 5.119153 56.57317

8-Aug-09 3547 -16.7076 3516.556 8.437787 54.00674

10-Aug-09 3543 -2.31115 3533.333 4.451651 53.60385

11-Aug-09 3517 -5.752 3542.556 2.417006 50.94357

12-Aug-09 3550 -7.84666 3551.222 2.246544 54.05993


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13-Aug-09 3578 4.567443 3555.556 1.102006 56.58031

14-Aug-09 3456 36.97656 3546.333 -2.3453 44.99674

17-Aug-09 3428 60.14067 3531.333 -3.78894 42.82951

18-Aug-09 3518 82.46423 3523.333 -2.00557 50.99903

19-Aug-09 3655 92.82071 3532.444 2.29499 60.29912

20-Aug-09 3616 103.2958 3540.111 1.945306 56.98353

21-Aug-09 3627 95.85266 3549.444 2.370872 57.69018

22-Aug-09 3631 96.6781 3562.111 3.241399 57.96062

24-Aug-09 3656 99.52791 3573.889 2.985915 59.69468

25-Aug-09 3548 110.6549 3570.556 -0.83846 50.08363

26-Aug-09 3536 113.8837 3579.444 2.314815 49.13699

27-Aug-09 3547 95.64554 3592.667 3.471412 50.06865

28-Aug-09 3600 72.67665 3601.778 2.33087 54.40243

29-Aug-09 3591 42.94688 3594.667 -1.75103 53.55242

31-Aug-09 3472 20.46974 3578.667 -3.9823 43.8063

1-Sep-09 3434 9.594819 3557.222 -5.3212 41.22614

2-Sep-09 3372 -5.96353 3528.444 -7.13302 37.35975

3-Sep-09 3379 -11.4755 3497.667 -7.57659 38.06599

4-Sep-09 3378 14.93508 3478.778 -4.79143 38.00008

5-Sep-09 3364 44.40846 3459.667 -4.86425 37.03327

7-Sep-09 3360 69.39293 3438.889 -5.27206 36.74561

8-Sep-09 3493 68.90053 3427 -2.97222 50.51054

9-Sep-09 3520 3419.111 -1.97717 52.75808

10-Sep-09 3512 3423.556 1.152074 52.00447

11-Sep-09 3388 3418.444 -1.33955 41.99202

12-Sep-09 3389 3420.333 0.504152 42.08885

14-Sep-09 3388 3421.333 0.266351 42.01332

15-Sep-09 3459 3430.333 2.397869 49.00969

16-Sep-09 3495 3444.889 3.894174 52.16144

17-Sep-09 3515 3462.111 4.613095 53.86746

18-Sep-09 3521 3465.222 0.801603 54.39292

19-Sep-09 3495 3462.444 -0.71023 51.6476

21-Sep-09 3381 3447.889 -3.73007 41.70768

22-Sep-09 3445 3454.222 1.682409 47.78344

23-Sep-09 3335 3448.222 -1.59339 40.05572

24-Sep-09 3202 3427.556 -5.48996 33.08804

25-Sep-09 3182 3396.778 -8.00809 32.18148

26-Sep-09 3185 3362.333 -8.86981 32.48032

28-Sep-09 3238 3331.556 -7.88051 37.70292

29-Sep-09 3210 3297 -8.83272 36.11366

30-Sep-09 3337 3279.444 -4.52074 47.02174


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INTERPRETATION

Here in the starting period of the second quarter the MACD shows a decreases from 10thJuly 09

to 17thJuly, then it moves upward till 24thJuly and then it shows an crossing the signal line and

it increases up to 28thaugust then it comes down below the signal line but from 4thsep 2009 it

shows an increase in the MACD

INFERENCE

In the month of Aug 09 the MACD shows a positive movement. An upward movement of the

MACD line and if it crossing the signal line means it is the time to buy the commodity. Now it

shows a buy signal.


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INTERPRETATION

In the chart on 17thJuly 09 RSI is below the 30 and it starts increasing. On 31stJuly 2009

the RSI Came down, then starts an upward movement.Then till the last month a small variations

were in the RSI. Then from 25thsep onwards it starts moving upward.

INFERENCE

In the month of Sep 09 the RSI shows increasing trend, but now the trend shows a buy signal of

the commodity.


