a post-carbon future: practical solutions to global warming and the energy crisis

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Practical Solutions to Global Warming and the Energy Crisis

Guy Dauncey

The Post-Carbon Future


Question:


We have been walking on two feet for six million years


Each generationhas successfully passed on

the wisdom in its genes and its knowledge.


Do you think future humans will do the same,

so that humans will be living and thriving on Planet Earth in a million years time?


YES NO“In a million years time”


YES NO


THE HUMAN JOURNEY


We’ve come a long way from this….


to this….


We live on the edge of one of 100 billion galaxies


We take almost all our energy from the Sun


8 minutes and 19 seconds ago,

the light and heat

we are seeing and feeling now

was on the surface of the Sun.


The Sun sends the energy that trees absorb and store


800,000 years ago, we discovered how to

make fire.


For 800,000 years, we used

firewood as our

primary source of energy.


Then we discovered coal…


Using coal, we started the industrial revolution


Then we discovered oil…


and natural gas…


Whether it’s coal, oil or gas, it’s all ancient fossilized solar energy,

stored for 100 million years.


..but the Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.


20,000 years

is the Age of Fossil Fuels

This10,000 years past

10,000 years future


Survey of petroleum geologistsOctober 2008

61% think already, or within ten years


International Energy Agency

Senior IEA official:

“The IEA has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering

panic buying.”

Terry Macalister, Guardian UK Nov 9 2009


Alberta’s oil sands…Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


Only producing 1.2 million barrels a day.We consume 84 million barrels a day.


Out of gas - Chongquin, China


If we don’t prepare….


And then there’s climate change…


In 200 years, we are burning

most of that ancient solar energy… and then it’s gone.


As we burn the fossil fuels…


As we burn this ancient solar energy…




we release its carbon into the atmosphere.




CO2




CO2CO2




CO2 CO2CO2




CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2




CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second


Deutsche Bank Near Madison Square Garden,

New York

www.dbcca.com

We have added

3.6 trillion tonnes of heat-trapping

greenhouse gases to our atmosphere.

Rising by 1,000 tonnes every second.

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Iqoncept Dreamstime.com


Smithore Dreamstime.com


Tatyana Chernyak Dreamstime.com


We are being besieged with negativity, and disbelief in our future.


It’s all about sustainability,

leadership…

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Antonia Dreamstime.com

… and our grandchildren


The Renaissance was the launch padfor the Scientific Revolution

Wikimedia


Wikimedia

The Scientific Revolution was the launch padfor the Industrial Revolution


The Industrial Age becomes the launch-pad

for the Solar Age.


The incredible energy of fossil fuels has enabled us to build the scientific and technological capital

we need to advance beyond fossil fuels….

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture

…into the Solar Age.


A 100% Shift to Renewable

Energy

Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com


Wood Solar Fossil Solar Solar Solar

Wikimedia


You are the midwives

of the Solar Revolution


100% Renewable

Energy

What does It look like?

Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com


1. Electricity


Solar PV40% growth pa

50-80 cents/kWh - and fallingGlobal Potential: Enormous



Solar PV in Germany


Solar Stadium, Taiwan


Dow’s Solar Shingles


Thin film solar


Thin film solar production


Price per Watt: 1985 = $10. 2010 = $4.

The module represents 50-60% of the total installed cost of a solar PV system


Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials, Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008


Solar market penetration


Solar Millennium AG

Solar thermal energy


The Sun radiates almost 1000 times more energy onto the Earth’s deserts

than humankind uses.


Large square 254 sq km, if all solar thermal= current world electricity use

Small square 110 sq km = current European Union usewww.trecers.org


Siemens AG


2006 prediction for 2009:


2009 reality:

www.wwindea.org


2007: 173 TWh2009: 340 TWh

Global technical potential: 410,000 TWh= 12 x global electricity needs



Proposed Green Power Corridors

Corporate Knights, Nov 2006


Europe’s geothermal resources at 5 km deep:

1 km3 of hot granite delivers 10 MW for 20 years

(900 TWh/year)

Available resource:125,000 km3

= 112,500,000 TWh/year

Spread over 1,000 years= 112,500 TWh/year

European energy use = 13,000 TWh/year

= 10 times Europe’s energy use

Tying it Together: The Distributed Grid

Bonneville Power Administration, WA



Smart Metering

20% reduction

Time of Use Metering

12% reduction


GermCost of electricity in Germany: 32 cents kWhOntario: 4 - 9 cents kWh


Efficiency+ smart metering+ wind energy+ solar PV+ solar thermal+ hydropower+ geothermal power+ tidal & wave power+ biomass power+ smart grid+ new storage technologies+ gradually phased out nuclear power

= 100% zero-carbon electricity

2. Transport without Oil


Ancient Technology - Feet

Toronto Walking School BusToronto Walking School Bus


Nanjing pedestrian street, Shanghai


Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, Korea


Cisco Systems


Cycling: 36% of all commute trips in Copenhagen are by bike. Goal is 50% by 2015.


San Francisco - safe protected bike lane


Electric bikes…. 1 cent per 20 km


Madsen urban utility bike ($1300)+ eZee motor and battery ($1300)

E-Biking with the whole family…


E-Zip electric bike - $350 from Walmart30 km range


Public Transit


Hasselt, Belgium: Free Transitincluded in city taxes

Since 1996, 11-fold increase in ridership

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net


Philly CarShare50,000 people share

270 vehicles

City reduced its fleet by 330 vehicles

See


Ride sharing…


Nissan Leaf EV. $25 - $30,000 Coming in 2011

Running cost under $10/week, plus $150/month battery lease.

