a retrospective of 20 years of ismor jd smith & mr bathe, cranfield university

The Royal Military College of Science

A Retrospective of 20 Years of A Retrospective of 20 Years of ISMOR ISMOR

JD Smith & MR Bathe, Cranfield UniversityJD Smith & MR Bathe, Cranfield University


ISMOR Retrospective

• Outline/Sources

• Themes

• Attendees

• Papers– Paper Categories

• Observations/Comments

• Repository


ISMOR Retrospective

• Review of ISMOR 1 to 19– Themes– Papers– Attendees

• 2 levels of Review • ‘Stats & Facts’

• Impressions/Ideas


ISMOR Retrospective

• Sources – Papers available from David Faddy , HVR Library

– Bound volumes of papers (ISMOR 1-10) held in Cranfield University Library at RMCS

– Personal copies of papers

– ISMOR delegate lists

– ISMOR programmes

• NONE is perfect


ISMOR ThemesTheme ISMOR

Advances in Combat Modelling 1

Quantitative and Qualitative Inputs for Combat Modelling 2

Land Air Interactions 3

Measurement and Modelling of Target Seeking and Target Location 4

The Battlefield in the 21st Century 5

Operational Research Applied to Manning, Manpower and Personnel 6

Operational Research Applied to Combat Logistics and Support 7

OR's Role in Preparing For and Supporting the War in the Gulf 8

The New Look for Defence in the Nineties 9

OR and Future International Security Operations 10

OR Applied to Command, Control, Communication and Information Systems 11

Developments in OR to Meet the Requirements of Future Operations 12

The Contribution of OR to Future Defence Planning 13

Recent Advances in Military OR 14

Is a Revolution in Analysis Required? 15

Recent Advances in Military OR with an Emphasis on OOTW 16

The Contribution of the Human and Social Sciences in the Analysis of Contemporary Operations

17

Emerging Methods in Military OR 18

Scenarios 19


ISMOR Themes/World Events 1Theme Events

Advances in Combat Modelling Cruise missiles installed in UK

Quantitative and Qualitative Inputs for Combat Modelling

Gorbachev halts Soviet missile deployment

Land Air Interactions Chernobyl Libya Raid

Measurement and Modelling of Target Seeking and Target Location

MR Missile Treaty Syrian Intervention in Beirut

The Battlefield in the 21st Century Lockerbie Intafada Resistance

Operational Research Applied to Manning, Manpower and Personnel

Berlin Wall Falls Panama

Operational Research Applied to Combat Logistics and Support

Peace Prize for Gorbachev Iraq invades Kuwait

OR's Role in Preparing For and Supporting the War in the Gulf

Gulf War I

The New Look for Defence in the Nineties

Afghan rebels in Kabul Civil War Yugoslavia

OR and Future International Security Operations

Somalia WTC Bomb


ISMOR Themes/World Events 2Theme Events

OR Applied to Command, Control, Communication and Information

Systems

Election of Pres Mandela Haiti

Developments in OR to Meet the Requirements of Future

Operations

Oklahoma Dayton Accord

The Contribution of OR to Future Defence Planning

Taliban conquer Afghanistan Cruise missile attack on Iraq

Recent Advances in Military OR Armed Rebellion Albania

Is a Revolution in Analysis Required?

Good Friday Agmt NI India/Pakistan Nuclear tests

Recent Advances in Military OR with an Emphasis on OOTW

Kosovo East Timor

Contribution of the Human and Social Sciences in the Analysis of

Contemporary Operations

Palestinian conflict intensifies

Emerging Methods in Military OR 9/11 Afghanistan

Scenarios Bali bombings Arafat house arrest


ISMOR Retrospective

• Total Papers– 600

• Total Attendees– 1830

• Nations represented– 20

(rounded for papers/attendees)


ISMOR Retrospective

• ISMOR Attendees/Paper Numbers

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20

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100

120

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11 12

13

14

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18

19

Papers Attendees

Plenary Sessionsintroduced


ISMOR RetrospectiveNationality of attendees:

UKUSCanadaDenmarkGermanyFranceItalyNetherlandsNorwayBelgium

SwitzerlandTurkeyIsraelSingaporeSwedenAustraliaSpainKoreaCroatiaCzech Republic


ISMOR Attendees

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10

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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

UK

US

Canada

Denmark

Germany

France

Italy

Netherlands

Norway

Belgium

Switzerland

Turkey

Israel

Singapore

Sweden

Australia

Spain

Korea

Croatia

Czech Republic

NATO/SHAPE


ISMOR Attendees

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10

20

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

UK

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Canada

W Eur

Others


ISMOR Attendees

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10

20

30

40

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11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

UK

US

Canada

W Eur

Others


Review of ISMOR Papers Analysis by Nationality of Papers

0

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

UKUSCdaW EurOthers


Review of ISMOR Papers Analysis by Nationality

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5

10

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11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

UKUSCdaW EurOthers


Review of ISMOR Papers

• ISMOR Paper Categories– Model Design

– Hard OA

– Soft OA

– Study Descriptions

– V&V

– Human Factors

– Mathematical Approaches

– C2



• ISMOR Paper Categories– General categorization– Limitations

• Interpretation

• Trends rather than absolutes

• Possibly papers in more than one category

• No ‘others’ category



• Subject by year (graph)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Model Design Hard OA Soft OA