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INTERPRETATION

In this chart on 11thJuly onwards the ROC shows an increase, on 25 thJuly 2009 it starts coming

down. Then it increases up to 8thaugust 09.then it comes down. From 5thSep 2009 ROC starts

increasing and on 19 Sep it again starts coming down.

INFERENCE

In the last few days in the month of Sep 09 ROC shows a positive movement, so it is a better

signal to buy the securities in order to get profit from the upward movement of the price.


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THIRD QUARTER



1-Oct-09 3461

3-Oct-09 3461

5-Oct-09 3421

6-Oct-09 3438

7-Oct-09 3353

8-Oct-09 3385

9-Oct-09 3425

10-Oct-09 3425

12-Oct-09 3509 -158.865 3430.889

13-Oct-09 3516 -135.704 3437 1.589136

14-Oct-09 3540 -112.24 3445.778 2.282577

15-Oct-09 3571 -97.2036 3462.444 4.384683

16-Oct-09 3661 -84.7882 3487.222 6.486329

17-Oct-09 3723 -47.5934 3528.333 11.03489

19-Oct-09 3714 -20.1606 3564.889 9.71935 74.28023

20-Oct-09 3712 -2.97913 3596.778 8.379562 73.97442

21-Oct-09 3829 13.23402 3641.667 11.79562 79.3345

22-Oct-09 3814 20.3841 3675.556 8.691935 77.14096

23-Oct-09 3809 32.48307 3708.111 8.333333 76.38283

24-Oct-09 3794 39.08502 3736.333 7.175141 74.03219

26-Oct-09 3768 56.52431 3758.222 5.516662 70.01041

27-Oct-09 3777 50.48931 3771.111 3.168533 70.60568

28-Oct-09 3740 41.69849 3773 0.456621 64.90211

29-Oct-09 3807 38.87719 3783.333 2.504039 69.67865

30-Oct-09 3706 49.22657 3782.667 -0.16164 57.06992

31-Oct-09 3699 65.77692 3768.222 -3.39514 56.30939

2-Nov-09 3725 76.26193 3758.333 -2.33351 58.52045

3-Nov-09 3793 64.09195 3756.556 -0.42006 63.69528

4-Nov-09 3826 63.45059 3760.111 0.843437 65.91748

5-Nov-09 3811 71.7008 3764.889 1.141189 63.99987

6-Nov-09 3681 69.48999 3754.222 -2.5417 50.33346

7-Nov-09 3703 74.57849 3750.111 -0.9893 52.19393

9-Nov-09 3771 68.21105 3746.111 -0.94563 57.49398

10-Nov-09 3709 51.71565 3746.444 0.08095 51.84968

11-Nov-09 3741 40.47035 3751.111 1.135442 54.34115

12-Nov-09 3673 43.19872 3745.333 -1.39597 48.58772

13-Nov-09 3646 51.83548 3729 -3.87556 46.48329


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14-Nov-09 3628 56.98012 3707 -5.17512 45.08145

