a positive vision of a sustainable future

Guy Dauncey 2014Guy Dauncey 2014www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

A Positive Vision of aSustainable Future

Guy Dauncey, March 2014

We have come a long way from this….

To this….

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


but…


Smithore Dreamstime.com

We have also come to this…


GDP =GrossDepletion of the

Planet


Gross Depletion of the Planet

+ Yield - Costs= Profit


Gross Depletion of the Planet


CO2

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com


Liquefied Natural Gas - also a Fossil Fuel


As we burn the fossil fuels…


CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

The Climate Emergency

The last time the world was 3°C warmer

the sea level was 25 metres higher

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net


Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves


All of this must remain in the ground

Garth Lenz

We have also come to this…


And this…

And this…

The power of our vision

must be stronger than

the power of our fears


“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”

― Eleanor Roosevelt


"Dreams are extremely important. You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”

- George Lucas

Istanbul,Turkey


So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?

A Beautiful Green FutureA Cooperative Economy

Harmony with Nature

Cultural

Social

• Green Business• Values-Based Banking• Basic Income vs Poverty• Debt Solutions• Local Currencies• A State Bank of BC• Strong Local Economies• Microcredit + more…

• 100% Renewable Energy• Green Transportation• Access to Nature• Restored Creeks• Compassion to Animals• Clean Air & Water• Lighter Consumer Footprint• Zero Waste + more…

• Affordable Housing• Affordable Education• Green Homes and Buildings• Affordable Healthcare & Dental• Real Neighbourhoods• Living Streets• A Sharing Economy• A Child-Friendly World + more…

• Beauty, Thriving Arts• Strong First Nations• Strong LGBT Community• Local Food• Rich Multicultural Realm• Meaningful Vision of the Future• Thriving Political Participation• High Social Change Engagement


Seven Themes1: A Cooperative Economy

2: Affordable Housing

3: The Return of Nature

4: Food without Chemicals

5: Energy without Fossil Fuels

6: Our Homes and Neighbourhoods

7: How Do We Make It Happen?


1: A CooperativeEconomy

Businesses flourishing in harmony with other businesses, and with workers,

community, nature and the world.

The Community

Economyin 2032

Every Town or City has a Mutual Support Business Network

Businesses pay a 0.4% levy on sales to mutual support and cooperation.

Emilia Romagna, Italy

There are half a million businesses and coops in the region, which pay a 0.4% levy on sales to local inter-business organizations.

In return, they receive support with financing, training, research, development strategies and export efforts.

Emilia Romagna, Italy• Population 4.4 million• $$$, top ten European regions• 32% self-employed• 76% work in small • Business with 4-5 workers• Italy’s 4th largest exporter• 400,000 enterprises• 15,000 cooperatives• Strong tradition of reciprocity, regional economy mutual support system, financed by a 0.4% levy on sales • High density of banks• Regional credit system with close ties to local enterprises• Lowest unemployment• Highest rate of citizen satisfaction in Italy


Cooperatives have set up their own Mutual Support Networks

Local Businessesare making

Wage Differential Reduction Pledges

from 30:1 to 10:1


Many businesses have become Benefit Corporations


Most businesses have Women Directors on the Board

“Companies with more Women Board Directors experience higher financial performance,

according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”


All businesses are incentivized to acquire

Green Business Certification


Youth Enterprise Initiatives flourish


A publicly-owned State Bank

has been established

Creates new creditHolds public taxes and feesTargets strategic investmentsClearing bank for other banksProfits recycled, public benefit

Modeled on The Bank of North Dakota


Banks and credit unions have embraced Values-Based Banking

The banks in the Global Alliance for Banking on Values have assets that exceed $60 billion, and touch the lives of

10 million people in 25 countries.


