a structured decision support system for flood mitigation raymond laine 2011 asfpm national...
TRANSCRIPT
A Structured Decision Support System For Flood Mitigation
Raymond Laine
2011 ASFPM National Conference
Welcome
• Australia’s recent floods
• The Australian floodplain risk management process
• Decision support system for flood management?
• FLODSS
• Case study / application
• Limitations
• Conclusion
La Niña & SOI values this year
Brisbane, QLD 2011 ($3.9b)
Wollongong, NSW 2011 ($1m)
Flooding in Australia
Victoria 2011 ($676m)
2011= $5.6 b +
Damages applied to US
"The best preliminary estimate of the direct cost to the federal budget of the summer's flood disaster is A$5.6bn”
Julia Gillard (Australian Prime Minister)
5,600,000,000 (Damage) / 21,874,000 (Australian Population)= $256 damage per person
$256 (Damage Per person) X 307,006,000 (US Population)= $78,593,000,000 damage
Since January 2011
The Australian FMP Process
Floodplain Management in Australia: Principles and Guidelines(SCRAM 2000)
The New South Wales FMP Process
Floodplain Risk Management
Plan
Floodplain Risk Management
Plan Implementation
Data Collection
Flood Study
Floodplain Risk Management
Study
Floodplain Risk Management Committee
Balanced plans deal with existing, future & continuing flood risk Take a long term viewpoint consider - future development Strategies & climate change Aim to achieve long term community goals
Proposed FMP Process
Flood Management Options
Property Management Options
Response Management Options
Why DSS in Flood Mitigation?
Floodplain risk management requires a robust understanding of flood risk and a comprehensive knowledge of flood management options
But
Quick staff changeover rates&
Retiring workforce
=
Loss of heuristic and organizational knowledge&
Limited understanding of flood risk and flood management measures∴
Continually relying on external experts
Decision Support System in Flood Mitigation
• Identify, examine and explore management options for floodplain management
• Transparent process
• Structured confirmation
• Centralised repository
• Education and training
• Flexibility to adapted to suit organizational and/ orstakeholder requirements
What is a Decision Support System (DSS)?
“An informed system whose primary purpose is to provide workers with information on which to base informed decisions” (Mallach 1994)
“DSS provides support for decision makers mainly in a semi-structured and unstructured situation by bringing together human Judgement and computerised information” (Turban 2001)
“A DSS is a system that can lend support to decision makers involved in solving problems of some complexity” (Srinivasan et al 2000)
“An interactive computer based system that utilises a model to identify and draw upon relevant data in order to aid decision making” (Lemass 2004)
What is a Decision Support System (DSS)?
“An informed system whose primary purpose is to provide workers with information on which to base informed decisions” (Mallach 1994)
“DSS provides support for decision makers mainly in a semi-structured and unstructured situation by bringing together human Judgement and computerised information” (Turban 2001)
“A DSS is a system that can lend support to decision makers involved in solving problems of some complexity” (Srinivasan et al 2000)
“An interactive computer based system that utilises a model to identify and draw upon relevant data in order to aid decision making” (Lemass 2004)
Previous Applications
•Flood hazard mapping (FLOOD DSS, HAZUS etc.)
•Flood response routing (GCC, River Thames etc.)
•Water Quality (WATERCAST etc.)
•Aquatic ecological models (CAEDYM etc.)
•Water Sensitive Urban Design (MUSIC etc.)
•Forest Dynamics (SORTIE etc.)
•Soil and water models (SWIM etc.)
•...etc.
Decision Support System Application
Flood Study Understand the Flood Behaviour & What Controls it (Flood and Hazard Maps)
Management Study Understand the Local Impacts of Flooding on People, Property & Infrastructure Identify the Options Available to Manage Risk Assess, Compare & Decide on Options Determine How these Can Be Implemented
Management Plan How to Implement & Fund Options
Robust Solutions need to Consider Long Term Catchment Conditions including the Environment, Development and Climate Change.
NEED to INVOLVE COMMUNITY CONSULTATION
Decision Support System Application
Flood Study Understand the Flood Behaviour & What Controls it (Flood and Hazard Maps)
Management Study Understand the Local Impacts of Flooding on People, Property & Infrastructure Identify the Options Available to Manage Risk Assess, Compare & Decide on Options Determine How these Can Be Implemented
Management Plan How to Implement & Fund Options
Robust solutions need to consider long term catchment conditions including the environment, development and Climate change.
NEED to INVOLVE COMMUNITY CONSULTATION
The system: FLODSS
Start
Selection of management measure
Property management measures
Response management measures
Flood management measures
Constraint weighting
Select input measures
Recommendation
Constraint weighting
Select input measures
Recommendation
Investigate measures
Detailed management measure review
Help
The system: FLODSS
Step 2: Management option selection
Step 2: Management option selection
Fact sheet example
Step 3: Constraint weighting
Step 4: Recommendation
Its application: Cooma case study
400 km south west of Sydney 800m. above sea level Population of 8000 Floods in 1956, 1961, 1969, 1991 and 2007
Inundation common Limited flood warning time Erosion and sedimentation problems in the catchment
Its application: Cooma case study
FLODSS: Step 1
FLODSS: Step 2
FLODSS: Step 3
FLODSS: Step 4
Cooma Results
Limitations
The DSS can’t:
• Determine the “BEST” option• Replace the need for decision makers• Prevent the actions of a poor decision maker• Provide detailed option applicability or placement
The system is based on case-based reasoning, as a result It has been hard to quantify some constraints (i.e. Social and Political)
Plans are underway to further investigate such constraints, to increase the certainty of the system results
Conclusion
• Identify, examine and explore management options for floodplain management
• Transparent process
• Structured confirmation
• Centralised repository
• Educate and train
• Flexibility to adapted to suit organizational and/ orstakeholder requirements