16-Nov-09 3703 58.54951 3695 -2.8339 51.62743

17-Nov-09 3736 58.64463 3701.111 1.494159 54.21345

18-Nov-09 3723 70.92262 3703.333 0.540103 53.01114

19-Nov-09 3689 88.34356 3694.222 -2.17449 49.89456

20-Nov-09 3652 91.05408 3687.889 -1.5368 46.67841

21-Nov-09 3671 100.1913 3680.111 -1.87116 48.51372

23-Nov-09 3686 107.6158 3681.556 0.353934 49.97757

24-Nov-09 3601 109.4655 3676.556 -1.23423 42.58823

25-Nov-09 3630 107.5134 3676.778 0.055127 45.54639

26-Nov-09 3629 122.9354 3668.556 -1.99838 45.4594

27-Nov-09 3605 121.3437 3654 -3.50642 43.32109

30-Nov-09 3613 119.1069 3641.778 -2.95461 44.26224

1-Dec-09 3711 117.8262 3644.222 0.596368 54.27803

2-Dec-09 3633 116.3291 3642.111 -0.52026 47.0337

3-Dec-09 3626 104.2805 3637.111 -1.22582 46.43473

4-Dec-09 3612 82.63821 3628.889 -2.0076 45.19508

5-Dec-09 3618 44.56359 3630.778 0.472091 45.86214

7-Dec-09 3588 1.131199 3626.111 -1.15702 43.04124

8-Dec-09 3533 -35.7418 3615.444 -2.64536 38.38036

9-Dec-09 3417 -72.9131 3594.556 -5.21498 30.80386

10-Dec-09 3371 -102.402 3567.667 -6.69803 28.4089

11-Dec-09 3377 3530.556 -9.00027 29.18231

12-Dec-09 3363 3500.556 -7.43187 28.41105

14-Dec-09 3383 3473.556 -6.7016 31.20814

15-Dec-09 3408 3450.889 -5.64784 34.64555

16-Dec-09 3484 3436 -3.7037 43.83369

17-Dec-09 3462 3422 -3.51171 41.99324

18-Dec-09 3504 3418.778 -0.82083 46.60268

19-Dec-09 3504 3428.444 2.546093 46.60268

21-Dec-09 3469 3439.333 2.907149 43.27889

22-Dec-09 3492 3452.111 3.405389 46.00427

23-Dec-09 3578 3476 6.393101 54.75776

24-Dec-09 3614 3501.667 6.828259 57.83898

26-Dec-09 3633 3526.667 6.602113 59.41018

28-Dec-09 3681 3548.556 5.65442 63.14671

29-Dec-09 3684 3573.222 6.412478 63.37365

30-Dec-09 3725 3597.778 6.307078 66.41731

31-Dec-09 3727 3622.556 6.364155 66.56327


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INTERPRETATION

In the starting period of the third quarter the MACD moves upward and crosses the signal line, it

is a best time for buying the commodity, then it shows only a small changes in the MACD up to

5thDecember, then it shows a high decrease thereafter.

INFERENCE

In the month of Dec 09 MACD of the commodity show coming down and it crosses the signal

line negatively. So it is not a buy the commodity because it shows a downward trend.


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INTERPRETATION

In the on 19thOct the RSI is beyond the 70 mark, so now it is a sell signal. Then it came down

till 2ndNov. Then it starts a small increase and then it came down. On 30 thNov it shows a slight

upward movement. In the last of the quarter the RSI shows an increase.

INFERENCE

In the month of Dec 09 onwards the RSI shows an increase, so it was a time to buy the securities

because the RSI was below 30 mark .now RSI is near the 70 mark limit. Now the RSI movement

shows a sell signal.


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INTERPRETATION

The chart shows more fluctuation in the price. On 13thOct ROC shows an increasing trend. On

20th Oct it starts coming down till 1st Nov. On 15th Dec onwards the ROC show an upward

movement.

INFERENCE

In the month of Dec the ROC keep moving in straight line in its prices i.e. there is no that much

fluctuation in the price.


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FOURTH QUARTER



1-Jan-10 3809

2-Jan-10 3809

4-Jan-10 3835

5-Jan-10 3861

6-Jan-10 3820

7-Jan-10 3873

8-Jan-10 3887

9-Jan-10 3887

11-Jan-10 3876 141.1026 3850.778

12-Jan-10 3816 127.8547 3851.556 0.183775

13-Jan-10 3737 111.8759 3843.556 -1.89026

14-Jan-10 3754 110.0819 3834.556 -2.11213

15-Jan-10 3708 111.758 3817.556 -3.9627

16-Jan-10 3677 110.8973 3801.667 -3.74346

18-Jan-10 3680 105.2954 3780.222 -4.98322 34.15233

19-Jan-10 3650 88.15666 3753.889 -6.09725 31.64069

20-Jan-10 3649 66.47066 3727.444 -6.12297 31.55738

21-Jan-10 3605 48.87086 3697.333 -6.99174 28.05687

22-Jan-10 3547 39.03772 3667.444 -7.04927 24.23987

23-Jan-10 3510 23.88597 3642.222 -6.07439 22.16798

25-Jan-10 3528 8.802568 3617.111 -6.02025 25.50397

27-Jan-10 3525 -15.2292 3596.778 -4.93528 25.30927

28-Jan-10 3484 -28.7728 3575.333 -5.24884 22.75273

29-Jan-10 3464 -25.8253 3551.333 -5.86957 21.60621

30-Jan-10 3439 -26.008 3527.889 -5.78082 20.23369

1-Feb-10 3490 -51.1709 3510.222 -4.35736 30.00241

2-Feb-10 3614 -86.177 3511.222 0.249653 46.99832

3-Feb-10 3620 -105.624 3519.333 2.058077 47.66055

4-Feb-10 3473 -126.101 3515.222 -1.05413 35.84417

5-Feb-10 3384 -128.297 3499.222 -4.08163 30.85618

6-Feb-10 3435 -129.804 3489.222 -2.55319 36.32439

8-Feb-10 3426 -126.223 3482.778 -1.66475 35.78653

9-Feb-10 3489 -131.574 3485.556 0.721709 42.23447

10-Feb-10 3519 -138.991 3494.444 2.326258 45.06339

11-Feb-10 3553 -145.349 3501.444 1.805158 48.16185

12-Feb-10 3482 -134.873 3486.778 -3.65246 42.74073

13-Feb-10 3498 -127.055 3473.222 -3.37017 44.26328


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15-Feb-10 3494 -111.903 3475.556 0.604665 43.94866