All banks and credit unions provide Debt Circles


Many people have joined an interest-free JAK Bank


WIR Inter-Business Banking is giving businesses credit when they need it


Community Currencies are flourishing


Time-banking is flourishing

VANCOUVER


Micro-Lending is flourishing


Basic Income for allhas been established

A Basic Income is an income unconditionally guaranteed to all on an individual basis, without means test or work requirement.


The Local Food Economyis flourishing

www.solefoodfarms.com


Student Debt problems have been solved


The Oregon Solution: Pay It Forward

The Sharing Economy is thriving


A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…


2: Affordable Housing


Average Single Family Home: $346,000

46% increase since 2005

Parksville/Qualicum


$346,000

Parksville/Qualicum

25 year mortgage @ 8.75%

5 year @ 4%


Possible Affordability Initiatives

Inclusionary ZoningDensity BonusingSecondary SuitesInfill DevelopmentDemolition Control


$$ GATHERING THE MONEY $$•Progressively increasing tax on real estate sales over $2 million

•15% sales tax on properties bought through offshore companies

•Annual levy on properties registered offshore for tax reasons

•Escalating tax on empty properties to stop developers from sitting on them


A Community Land Trustwhich buys land for affordable housing

Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi


In rental apartmentsTenants’ Stewardship Councils have the first right of purchase


Communal Renting has been legalized for more than five people


Communal ownership has become common


Car-Free Laneway Micro-Housing has become common


Rooftop Housingis the new cool

thing for younger people.


Micro-homes

502 Alexander StVancouver

280 sq ft

12 units, base cost $85,000 each

CMHC


Micro-Homes Village Zone on temporarily vacant land


3: The Return of Nature


Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini, New York

Turning dull concrete schoolyards…


into Green Schoolyards


Semiahmoo Transit StationSurrey, BC, Canada

Bringing greenery into our towns and cities…


www.greenovergrey.com


Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna


Musee du Quai Branly, ParisPatrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc


Restoring urban creeks and streams


Rainwater Storage


4: Organic Food for All


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

Food imported to Vancouver Island:

95%

Good farmlandsits empty

Young peoplewant to farm

There are 7,702 hectares in the Alberni Valley ALR. Only 3,171 hectares are actively farmed.

4,531 hectares are not being farmed.

Only 239 hectares are being used for vegetables, berries, grapes and other

horticultural food crops. = 3% of the farmland.

The valley produces between 5% and 11% of the food consumed locally.

Using small-scale intensive organic horticulture, farmers can earn to earn up to $25,000 an acre, grossing up to $80,000 a

year of profit per small farm.

Throughout the world, in every culture, farmers have lived in small farm villages

Imagine…

Yarrow Ecovillage and Farm, Yale, BC

Farm Villages

100 Hectare FarmAnywhere, BC

100 Hectare FarmAnywhere, BC Farm

Village

100 Hectare FarmAnywhere, BC Farm Village

Cost of land: $100,000?Shared by 5 families = $20,000 each

Cost per small starter self-built house: $150,000

100 Hectare FarmAnywhere, BC

Four levels of protection, to ensure that the Zone is not abused:1.New Community Farm Zone2.A Covenant attached to the land3.Strata Council Farm Fees4.A Registered Housing Agreement

Alberni Valley Farmland4,531 hectares =

possible 50 Farm villages

LAND OWNERSHIP MODELS(a) Strata-title, owned by the new farmers(b) A Community Land Trust owns the land, the farmers own their houses

Land zoned agricultural should also carry a requirement applying to future

owners from the time of purchase, that at least

10% of the land be used to grow food …

or be leased to someone who will grow food.



5: Energy without Fossil Fuels


Winter: -10oC outside, no heat needed insideSummer: 35oC outside, only 26oC inside

The Passive House


Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com


Construction costs: 4.3% more per square foot


Monthly net energy savings more than the increased mortgage


Air Source Solar Heat


Ground-Source Solar Heat


Water-Source Solar Heat


Solar Hot Water

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture

Solar PV

Guy Dauncey 2014Guy Dauncey 2014www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2013

100,000GW in 2012

Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000


4 kW PV System$16,000 in Victoria

$14,000 if 5 houses together4,400 kWh year



Neolithic Era

Ancient Egypt

Roman Empire

Islamic Golden Age

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

The Age of Oil……………………………………….