Electric Vehicles


RWE Mobility.com

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com CalCars.org


Louis Palmer and his Solar Taxi33,000 km around the world

$8 a week running cost


Walking+ cycling+ transit+ rail and light rail+ videoconferencing+ ridesharing+ carsharing+ electric vehicles+ plug-in hybrid electric vehicles+ biofuel capacity+ vehicle efficiency increase+ road pricing

= 100% zero carbon personal transport


Siemens AG


Smith Electric Trucks

www.smithelectricvehicles.com


Biofuel being grown from algae


Replacing aviation fuel with biofuel

New Scientist, Sept 2008


Hypothetical large scale algae farm


Heat: can we generate it without fossil fuels?


Passive House,Frankfurt, Germany

Uses 95% less energy


Stockholm uses heat from treated sewage effluent

to provide hot water and heating to 80,000 apartments

- Stephen Salter, 2007


Pre-insulated piping used to heat homes and commercial buildings in Scandinavia.

Delivers hot water at 200o C to customers up to 23 km away.

Photo and text by Jayson Antonoff


Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED)

Sutton, London, UK

Energy Centre


The Energy Centre

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year

Community solar heat panels

Solar hot waterpanels



800 solar hot water

panels on the garages

90% of residential space heating needs is met by

stored solar thermal energy (40-50oC)


Dockside Green, Victoria

15 acres, holistic design, all LEED Platinum55% less energy than model building code

www.docksidegreen.com


Pearl River Tower

Guangzhou, China


Heat Exchange

A heat exchange floor being laid

Air-sourceGround-sourceWater-sourceSewer-source

Ice-Source


Geothermal Radial DrillingEuropean geo-drilling technique

http://geothermic.tracto-technik.com


Ice-Source Heat

Richmond Olympic Skating Oval


Solar hot water


CSIRO


Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany

Sor

ce:

Sol

vis


Solar thermal + Solar PV + Skylights


Wood Pellets Stove


= wood pellet plants


LondonUse of infrared heat leakage mapping

to identify priorities for energy retrofitting.


www.hotmapping.co.uk


The Road to Success


GussingGussing


GussingPopulation 8,000

Small, isolated, forested. 1988, one of the poorest regions in Austria

Few local jobs. 70% of local people worked in Vienna (160 km) or Graz (90 km)

$8 million annual bill for fuel and energy

Early 1990s, policy proposal calling for the complete abandonment of all fossil-fuel-based energy


Gussing

Since 1995, they have achieved a

93% transition off fossil fuels.

= 93% reduction in their carbon footprint.


Heat, electricity and fuel

from forest biomass, corn, waste cooking

oil, & solar.

Continuous biomass gasification of wood


Solar-biomass plant


Biomass electrical power plant4500 kW long distance heat and 2000 kW electricity

from 1760 kg of wood per hour.


Biodiesel from canola,

sunflowers, waste cooking oils, and fats


Gussing School100 m2 solar thermal plant saves 15,000 kWh/year.

10 kW Solar PV plant generates 9,000 kWh/year. Annual income = approx. Euros 5,400.


Long distance heat plant Burns sawdust and chopped forest timberDrying kiln for timber, heat for 200 homes

+ 40 large buildings


594 kW solar and biomass plant39 customers

2.5 kilometres heat network850,000 kWh heat per year


Long distance heat supply41 customers600 kW boiler

2.5 kilometres heat supply


Since 199527 new decentralized power plants60 new companies, 1,200 new jobs

Ecotourism brought 30,000 visitors in 2007

Biomass heat and power facility


Gussing’s organizational centre:

European Centre for Renewable Energy

5 Corporate Divisions:

1. Education, Solar School2. Installation3. Energy Self-Sufficient Region4. Zero Emission Power Plants5. Energy Efficiency


EAR - Energy Autarkic Region

EAR is a proven concept which not only conserves valuable energy, but also re-injects a high proportion of investment into the local economy.

It keeps money in the local area, creates new jobs, and greatly reduces emissions.


bioenergy.asu.edu

Bioenergy


Bioenergy Method ResultAlgae

Animal wastes

Crops

Crop wastes

Food wastes

Garbage

Landfill gas

Sawdust

Seaweed

Sewage sludge

Switchgrass

Used oils

Wood wastes

Woody plants

Anaerobic digestion

Biogas collection

Combustion

Crush, pulp and purify

Enzymatic digestion

Fermentation

Photobioreaction

Liquid pyrolysis

Depolymerization

Thermal gasification

Transesterification

Biobutanol

Biochar

Biocrude

Biodiesel

Bioethanol

Biogas

Electricity

Heat

Hydrogen

Bioplastics


What’s needed to accelerate progress?

1.A Compelling Vision

• Convey what Sault will look and feel like in the future.

• Alternative Energy Capital, climate action, clean tech, peak oil resilience, and the transition to a sustainable future all come together in a shared vision.

• Use the arts, prose, performance.



2. A Strategic Plan

• A coordinated strategy for the City, businesses and community entities, to get everyone aligned.

• Ontario’s Green Energy Act creates ideal foundation• Need to lobby Ottawa to keep ecoEnergy

• Host of frustrating barriers to overcome

• 10 Sectoral working groups, to work on all the core dimensions - Chicago, Whistler.

• Full time Director of Sustainability.



3. Community engagement

• Households, schools, businesses, service clubs.

• Annual awards and celebrations for the “greenest home”, “greenest business”, “greenest block”, “greenest school”.


This is a great opportunity


to build a sustainable future


Solutions for Individuals Champions Communities Businesses Farmers Transport Energy Companies Governments Developing Nations Global


You are the midwives

of the Solar Revolution


Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

www.theclimatechallenge.ca

a post-carbon future: practical solutions to global warming and the energy crisis

Technology

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