16-Feb-10 3601 -92.181 3499.667 6.41253 53.47542

17-Feb-10 3613 -73.4624 3519.444 5.181951 54.41126

18-Feb-10 3673 -58.8656 3546.889 7.209574 58.86646

19-Feb-10 3714 -55.0834 3571.889 6.448839 61.62616

20-Feb-10 3736 -44.9168 3596 6.166525 63.05837

22-Feb-10 3725 -49.2773 3615.111 4.840979 61.81607

23-Feb-10 3684 -39.8928 3637.556 5.801264 57.28597

24-Feb-10 3714 -36.9004 3661.556 6.174957 59.61791

25-Feb-10 3633 -42.6255 3677 3.978248 51.45049

26-Feb-10 3690 -37.3146 3686.889 2.471536 56.01684

27-Feb-10 3690 -28.6316 3695.444 2.131193 56.01684

1-Mar-10 3651 -21.7645 3693 -0.59897 52.12638

2-Mar-10 3722 -12.2844 3693.889 0.215401 57.86379

3-Mar-10 3708 -5.35513 3690.778 -0.74946 56.42775

4-Mar-10 3711 0.772969 3689.222 -0.37584 56.67587

5-Mar-10 3745 8.021216 3696 1.655809 59.49133

6-Mar-10 3747 17.18128 3699.667 0.88853 59.65741

8-Mar-10 3732 29.22199 3710.667 2.725021 57.74521

9-Mar-10 3745 28.25422 3716.778 1.490515 58.97259

10-Mar-10 3733 28.18256 3721.556 1.165312 57.31754

11-Mar-10 3759 15.1158 3733.556 2.958094 59.9408

12-Mar-10 3721 3733.444 -0.02687 54.65382

13-Mar-10 3725 3735.333 0.458468 55.10274

15-Mar-10 3664 3730.111 -1.2665 47.39675

16-Mar-10 3733 3728.778 -0.32043 55.05366

17-Mar-10 3760 3730.222 0.346944 57.6513

18-Mar-10 3765 3733.889 0.884244 58.13385

19-Mar-10 3674 3726 -1.89586 47.52081

20-Mar-10 3689 3721.111 -1.17868 49.16815

22-Mar-10 3711 3715.778 -1.27694 51.56936

23-Mar-10 3729 3716.667 0.214996 53.50461

24-Mar-10 3692 3713 -0.88591 49.15639

25-Mar-10 3692 3716.111 0.764192 49.15639

26-Mar-10 3627 3704.333 -2.83954 42.17341

27-Mar-10 3629 3689.778 -3.48404 42.44433

29-Mar-10 3706 3683.222 -1.56707 51.80614

30-Mar-10 3703 3686.444 0.78933 51.45497

31-Mar-10 3751 3693.333 1.680672 56.53198


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4.4 .1 CHART SHOWING MACD AND SMA

INTERPRETATION

In the 4thquarter from 11thJan 10 to 14 Feb. 10 the MACD shows a decrease and it also crossing

the signal line negatively, then from 16thFeb. 10 MACD shows an increase and it crosses the

signal line but on 10thmarch it again show a downward movement and it may cross the signal

line.

INFERENCE

In the month of Mar 09 MACD of the crude oil shows a downward movement, and it may cross

the signal line also. Now the MACD shows a sell signal.

.


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4.4 .2 CHART SHOWING RSI

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows a positive movement in the starting. On 1st Feb RSI shows an increase and it is

now below 30 marks. On 22ndFeb the RSI were moves near the 70 mark limit. From 29 thmar

onwards the ROC shows an increase.

INFERENCE

In the month of 29THmar the RSI showing a increasing trend, so it is a time to sell the securities

to make profit.