The last 10,000 years


The last 10,000 years

...................................................

What happens here,when we stop using oil?


A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years


A billion years

The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and get cheaper.

Transportation without Fossil Fuels

Toronto Walking School Bus

Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org

Cycling

In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle

Granville Street BridgeVancouver’s Future

City Bike Sharing

Electric Bikes

Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

Transit

100% Electric Buses

Free transit, paid in city taxesFrom 1996-2006 ridership increased

from 1,000 to 12,600 riders a dayPayment is now $1 per ride.

Hasselt, Belgium

Real-time electronic bus stops

Bus Shelter in Taiwan

Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment

OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Bus Rapid Transit in Curitiba, Brazil

Bus Rapid Transit in Delhi

Light Rail Transitwww.islandtransformations.org

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric + Green Electricity = No Climate Impact

See

Victoria Carshare Coop650 members share 23 vehicles

www.victoriacarshare.ca

Car Sharing

Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month


Chevy Volt Hybrid Gas Electric Car2,500 km on one tank of gas

Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012 Diesel plug-in hybrid 75 km battery range

0.9 litres/100 km 312 mpg

In France: Renault Twizy EV2 seats, 100 km range

80 kph, 3.5 hours recharge$9,700 + $60/month battery lease

Top

Hiroko EV


Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range


Smart Electric – 135 km range

Mitsubishi MiEV – 150 km range


Toyota RAV4 EV - 148 km range

Tesla Model-X: 300-400 km range

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a month

Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month

The Cost of Power for Electric Cars

EV Bargain!!10 times cheaper

to run!

Solar RoadwaysIn US, 3 x total electricity demand

www.solarroadways.com


No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies

6: Our Homes and Neighbourhoods


Proyecto Urbano Integral, Medellin, ColombiaGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


Pedestrian PlazaIn Buenos Aires,

Argentina


Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea

Before and After


Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea


The HighlineConverted Railway,

New York


London: a Garden Bridge across the ThamesThomas Heatherwick



Portland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org


Creekside Commons Cohousing, Courtenay


A Happy, Resilient Future

More walking, biking, bus, carsharing

Lower transport costs

More urban food gardens Cheaper and healthier eating

Innovative affordable housing Lower housing costs

Stronger neighbourhoods More friends, more real community

More urban greenery More inner space, and peace

Stronger community economy More financial security

Green, energy-efficient homes Lower energy costs

No more fossil fuels Clean air, clear sky, quiet city

More civic engagement Healthier political realm

Basic Income Less poverty, fear and homelessness

More arts, music and neighbourhood celebration

More friends, more happiness, more love


7: How Do We Make It Happen?

Community engagement


Engaging Young People

www.leadingchangenetwork.com


Electronic ballotsVoting aged reduced to 16

Transferable Voting for City Hall$100 tax credit for voting


Design the Future Community Meetings


A Green, Sustainable Future is not an ‘Option’

It is an Urgent Necessity

Special Price

$5


D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?

Where Do We Come From? What Are We?

Where Are We Going??


The Universe has taken

13 billion years

to create us


Number of stars in the Universe

1024: 1 trillion trillion


Stars in the Universe1024: 1 trillion trillion

Atoms in your body1027: 1,000 trillion trillion


Number of stars in our galaxy

100 trillion


Number of synapses in your brain

100 trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole


100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars


We are amazing… and we are all conscious


We have free will We can make a difference

It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com


This is about us, our planet,our children and our future.


www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey


Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

a positive vision of a sustainable future

Education

fossil fuels guy dauncey

sustainable future guy

co2 co2 co2 co2 co2

potential co2

metres higher

gross depletion

rise http

garth lenz