Study Descriptions V&V Human Factors

Mathematical Approaches C2




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Model Design Study Descriptions




0

2

4

6

8

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Human Factors Mathematical Approaches C2




02468

10121416

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Hard OA Soft OA V&V



• Observations – Study descriptions/reports in the majority

• Includes activity descriptions

– Hard OA/Soft OA balance• Hard OA predominates but soft usually included

– Human Factors • Consistent inclusion

– Mathematical Methods• Appeared in early years (low level)

• Reappeared recently



• Observations– V&V rare– C2 continuing strand– Some papers dated/contextual

• Eg – 2 ISMOR

• Value of Tactical Nuclear Weapons

– Gulf War 1


ISMOR Year?• An approach to modelling obstruction effects.• Human factors in operational testing.• Multivariable control theory for Lanchester type models.• The importance of considering information errors in combat modelling.• Modelling subjective decision-making.• Experiments with the battlefield engagement simulator and trainer.• An analysis of tank attributes..• Simulating the command,control and subordinate systems.• The air threat to anti-tank helicopters.• On model assumptions and inputs for the analysis of reactive defense

options.• Concepts for a tactical fire control decision aid.• Psycho1ogical stress and performance Component

parts,processes,principles and structures of an anatomy of military combat• Mathematical modelling of the tank gunners target tracking ability and it's

contribution to the effectiveness of the fire.


ISMOR Year?• An approach to modelling obstruction effects.• Human factors in operational testing.• Multivariable control theory for Lanchester type models.• The importance of considering information errors in combat modelling.• Modelling subjective decision-making.• Experiments with the battlefield engagement simulator and trainer.• An analysis of tank attributes..• Simulating the command,control and subordinate systems.• The air threat to anti-tank helicopters.• On model assumptions and inputs for the analysis of reactive defense

options.• Concepts for a tactical fire control decision aid.• Psycho1ogical stress and performance Component

parts,processes,principles and structures of an anatomy of military combat• Mathematical modelling of the tank gunners target tracking ability and it's

contribution to the effectiveness of the fire.

1985


ISMOR Year (2)• The relationship between battle intensity and disease rates among the marine

corps combat and support units.• Automated movement planning.• Operational research in the field.• A geopolitical database for policy planning and operations in a new world order.• Identifying wartime manpower requirements through the use of computer

simulation.• Scenarios-foundation for combat developments.• Influence of digital terrain resolution on automated route selection.• The relevance of quick response tools to air defence in out-of-area operations.• A decision oriented approach to design and development.• Developing maritime scenarios.• Global force capability requirements for US defense planning.• Modelling complex wartime medical systems.• Operations research and improved estimation of medical support requirements.• Modelling the Canadian total force.• Threat related attrition system.• RAF strike command wargaming in support of training and planning.


ISMOR Year (2)• The relationship between battle intensity and disease rates among the marine

corps combat and support units.• Automated movement planning.• Operational research in the field.• A geopolitical database for policy planning and operations in a new world order.• Identifying wartime manpower requirements through the use of computer

simulation.• Scenarios-foundation for combat developments.• Influence of digital terrain resolution on automated route selection.• The relevance of quick response tools to air defence in out-of-area operations.• A decision oriented approach to design and development.• Developing maritime scenarios.• Global force capability requirements for US defense planning.• Modelling complex wartime medical systems.• Operations research and improved estimation of medical support requirements.• Modelling the Canadian total force.• Threat related attrition system.• RAF strike command wargaming in support of training and planning.

1992


ISMOR Retrospective: 1984

The first ISMOR included papers on:

• Field Trials and Modelling (D Rowland)

• Generalised Terrain Modelling Using Graphics (A S & A A M Douglas)

• Automated Decision Making in Combat Models (L F Jones)

• Human Factor Performance in Combat Modelling (K Ellis & S Labuc)


A View on Combat Modelling From The First ISMOR

• Generalise Lanchester theory to provide the formal basis for combat theory

• Concentrate on the parity condition• Exploit the practical roles of combat theory, which are:

– those which are wholly internal to the model world

– those which in some way effect a transition between the model world and the real world

– those which directly relate to the real world in the sense that they could be used as they stand in forming the ultimate analytical judgement .


A View on Combat Modelling From The First ISMOR (continued)

• Sustain the manipulation of symbols• Examine extreme cases• Make an early appreciation of numerical sensitivities• Collect the results from controlled modelling as

contributions to theory• Develop combat theory to take advantage of the

strides in computer technology

Extracted from “Combat Modelling in Defence Studies” by W T Lord


Archive of ISMOR Papers

• Soft copies of past ISMOR papers– MoD funded– Dstl Knowledge Services

• Scanned all ISMOR documents available• Hardcopy still available

– All in pdf format– Available for retrospective (just!)

• Plan for availability through UK OR Society website & Cranfield University library– Initially an index of titles

• available to order subject to approval

– Later fully electronic

a retrospective of 20 years of ismor jd smith & mr bathe, cranfield university

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