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4.4 .3 CHART SHOWING ROC

INTERPRETATION

The chart shows a increase in the ROC from 12 th Jan to 19th Jan. from 26th Jan it shows an

increase. On 9th Feb it shows a decline. On 16th Feb ROC shows high increase and it comes

down on 2ndMar. On 30thMar ROC shows an increase in its movements.

INFERENCE

In the month of Mar 10 the ROC shows an upward movement. Now it shows a buy signal of the

securities , because there is a chance of getting profit because of the upward trend.


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ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION-NATURAL GAS

FIRST QUARTER


Date Close MACD SMA ROC RSI

1-Apr-09 202.5

2-Apr-09 206.7

3-Apr-09 206.5

4-Apr-09 209.7

6-Apr-09 203.9

7-Apr-09 198.5

8-Apr-09 199

9-Apr-09 197.711-Apr-09 197.7 6.662821 202.4667

13-Apr-09 197.1 6.148576 201.8667 -2.66667

14-Apr-09 199.7 7.322331 201.0889 -3.38655

15-Apr-09 199.2 7.376158 200.2778 -3.53511

16-Apr-09 196.8 5.894958 198.8444 -6.15165

17-Apr-09 204.5 3.378406 198.9111 0.294262

18-Apr-09 204.1 0.599018 199.5333 2.821159 52.29885

20-Apr-09 197.4 -3.1569 199.3556 -0.80402 43.31747

21-Apr-09 195 -7.82599 199.0556 -1.36571 40.62607

22-Apr-09 192.7 -11.5431 198.5 -2.52908 38.1779823-Apr-09 186.2 -14.3899 197.2889 -5.53019 32.26133

24-Apr-09 179.6 -16.1469 195.0556 -10.0651 27.58642

25-Apr-09 178.2 -17.1451 192.7222 -10.5422 26.7025

27-Apr-09 177.6 -16.5621 190.5889 -9.7561 26.31336

28-Apr-09 181.5 -16.0185 188.0333 -11.2469 33.13439

29-Apr-09 181.9 -13.528 185.5667 -10.877 33.81114

1-May-09 186.7 -11.5582 184.3778 -5.42047 41.46694

2-May-09 185.8 -7.78753 183.3556 -4.71795 40.52055

4-May-09 192 -3.37757 183.2778 -0.36326 49.13314

5-May-09 186.5 2.092658 183.3111 0.161117 43.16246-May-09 199 7.11984 185.4667 10.80178 56.19218

7-May-09 205.3 10.97795 188.4778 15.20763 61.0399

8-May-09 216.5 15.40834 192.8 21.90315 67.85096

11-May-09 218.8 17.76653 196.9444 20.55096 69.04766

12-May-09 222.5 18.22077 201.4556 22.31996 70.92277

13-May-09 227 18.20149 205.9333 21.58543 73.06034


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14-May-09 218.8 18.4291 209.6 17.76103 63.84928

15-May-09 212.2 17.11935 211.8444 10.52083 57.55918

16-May-09 210.8 15.37844 214.5444 13.02949 56.29234

18-May-09 204.5 11.91558 215.1556 2.763819 50.86687

19-May-09 195.2 8.324846 214.0333 -4.91963 44.10857

20-May-09 193.4 5.440083 211.4667 -10.6697 42.91996

21-May-09 179.7 2.898003 207.1222 -17.8702 35.15509

22-May-09 172 0.237422 201.5111 -22.6966 31.68541

23-May-09 171.9 -1.55691 195.3889 -24.2731 31.64173

25-May-09 170.7 -0.93359 190.0444 -21.9835 31.08793

26-May-09 172.6 -2.20781 185.6444 -18.6616 33.08491

27-May-09 173.8 -2.88581 181.5333 -17.5522 34.37833

28-May-09 188.4 -2.86333 179.7444 -7.87286 47.63933

29-May-09 182.3 -2.24841 178.3111 -6.60861 43.66869

30-May-09 184.8 -4.11252 177.3556 -4.44674 45.6674

1-Jun-09 192.4 -6.12899 178.7667 7.067334 51.32188

2-Jun-09 194.8 -6.51535 181.3 13.25581 52.98585

3-Jun-09 178.1 -6.93355 181.9889 3.606748 42.18105

4-Jun-09 180.1 -7.92805 183.0333 5.506737 43.66271

5-Jun-09 185.7 -9.31545 184.4889 7.589803 47.70376

6-Jun-09 184.4 -10.5453 185.6667 6.098964 46.86339

8-Jun-09 177.7 -10.0918 184.4778 -5.67941 42.68937

9-Jun-09 176.3 -9.85738 183.8111 -3.29128 41.85056

10-Jun-09 176.1 -8.93689 182.8444 -4.70779 41.72443

11-Jun-09 187.8 182.3333 -2.39085 51.0236

12-Jun-09 184 181.1333 -5.54415 48.32633

13-Jun-09 185.6 181.9667 4.211117 49.53597

15-Jun-09 197.3 183.8778 9.55025 57.39085

16-Jun-09 196.2 185.0444 5.654281 56.50042

17-Jun-09 203.2 187.1333 10.19523 60.68112

18-Jun-09 198.9 189.4889 11.93022 57.05366

19-Jun-09 195.6 191.6333 10.94725 54.36758

20-Jun-09 205.2 194.8667 16.5247 60.23302

22-Jun-09 197.8 195.9778 5.324814 54.42569

23-Jun-09 195.8 197.2889 6.413043 52.94007

24-Jun-09 190.2 197.8 2.478448 48.914

25-Jun-09 194.8 197.5222 -1.26711 52.13416

26-Jun-09 194.9 197.3778 -0.66259 52.20469

27-Jun-09 198.8 196.8889 -2.16535 54.99028

29-Jun-09 192.4 196.1667 -3.26797 49.85525

30-Jun-09 186 195.1 -4.90798 45.29974


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INTERPRETATION

In the above chart from 11thApril to 25thApril the MACD shows a downward movement and

also crosses the signal line, then up to 16 thmay the MACD shows an upward trend, but from 16 th

May onwards it shows a negative movement and crosses the signal line

INFERENCE

In the month of June 09 the MACD of the commodity shows a negative movement and it crosses

the signal line, so now it shows a sell signal.


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INTERPRETATION

The chart shows an increase in the RSI from 18thApril, then on 25thApril it starts moving up and

on 16thmay it crosses the 70 mark limit. Then it came down. On 30 thmay RSI shows a small

increase. On 27 Jun the RSI shows a negative movement.

INFERENCE

In the month of June09 the RSI shows a decrease, it indicates the signal to sell the commodities

and when the RSI reaches the 30 mark limit it will be a buy signal.


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INTERPRETATION

The chart shows a high increase of ROC from 27 April 2009.on 11th may the ROC shows a

negative movement. On 25thmay the ROC shows an increasing trend and it came down. From

22ndJune onwards the ROC shows a negative movement.

INFERENCE

The chart shows a decrease in the price movements from 22nd June 2009.it indicates the sell

signal of the commodity.


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SECOND QUARTER


Date Close MACD SMA ROC RSI

1-Jul-09 206.32-Jul-09 202.6

3-Jul-09 196.8

4-Jul-09 197.2

6-Jul-09 191.6

7-Jul-09 191.6

8-Jul-09 188.7

9-Jul-09 186.7

10-Jul-09 186 -2.25513 194.1667

11-Jul-09 185.9 -3.29758 191.9 -9.88851

13-Jul-09 181.1 -1.71263 189.5111 -10.61214-Jul-09 188.1 -0.78411 188.5444 -4.42073

15-Jul-09 182.2 -0.37249 186.8778 -7.60649

16-Jul-09 198.1 -0.8201 187.6 3.392484

17-Jul-09 203.3 -0.31929 188.9 6.106472 47.50

18-Jul-09 200.6 1.605497 190.2222 6.306306 45.30

20-Jul-09 198.1 1.494088 191.4889 6.106052 43.31

21-Jul-09 198.8 2.078663 192.9111 6.88172 44.05

22-Jul-09 205.9 2.855994 195.1333 10.75847 51.06

23-Jul-09 194.7 3.51281 196.6444 7.509663 42.10

24-Jul-09 198.2 3.477405 197.7667 5.369484 45.3325-Jul-09 198.4 2.63625 199.5667 8.891328 45.52

27-Jul-09 196.8 3.816696 199.4222 -0.65623 44.21

28-Jul-09 190.8 4.177825 198.0333 -6.14855 39.63

29-Jul-09 184.7 4.657594 196.2667 -7.92622 35.60

30-Jul-09 194.4 8.253335 195.8556 -1.86774 45.16

31-Jul-09 188.1 11.65851 194.6667 -5.38229 40.91

1-Aug-09 188.3 15.55021 192.7111 -8.54784 41.10

3-Aug-09 205.1 16.85397 193.8667 5.341551 54.35

4-Aug-09 203.6 17.36712 194.4667 2.724521 53.20

5-Aug-09 208.4 18.04304 195.5778 5.040323 56.386-Aug-09 196.9 18.85987 195.5889 0.050813 47.97

7-Aug-09 191.3 19.58747 195.6444 0.262055 44.48

8-Aug-09 191.9 20.06024 196.4444 3.898213 44.95

10-Aug-09 190.3 20.12454 195.9889 -2.10905 43.90

11-Aug-09 187.3 20.67777 195.9 -0.42531 41.93

12-Aug-09 184.6 21.01232 195.4889 -1.96495 40.18


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13-Aug-09 180.9 21.80763 192.8 -11.7991 37.85

14-Aug-09 180.2 22.36284 190.2 -11.4931 37.40

17-Aug-09 175.8 21.49056 186.5778 -15.643 34.66

18-Aug-09 172.6 20.37421 183.8778 -12.3413 32.78

19-Aug-09 172.1 18.90159 181.7444 -10.0366 32.49

20-Aug-09 165.3 18.25606 178.7889 -13.8614 28.68

21-Aug-09 159.1 16.81406 175.3222 -16.3952 25.73

22-Aug-09 157.6 15.73768 172.0222 -15.8569 25.05

24-Aug-09 162.7 14.14124 169.5889 -11.8635 31.60

25-Aug-09 160.6 11.11506 167.3333 -11.2217 30.42

26-Aug-09 160.2 7.662473 165.1111 -11.0988 30.19

27-Aug-09 155.1 4.132241 162.8111 -11.7747 27.34

28-Aug-09 150.2 -0.026 160.3222 -12.978 24.91

29-Aug-09 148.6 -4.87276 157.7111 -13.6549 24.15

31-Aug-09 147.5 -10.8459 155.7333 -10.7683 23.62

1-Sep-09 141.3 -15.3405 153.7556 -11.1879 20.84

2-Sep-09 136.3 -17.5425 151.3889 -13.5152 18.91

3-Sep-09 125.3 -21.6574 147.2333 -22.9871 15.50

4-Sep-09 129.1 -24.6306 143.7333 -19.6139 20.81

5-Sep-09 135.8 -26.2714 141.0222 -15.231 29.25

7-Sep-09 130 -30.2312 138.2333 -16.1831 26.60

8-Sep-09 136.3 -33.8621 136.6889 -9.25433 33.62

9-Sep-09 140.4 -37.905 135.7778 -5.51817 37.79

10-Sep-09 149.3 -39.1881 135.9778 1.220339 45.75

11-Sep-09 146.9 136.6 3.963199 44.1112-Sep-09 146.1 137.6889 7.190022 43.55

14-Sep-09 159.1 141.4444 26.97526 53.82

15-Sep-09 167.3 145.6889 29.58947 58.90

16-Sep-09 172.1 149.7222 26.73049 61.56

17-Sep-09 173.6 154.5667 33.53846 62.38

18-Sep-09 179.7 159.3889 31.84153 65.60

19-Sep-09 180.3 163.8222 28.4188 65.91

21-Sep-09 178.9 167.1111 19.82585 64.45

22-Sep-09 169.7 169.6444 15.52076 55.75

23-Sep-09 187.4 174.2333 28.26831 65.4224-Sep-09 191.6 177.8444 20.4274 67.25

25-Sep-09 186.1 179.9333 11.2373 62.58

26-Sep-09 237.7 187.2222 38.11737 78.01

28-Sep-09 230.9 193.5889 33.00691 73.70

29-Sep-09 237.7 200.0333 32.27602 75.17

30-Sep-09 231 205.6667 28.1198 70.95


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INTERPRETATION

In the above chart from 10thJuly 09 to 26thJuly 09 the MACD shows a parallel movement and

from 28thJuly it shows a positive movement and it crosses the signal line. From 25 thaugust 09

the MACD shows a negative movement.

INFERENCE

In the chart in the last few days the MACD shows a negative movement and it crosses the signal

line also. There is a chance of loss if purchased the commodity. So it is not a time for buying the

commodity.


62/98

62


INTERPRETATION

The chart shows a

a study on the variation of price level changes in energy commodities with special reference to...

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